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Originally Posted by FullCircle
All good questions at the end of that article. My very uneducated thoughts are that there is still an unmet demand for housing, so unless things get really bad and people start moving back in with their parents, there will still be a need for housing. However, if many people can't make rent, then while they need housing they won't be able to pay for it. So is another homeless boom coming?
I think hospitality projects will take a huge hit. I see some form of travel restrictions, or just wariness to travel amongst individuals, as lessening demand for hotel rooms for perhaps years to come.
Retail and office will probably be somewhere in between housing and hospitality in terms of impact.
Something definitely going for continued construction of projects is that interest rates are so low and likely going to stay low for a long time, financing will be easier to come by in some respects. It could be hurt in other ways though, such as if banks and lending institutions tank as a result of widespread defaults. And if things continue, labor and/or materials costs could come down as well. Though if materials manufacturers are locked down, that may decrease supply and thus increase prices of materials. Hard to say at this point; everything is so interconnected, you can't predict anything based on how one industry will be affected.
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A few thoughts I had about this subject are the house flipping industry should see a substantial drop in near future purchases while things get sorted out. This should leave more low end housing stock on the market in theory. However this will probably be temporary once uncertainty becomes more clear and investors look to pick up where they left off.
If things get really bad we might see a lot of VRBO Propeties look to either sell or move to a more traditional rental market. There is a surprising amount of VRBO properties along the Wasatch front that might be a wild card if those owners look to long term renters or just up and sell their properties.
It wouldn’t surprise me if there are some long term rental properties that are not well financed coming up for sale if renters miss a few months also.
I think all sorts of economic problems in certain sectors will pop up and it will be interesting to see if and how the federal government thinks it will need to bail it out and how it will be done. This could be very unpredictable for a long time.
The big factor besides the virus will be demand. I think at this point demand will pretty much dry up. I can’t imagine many people are looking to make any big moves for quite some time. There will be investors looking for opportunities but the majority of the public will wait this out for at least a year in my opinion or more.
If an effective treatment or vaccine becomes available and we can return to normal then things will go back quickly. I really don’t see that happening unfortunately.