Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

Thanks. Out of curiosity I'm going to ask around to see if anyone knows what these are costing AF/KLM to run. If I find anything I'll post here.

It would certainly be interesting to know. It would also be interesting to know how many people they bring to/from Ottawa on average. If it’s typically full, the bus will give them good value for money, but if it’s mostly empty, it would probably be cheaper to buy them train tickets, If the schedule and reliability are fixed.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

It would certainly be interesting to know. It would also be interesting to know how many people they bring to/from Ottawa on average. If it’s typically full, the bus will give them good value for money, but if it’s mostly empty, it would probably be cheaper to buy them train tickets, If the schedule and reliability are fixed.

I'd say cost to AFKL may be less of an issue than being able to book pax across the whole day's schedule without requiring pax to wait hours for flights that are far from their bus arrival/departure at YUL. That will be balanced against curbside service at Dorval. Booking a bus and driver to do 5 hrs a day isn't really that expensive.

Integration though really can't happen without HFR AND the Dorval REM connection. Taking that shuttle from Dorval VIA station is kind of a crappy experience. But the existence of that shuttle does show how many folks take the train to access YUL today. Converting a lot of the drivers over is low hanging fruit.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 9

Brace yourself for an increase in service: DL are increasing DTW from 5x weekly to daily in June.

UA extends full transborder cuts (zero ops) for another month (June).

One thing HFR assumes from what I’ve read is that HFR assumes Via in the corridor can operate at break even/without subsidy. Currently every corridor passenger is subsidized to the due of $20.

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by roger1818

It would certainly be interesting to know. It would also be interesting to know how many people they bring to/from Ottawa on average. If it’s typically full, the bus will give them good value for money, but if it’s mostly empty, it would probably be cheaper to buy them train tickets, If the schedule and reliability are fixed.

Well there are multiple daily coaches by AFKL (not just one as is being repeated) each timed appropriately for one or more flights so I'm not sure they're running these as charity for the few. Maybe we should crowd source the funds to pull XDS data from Sabre!

I'm also interested in actual numbers of how many currently use Via to transfer at Dorval. I can't think of a single way to figure this out reliably (the availability of an on-demand shuttle is a poor indicator); I don't think even Via knows or tracks this (there isn't even a field to put airline/flight info on the Via reservation form).

[c_speed3108]

I think Google has updated their satellite images of airports. There is literally no planes anyway! Plenty of great gates available!

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

Well there are multiple daily coaches by AFKL (not just one as is being repeated)

Been a while since I used it. Apologies if wrong. I don't want to spread misinformation. How many are there? And how do they line up with their flights?

[YOWflier]

I recall there being up to 3 in the not so distant past but some fantom bookings for Aug/Sept show 2. Things aren't exactly normal now though.

They generally arrive 2h25 or less before departure; there's one outlying late departure that would have someone sitting around for 6+ hours, but I don't know who in there right mind* would do that when there's a plethora of greyhound service to choose from.

* There have been some reports that XDS-wherever via YUL and CDG can be priced lower than the same itinerary ex-YUL. Maybe someone is willing to sit around that long to save a few bucks.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

One thing HFR assumes from what I’ve read is that HFR assumes Via in the corridor can operate at break even/without subsidy. Currently every corridor passenger is subsidized to the due of $20.

This has been discussed numerous times. I know it's counter intuitive but more trains and faster speeds does enable more revenue and lower prices.

On the cost side, the faster the train goes the more productive the train and crew are. They generate more passenger-miles. So it lowers unit cost.

On the revenue side a big part of attracting passengers is offering a decent schedule. Particularly in getting drivers off the road. You're more likely to drive than wait 2 hrs for the next train. Have hourly service and the maximum wait is an hour. Most would do that. If they get more demand, they could probably cut headways to 30-45 mins on some segments (like Ottawa-Montreal). And drivers is what HFR is first and foremost targeted towards. It's just that there's particular impacts on aviation in the Ottawa market because of how the schedules work out.

