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  #501  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 1:56 PM
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Originally Posted by memememe76 View Post
I am not sure why the protests in Canada is reflective of Canada in any specific way. There are non-US countries around the world having their own protests. It's not just Canada.
Yeah, it's pretty clear that the U.S. has become or is at least fast becoming the secondary "domestic" culture for most of the western world.

Not surprisingly, Canada is much further along than any other country, and here the U.S. is arguably already even the "top level" of the domestic culture. Canadian matters are the minor leagues by comparison.
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  #502  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 1:56 PM
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There's an emerging theory that we are watching generational change playout. The demographers who coined the term "millennial" predicted "The Great Crisis of 2020" bringing Boomers and Millennials into sharp conflict. They didn't intend to time it so perfectly. But the theory makes a lot of sense. A great read:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/politics/coronavirus-republicans-trump.html

I personally doubt the crisis would have accelerated to this extent if Trump hadn't been in power and 40 million people weren't sitting at home in the US and 3 million in Canada.
     
     
  #503  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 2:00 PM
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There's an emerging theory that we are watching generational change playout. The demographers who coined the term "millennial" predicted "The Great Crisis of 2020" bringing Boomers and Millennials into sharp conflict. They didn't intend to time it so perfectly. But the theory makes a lot of sense. A great read:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/politics/coronavirus-republicans-trump.html

I personally doubt the crisis would have accelerated to this extent if Trump hadn't been in power and 40 million people weren't sitting at home in the US and 3 million in Canada.
I'm not familiar with these demographers. Do they suggest that, by 2030, the millenials will be eagerly pulling the plug on declining Boomers, as I expect?
     
     
  #504  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 2:02 PM
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I personally doubt the crisis would have accelerated to this extent if Trump hadn't been in power and 40 million people weren't sitting at home in the US and 3 million in Canada.

It's kind of been treated like the elephant in the room, but COVID has definitely been a major factor in this powderkeg. I think it would have happened at some point regardless, but it was certainly part of the catalyst.

Most largescale sea change events (not saying we are necessarily in one) also have other big factors contributing to the snowballing of events. South African involvement in the Angolan Civil War likely dramatically hastened the fall of the Apartheid regime, for instance.
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  #505  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 2:06 PM
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Most largescale sea change events (not saying we are necessarily in one) also have other big factors contributing to the snowballing of events. South African involvement in the Angolan Civil War likely dramatically hastened the fall of the Apartheid regime, for instance.
I hope people read the article. Those authors have been spot on. They are consulted by investment banks. And Trump's own advisor (Steve Bannon) was a fan, hoping to win over Millennials before the the changeover.

I really think this is historical. It almost feels like watching the Arab Spring or the Colour Revolutions of ex-Soviet Republics. The Arab Spring was sparked by the death of one humble fruit merchant.
     
     
  #506  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 2:11 PM
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I'm not familiar with these demographers. Do they suggest that, by 2030, the millenials will be eagerly pulling the plug on declining Boomers, as I expect?
No. Just that history goes in 80 yr cycles and every four generations (20 yrs each) there's a reset. In this sense, Millennials are basically the same as The Greatest Generation, who dramatically reset US politics after the Great Depression.

And your sarcasm aside, the authors are Boomers themselves. I doubt they are looking to their great-grandchildren pulling the plug.
     
     
  #507  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 2:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
I hope people read the article. Those authors have been spot on. They are consulted by investment banks. And Trump's own advisor (Steve Bannon) was a fan, hoping to win over Millennials before the the changeover.

I really think this is historical. It almost feels like watching the Arab Spring or the Colour Revolutions of ex-Soviet Republics. The Arab Spring was sparked by the death of one humble fruit merchant.
I'm not so certain.

In the West, 1968 would have had the same 'feel' - the hippies versus their parents. However, that fall Richard Nixon was elected. In France, May 1968 was a near-revolution and de Gaulle had fled the country. His party was re-elected with a stunning majority a few months later.

The Arab Spring petered out as well. The military still runs Egypt.

