Phoenix Development News (3)

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by gymratmanaz

I meant, when the Derby crane is up, what would the count be? My bad. Just excited!!!

Im thinking the Battery and Derby cranes will be up before Kennect goes down so we will have 14 tower cranes plus a handful of other cranes.

But Kennect will probably be coming down soon so well be back to 13 for now

But there is still Knipe Village, portrait, Central station (2 cranes) Oniel (potentially a short tower) etc etc Assuming these arent all killed off due to Corona we have another 10 cranes or so in the pipeline.

[exit2lef]

Although I'm primarily working from home during the current situation, I made a brief trip downtown today to check on the facility I manage. I also fit in a quick walk and found that every construction site I encountered was still active. I'm not sure whether to be encouraged that projects are still in motion or concerned that people are still working in close proximity to one another. Either way, it was interesting and surprising to see.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

Although I'm primarily working from home during the current situation, I made a brief trip downtown today to check on the facility I manage. I also fit in a quick walk and found that every construction site I encountered was still active. I'm not sure whether to be encouraged that projects are still in motion or concerned that people are still working in close proximity to one another. Either way, it was interesting and surprising to see.

Most cities and states have maintained construction as essential industry.

Half because construction is so transient that shutting it down instantly would put hundreds of thousands out of work overnight and half because the money has already been spent and we will still need these buildings when this is all over.

[biggus diggus]

Originally Posted by Obadno

because the money has already been spent

This is really all that needs to be said. This is the USA, no one would voluntarily put a hold on their own financial gains. I think it should pause.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

This is really all that needs to be said. This is the USA, no one would voluntarily put a hold on their own financial gains. I think it should pause.

I think all of this is a massive overreaction to be quite honest. Now I know people beyond the service industry getting furloughed and layed off and for what

8 deaths? 500 cases? People like to say we shouldn't put a price on "human life" But thats childish, it does have a price and always had.

Nobody likes to think this way but lest make it a smaller scale. Do you shut down your company if .2% of your employees might die in the next couple of months?

Probably not. How much suffering should we really impose on the population over all of this? Especially considering that the vast vast majority of those who will die are retired people. I know its sad but we have millions of people now out of work to stop thousands of 70 and 80 year olds from dying?

Its not a reasonable action.

[ASU Diablo]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I think all of this is a massive overreaction to be quite honest. Now I know people beyond the service industry getting furloughed and layed off and for what

8 deaths? 500 cases? People like to say we shouldn't put a price on "human life" But thats childish, it does have a price and always had.

Nobody likes to think this way but lest make it a smaller scale. Do you shut down your company if .2% of your employees might die in the next couple of months?

Probably not. How much suffering should we really impose on the population over all of this? Especially considering that the vast vast majority of those who will die are retired people. I know its sad but we have millions of people now out of work to stop thousands of 70 and 80 year olds from dying?

Its not a reasonable action.

Horrible take ur parents say hi

[phoenixheadphones]

Originally Posted by Obadno

8 deaths? 500 cases? People like to say we shouldn't put a price on "human life" But thats childish, it does have a price and always had.

Probably not. How much suffering should we really impose on the population over all of this? Especially considering that the vast vast majority of those who will die are retired people. I know its sad but we have millions of people now out of work to stop thousands of 70 and 80 year olds from dying?

Its not a reasonable action.

What a profound misunderstanding of the problem and a heartless way of thinking.

[Obadno]

Emotional appeals arent arguments boys and girls.

These are the kinds of questions you should be asking

[biggus diggus]

This can be a very complex and lengthy discussion and if we, as a group, think we can keep it civil then I wouldn't be opposed to participating a virus discussion topic, I think this thread isn't the place and I expect shawn to delete our musings again, rightfully so.

To the people saying obadno is heartless, it's not that simple. This is uncharted territory. The great depression was responsible for an immense amount of suffering and death, there are people arguing that heading down that road might actually be more destructive than letting the virus play out naturally. None of us know. Are you guys epidemiologists or economists? I'm neither, I'm just a guy. It's worth looking at both sides of the argument.

But basically this is the USA, someone's already dumped millions of dollars into something and they aren't pulling the plug unless required. We live in a capitalist country. I'm interested to see what effect all of this has on the future of capitalism.

[CrestedSaguaro]

Looks like the Kenect crane is coming down this weekend. Earlier than I anticipated.

Derby is putting the base in though. So crane count will stay the same.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

This can be a very complex and lengthy discussion and if we, as a group, think we can keep it civil then I wouldn't be opposed to participating a virus discussion topic, I think this thread isn't the place and I expect shawn to delete our musings again, rightfully so.

