Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[wave46]

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

What should a home in rural, but well serviced newfoundland cost?

Depends where it is.

I mean, you can find homes in Ontario for <$100,000.

Sure, they're in places like Kapuskasing or Atikokan or whatnot. They exist though.

[CityTech]

In Ottawa, it seems the condo market is about to really decline. In recent weeks, I've noticed a flood of new 1 and 2 bedroom condos going onto the market; there's actually more supply available on MLS than there was 3 months ago. When you consider that buying activity has dropped... it's inevitable that prices will decline.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by CityTech

In Ottawa, it seems the condo market is about to really decline. In recent weeks, I've noticed a flood of new 1 and 2 bedroom condos going onto the market; there's actually more supply available on MLS than there was 3 months ago. When you consider that buying activity has dropped... it's inevitable that prices will decline.

The condo market was always going to be more volatile, given the non-fixed supply; but especially in this case it's unsurprising given how many units were being used for Airbnb which has seen its demand completely evaporate for obvious reasons.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by CityTech

In Ottawa, it seems the condo market is about to really decline. In recent weeks, I've noticed a flood of new 1 and 2 bedroom condos going onto the market; there's actually more supply available on MLS than there was 3 months ago. When you consider that buying activity has dropped... it's inevitable that prices will decline.

Airbnb douchebags everywhere are dumping. Most of these are in the downtown core. I expect similar situations to develop in every major city in Canada.

[whatnext]

If governments want to kickstart employment in the hard-hit hospitality industry they should just ban AirBnB outright and funnel demand to hotels which actually employ people.

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If governments want to kickstart employment in the hard-hit hospitality industry they should just ban AirBnB outright and funnel demand to hotels which actually employ people.

The problem long-term is that high hotel rates choke the economy. Travelers/business/tourists greatly benefit the economy.
But we don't have enough hotel rooms. Rather than competing with hotels, AirBnB was just keeping them from being forced to jack up rates even further. Vancouver hotels were full often, almost 24/7.

Our local insurance companies actually own/rent suites just to put people in when their place is under restoration because hotels are too expensive and unreliable.

We need AirBnB or many more hotel rooms long term when the economy is better.

[Truenorth00]

Build more hotel rooms. AirBnB's model is 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 and has massive externalities for locals. Hotels are built in commercial zones. They are built to different construction standards that account for the large number of guests in an unfamiliar setting generating high traffic.

AirBnB was fine when it was grandma renting out their basement or somebody renting out a spare room. But greed for the best of people and now we have have condos turned into ghost hotels and every landlord in a central location prices rent at a small discount from what the place would never on AirBnB. This is not sustainable or healthy.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If governments want to kickstart employment in the hard-hit hospitality industry they should just ban AirBnB outright and funnel demand to hotels which actually employ people.

This would be absolutely glorious.

Not sure it's needed though. So many of these greedy fucks are so overleveraged and undercapitalized that even if they get back 50% occupancy they'll be in trouble. This is why the properties are coming on market.

Particularly entertaining now is seeing preconstruction listings. A lot of those are potentially STR landlords too, now realizing how screwed they are.

[misher]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Build more hotel rooms. AirBnB's model is 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 and has massive externalities for locals. Hotels are built in commercial zones. They are built to different construction standards that account for the large number of guests in an unfamiliar setting generating high traffic.

AirBnB was fine when it was grandma renting out their basement or somebody renting out a spare room. But greed for the best of people and now we have have condos turned into ghost hotels and every landlord in a central location prices rent at a small discount from what the place would never on AirBnB. This is not sustainable or healthy.

Want to bet Vancouver doesn't take measures to build more hotel supply.

Still determined to increase property taxes and service fees 7% this year.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Build more hotel rooms. AirBnB's model is 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 and has massive externalities for locals. Hotels are built in commercial zones. They are built to different construction standards that account for the large number of guests in an unfamiliar setting generating high traffic.

AirBnB was fine when it was grandma renting out their basement or somebody renting out a spare room. But greed for the best of people and now we have have condos turned into ghost hotels and every landlord in a central location prices rent at a small discount from what the place would never on AirBnB. This is not sustainable or healthy.

AirBNB still has tons of properties that are people renting out their spare bedroom. Those just don’t make the news. (I’ve stayed in quite a few of these in my travels over the past five years.)

I would not be in favour of banning AirBNBs where people are renting rooms in the homes they live in, or in cases where they’re licensed as a short term rental. I do agree with banning whole condos/apartments being used as AirBNBs (ghost hotels), but a lot of the anti-AirBNB crowd has been overlooking the significant number of their properties that are still in the spirit of what it was originally intended to be.

