The Great Canadian Transit Thread

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

There is much about this video that is flawed logic. The biggest thing is the assumption that everything will go back to normal with people's income and their credit score, and their credit.

I think that people will be scared to go to restaurants due to the potential of catching something from someone nearby.

Flying will be for business only for a few years. To recoup the losses, the airfare will be much higher, and many low cost carriers will be squeezed out.

So, driving will not kill transit. I think covid will kill driving. Yes, gas is cheap, but people are seeing they can work from home, and may want to continue that way. Companies that pay for large office spaces will look at lowering costs when they start up. Real estate is a big cost, especially in the larger cities.

Every transit agency has been cutting service. They have been doing it as the ridership has plummeted due to less people working our going to school outside the home.

In fact, I think one thing the government will spend their stimulus money on are the major transit projects that have had dates over 10 years from now.

If I am wrong, right now, there should be more congestion in the bigger cities. But there isn't.

I guess I was more focused on the transit aspect of the video. I don't think everything will go back to normal with the exception of transit. Many will have lost their job (temporarily or permanently) placing them in debt.

People will be afraid to be in contact with anyone no matter where they are, including restaurants, concerts, sports games, concerts... Social distancing measures will continue to months after reopening, until a vaccine is discovered at the very least.

The aviation industry will be hit the hardest, harder than transit. The good thing that might come out of their is that we might see more tourism from within Canada. This is a good time to build HSR, or at the very least HFR between our largest cities.

New working from home policies will hit transit as much as driving in terms of base volumes. For those who do continue commuting to their workplace, I believe more will chose the car. Those who had cars will still have cars after the crisis, and if gas prices remain low, it will once again be cheaper to drive in many municipalities.

[hipster duck]

I think that transit ridership levels will resemble weekday, daytime off peak throughout the day. The white collar 9-5 commuters who surge during rush hour will mostly work from home, or be part of a 50:50 rotation of WFH/come into the office, but there’s still a large assortment of people who can’t work remotely who need to commute - this is far larger than the essential workers who are currently still working. In our downtown cores, this group of people can’t afford daily parking rates ($30/day in the office tower I work in) and many people will be considerably poorer than they were before the pandemic, so there’s still a big captive ridership.

[Dengler Avenue]

Uh oh then we’ll be like those cities in the states. “Oh look! Public transit’s only for the poor.”

[Innsertnamehere]

Incomes likely do play a big part in higher Canadian ridership. Cost of car ownership in Canada is also much higher, probably roughly 2x as much on average. Gas and insurance costs are simply way more. I wouldn’t say immigration status does though.

And like everything, it isn’t the only reason. Things like densities and Canada simply having more of a culture of transit use also impact it.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I guess I was more focused on the transit aspect of the video. I don't think everything will go back to normal with the exception of transit. Many will have lost their job (temporarily or permanently) placing them in debt.

People will be afraid to be in contact with anyone no matter where they are, including restaurants, concerts, sports games, concerts... Social distancing measures will continue to months after reopening, until a vaccine is discovered at the very least.

The aviation industry will be hit the hardest, harder than transit. The good thing that might come out of their is that we might see more tourism from within Canada. This is a good time to build HSR, or at the very least HFR between our largest cities.

New working from home policies will hit transit as much as driving in terms of base volumes. For those who do continue commuting to their workplace, I believe more will chose the car. Those who had cars will still have cars after the crisis, and if gas prices remain low, it will once again be cheaper to drive in many municipalities.

If you just mean the cost of gas, unless you rarely drive, the average monthly pass is still cheaper than the cost of driving in a month. Lets add insurance, payments and all of a sudden, it is nowhere near cheaper. Driving is and always will be more convenient for people. I just get in and go. It is no way cheaper.

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Uh oh then we’ll be like those cities in the states. “Oh look! Public transit’s only for the poor.”

I knew guy who lived in the GTA and worked on the TSE as a day trader. Guess how he got to/from work?