To the people saying obadno is heartless, it's not that simple. This is uncharted territory. The great depression was responsible for an immense amount of suffering and death, there are people arguing that heading down that road might actually be more destructive than letting the virus play out naturally. None of us know. Are you guys epidemiologists or economists? I'm neither, I'm just a guy. It's worth looking at both sides of the argument.

But basically this is the USA, someone's already dumped millions of dollars into something and they aren't pulling the plug unless required. We live in a capitalist country. I'm interested to see what effect all of this has on the future of capitalism.

I dont think you will see an impact on "capitalism" I think you will see increased support for state welfare overall (unfortunately in my opinion but thats what I expect). Adopting a single payer system does not really have anything to do with this pandemic but I expect it to eventually happen sooner or later (or something close). I would also not be surprised to see general social welfare support increase, don't expect the expansions to Unemployment insurance to ever go away or some form of guaranteed income for people who cant work etc.

But I also suspect you will see people generally turn against globalist concepts that have dominated recent decades. For PR alone companies are going to actively look to re-domesticate supply chains, workers and manufacturing, and if they cant get it in the US they'll do it in Mexico or SE Asia, anything to distance themselves form China.

In general you'll see countries get stricter on immigration and travel, I think you'll see the EU's decline rapidly accelerate and I think you will see a the "Chinese Century" fail to ever materialize.

In the long term I think we will head into a world that looks a lot more like 1890 than it does like 1990. The post WW2 modern paradigm was already coming apart and its really going to change over the next couple of years.

What any of this means culturally is hard to say but its safe to assume that this is a major event for how the world has reacted to it even if overall the deaths are fairly minor. What I think is interesting is our "solution" if you can call it that as a society will be a sort of grab bag of various conservative and progressive ideas.

Maybe thatll be good or bad, I cant say for sure. Economically everyone's been worried about the next "recession" well here it is. Will it be better as short and extreme vs something a little longer but more shallow in a year or two as people expected? Another thing that we can only speculate on.

[biggus diggus]

My hope is that we come out of this whole and that there are lessons to be learned about how to take care of one another. I'm not much of an activist by any means but there's a gaping hole in this country's compassion that I wish we could fix, hopefully this pushes us into it. I make plenty of money, I'm not really worried about it, yet there are plenty of people who can't afford medical insurance or treatment. If I had to pay 5% more in taxes and someone else got medical insurance I would feel great about what I'm doing. Unfortunately all the guys with more money than me don't feel the same. It's sad. I hope this exposes it.

[PHXFlyer11]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

My hope is that we come out of this whole and that there are lessons to be learned about how to take care of one another. I'm not much of an activist by any means but there's a gaping hole in this country's compassion that I wish we could fix, hopefully this pushes us into it. I make plenty of money, I'm not really worried about it, yet there are plenty of people who can't afford medical insurance or treatment. If I had to pay 5% more in taxes and someone else got medical insurance I would feel great about what I'm doing. Unfortunately all the guys with more money than me don't feel the same. It's sad. I hope this exposes it.

I do feel this is bringing people together -- which is some good to come out of this. Those that want to play politics at this time seem increasing isolated and out of touch.

I don't think it's about paying a % more. Socialized medicine has not worked and is actually much more expensive that what we are paying now. The other issue is that you open up a whole new can of worms that positions government a safety net for those who don't take personal responsibility. Are there those that absolutely need help? Of course. Should we help them? Yes, but with limits. At some point people need to take person responsibility.

It's embarrassing frankly that so much of this country doesn't have enough to pay next month's bills. I promise you they all have the latest iPhone, a $30K vehicle, a pair of Jordan's and eat out every meal. We've become a very entitled society. The government's job is not to bail us out, especially a few weeks in. I do understand that industry's like airlines and aviation burn tremendous amounts of capital and couldn't possibly save enough on their balance sheets to survive months of business shutting off. I think they need help, BUT I do agree that they shouldn't be allowed to do stock buy backs and need to be required to have several months of working capital on their balance sheets going forward if they take government assistance. I also expect us taxpayers to be paid back with interest.

[dtnphx]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I think all of this is a massive overreaction to be quite honest. Now I know people beyond the service industry getting furloughed and layed off and for what

8 deaths? 500 cases? People like to say we shouldn't put a price on "human life" But thats childish, it does have a price and always had.

Nobody likes to think this way but lest make it a smaller scale. Do you shut down your company if .2% of your employees might die in the next couple of months?

Probably not. How much suffering should we really impose on the population over all of this? Especially considering that the vast vast majority of those who will die are retired people. I know its sad but we have millions of people now out of work to stop thousands of 70 and 80 year olds from dying?

Its not a reasonable action.

Until it's your —. Or someone you love. What then, you'll still think your theory will comfort you. You seem soulless and disconnected on a human level so many times during discussions, so this doesn't surprise me. Don't bother to respond. I'm already dead.

