Green Line LRT - $4.6 Billion Project

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

It's really unfortunate that the construction expert dude was forced out. He seemed to know what he was talking about and didn't sugarcoat things. I'm pretty sure he said it would cost $7.7 billion to do this right and nothing I've seen since then makes his estimate look wrong. With the huge downturn we might be able to get some good deals and could save hundreds of millions of dollars. I'd rather spend the extra money and do this right than spend $5+ billion on a project that benefits very few.

It’s going to cost a lot more than $7.7 billion to build out North and South or are you just talking North? If we’ve learned anything, it’s the Green Line estimates have been grossly lowballed.

Reading the Green line financing document:

Phase 1 is now budgeted to cost $5.5 billion dollars ($640 million in financing costs + $4.9 billion in construction costs).

Over $500 million has already been spent on the Green Line (a new arena’s worth of paper shuffling).

Capital spending ends in 2028, I’m assuming the EPC and Commissioning of Phase 1 is going to be 7 years. Anyone seen a Phase 1 schedule? Any bets on when Phase 1 is opened to the public to ride on?

A reminder of how the City is funding its portion of the project, by borrowing against future property tax room out to 2044. There’s no budget money for phase 2 expansion regardless of how we build stage 1 (i.e. cross the bow or not to cross the bow). But hey, why worry we don’t have a budget for phase 2 expansion, just get on with it and hope the piecemeal expansion of 15 stations and 26 km of track happens before we are all dead. Hint: Maybe we should build one good line now in Phase 1!

Total funding for the Stage 1 Program is $5,544 million from all sources (2015-2044), including $4,903 million for capital and $639.9 million for financing costs, with contributions from The City ($2,200 million), the Government of Alberta ($1,702 million) and Government of Canada ($1,640 million) across multiple grant programs.

As of 2020 April 30, the actual Program spend year-to-date is $19.1 million and the cumulative Program spend is $543.8 million. Total Program commitments as of 2020 April 30 are $673.7 million. The budget currently approved is $803.9 million.

The City of Calgary approved up to $2,200 million (or up to $75.7 million per year) of property tax dollars for funding the Stage 1 Program, including the:
1. 2013 tax room (2015-2044) - $1,560 million (or $52 million per year for 30 years)
2. 2017 tax room (2018-2044) - $640 million (or $23.7 million per year for 27 years)
The City is solely responsible for any financing costs associated with the Program.

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=131783

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=131780

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by outoftheice

According to the information provided to Council at the Green Line Committee meeting, the 16th Ave station will be the third busiest on stage 1 of the Green Line and one of the busiest LRT stations outside of the downtown core on either the Red, Blue or Green Lines. If that is "basically useless" how would you describe the majority of Calgary's LRT stations?

"According to the information" - let's not pretend this is some highly accurate scientific analysis, it's all just self reinforcing studies based on previous studies, for the purpose of "proving" the business case. Any number of poor assumptions or data could skew the end result heavily.

Which document references this? Being one of the busiest stations on the Green Line is not surprising and just as much shows how poor the rest of the line's stations ridership will be. It is just one station (along with 9th) that will have the highest marginal cost per rider, as well as permanently ruining Centre St. Perhaps pointless is too strong, but the costs (both financial and physical) do not justify the benefit.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by jawagord

It’s going to cost a lot more than $7.7 billion to build out North and South or are you just talking North? If we’ve learned anything, it’s the Green Line estimates have been grossly lowballed.

Reading the Green line financing document:

Phase 1 is now budgeted to cost $5.5 billion dollars ($640 million in financing costs + $4.9 billion in construction costs).

Over $500 million has already been spent on the Green Line (a new arena’s worth of paper shuffling).

Capital spending ends in 2028, I’m assuming the EPC and Commissioning of Phase 1 is going to be 7 years. Anyone seen a Phase 1 schedule? Any bets on when Phase 1 is opened to the public to ride on?

A reminder of how the City is funding its portion of the project, by borrowing against future property tax room out to 2044. There’s no budget money for phase 2 expansion regardless of how we build stage 1 (i.e. cross the bow or not to cross the bow). But hey, why worry we don’t have a budget for phase 2 expansion, just get on with it and hope the piecemeal expansion of 15 stations and 26 km of track happens before we are all dead. Hint: Maybe we should build one good line now in Phase 1!