Transit. It wasn't a cost thing. It was the traffic. People aren't stupid. They know why the highways are not as congested.

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Incomes likely do play a big part in higher Canadian ridership. Cost of car ownership in Canada is also much higher, probably roughly 2x as much on average. Gas and insurance costs are simply way more. I wouldn’t say immigration status does though.

And like everything, it isn’t the only reason. Things like densities and Canada simply having more of a culture of transit use also impact it.

Glad someone gets it.

I do feel that once more people go back to work, they might look to transit as a cost cutting method. They might reduce the number of cars in their driveway, not add to it.


The one thing about comparing China is also the movement of wealth. The timing of their government boosting their economy to make it a manufacturing powerhouse and less of an agricultural powerhouse is likely what spurred the car ownership.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

My family are not immigrants and we will be going back to transit to the degree we used to use it for work and school when things get back to normal.

During the pandemic I've noticed a tendency to oversell long-term effects. I'm sure there will be an economic hangover but I'll be really surprised if in 2023 people are still obsessed with COVID-19 and afraid to go out in public.

A lot of transit infrastructure is built for 30-100 year timeframes. The oldest part of Toronto's subway has been operating for 66 years. Covid is a blip at that time scale.

I hope we are able to adjust short-term transit services appropriately while not derailing long-term capital investment. Canadian cities were not keeping up with transportation infrastructure during the 2010's. A work from home trend may be more of a "lucky break" temporarily relieving some pressure in growing cities.

[foolworm]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The one thing about comparing China is also the movement of wealth. The timing of their government boosting their economy to make it a manufacturing powerhouse and less of an agricultural powerhouse is likely what spurred the car ownership.

Not to mention car sales have gone up, but car use has gone *down*. Turns out people liked having breathable air (something we take for granted here except when there are forest fires), and overall trip demand hasn't recovered yet since people aren't going out as much. Cars are still very much a status symbol in China.

In other news, Eglinton drove its first train into the tunnel. Progress!

[corynv]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

If you just mean the cost of gas, unless you rarely drive, the average monthly pass is still cheaper than the cost of driving in a month. Lets add insurance, payments and all of a sudden, it is nowhere near cheaper. Driving is and always will be more convenient for people. I just get in and go. It is no way cheaper.

This is assuming a car vs no car comparison. There are a lot of people who will be making a "should i drive to work or just use my car for evening/weekend stuff". S costs like insurance would be happening either way. Just looking at cost of monthly pass vs cost of gas is valid.

[ssiguy]

Well I think the video is a bit melodramatic, there will definately be a long recovery period for transit and it may take years or potentially decades to regain that ridership for many reason:

1} Unemployment will still remain high for years and that means less workers taking transit to get to their jobs
2} Gas prices will remain low making it more financially viable and reducing the cost savings of taking transit.
3} The cuts now, although temporary, could force people working to get a car and once they have one they rarely go back to transit.
4} The plunging revenue, ridership, and governments being saddled with monstrous debt levels post-virus could mean that major expansion of both service and especially large infrastructure could come to a halt.

All of the above will eventually pass but this virus has resulted in a paradigm shift in how we see work and travel. Before this working from home was a pipe dream for 99% of workers and employers. Now many people who are working from home will decide that they prefer it and so will businesses and governments. Workers aren't late due to traffic or calling in sick because their kids are. This leads to higher productivity, a less commuting stressed workforce, less sick time, and being able to cut in half their office lease rates. Also students will realize they can learn just as much on-line at home and not have to spend the money or time getting to class. Online health services will become the norm and not just a fringe service they are now. Online shopping will continue to accelerate.

All of these things will lead to far less travel and hence transit than we once thought was necessary.

[lrt's friend]

All of the above may be true, however, one aspect that most people are craving (including myself) is a return to normal social interaction.

This cannot be accomplished by working from home, on-line classes, and doing all our shopping on-line.