[combusean]

I have the patience for significant COVID-19 discussions here much like I do any other political discussion.

Keep it off this place or there will be mass deletions and suspensions or bans of those that don't follow orders.

There are MANY other places on the Internet to debate this, even though it shouldn't be, unless I arbitrarily find it relevant and I trust you all to do the same.



And yes, I'm a little grumpy after sheltering in place longer than anyone else has in Phoenix.

[PHXFlyer11]

Originally Posted by combusean

I have the patience for significant COVID-19 discussions here much like I do any other political discussion.

Keep it off this place or there will be mass deletions and suspensions or bans of those that don't follow orders.

There are MANY other places on the Internet to debate this, even though it shouldn't be, unless I arbitrarily find it relevant and I trust you all to do the same.



And yes, I'm a little grumpy after sheltering in place longer than anyone else has in Phoenix.

Just delete them. Clutters up the place -- and i'm saying that acknowledging that i partly contributed to the discussion

[fawd]

Originally Posted by combusean

I have the patience for significant COVID-19 discussions here much like I do any other political discussion.

Its relevant. Covid is having a major effect on the global, national, and local economy.. and therefore may, or may not, have an effect on current/future developments.

Originally Posted by combusean

or there will be mass deletions and suspensions or bans of those that don't follow orders.

[DesertRay]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Emotional appeals arent arguments boys and girls.

These are the kinds of questions you should be asking

Aristotle disagrees (in The Rhetoric). Aristotle separated arguments into three main kinds: ethos (character/reputation/authority), pathos (emotional), and logos (sequential). All are legitimate. The emotions are really the intuitive nervous system, and no more manipulable than logos appeals. Daniel Kahneman got the Nobel in Economics for creating an entire field (behavioral economics) that proved that what we think of as solid reasoning is just a knee-jerk set of heuristics (he calls it "fast thinking") that is mathematically and scientifically incorrect. He just switched the way he asked questions of people (same question--different wording), and got radically different answers. People (including him) don't think--we just do quick intuitions, and claim that we have done the thinking. The emotions are subject to similar weaknesses, but that apparatus has actually kept us alive as a species a LOT longer, since we didn't highly develop our cognition (language, reasoning) until pretty late in the game. Emotion is definitely a legitimate argumentative strategy--perhaps the most legitimate. Don't trust me--read Aristotle.

BTW, I'm OK if all of this gets nuked. I just thought y'all might want to know what dusty crypt Aristotle had to say on the matter.

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by CrestedSaguaro

Looks like the Kenect crane is coming down this weekend. Earlier than I anticipated.

Derby is putting the base in though. So crane count will stay the same.

Just in case everyone missed this

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by DesertRay

Aristotle disagrees (in The Rhetoric). Aristotle separated arguments into three main kinds: ethos (character/reputation/authority), pathos (emotional), and logos (sequential). All are legitimate. The emotions are really the intuitive nervous system, and no more manipulable than logos appeals. Daniel Kahneman got the Nobel in Economics for creating an entire field (behavioral economics) that proved that what we think of as solid reasoning is just a knee-jerk set of heuristics (he calls it "fast thinking") that is mathematically and scientifically incorrect. He just switched the way he asked questions of people (same question--different wording), and got radically different answers. People (including him) don't think--we just do quick intuitions, and claim that we have done the thinking. The emotions are subject to similar weaknesses, but that apparatus has actually kept us alive as a species a LOT longer, since we didn't highly develop our cognition (language, reasoning) until pretty late in the game. Emotion is definitely a legitimate argumentative strategy--perhaps the most legitimate. Don't trust me--read Aristotle.

BTW, I'm OK if all of this gets nuked. I just thought y'all might want to know what dusty crypt Aristotle had to say on the matter.

Considering Aristotle didn’t live through the plague of Athens and he personally tutored a genocidal megalomaniac named Alexander maybe his musings aren’t necessarily always correct. Furthermore (character assassination Aside) we were not discussing something that lends itself to emotional outbursts. I am far from an expert on Aristotle however what I have read leads me to believe that he’s be more in my camp than the other. Just an opinion.

As for emotional reactions I agree that it is quite obviously instinct is some sort of built in survival mechanism, however I don’t agree that because emotions are part of our survival strategy as individuals that they are valid for making group (society wide) decisions

There are many things things we do as humans that are, evolutionarily speaking, disadvantageous to the individual or even “family” or “community” small group. but are beneficial overall. And while humans are “social” animals we are not a hive, and thus do not have the sort of natural instincts to protect the greater good beyond our immediate..

So while appreciate your justification for emotional appeal I do not think it’s relevant to the topic which is, should we really destroy our society economically to save a bunch of old people who had only a few years left anyway. Instincts to protect grandma while deeply harming the the national health are foolish and dangerous.