Total funding for the Stage 1 Program is $5,544 million from all sources (2015-2044), including $4,903 million for capital and $639.9 million for financing costs, with contributions from The City ($2,200 million), the Government of Alberta ($1,702 million) and Government of Canada ($1,640 million) across multiple grant programs.

As of 2020 April 30, the actual Program spend year-to-date is $19.1 million and the cumulative Program spend is $543.8 million. Total Program commitments as of 2020 April 30 are $673.7 million. The budget currently approved is $803.9 million.

The City of Calgary approved up to $2,200 million (or up to $75.7 million per year) of property tax dollars for funding the Stage 1 Program, including the:
1. 2013 tax room (2015-2044) - $1,560 million (or $52 million per year for 30 years)
2. 2017 tax room (2018-2044) - $640 million (or $23.7 million per year for 27 years)
The City is solely responsible for any financing costs associated with the Program.

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=131783

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=131780

The standard dishonest response has always been "this was always the plan, it was always going to cost this much". This bait and switch allows the most optimistic estimates or numbers to be used at any point, and then when it turns out they were optimistic or wrong, it will be said any previous claim of whatever number never existed.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by milomilo

And once again, that's basically the point. The section north of the river is useless, and for that reason the money should be spent on a part of the line that actually provides benefit.

It isn't a benefit for radial trips for downtown from further north when the line ends at 16th Ave. It is beneficial for Green Line to Orange Max and Orange Max to Green Line. From your past postings I assume you see little utility in Orange Max, so therefor little benefit from this connectivity, but that doesn't mean that there is little benefit.

[CTrainDude]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

It isn't a benefit for radial trips for downtown from further north when the line ends at 16th Ave. It is beneficial for Green Line to Orange Max and Orange Max to Green Line. From your past postings I assume you see little utility in Orange Max, so therefor little benefit from this connectivity, but that doesn't mean that there is little benefit.

That’s really the big piece that people miss with 16th Avenue station - of course there’s not a ton of transfers from North buses, but MAX Orange is probably the busiest MAX route in the system, with frequent overloads before COVID. Those people are today transferring to/from buses at Centre St, but now can make a transfer to a much more frequent train.

[lucx]

It’s perfectly valid to disagree with the stub portion to 16 Ave. But I’ve lost track of who’s against the bridge, wants a tunnel under Crescent Heights, against North Central, or against the whole line.

Tunneling under the river is basically off the table so:

- Tunneling under Crescent Height will require a bridge whether it’s this stage or in the future.
- There won’t be $8 billion+ for a tunnel north of 16 Ave. This portion will be surface.
- If the North gets as a separate LRT it will be surface through Crescent Height on the Centre Street Bridge. The existing bridge is too narrow so there will be a new bridge built for pedestrians. I don’t think the city will accept 80 metre stations due to short downtown blocks. There may be a tunnel portal in Chinatown and closures of 2 Ave, 3 Ave or both.

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by CTrainDude

That’s really the big piece that people miss with 16th Avenue station - of course there’s not a ton of transfers from North buses, but MAX Orange is probably the busiest MAX route in the system, with frequent overloads before COVID. Those people are today transferring to/from buses at Centre St, but now can make a transfer to a much more frequent train.

Orange line riders can already connect to LRT at Brentwood, Saddletown and Rundle stations. Can’t see many from the NE preferring to transfer at 16 ave when they have Rundle. But maybe a longer bus ride and short LRT ride is more preferable?

http://www.calgarytransit.com/sites/default/files/route/303_mo_june24_2019.pdf

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

It isn't a benefit for radial trips for downtown from further north when the line ends at 16th Ave. It is beneficial for Green Line to Orange Max and Orange Max to Green Line. From your past postings I assume you see little utility in Orange Max, so therefor little benefit from this connectivity, but that doesn't mean that there is little benefit.

I think Max Orange is fine, but as jawagord says there isn't good reason to think there will be substantial numbers making that transfer either. My anecdotal observation is that Max Orange only has meaningful ridership when SAIT is in class.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by CTrainDude

That’s really the big piece that people miss with 16th Avenue station - of course there’s not a ton of transfers from North buses, but MAX Orange is probably the busiest MAX route in the system, with frequent overloads before COVID. Those people are today transferring to/from buses at Centre St, but now can make a transfer to a much more frequent train.

