[Halifax] Navy Lane Condos (2183 Gottingen) | 24 m | 8 fl | U/C

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Please explain why highly urbanized Asian countries like South Korea and Taiwan have had such success in containing this outbreak then. Or why the U.S. largest outbreaks are now shaping up in the suburban south.

Having spent time in various parts of Asia, depending on where one thinks Asia begins, I would say there is a one word answer 'culture'. Few N Americans or Europeans would accept the measures implemented by Taiwan. I would because training and experience taught me the value of swift and informed decisive action.
Look at the New York city numbers : https://www.google.com/search?q=new+york....1.0l8.9405j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

N Italy and Spanish deaths are predominantly in dense urban areas, which is what is to be expected.
And then there is this fool who makes Trump look smart, an almost impossible task : https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/cuomo-doubles-down-on-sending-coronavirus-patients-to-nursing-homes/

[alps]

Hong Kong (more or less the densest city on earth, with around 90% of residents commuting by overcrowded public transport) has only had ~1000 cases, with very little increase over the past couple weeks. Despite the fact that the restrictions here have been generally more lax than those in Canada (most of us have continued to work). No new cases in the past two days. I don't believe China's numbers, but I do trust those from the Hong Kong medical system. I suspect that ubiquitous face mask usage has played a big role in keeping the number of cases down.

(That said, Hong Kong is indeed more strict in certain respects. Close contacts of confirmed cases have to stay in government quarantine centres for a period of time. And all confirmed cases are sent to hospital isolation wards, regardless of symptoms.)

Originally Posted by Keith P.

But I thought the Planning dogma was that sprawl killed and was the source for all problems? That we all needed to relocate from our decadent private homes to high-rise concrete apartment blocks?

Coming soon to Halifax


(Photo: Michael Wolf)

[OldDartmouthMark]

OK, so it appears that some are arguing that viruses tend to spread more easily in less dense suburban areas, and perhaps rural areas than dense urban areas?

Can you explain the scientific facts that support that theory?

[alps]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

OK, so it appears that some are arguing that viruses tend to spread more easily in less dense suburban areas, and perhaps rural areas than dense urban areas?

Can you explain the scientific facts that support that theory?

Nobody made that claim. We just provided some examples that refute the idea that "density kills". I think many other factors eclipse population density in determining the disease's spread.

[eastcoastal]

Originally Posted by Colin May

Having spent time in various parts of Asia, depending on where one thinks Asia begins, I would say there is a one word answer 'culture'. Few N Americans or Europeans would accept the measures implemented by Taiwan. I would because training and experience taught me the value of swift and informed decisive action.
Look at the New York city numbers : https://www.google.com/search?q=new+york....1.0l8.9405j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

N Italy and Spanish deaths are predominantly in dense urban areas, which is what is to be expected.
And then there is this fool who makes Trump look smart, an almost impossible task : https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/cuomo-doubles-down-on-sending-coronavirus-patients-to-nursing-homes/

I guess then your mantra ought to be "culture kills" or "politics kills?"

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by alps

Nobody made that claim. We just provided some examples that refute the idea that "density kills". I think many other factors eclipse population density in determining the disease's spread.

Of course there are other factors involved, factors that make a difference regardless of whether they are carried out in a dense urban environment vs a less-dense environment.

It sounds like people are implying that density has NO effect on the spread of a virus, but common sense would indicate that, with all other factors (other than complete isolation) being equal, it does.

If you are offended by another poster's comment just say it. No need to make false implications.

[Citizen_Bane]

I'm of the opinion that individual behavior is a much larger issue than is density in the spread of disease. Individual characteristics such as belligerence, selfishness and the general lack of caring for others in our increasingly competitive dog eat dog society are more to blame. And isn't it urban sprawl that is dislodging wildlife from their homes forcing the mix of various viruses and species?

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

OK, so it appears that some are arguing that viruses tend to spread more easily in less dense suburban areas, and perhaps rural areas than dense urban areas?

Can you explain the scientific facts that support that theory?

I don't think anyone said. But I DO expect that in a few weeks or months we'll see that a lot of suburban and rural areas have some of the highest per-capita infection rates. The New York Times has a map showing per-capita infection rates, and there are lots of off-the-beaten path rural-looking areas well-represented.)

Big cities being the early hostpots makes sense--they're hubs of travel, both domestic and international. But it doesn't follow that they're necessarily more prone to spreading infection in the long run. Besides transit, admittedly, urban density doesn't place people in close and meaningful contact in the way that facilitates viral spread. Fleeting sidewalk interactions are unlikely to be a meaningful source of infection. And things like crowded housing, public gatherings, stores, restaurants and bars are as present in less-dense places as in dense cities. Evne in NYC, Queens and Staten Island have higher rates of infection than Manhattan, so there's definitely not a direct correlation between density and disease.

It'll be interesting to see what the data shows in a few months.

[alps]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

If you are offended by another poster's comment just say it. No need to make false implications.

I don't understand what you are talking about.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by eastcoastal

I guess then your mantra ought to be "culture kills" or "politics kills?"

Asian culture is more deferential to authority. I thought that was generally well know.
Canadian culture is quite different to the culture of our southern neighbours as is their constitution.

I don't know if your comment is an indication that you don't understand the difference between cultures or a lack of knowledge or just gentle humour.