There is a mental health aspect to this entire crisis and it is not in our best interest to do substantially more social distancing in the long-term because of changes in how we conduct our lives.

[p_xavier]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

All of the above may be true, however, one aspect that most people are craving (including myself) is a return to normal social interaction.

This cannot be accomplished by working from home, on-line classes, and doing all our shopping on-line.

There is a mental health aspect to this entire crisis and it is not in our best interest to do substantially more social distancing in the long-term because of changes in how we conduct our lives.

Depends, as an introvert I've never been better. I need to work during nightime with other people for the next two weeks and I don't miss socialising one bit.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

There is a mental health aspect to this entire crisis and it is not in our best interest to do substantially more social distancing in the long-term because of changes in how we conduct our lives.

Well... when it's a matter of population survival it arguably is in our best interest to do just that. I'm sure the medical authorities who sounded the alarm and advocated for these measures globally were well aware that there would be collateral damage as a result, but what is the alternative?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

All of the above may be true, however, one aspect that most people are craving (including myself) is a return to normal social interaction.

A lot of social interactions that are currently suspended are completely voluntary. Going to a sit-down restaurant, going to a concert or bar or conference, etc. I don't think they are things people were just "putting up with" in the absence of some remote technical alternative that eliminates the face-to-face interaction. There is a big cost to not being able to interact as much in person.

And we always tolerated a risk of illness or harm to be in these settings.

[ssiguy]

It is true that our social isolation will come to an end and people will go back to their restaurants, bars etc but those are fringe transit trips. The bread and butter of all transit systems are the 9 to 5 crowd and they are overwhelmingly NOT transit dependent.

As hundreds of thousands of workers switch over to work-at-home arrangements, those are riders that will never come back.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

It is true that our social isolation will come to an end and people will go back to their restaurants, bars etc but those are fringe transit trips. The bread and butter of all transit systems are the 9 to 5 crowd and they are overwhelmingly NOT transit dependent.

As hundreds of thousands of workers switch over to work-at-home arrangements, those are riders that will never come back.

In the grand scheme of things, this might not be such a bad thing. With thousands, if not millions across the country, working from their suburban homes and ditching transit, cities might have to shift their focus to building new transit lines in the city centres where residents use transit as a regular mode of transportation and not just for commuting. At the moment, many of the highest ridership routes are suburban focused because that is where service was provided in the 70s and 80s, building up ridership at the time. If that captive ridership fizzles out, then a culture shift by our cities will be needed.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The bread and butter of all transit systems are the 9 to 5 crowd and they are overwhelmingly NOT transit dependent.

As hundreds of thousands of workers switch over to work-at-home arrangements, those are riders that will never come back.

I'm not sure that working from home will become the new normal. Anecdotally a lot of teams are suffering from productivity loss right now (although this may also have to do with growing anxiety and mental stress because we're all cooped up in the midst of a pandemic).

That said, if we take your prediction at face value and most white collar workers just work from home, I don't see this being a bad thing in many respects. Transportation infrastructure of all kinds are extremely costly to build and maintain and creates all sorts of negative externalities. Worse, transportation capacity isn't something that can be automatically ramped up during times of high demand and ratcheted down during times of low demand. A transit agency still needs to own and maintain enough buses to serve rush hour demand even if 1/3 to 1/2 of those buses just sit around in a garage on Sundays. A parking lot at a commuter train station has to be large enough to be full during a weekday, even if it sits mostly empty on weekends. There would be huge cost savings to capital and operations if we could distribute the load more evenly. Having office workers work from home would be another kind of "curve flattening", if you will.

[Reecemartin]

[Deleted]

[Reecemartin]

[Deleted]

[Reecemartin]

[Deleted]

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Reecemartin

Edmonton going underground in the beginning will help it long term with capacity vs. Calgary.

Calgary can probably triple its capacity, perhaps more, whenever it needs to by building the red line tunnel. Spending that money in the future when we need to is much more preferable to spending 40 years ago when we didn't need it.