Metro Vancouver Transit Discussion

[s211]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

Yes, but personal debt and government debt are two very different things. Individuals who go into debt to pay for "luxury" items - a new TV, an expensive trip, and so on - are playing a risky game. Governments that take on debt in order to finance public infrastructure - projects that will benefit the taxpayers for decades - are leveraging their size and financial clout to develop these things long before they could otherwise be done if we had to wait for them to be fully paid for prior to construction.

If governments weren't — dollars every year on debt interest, then they'd be in a much stronger position to use tax inflows to accomplish program objectives.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by Aroundtheworld

The most realistic thing to do is to extend the West Coast Express from Mission to Abbotsford and try to make it all-day, both directions between Abbotsford and Coquitlam Central.

I doubt that will cost anywhere $8 B. We'll also see where there is actually demand for people for that kind of travel by transit.

It is a complete nightmare from an urban planning perspective since Abbotsford is perfectly designed for the automobile. Many neighborhoods lack sidewalks and pedestrian pathways. Every business or outlet has large parking lots. The built form is a total mess since farmland and the freeway fragment the region as well. Any rail system would require multiple stops and complete urban re-designs of the town centers.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by s211

If governments weren't — dollars every year on debt interest, then they'd be in a much stronger position to use tax inflows to accomplish program objectives.

So we should save up for 20 years to buy a UBC Subway, or borrow money and build it today?

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by s211

If governments weren't — dollars every year on debt interest, then they'd be in a much stronger position to use tax inflows to accomplish program objectives.

Debt interest can be offset by the economic gains from investing in the province's infrastructure at an earlier time.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

So we should save up for 20 years to buy a UBC Subway, or borrow money and build it today?

Don't know why, but I thought "sandwich shop" (as in franchise) when I read that!

[nname]

Agenda for next week's Mayors Council is posted online:

https://www.translink.ca/-/media/Documen...ors-Council--PUBLIC-MTG--Jan-30-2020.pdf

See page 17 for the update on Surrey Langley Skytrain

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by s211

If governments weren't — dollars every year on debt interest, then they'd be in a much stronger position to use tax inflows to accomplish program objectives.

A hundred years of economics has demonstrated that spending improves the budget and austerity makes it worse.

Originally Posted by logicbomb

It is a complete nightmare from an urban planning perspective since Abbotsford is perfectly designed for the automobile. Many neighborhoods lack sidewalks and pedestrian pathways. Every business or outlet has large parking lots. The built form is a total mess since farmland and the freeway fragment the region as well. Any rail system would require multiple stops and complete urban re-designs of the town centers.

So that's why they need eight billion...

[Xerx]

Originally Posted by officedweller

I think we missed this:

Bombardier in talks to combine rail unit with competitor Alstom
https://business.financialpost.com/trans...al&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1579635559

The EU last year rejected a merger deal between Alstom and Siemens over competition fears, I can't see them changing their minds on the rolling stock industry now.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by Xerx

The EU last year rejected a merger deal between Alstom and Siemens over competition fears, I can't see them changing their minds on the rolling stock industry now.

I guess they have different market shares in different segments which might let them make a deal.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alsto...r-tie-up-talk-shares-rally-idUSKCN1PV1K9

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

I guess they have different market shares in different segments which might let them make a deal.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alsto...r-tie-up-talk-shares-rally-idUSKCN1PV1K9

On top of that, Bombardier is struggling, big time. Much like their commercial aviation business, I fully expect that Bombardier will eventually pull out, or significantly downsize their portfolio because of their struggles.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

A hundred years of economics has demonstrated that spending improves the budget and austerity makes it worse.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/51/Greek_debt_and_EU_average.png

It’s also more compact overall in built area than other suburbs in Metro Van(ToL,Delta)- there’s only 1 blob of urban land, not >2- so it kind of balances out.

Problem is people actually don’t regularly travel much from Vancouver to Abbotsford to begin with to get a rail line to recoup the costs. A ton of traffic are people going even further (Chilliwack or the Interior).

[Migrant_Coconut]

Obviously, you want to control your debt-to-GDP ratio with good investments and minimize corruption. But stimulus packages work, and tax increases & spending cuts don't - just ask America in '33 or the rest of Europe in '08. That's Keynes 101.

I believe the $8 billion is for Abby and Chilliwack. That said, yes, I don't think most of us expect enough ridership or growth to justify that kind of spending.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Obviously, you want to control your debt-to-GDP ratio with good investments and minimize corruption. But stimulus packages work, and tax increases & spending cuts don't - just ask America in '33 or the rest of Europe in '08. That's Keynes 101.

I believe the $8 billion is for Abby and Chilliwack. That said, yes, I don't think most of us expect enough ridership or growth to justify that kind of spending.

You said it doesn't improve the budget. That's blatantly wrong.

There isn't anything wrong at just keeping the surplus, since Keynes 101 also dictates to reduce debts during economic booms. This is one.

I doubt we need $8B. Maybe $3B at most. Between Abby and Chilliwack, you can use the HWY1 Median (we definitely don't need ALL of it), and you can use Robertson Cres (the old GNR ROW) or the SRY ROW (Fraser is a pain to widen) to Langley, depending on how much money you want to splurge. Trying to get coverage in Abby without either a BRT system or getting a LRT-style east-west connection though Abbostford is on the other hand...

This is probably a good place for Tram-Train (Tram inside Abbostford and Chilliwack proper, Train everywhere else), if you're willing to hemorrhage $$$ per rider in exchange for inter-regional integration and economic/development goals.