That's pretty brutal, considering it really isn't that busy considering the frequency and it was the MAX line that got the least investment and is furthest away (as in, it isn't at all) from being actual BRT.

COVID has really screwed things IRT to observing the ridership potential of the MAX lines. I was hoping to see building ridership and then following improvements in frequency, but it'll be back to square one with determining how busy the lines will be.

Do we have any ridership numbers for the MAX lines broken out?

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by jawagord

Over $500 million has already been spent on the Green Line (a new arena’s worth of paper shuffling).

As of 2020 April 30, the actual Program spend year-to-date is $19.1 million and the cumulative Program spend is $543.8 million. Total Program commitments as of 2020 April 30 are $673.7 million. The budget currently approved is $803.9 million.

Is there a breakdown anywhere that lists exactly what we've spent $543.8 million on so far? I know there's been utility relocations but I thought the S.E. leg required minimal property acquisition. If they're buying up a ton of property in the north what are they buying and how much have they paid already?

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by outoftheice

This is why we saw at Monday's committee meeting both the Crescent Heights Community Association and the Crescent Heights Business Improvement Area come out in support of the Centre St surface running alignment.

With some conditions, such as financial support for the businesses that will be affected by construction, replacing lost parking, limiting new buildings to no higher than six floors and protecting the existing low-density neighborhoods.

So I'm okay with building a train designed with the communities it passes through in mind because the drivers it inconveniences will eventually be able to hop on the train and stop driving anyways.

Terry Wong who often speaks on behalf of Chinatown at Council has noted that many of their customers currently use Centre Street and many drivers will simply go somewhere else that's easier to access, and the businesses may not survive long enough for the train to go farther north.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

Is there a breakdown anywhere that lists exactly what we've spent $543.8 million on so far? I know there's been utility relocations but I thought the S.E. leg required minimal property acquisition. If they're buying up a ton of property in the north what are they buying and how much have they paid already?

The latest report doesn't break down the money spent so far but it does break the entire budget down to general areas:



I'd expect most of the spending so far to be in the Enabling Works, Real Estate and Program (planning, designing?). And those figures for Real Estate spending seem high given the talk that the City already owned most of the land needed for the SE.

And I haven't seen any indication the City has even begun acquiring property north of 16th Avenue. If the SE is more than $200M, NC might be $500M or more.

[outoftheice]

Segment 1 real estate cost is high because of the land that had to be acquired from CP and CN right-of-ways. The City has no power of expropriation over the railroads to there's no choice but to pay the price they ask (which also included the expedited closure of the surface rail crossing between Inglewood and Ramsay). The high price of land acquisition along a railroad right-of-way is also one of the things that helped drive the final nail through the Nose Creek Valley alignment for the north leg.

[craner]

Originally Posted by outoftheice

Having attended many of the engagement session for Green Line I think this issue is the one with the biggest disconnect. The communities along Centre St are more than happy with LRT on the surface because what they hate even more is the status quo situation where people from the far flung 'burbs clog Centre St with traffic every morning and evening cruising through these communities without stopping. This is why we saw at Monday's committee meeting both the Crescent Heights Community Association and the Crescent Heights Business Improvement Area come out in support of the Centre St surface running alignment.


From what I saw at the engagement and was supported by the public submissions to committee, it's not the Calgarians in these communities against the idea of surface running LRT. It's the Calgarians whose commute takes them through these communities without a thought or care on the impact their commute actually has on the tens of thousands of people who actually live there. So I'm okay with building a train designed with the communities it passes through in mind because the drivers it inconveniences will eventually be able to hop on the train and stop driving anyways.

Yes but the NC train is going to be a painfully slow streetcar - who is going to want to “hop on”’ that ? I know I wont be. At that point why build NC at all ? If we are going to build it, act like a big city and do it right (underground).
I fail to see how a surface running LRT in the middle of Center St. with a lane of traffic on either side and no parking for businesses is going to create a “better public realm environment”.