We shall see, I suppose.
     
     
  #508  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 2:22 PM
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I remember 1968. It was my least favourite year by far.

I have already discussed with members of my family how much 2020 feels like 1968.
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  #509  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 2:22 PM
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This kind of flies in the face of your subsequent comments about "discussion," does it not?

None of these are really verifiable, as there's a multitude of factors going on in each case. Toronto had a much higher crime rate in the 90s for instance, despite likely having these nebulous "aggressive policing measures" you mention. The recent spike in violence doesn't seem to have any correlation with the banning of carding, even if a few more younger black people are stopped walking in their own neighbourhood (hah, who are we kidding).

There's also been a vast amount of academic research on the New York case that seems to point to wider societal/economic trends which allowed the Giuliani's "cleanup". While praised by a certain set on this forum (big surprise) it's still viciously derided by most New Yorkers I've talked to in person. Which also shouldn't be a jump to assuming they want to bring back the absolute dregs of the 80s, again which SSP constantly assumes. They've asserted it's just swept any problems under the rug and disproportionately affected the poor and minorities who don't fit the image of the new New York.

If we want discussion there have been many studies on alternate forms of policing such as the procedural model, yet I highly doubt anyone here would entertain that. Even though the City of Minneapolis seems to actually be looking into these things. But on SSP it's too much of a circlejerk of intellectual superiority about The Way Things Should Be. Which is particularly easy to say given the detached position most here are in. After all a discussion about a massive social event should have the same discourse as one regarding the merits of curtain wall over window wall glass.
This is one of the better, more thoughtful posts on this thread. Well said.
     
     
  #510  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 2:44 PM
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I'm not so certain.

In the West, 1968 would have had the same 'feel' - the hippies versus their parents. However, that fall Richard Nixon was elected. In France, May 1968 was a near-revolution and de Gaulle had fled the country. His party was re-elected with a stunning majority a few months later.

The Arab Spring petered out as well. The military still runs Egypt.

We shall see, I suppose.
The authors didn't suggest there'd be no change at all in the 80 years. Rather that disruption happens with every generation (20 years), with the largest changes happening every 4 generations.

And the Arab Spring didn't peter out at all. Was successful in overthrowing governments all over the Arab World. With some changing for the better and some for worse, with some still to be decided.
     
     
  #511  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 2:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
The authors didn't suggest there'd be no change at all in the 80 years. Rather that disruption happens with every generation (20 years), with the largest changes happening every 4 generations.

And the Arab Spring didn't peter out at all. Was successful in overthrowing governments all over the Arab World. With some changing for the better and some for worse, with some still to be decided.
Again, I remain skeptical of people who make predictions about human history, or any 20 year or 80 year 'rule'.

It rained here 3 days ago. That tells me nothing about 3 days from now.

People want to sort/classify/apply order to human history. Which is fine, looking only at the past. For the future - who knows?

Human history is a continuum. It works in weird and mysterious ways. Seemingly random events shift things. Sometimes events we didn't even see coming shape a generation.
     
     
  #512  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 2:54 PM
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Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
I'm not so certain.

In the West, 1968 would have had the same 'feel' - the hippies versus their parents. However, that fall Richard Nixon was elected. In France, May 1968 was a near-revolution and de Gaulle had fled the country. His party was re-elected with a stunning majority a few months later.

The Arab Spring petered out as well. The military still runs Egypt.

We shall see, I suppose.
Though I did start to wonder a bit when I saw protestors surrounding the White House and heard about Trump going into the bunker, I tend to agree with you.

I think that compared to all these "Systems" that were overthrown, the current U.S. one is significantly more robust than any of them.

Not just or even primarily because it has military and law enforcement might behind it, but because contrary to popular belief and rhetoric about it being broken and unfair, it actually *works* for a fairly significant share of the population.

I'd venture to say that a pretty strong majority of Americans have a vested interest in the status quo. "The System" was actually set up for this happen, to ensure its stability.