If they manage to get Ottawa-Toronto down to the rumoured 3 hrs, I can even see HFR pulling some air pax. Depending on where somebody starts and ends, rail becomes faster door-to-door in this scenario. Or close enough that the value of airfare is negated for many travelers. I can see air travel on this segment basically reduced to those doing same day out-and-backs and feeder to wider networks. This is why I say that reductions in downgauges and frequency reductions are likely. More O/D shifts to rail the faster the service is on a city pair. There's even a great equation to model the air-rail marketshare split in this wiki article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail#Market_shares

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

I recall there being up to 3 in the not so distant past...

That's still a lot less than the number of flights they put up out of YUL. Especially at summer peak.

I see benefits to buses. But I also see real value in them simply giving train vouchers to customers booking from Ottawa. There's so much more flexibility for passengers and less headaches for the airline. If and when these services are built will be interesting to see what they choose.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

* There have been some reports that XDS-wherever via YUL and CDG can be priced lower than the same itinerary ex-YUL. Maybe someone is willing to sit around that long to save a few bucks.

Not unlike ABC-YYZ-XYZ often being cheaper than YYZ-XYZ, as long as ABC is not in Canada. This is why hidden ticketing happens....

[YOWflier]

That's not conventional hidden city. ABC has to be on the destination end not the origin end. So YYZ-XYZ-ABC being cheaper than YYZ-XYZ, and someone boards at YYZ, flies to XYZ (the intended destination), and skips the ABC leg. "Good" only for 1 way and better not check bags.

In your example, if someone books ABC-YYZ-XYZ and tries to board at YYZ without having traveled the ABC leg to start, they're toast (remaining legs canceled).

Interestingly, I think an itinerary ex-XDS is a rare exception to the above rule, where if someone skips the XDS leg and tries to board at YUL, their itinerary won't have been canceled. It's an unconventional hidden city example from the perspective of a YUL pax, where he/she can exploit this exception to fly normally from his/her home but potentially save a few bucks by faking an XDS origin.

As for the bus thing, I'm not so sure it's much of a headache for the airline. I'm pretty sure they subcontract it out (or partner) the exact same way they would to rail (someone mentioned Skyport a page earlier), so the choice between status quo and change I think will be mostly cost-based. And let's not forget that the coach lines won't sit idly by and let their cake be eaten by Via.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

That's not conventional hidden city.

I know. Mostly just pointing out that AC in particular treats Canadians like — while using a protected domestic market to increase their share of the US market. I hope the current situation forces them to actually put their home market first.

Originally Posted by ac888yow

As for the bus thing, I'm not so sure it's much of a headache for the airline. I'm pretty sure they subcontract it out (or partner) the exact same way they would to rail (someone mentioned Skyport a page earlier), so the choice between status quo and change I think will be mostly cost-based. And let's not forget that the coach lines won't sit idly by and let their cake be eaten by Via.

All depends on what kind of experience the airline wants to offer. The bus is slightly cheaper and has curbside service. The train is faster, more frequent, has more stops to pickup pax and is more comfortable.

In theory HFR should also enable a price that is somewhat competitive with a coach, especially if they get the funds for electrification. All that said, like I've said earlier, AFKL and a handful of coach buses is not super relevant here. The bigger threat to YOW is making self-connection much easier. How many people drive to YUL today? That flow increases if the time and cost penalty to do so is reduced, and if Ottawa fares are higher. Personally, I like the fact that easier cross-shopping will keep the carriers honest.

[YOWflier]

The experience factor will depend on the type of pax boarding at XDS. The mantra for economy is "let's make this as — as we can without being called before the human rights tribunal". So an airline being concerned with making busloads of economy pax happier would be ... bizarro world.

If they're routinely getting a lot of J pax (I have my doubts), I can see that driving a switch to rail because it would enable a more seamless experience with J pax maybe going into Via J, and Y pax going into Via Y.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

The experience factor will depend on the type of pax boarding at XDS.

The boarding process does — at Tremblay. But I chalk that up to Tremblay being a terminus station. It's similarly bad in Toronto and Montreal. But get on at any station in between and no hassles at all. Fallowfield, for example, is way better.

More broadly in all these discussions everyone gets fixated with how VIA operates today. By virtue of necessity a lot of how they operate would have to change for HFR to operate properly, let alone be successful. For example, their boarding process would necessarily have to change at Ottawa. If Ottawa becomes a through station, they can't spend 20 mins boarding.

