The Vancouver Business Thread

[logicbomb]

We are so royally fucked. This recession is going to speed up automation. A lot of jobs have vanished and are no longer coming back.

The government should immediately hault immigration and refugee intake for 10 years and force people to have 2 or less kids. The country already had too many "passengers" and we are going to see an increase in uselesness.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

I mean, "refusing" is an awfully loaded term, Misher. By your apparent logic, people's employers are likewise refusing to pay them despite most of them still making revenue. Yet we're rightly calling that a calamitous cascading economic crisis due to COVID-19 and not intimating that employers laying off staff are deadbeats for taking advantage of the crisis to save a buck.

For a more accurate quote from the same article, the lede, in fact, consider this:

Goodman Commercial Inc. surveyed a dozen multi-family property owners of varying sizes and found that between 1% and 50% of those landlords’ tenants didn’t pay their rent this month.

source

Not to minimize the impact on commercial landlords experiencing a 50% drop in rental income, but 1-50% is a huge range and we're only talking twelve commercial landlords having been surveyed, so we can hardly consider this statistically significant. It's also not terribly surprising that many, many folks are unable to pay their rent after weeks of dwindling or lost wages (and jobs) and the lag time of the emergency economic aid programs being spun up. The commercial landlords can draw down on their internal reserves and credit facilities, and request repayment flexibility and short-term loans from their creditors to bridge the weeks (or months) before cashflow can recover as affected tenants access and receive emergency financial aid and, hopefully, weather the economic crisis and return to work on the other side.

This quote, "To date, the B.C. and federal governments have not announced any kind of support measure for landlords facing a decline in revenue due to tenants not paying rent.", is also highly dubious. Commercial landlords have the ability to access interest free government-backed loans-with-grants, wage subsidies, direct-to-landlord rent subsidies, lower financing costs through rate cuts, and CMHC troubled asset purchase programs to relieve pressure on creditors and let them offer greater flexibility to manage commercial lending.

If it's an independent unincorporated landlord renting out their basement or rental property, their loss of rental income should let them qualify for the range of individual- and household-based emergency support measures targeted for self-employed folks not eligible for EI. Moreover, they can work with their creditors to defer mortgage payments for their affected rental properties. That's assuming they do not have the ability to float a month without income, which landlords should anticipate from time to time when tenancy ends.

Yeah, it's a misleading click-bait headline. I find that BIV does that a lot.

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

We are so royally fucked. This recession is going to speed up automation. A lot of jobs have vanished and are no longer coming back.

The government should immediately hault immigration and refugee intake for 10 years and force people to have 2 or less kids. The country already had too many "passengers" and we are going to see an increase in uselesness.

Line them up and start shooting all the people that have decided to stay in low paying jobs. And force everyone that has a shitty degree in basket weaving to pick fruit on farms. Worked well in Cambodia

[scryer]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

Line them up and start shooting all the people that have decided to stay in low paying jobs. And force everyone that has a shitty degree in basket weaving to pick fruit on farms. Worked well in Cambodia

I don't really participate in bulls*it threads like this that's rife with panic, fear, and the rest of the boomer blubbering..

But I couldn't help but ask: for the people staying in these low paying jobs, what jobs being offered by the BC (and Vancouver) economy can they aspire to that will support them in the region without having to go and do 7+ years of school?

Yes - I think that we are speeding our way to an automated future for a lot of industries after COVID-19 boils over. We were heading that way anyways, especially for retail, restaurants, and many other industries.

[misher]

Originally Posted by scryer

I don't really participate in bulls*it threads like this that's rife with panic, fear, and the rest of the boomer blubbering..

But I couldn't help but ask: for the people staying in these low paying jobs, what jobs being offered by the BC (and Vancouver) economy can they aspire to that will support them in the region without having to go and do 7+ years of school?

Yes - I think that we are speeding our way to an automated future for a lot of industries after COVID-19 boils over. We were heading that way anyways, especially for retail, restaurants, and many other industries.

Many contractor/construction jobs and property management? Those industries are desperate for workers and you don't need much of an education.

[scryer]

Originally Posted by misher

Many contractor/construction jobs and property management? Those industries are desperate for workers and you don't need much of an education.

Also, to an extent, Tech. But we don't have enough of that to sustain our population.

My point is that BC and Vancouver need to keep up with the times by providing an economy that can support people that live and work in the region.

In the current state of COVID-19, people that were just working to "get by" have lost their jobs. COVID-19 is going to dry up construction jobs eventually (except for those projects being sold overseas) and real estate is also being affected as well because more businesses are either closing up shop or they are changing their business models to be more automated or unnecessary to require a space. Right now what has been approved is getting constructed but by the end of the year we are definitely going to see less proposals because companies are going to want to see how businesses change after COVID-19. In fact I will even be so bold as to predict that we will see less retail and offices in mixed-use buildings because how people are doing business is going to change.