[Colin May]

Manhattan folks fled to their cottages.
If you live in a multi storey apartment building you will use an elevator where social distancing is impossible.
Dense cities also have many poor people living in poor housing and close to one another with many opportunities for spread of disease and that is why infectious disease hospitals were built outside a city/town centre. Mental health hospitals were often located on a large property where patients could walk in gardens or grow vegetables.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I don't think anyone said. But I DO expect that in a few weeks or months we'll see that a lot of suburban and rural areas have some of the highest per-capita infection rates. The New York Times has a map showing per-capita infection rates, and there are lots of off-the-beaten path rural-looking areas well-represented.)

Big cities being the early hostpots makes sense--they're hubs of travel, both domestic and international. But it doesn't follow that they're necessarily more prone to spreading infection in the long run. Besides transit, admittedly, urban density doesn't place people in close and meaningful contact in the way that facilitates viral spread. Fleeting sidewalk interactions are unlikely to be a meaningful source of infection. And things like crowded housing, public gatherings, stores, restaurants and bars are as present in less-dense places as in dense cities. Evne in NYC, Queens and Staten Island have higher rates of infection than Manhattan, so there's definitely not a direct correlation between density and disease.

It'll be interesting to see what the data shows in a few months.

It will be interesting to see what the data shows.

One would think that the general concepts of crowded urban living that are a necessary condition of the situation, i.e. propensity to use transit, vs private vehicle, living in apartments/condos where it is not always possible to exercise social distancing such as in hallways, elevators, and lobbies etc. would lead to statistically more exposure circumstances. In the suburbs, where typically there would be more single family houses (though apartments and condos still are a good percentage of the population density), one has the potential to have less exposure possibilities.

I think that there are a number of factors that can be written off as being the same or similar, or removed due to current protocols, such as grocery stores (everybody need groceries), bars and restaurants (closed in most places), etc.

As mentioned, adherence to protocols have a more direct effect than physical situations, I think, because many of those protocols are designed with dense urban areas in mind. Probably what will be more telling is what happens when those protocols are relaxed - will a 'second wave', if it happens, be more pronounced in denser areas - one would think yes, but as you say the data will show it out, perhaps. Or not.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by alps

I don't understand what you are talking about.

I don't think I need to explain it. I was being quite clear.

[eastcoastal]

Originally Posted by Colin May

Asian culture is more deferential to authority. I thought that was generally well know.
Canadian culture is quite different to the culture of our southern neighbours as is their constitution.

I don't know if your comment is an indication that you don't understand the difference between cultures or a lack of knowledge or just gentle humour.

... lol... sorry. Gentle humour (as humourous as a plague may be). It really is a combination of factors. If we say "density kills," we might as well say "being old kills," "dirty fingers kill," "multi-generational housing kills," "being poor and black kills," "being a Floridian kills," "Italian cheeck-kisses-hello kill," and so on.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Colin May

Manhattan folks fled to their cottages.
If you live in a multi storey apartment building you will use an elevator where social distancing is impossible.
Dense cities also have many poor people living in poor housing and close to one another with many opportunities for spread of disease and that is why infectious disease hospitals were built outside a city/town centre. Mental health hospitals were often located on a large property where patients could walk in gardens or grow vegetables.

Did they ever Colin, including here in Nova Scotia. The number of American Chester property Owners suddenly started registering with the Halifax Consulate in March. They plan to be here until September at least.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Did they ever Colin, including here in Nova Scotia. The number of American Chester property Owners suddenly started registering with the Halifax Consulate in March. They plan to be here until September at least.

That is quite a scoop. Better than fleeing to the Hamptons. The coastal winds and the weather systems that pass through our area are an added bonus for those fleeing the plague.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Colin May

Manhattan folks fled to their cottages.
If you live in a multi storey apartment building you will use an elevator where social distancing is impossible.
Dense cities also have many poor people living in poor housing and close to one another with many opportunities for spread of disease and that is why infectious disease hospitals were built outside a city/town centre. Mental health hospitals were often located on a large property where patients could walk in gardens or grow vegetables.

You're describing a Victorian urban paradigm where cities are full of overcrowded slum housing and poor sanitation. That's not what cities look like today; if anything, many remote and northern communities are more like that now. Which points to the fact that overcrowded housing is the real problem, not density in general.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

You're describing a Victorian urban paradigm where cities are full of overcrowded slum housing and poor sanitation. That's not what cities look like today; if anything, many remote and northern communities are more like that now. Which points to the fact that overcrowded housing is the real problem, not density in general.

Yes, evil density is why we find such poor health in Manhattan billionaire condo towers while rural folks in trailers are doing great.

When it comes to COVID-19 there are so many variables that even experts have a limited understanding of what leads to transmission or how those risks could be mitigated. We are fumbling around in the dark with the closures. Hopefully we'll learn more in the coming months. People who say they know why Italy or New York got hit hard while France or Guangzhou didn't get hit as hard are just inventing post hoc theories to fit the data, which is not the same as understanding a phenomenon or making predictions.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by someone123

People who say they know why Italy or New York got hit hard while France or Guangzhou didn't get hit as hard are just inventing post hoc theories to fit the data, which is not the same as understanding a phenomenon or making predictions.

Not me. Science and facts are not on your side. Would you have jumped on the New York or London subway a few weeks ago and gone to work every day ?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Colin May

Not me. Science and facts are not on your side. Would you have jumped on the New York or London subway a few weeks ago and gone to work every day ?

If science and facts are on your side then you're being pretty miserly in sharing them with the rest of us. If you do understand the transmission characteristics well then I wonder why you did not share this knowledge with public health authorities. They still don't have a great handle on transmission characteristics and this is why there are so many blanket shutdowns.