I don’t benefit from AirBNB at all and have no affiliation with it, but I do think some of the information going around about it isn’t totally factual. They are extremely beneficial for people who need someplace to live temporarily, such as when they’re new to a city and are looking for a more permanent apartment.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If governments want to kickstart employment in the hard-hit hospitality industry they should just ban AirBnB outright and funnel demand to hotels which actually employ people.

I totally agree particularly in cities that have both a housing affordability and a availability crisis like Vancouver. Get rid of these AirBnB and thousands of housing units would be available for rent and far fewer investors would buy real estate to begin with causing the prices to decline which allows more of the actual citizens who live in the city to be able to afford to buy a home.

These AirBnB are also a plague on home owners in the condo buildings themselves. The vacationers couldn't care less how loud or disruptive they are and neither do the absentee landlords.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I totally agree particularly in cities that have both a housing affordability and a availability crisis like Vancouver. Get rid of these AirBnB and thousands of housing units would be available for rent and far fewer investors would buy real estate to begin with causing the prices to decline which allows more of the actual citizens who live in the city to be able to afford to buy a home.

These AirBnB are also a plague on home owners in the condo buildings themselves. The vacationers couldn't care less how loud or disruptive they are and neither do the absentee landlords.

If "thousands" of new units being taken up by AirBnB is true, then adding all those to Vancouver's housing stock would perhaps give you a few month's holiday of housing price increase, before population growth absorbed it. It's not the actual problem, the problem is not enough houses being added to match population growth, and that difference dwarfs the number of short term rentals.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by milomilo

If "thousands" of new units being taken up by AirBnB is true, then adding all those to Vancouver's housing stock would perhaps give you a few month's holiday of housing price increase, before population growth absorbed it. It's not the actual problem, the problem is not enough houses being added to match population growth, and that difference dwarfs the number of short term rentals.

This is not entirely true. It's action at the margins that drives price increases. An investor not consuming housing (using it for AirBnB rather than living in) will drive up prices because his/her price point is based on potential revenue generation, a very different calculation from someone who wants to live in that home.

Yes, lack of construction can have an impact. But not the kinds of prices increases we've seen the last few years.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

AirBNB still has tons of properties that are people renting out their spare bedroom. Those just don’t make the news. (I’ve stayed in quite a few of these in my travels over the past five years.)

I would not be in favour of banning AirBNBs where people are renting rooms in the homes they live in, or in cases where they’re licensed as a short term rental. I do agree with banning whole condos/apartments being used as AirBNBs (ghost hotels), but a lot of the anti-AirBNB crowd has been overlooking the significant number of their properties that are still in the spirit of what it was originally intended to be.

I know AirBnB has these. But the proportion of whole home rentals has grown massively and is basically driving most of AirBnB's growth and profits at this point. I doubt most people would have an issue if they went back to renting basements. But they won't. Which means communities have to look at effective controls.

Forget about Vancouver, short term rentals absolutely destroy the communities in touristy cities. Read about Barcelona:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/04/29/the-airbnb-invasion-of-barcelona

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2...w-airbnb-is-forcing-out-barcelona-locals

[misher]

Sales up 22% week over week in Vancouver.

I had posted before that others were reporting a pickup in sales. So now there’s stats to back that up. As this is happening while we’re under lockdown without open houses you got to wonder how things will pickup if we removed the lockdown.
Uhttps://mobile.twitter.com/barryjmagee/status/1259889630263967746

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

Sales up 22% week over week in Vancouver.

Down 41% YOY is the more important number in that update that you somehow neglected to include.

[p_xavier]

Originally Posted by CityTech

In Ottawa, it seems the condo market is about to really decline. In recent weeks, I've noticed a flood of new 1 and 2 bedroom condos going onto the market; there's actually more supply available on MLS than there was 3 months ago. When you consider that buying activity has dropped... it's inevitable that prices will decline.

It's the opposite in Montréal, prices have gone way up in April because of less units on the market.

[misher]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Down 41% YOY is the more important number in that update that you somehow neglected to include.

A lockdown situation does not reflect the actual market lol. Almost all sales were pre-pandemic or were already in progress. 41% down gives no information.

But a 22% increase shows that sales are increasing which is very interesting. Does sales increasing in these conditions (lockdown plus people saying prices will go down) show the strength of our local market? Or possibly are people quickly selling at a huge discount?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

A lockdown situation does not reflect the actual market lol. Almost all sales were pre-pandemic or were already in progress. 41% down gives no information.

But a 22% increase shows that sales are increasing which is very interesting. Does sales increasing in these conditions (lockdown plus people saying prices will go down) show the strength of our local market? Or possibly are people quickly selling at a huge discount?

Your idiocy is quite hilarious. No point trying to argue that logic.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Down 41% YOY is the more important number in that update that you somehow neglected to include.

Real estate pumper math is always entertaining.

Originally Posted by p_xavier

It's the opposite in Montréal, prices have gone way up in April because of less units on the market.

This happens at the start of bear markets sometimes.