Real Estate is one of BC's biggest economic outputs - and that's honestly not a reliable economy because you need to buyers in order to drive the industry forward. And just to remind you - the world is heading into a depression.

To me it is nothing short of unreal that teachers, cops, and anyone making under 80k/year cannot afford to live in the Metro Vancouver area YET we still have a real estate industry that's doing well, even in a recession? Something doesn't make sense and I feel that we may shape up to have more in common with Panama than people are willing to admit.

[jlousa]

Yes I think we can agree that those jobs don't require much in education, well at least property management.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

Line them up and start shooting all the people that have decided to stay in low paying jobs. And force everyone that has a shitty degree in basket weaving to pick fruit on farms. Worked well in Cambodia

Those life long retail workers dug their own grave. Seriously now...my inlaw has been complaining non stop about her company laying her off. She's 36 and chose a career of make up artistry and is now complaining about falling behind on her rent while buying groceries at Whole Foods. The "aspire to do what you want to do" mantra is why our generation is screwed.

No one should have expected the "good times" to keep on rolling. This should be a warning to the next generation that you ought to pick a career as an essential worker and not aspire to be an Arts Major.

Also please reconsider ever starting up a business that serves to a select niche. My friend dropped 28k in a cafe and is now permanently closing. Acacado toast and coffee for $17? Yeah knew it wouldnt work.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by scryer

Real Estate is one of BC's biggest economic outputs - and that's honestly not a reliable economy because you need to buyers in order to drive the industry forward. And just to remind you - the world is heading into a depression.

To me it is nothing short of unreal that teachers, cops, and anyone making under 80k/year cannot afford to live in the Metro Vancouver area YET we still have a real estate industry that's doing well, even in a recession? Something doesn't make sense and I feel that we may shape up to have more in common with Panama than people are willing to admit.

I don't think anyone knows that we're headed into a depression; it's far too soon to call that. We are just headed into a recession, but it's a very recent change, and the real estate industry will be playing catch up for a while. The response to potential slow-down from governments has been fast, and pretty extreme, so there's credit available. Real estate sales were still strong in the first two weeks of March, then dropped right off. There's a lag time on reporting deals, so many were actually agreed in February, when the economy looked quite different. How deep, or how long the recession will last is entirely unknown at this point. If you think you know how things will play out, I've got shares in a cruise line to sell you.

[cairnstone]

Canada especially Vancouver is a growth pattern and wont change for years ahead. The 3rd world and second world has a huge population of skilled educated people that are feeding our housing boom. There are many groups of jobs that dont require physical sites. I have clients that are mixed up in the world of Data. Be it accountants or video editting or coding or design these jobs are all ones that can be done from home and that pay good money. These are the new Canadians that are moving here. I dont buy that stories that all the condos are for off shore. As if that was the case there would not be a need for a new high school dt and an elementary in olympic village

[misher]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

Canada especially Vancouver is a growth pattern and wont change for years ahead. The 3rd world and second world has a huge population of skilled educated people that are feeding our housing boom. There are many groups of jobs that dont require physical sites. I have clients that are mixed up in the world of Data. Be it accountants or video editting or coding or design these jobs are all ones that can be done from home and that pay good money. These are the new Canadians that are moving here. I dont buy that stories that all the condos are for off shore. As if that was the case there would not be a need for a new high school dt and an elementary in olympic village

Vancouver's empty homes study found that the rate has been decreasing:



Note that this rate does not include exemptions. There are many reasons to exempt a home that records as empty from the stats. Also given how many people scream about rich chinese owning houses and leaving them empty, its funny that there are no stats to support this.

The vacancy rate for Vancouver apartments is 7.2 percent, the study found. That number, while still in line with the national average, represents an estimated 9,750 empty units.

The study utilized 12 years’ of anonymized BC Hydro data to determine volatilities in power consumption that can serve as evidence of empty homes. It focused on long-term vacancies, using a definition that aimed to exclude dwellings that might be left empty for a few months but that still had a valid reason to be considered occupied. For example, it would count a house owned by snowbirds who escape to Arizona for December and January as inhabited.

“Industry experts estimate that most of the real estate speculation taking place in the region is being done by local investors,”

https://www.straight.com/news/653356/emp...till-fails-explain-vancouver-real-estate

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

Line them up and start shooting all the people that have decided to stay in low paying jobs. And force everyone that has a shitty degree in basket weaving to pick fruit on farms. Worked well in Cambodia

Sure, do you want to start with the people working in grocery stores?