While it's true that in most revolutions, the overthrowing is only done by a fragment of the population, the passive majority who lets it happen isn't generally satisfied either. In spite of their passivity.

For all of its problems, many many Americans still think their country is great.
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  #513  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 3:13 PM
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Not just or even primarily because it has military and law enforcement might behind it, but because contrary to popular belief and rhetoric about it being broken and unfair, it actually *works* for a fairly significant share of the population.

I'd venture to say that a pretty strong majority of Americans have a vested interest in the status quo. "The System" was actually set up for this happen, to ensure its stability.

...

For all of its problems, many many Americans still think their country is great.
While I'm about 60% in agreement with you, and I'm pretty sure that most structural things in the US won't change, this is probably the time in my life - and probably since the Great Depression - where the American way of life isn't able to work for the people it's intended to work for.

The American system has always been about enabling its corporations to thrive, rather than its people. The people who thrive in America thrive because its corporations do well. They get this in the form of probably the highest material standard of living on earth (because the largest American corporations are domestic and consumer-facing) and also a highly capitalized retirement/personal wealth system that is invested in the health of its corporations.

Right now, status quo Americans' 401ks are in the tank and even if they have money to spend, there are fewer things for them to spend it on than most of them have ever experienced.
     
     
  #514  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 3:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
No. Just that history goes in 80 yr cycles and every four generations (20 yrs each) there's a reset. In this sense, Millennials are basically the same as The Greatest Generation, who dramatically reset US politics after the Great Depression.

And your sarcasm aside, the authors are Boomers themselves. I doubt they are looking to their great-grandchildren pulling the plug.
Sarcasm? I was completely serious. Why do you think assisted dying has developed as and when it has? Society is setting the stage for a facilitated generational change.
     
     
  #515  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 3:29 PM
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Sarcasm? I was completely serious. Why do you think assisted dying has developed as and when it has? Society is setting the stage for a facilitated generational change.
Are you saying that assisted dying legislation is some ploy by under-35s to rid the world of their parents?
     
     
  #516  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 3:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
A lot of people here seem suspicious of what I am getting at, or what I am trying to prove or "win". Other are similarly targeted.

I mean, what the fuck? It's a discussion forum. I am here to exchange ideas.

And discuss.
Your style seems to be "gotcha" minor details and asking open ended questions and then disagreeing with the answers. It rubs some people the wrong way.

Somebody will post some information and posit a theory. You'll respond that they are wrong 10% of the time. Therefor what?
     
     
  #517  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 3:32 PM
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Are you saying that assisted dying legislation is some ploy by under-35s to rid the world of their parents?
Haven't a large number of people who've been pushing for it been from older generations?
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  #518  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 3:34 PM
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Does your immediate social circles include hanging out with 18-22 year olds, though? I doubt it.
Only through work, but there are a lot of them. The inter-racial relationships for one are very commonplace. I'm in a very multi-racial city (Vancouver) and grew up in diverse neighborhoods. I've never seen people so socially integrated in my lifetime as they are today.

Of course different sexually oriented groups are going to congregate together. It's a "shared interest" just like anything else. But friendships are still all over the place.

As for your one example, it seems that there's an issue there, but anecdotes don't prove anything.
     
     
  #519  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 3:34 PM
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Your style seems to be "gotcha" minor details and asking open ended questions and then disagreeing with the answers. It rubs some people the wrong way.

Somebody will post some information and posit a theory. You'll respond that they are wrong 10% of the time. Therefor what?
Just because I ask the question doesn't mean I have to be satisfied with the answer.

Not everyone agrees with me but I doubt that many people here see me as a particularly obtuse, hyper-partisan poster.
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  #520  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2020, 3:35 PM
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Are you saying that assisted dying legislation is some ploy by under-35s to rid the world of their parents?
No, as with everything of consequence for the past half century, it reflects the Boomer ethos. As we have dominated in life, we will determine, where possible, the time and method of our departure. Millennials are simply the tool. I sense little or no reticence to playing the required role.
     
     
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