Originally Posted by ac888yow

If they're routinely getting a lot of J pax (I have my doubts), I can see that driving a switch to rail because it would enable a more seamless experience with J pax maybe going into Via J, and Y pax going into Via Y.

It's an interesting thought. It's a great way to draw some J pax and given the cost/return ratio probably worthwhile.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by c_speed3108

I think Google has updated their satellite images of airports. There is literally no planes anyway! Plenty of great gates available!

For whatever reason (probably to improve the view) erase most aircraft on the ground.

[bikegypsy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Let me guess. You don't use transit much, and have never accessed the airport by transit. Unless you live near the airport, Tremblay station is station is substantially more accessible for a lot of Ottawa. Most importantly the downtown core. Transit aside, it's also more accessible by car too. And since HFR would be a through service, Fallowfield would function similarly in the west end.

I actually agree that YOW is a fantastic airport. But as long as there are more options at YUL and more competitive pricing, easier access of that airport will have an impact on where people choose to fly from.

Actually I have many times. Depends on the city. I generally dislike cars (never owned one) so I spend most of my time cycling and in mass transit (at times with one of my bikes). I also get to and from airports on my bike. Granted I use Uber and whatnot to and from most airports as I just want to avoid messiness as much as possible.

In terms of trains, you're preaching to the choir... I just love them. It's my favorite form of transportation after biking.

I just can't see this idea flying with the bread and butter of these tiny haul flights : business travelers... The carriers would need to provide a seamless experience with real check-in at point of entry and dropping people off directly at the terminal in Montreal in order to begin to look "not so bad" to some business travelers. And that simply won't happen, for all sorts of reasons, but mainly for security.

This idea will appeal to regular folks off to the Bahamas, as it will look better than driving (for some) and will compete with the existing Via ride and the Dorval Greyhound pit stops... Just a non-starter for busy business travelers who want to be on their laptops sipping coffee or beer as soon as possible.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by bikegypsy

I just can't see this idea flying with the bread and butter of these tiny haul flights : business travelers... The carriers would need to provide a seamless experience with real check-in at point of entry and dropping people off directly at the terminal in Montreal in order to begin to look "not so bad" to some business travelers. And that simply won't happen, for all sorts of reasons, but mainly for security.

I actually agree. I am hopeful that they can make it good enough to snag some business travelers though. My math says 1.5 - 2 hrs from downtown Ottawa to the check-in counter at YUL if HFR and the REM Dorval extension happen. I can definitely see some business travel moving over. Especially from those who don't originate in YOW and aren't card-carrying Altitude Elites. At minimum, it gives a new avenue for the other two TATL JVs (AFKL and IAG) and non-aligned carriers a way to compete more robustly in Ottawa's market. Just include a train voucher in the fare.

Originally Posted by bikegypsy

This idea will appeal to regular folks off to the Bahamas, as it will look better than driving (for some) and will compete with the existing Via ride and the Dorval Greyhound pit stops...

If this rail project is done right, intercity bus might find it very difficult to compete in Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec City corridor. VIA's CEO has specifically said he's targeting drivers. If he can get the cost and trip time to a level where he can appeal to drivers, I see some real challenges for bus companies. Their profit margins will certainly take hits. Also this is not competing with the existing VIA service. It's replacing it.

[Dominion301]

Here are AC’s planned YOW June ops by frequency and aircraft type:
YUL: CR9 daily & DH3 daily starting June 2
YHZ: CR9 5x weekly ops X26
LHR: 330 daily starting June 24
YVR: 320 daily
YYC: 320 daily starting June 22
YYZ: E75 4x daily (3x on day 7), 320 6x/wk (ops X7), 223 daily

So we’re getting regular A220 flights starting soon (at this point).

BOS, EWR, YEG, YXU, YQB, YQR & YWG are all supposed to (again at this point) resume July 1.

DCA, YFC and YQM are still supposed to resume on September 8.

All winter seasonal routes, including MCO that was converted back to seasonal, are still showing as operating this coming winter.

YYG, YXE and YYT are suspended until summer 2021.

[Dominion301]

Today's departure count: 11

[Truenorth00]

The A220 is perfect for Ottawa. I hope DL eventually sends theirs our way.