How about those chronically underpaid jobs in long term care homes. They generally tend to be new immigrants, because Mr & Mrs Canada don't want to change granny's Depends. What fools they were to go into that line of work.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Those life long retail workers dug their own grave. Seriously now...my inlaw has been complaining non stop about her company laying her off. She's 36 and chose a career of make up artistry and is now complaining about falling behind on her rent while buying groceries at Whole Foods. The "aspire to do what you want to do" mantra is why our generation is screwed.

No one should have expected the "good times" to keep on rolling. This should be a warning to the next generation that you ought to pick a career as an essential worker and not aspire to be an Arts Major.

Also please reconsider ever starting up a business that serves to a select niche. My friend dropped 28k in a cafe and is now permanently closing. Acacado toast and coffee for $17? Yeah knew it wouldnt work.

If your basing your views on how one should make life choices based on a once in a hundred years pandemic, you need to rethink your criteria. We don’t need more miserable people on this planet who based their decisions solely on what was practical.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

If your basing your views on how one should make life choices based on a once in a hundred years pandemic, you need to rethink your criteria. We don’t need more miserable people on this planet who based their decisions solely on what was practical.

Seconded.

Don't be using the exceptions to make the rule.

We have never experienced an economic lock down like this. Things will stabilize and the economy might look a little different.

But don't think that this will overnight change the way global companies think or invest. For there to be a meaningful change an alternative needs to be present.

Whats the option? Companies don't occupy cites and we sprawl infinitely?

City life will continue to be desirable and expensive.

[Migrant_Coconut]

TBF some liberal arts majors are more versatile than others (e.g. Philosophy or Underwater Basket Weaving)... and it's somewhat easier to quit your job and become an author than the other way around.

[whatnext]

Vancouver Aquarium warns it could close permanently:

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) — The Vancouver Aquarium could close for good in two months if it’s unable to secure at least $1 million a month in immediate financial support.

Lasse Gustavsson, CEO of Ocean Wise, which operates the aquarium, said the aquarium is hemorrhaging $3.3 million a month after shutting down due to COVID-19.

He added, Ocean Wise applied for $9.5 million in emergency funding from the federal government three weeks ago, but hasn’t heard back yet...

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/04/15/vancouver-aquarium-warns-it-could-permanently/

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Vancouver Aquarium warns it could close permanently:

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) — The Vancouver Aquarium could close for good in two months if it’s unable to secure at least $1 million a month in immediate financial support.

Lasse Gustavsson, CEO of Ocean Wise, which operates the aquarium, said the aquarium is hemorrhaging $3.3 million a month after shutting down due to COVID-19.

He added, Ocean Wise applied for $9.5 million in emergency funding from the federal government three weeks ago, but hasn’t heard back yet...

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/04/15/vancouver-aquarium-warns-it-could-permanently/

Honestly I think businesses should be required to find ways to make money before seeking government handouts.

The aquarium could just start selling lifetime and VIP memberships among other things and see how that works before it goes on to begging.

Same for the city, why aren't cities offering out density bonuses, faster licensing, etc. to people. Begging should always be last.

I'm sure some homeowners would pay $100k+ to build a laneway house/coach house in their backyard.

The honest truth is, government handouts are now what people try first because they are too easy to get.

The provincial and federal government need to be able to help the people not waste all their money babying others. The cities and public companies need to do their parts by cutting expenses and raising revenues.

[Migrant_Coconut]

North America already tried the Bennett/Hoover approach approximately ninety years ago... didn't work out very well for us.

Exactly how would lifetime memberships net the Aquarium $3.3 million/month, and without severely hurting long-term revenue? How would City Hall make money from developers/builders/homeowners when they're also on lockdown and in the red?

[Xerx]

Construction is already one of the few industries deemed essential, they'll be fine in the short term.

[misher]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

North America already tried the Bennett/Hoover approach approximately ninety years ago... didn't work out very well for us.

Exactly how would lifetime memberships net the Aquarium $3.3 million/month, and without severely hurting long-term revenue? How would City Hall make money from developers/builders/homeowners when they're also on lockdown and in the red?

They might very well hurt long term revenue. And that was just one example.

City hall can do online approvals plus developers and homeowners always have things in mind. Just say your next project you get +0.1 or your money back with interest similar to how we offer a heritage density bonus and sell it online. Hell people might buy it and resell it like crypto.

And again these are examples. My point being to exhaust other options before going to the governments that are desperately borrowing to keep this country afloat and tell them to borrow more or you will collapse.

One obvious example is restaurants, they switched to online models and also many now offer meal kits to cook at home. Some even offer face masks or toilet paper (earls). Good on them for trying new things to stay afloat!