[craner]

Originally Posted by lucx

If Centre Street becomes a community street with less traffic, it may be acceptable for LRT to cross 16 Ave at grade. This saves $250 million for an underground station. The rest of Centre seems fairly simple with only a tunnel under McKnight. Assuming $100 million/km, you can get to 64 Ave for a cool $550 million, Beddington for $750 million. There appears to be a large contingency in the $4.9 billion budget. If everything goes right, its possible there may be enough left over to get to 64 Ave.

Do these costs include property acquisition for NC ?

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by craner

Yes but the NC train is going to be a painfully slow streetcar - who is going to want to “hop on”’ that ? I know I wont be. At that point why build NC at all ? If we are going to build it, act like a big city and do it right (underground).
I fail to see how a surface running LRT in the middle of Center St. with a lane of traffic on either side and no parking for businesses is going to create a “better public realm environment”.

It won’t be a painfully slow streetcar. The LRT in Calgary’s average speed right now is only a few KPH higher than the projected speed for the street running sections of the Eglinton LRT (~28kph). Streetcars in Toronto which run in mixed traffic are painfully slow, the slowest being 13 kph iirc.

The LRT will run as fast as we want it to - will we leave open too many road crossings? Will those crossings not have LRT priority? Have too many u-turn points? Have those points without LRT priority?

Transit infrastructure is a spectrum, where different pieces can add up to get the same results in trip time, which is a result of frequency and speed. Removing elements which cost a lot but which don’t result it significant trip time benefits is a good thing.

[lucx]

Originally Posted by craner

Do these costs include property acquisition for NC ?

The city hasn't released detailed information so it's speculation. But I think the $1.5 billion estimate (~$200 million/km) to 96 Ave assumes a new underground 16 Ave station, property acquisition between Beddington Drive and Beddington Trail, ramps, and a trenched 96 Ave station.

I believe the portion north of Eau Claire is budgeted at $400 million. I'm assuming most of it going to the bridge leaving Center Street with ~$100 million. There appears to be minimal property acquisition in Crescent Heights - limited to portions of the sidewalk. Based on this, I'm speculating the route to Beddington station is similar with minimal land acquisition. Assuming 16 Ave station remains at grade, $100 million/km seems reasonable to get up to Beddington.

[YYCguys]

Here we go again!

Green Line poll commissioned by group calling to 'de-risk' LRT tests support for 'alternative plan'
Author of the article:Madeline Smith
Publishing date:1 hour ago

A majority of Calgarians who answered a poll commissioned by a group calling to “de-risk” the Green Line LRT project expressed support for a “scaled back plan” when given information about how that would save money.

About half the people polled said the city should go with the plan pitched by a group of business figures that dubbed themselves an “ad hoc committee of Calgary citizens.” Nearly one-third of the respondents said Calgary should proceed with the Green Line as it’s proposed now, and 12 per cent said the project should be abandoned completely....

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-new...cm/9ebe184f-ed48-4081-b7f5-72837d3b6992/

I wonder if those yahoos behind this actually ride the current LRT! Do they know how ugly and inconvenient those stations are? Do they realize that replicating that on the Green Line will completely ruin the streetscape of downtown, the Beltline and Inglewood? I’m not impressed with their tactics!

[Pegasus]

The Calgary Herald article referenced by YYCguys above also mentions:

"The poll also indicated that a strong majority of Calgarians are worried about the economic effect of COVID-19 and the energy price crash, with 86 per cent agreeing with Mayor Naheed Nenshi that Calgary will be hit harder than any city in Canada".

This is my big beef with the project. Can the City really afford all these huge projects and take on so much debt when the future is so uncertain? Major LRT expansions; Saddledome replacement; and what will be largest conference centre in Western Canada. Remember what happened to Montreal after the 1976 Olympics? The city was swimming in debt for decades. Nenshi was on Global TV this morning and is desperate not to loose the federal and provincial funding for the Green Line. He didn't mention what the long term impact of this huge combined debt load would be on the city, considering the City already has huge budget issues. (I know borrowing costs are very low now but can proponents of this view guarantee they will stay low for 30 years?)

He also spoke about the importance of building the most expensive section through downtown and across the river now, and expanding north and south later. There are many examples around the world of "bridges to nowhere"!

[MalcolmTucker]

"Can the City really afford all these huge projects and take on so much debt when the future is so uncertain?"


Yes. Debt is low, and the revenue (from the city) is there already for the greenline (allocated maybe a decade ago).