It could be upgraded to a more grade-seperated system once frequencies>5min. It should be ~6444 pphpd before you need that though, assuming 80m trains (maybe 50m is more realistic to get to the minimum Abby block length- meaning 4027pphpd- either way, that's quite a bit higher than mixed-traffic artics (2x) and probably enough for a couple decades at least.) I didn't do any serious depth in my research on those numbers yet though.

I did some back of the envelope calcs arguing against Zwei (ew) about the idea: http://www.railforthevalley.com/latest-n...-horgan-and-translink-why-not-tramtrain/

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by fredinno

I doubt we need $8B. Maybe $3B at most. Between Abby and Chilliwack, you can use the HWY1 Median (we definitely don't need ALL of it), and you can use Robertson Cres (the old GNR ROW) or the SRY ROW (Fraser is a pain to widen) to Langley, depending on how much money you want to splurge.

Now I've got this GnR song stuck in my head.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by fredinno

You said it doesn't improve the budget. That's blatantly wrong.

There isn't anything wrong at just keeping the surplus, since Keynes 101 also dictates to reduce debts during economic booms. This is one.

I doubt we need $8B. Maybe $3B at most. Between Abby and Chilliwack, you can use the HWY1 Median (we definitely don't need ALL of it), and you can use Robertson Cres (the old GNR ROW) or the SRY ROW (Fraser is a pain to widen) to Langley, depending on how much money you want to splurge. Trying to get coverage in Abby without either a BRT system or getting a LRT-style east-west connection though Abbostford is on the other hand...

This is probably a good place for Tram-Train (Tram inside Abbostford and Chilliwack proper, Train everywhere else), if you're willing to hemorrhage $$$ per rider in exchange for inter-regional integration and economic/development goals.

It could be upgraded to a more grade-seperated system once frequencies>5min. It should be ~6444 pphpd before you need that though, assuming 80m trains (maybe 50m is more realistic to get to the minimum Abby block length- meaning 4027pphpd- either way, that's quite a bit higher than mixed-traffic artics (2x) and probably enough for a couple decades at least.) I didn't do any serious depth in my research on those numbers yet though.

I did some back of the envelope calcs arguing against Zwei (ew) about the idea: http://www.railforthevalley.com/latest-n...-horgan-and-translink-why-not-tramtrain/

And it didn't. Greece's austerity measures made things even worse; now Athens has 20,000 homeless, almost 10x Vancouver's. Spending your way to recovery worked for FDR and Obama just fine. Of course nobody's arguing that we should be creating deficits in the middle of a surplus, but a little extra spending that pays off a decade later isn't going to hurt anybody.

Sure, but then when why not ask to just borrow $3B? Sounds like Abbotsford wants a brand new ROW. I'm with ATW last page - just extend the WCE and call it a day.

Originally Posted by Sheba

Now I've got this GnR song stuck in my head.

Not Crazy Train? With an eight billion pitch, they're definitely going off the rails.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

And it didn't. Greece's austerity measures made things even worse; now Athens has 20,000 homeless, almost 10x Vancouver's. Spending your way to recovery worked for FDR and Obama just fine. Of course nobody's arguing that we should be creating deficits in the middle of a surplus, but a little extra spending that pays off a decade later isn't going to hurt anybody.

Sure, but then when why not ask to just borrow $3B? Sounds like Abbotsford wants a brand new ROW. I'm with ATW last page - just extend the WCE and call it a day.



Not Crazy Train? With an eight billion pitch, they're definitely going off the rails.

And you'd achieve few of the secondary goals you would want to achieve with such a system. The few people that go to Metro Van are generally going to SoF.


Austerity began in 2010. It was either that or default when Greece entered a Debt Spiral... Considering the federal government went from massive deficit to surplus in a couple years, I'm not surprised it created an economic crisis.

Obviously this isn't BC now, but you need to stop conflating public deficits and the economy. The economy is doing well in the USA, but public books have never looked worse.

[Reecemartin]

[Deleted]

[Reecemartin]

[Deleted]

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by fredinno

And you'd achieve few of the secondary goals you would want to achieve with such a system. The few people that go to Metro Van are generally going to SoF.

Austerity began in 2010. It was either that or default when Greece entered a Debt Spiral... Considering the federal government went from massive deficit to surplus in a couple years, I'm not surprised it created an economic crisis.

Obviously this isn't BC now, but you need to stop conflating public deficits and the economy. The economy is doing well in the USA, but public books have never looked worse.

Austerity was tacked on by the EU as a mandatory part of the bailout, and pretty much everybody agrees that it made a bad situation worse.

As for America, the post-stimulus federal deficit also went back to normal(ish) - it only shot back up around 2016.

I'll cede the WCE, but if most commuters are going SoF, then there's already the FVX - that's nowhere near capacity, and expansion/bus lanes/highway widening should be less than $3B.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Reecemartin

On another note, has there been any discussion in recent years of expanding Night Bus Service? In particular, the service South of the Fraser (there's basically none) is shocking to me moving back to Van from Ontario where a number of the smaller cities have started night bus services, especially around Toronto.

I really hope it isn't too long from now when we see night bus routes even on hourly frequencies on the 321 and 501 routings, you'd cover a large amount of the SOF population.

So far they've tended to put Night Buses on routes that are B-Lines (now RapidBus) or parallel the Skytrain lines. Hopefully that means both the 321 and 501 are on their radar. It would be nice to see a smaller 'central hub' in downtown Surrey like there is in downtown Vancouver.