The Great Canadian Sports Attendance, Marketing and TV Ratings Thread

[thurmas]

Hockey participation in Canada on the other hand is falling at an alarming rate as there are 100,000 less kids playing in Canada than just 5 years ago from 721,000 to 621,000 a 14% drop in participation.Yet very few talk about that.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282125/number-of-registered-ice-hockey-players-in-canada/

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

May as well setup shop then in Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, as I’m sure that they’d all get close to the numbers you’d predict for Toronto. And even if they don’t, they’d still be turning a profit regardless because of the TV deal the NFL has... that’s how it works, right?

Toronto has a much bigger corporate support base than those cities... and that's crucial. Also Toronto drives the TV market in Canada - and the franchise and the league wants the maximum amount of exposure possible in the country. THAT's how it works.

Plus the Raptors success has opened the eyes of many in the NFL. The NFL has a problem with fan diversity... it's still largely a white fanbase (83% at last count). During the Raptors run people saw the massive diversity of its fanbase - and Toronto's been called the most multicultural city in the world - which is very attractive to leagues who need to expand their base.

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

They aren't the best leagues, but they are the best leagues available here.

I have a sneaking suspicion that if TFC were in the actual best soccer league in North America ("available here") that they wouldn't get much support. The NFL isn't available here either. Toronto's best-or-nothing attitude is the opposite of what the NFL wants.

Originally Posted by esquire

Toronto... the world's only NFL city that cannot actually attract a NFL team despite 30+ years of trying.

That's because it's not an NFL city.

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Quebecor balked at paying the price 4 or 5 years ago, and thus Seattle is going to take the place that QC would have had. The fact that Edmonton and Ottawa still have teams, Winnipeg got theirs back and QC could have got their backs shows the NHL and Bettman aren't as anti-Canada as the popular opinion seems to be.

"Quebecor, the group leading the way for an expansion franchise for Quebec City, officially submitted their $500 million NHL expansion application in July of 2015"
The Senators are more valuable than the Avalanche, Predators, Hurricanes, Sabres, Blue Jackets, Panthers, and Coyotes. The Oilers are in the top half of the league for value.

Originally Posted by JHikka

What does this have to do with how the NHL treats Canadian franchises? Are you suggesting the NHL set up shop in Sudbury or Corner Brook?

Straw man. I never said anything like that. In nearly every top level professional league, cities with a few hundred thousand people have teams. Including leagues worth a lot more than the NHL.

Originally Posted by JHikka

Firstly, we don't, and likely never will.

Would you like me to explain the definition of "hypothetical" to you?

Originally Posted by JHikka

Secondly, sure, but you know Canadian teams could presumably be removed from the picture altogether in this scenario, too, right? Canadian teams aren't exactly at a competitive balance when it comes to American competition on a number of fronts, not the least of which being that more people play hockey in the US than in Canada and that the Canadian dollar is valued at 25% less than its American counterpart.

And yet Canadian teams are, on average, more valuable than American ones.

A typical promotion/relegation system rewards demand and allows teams able to spend money to play their way into the next tier. The bottom feeders are usually the teams worth the least. A system like that would see more Canadian teams at the top level and fewer in the US. There's no way that Miami and Phoenix would be there for example.

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

Sorry for wanting the best. When you live in a city that has teams in every major league but one what do you expect? Also Toronto is a global city with a population with more then 50% born outside Canada. People come here knowing the major leagues and following them if they're into sports.

Toronto doesn't have teams in every major league but one.

This mythical "global city" you want Toronto to be that only supports "the best" doesn't exist. No global city only supports "the best". Not New York. Not London. Not Tokyo. Not Moscow. Global cities don't shun their own country trying to chase "the best".

This aspiration for an imaginary standard shows how immature sports fandom is in this city.

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

TV deal pays about a billion per team over 8 years. Salary cap is projected to be $200m per team in 2020. TV deal is great for those already owning a team. When you have to spend over 3 billion to buy a team and build a stadium, the numbers get a little more difficult.

Yea, I'm not counting stadium cost into the equation... was mostly talking about attendance and the size of the stadium Toronto would have if they were to get a stadium built. But with the TV money coming in - each team gets around 255m per team - so that covers the salary cap with some money left over. The ticket revenue generated goes a long way towards cutting into stadium and other costs. It's still a pricey proposition - but not as bad as you would think.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by thurmas

There are over 1 million American kids who play tackle football every year in the U.S. in high school. There was a 3% drop in participation yes but that still mean a massive amount of players every year to scout and choose from to get into the college ranks every year.

It was a 10% decline over the past decade, at a time when basketball, baseball, and soccer increased.

Originally Posted by thurmas

Gridiron football will not die it will just have to evolve and may eventually mean tackling switches to a more rugby type style and helmets may be eliminated as they are more of a safety hazard and weapon than an actual safety mechanism.

Sounds like kids should just play rugby, then.

Originally Posted by thurmas

Hockey participation in Canada on the other hand is falling at an alarming rate as there are 100,000 less kids playing in Canada than just 5 years ago from 721,000 to 621,000 a 14% drop in participation.Yet very few talk about that.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282125/number-of-registered-ice-hockey-players-in-canada/

A lot of people talk about declining youth hockey participation, actually. It's an inherently expensive sport with extreme demographic issues.

IIHF figures are...spotty, at best. It would be better to get numbers directly from Hockey Canada. Utilizing Hockey Canada's annual report yields that 521K players are officially registered to play hockey in Canada in 2019, up from 498K in 2009 but down from the high of 537K in 2013. (As an aside, and something i've mentioned on this forum before, is the relative decline of hockey being played in Quebec, down to 86K players from a high of 98K in 2012).

This is only male numbers, of course. Female hockey participation is still increasing at a very high rate. And, on top of all of this, US hockey registration numbers are still increasing with continued room to grow. So male hockey has essentially plateaued in Canada with growth still possible in the US.

Originally Posted by Mister F

A typical promotion/relegation system rewards demand and allows teams able to spend money to play their way into the next tier. The bottom feeders are usually the teams worth the least. A system like that would see more Canadian teams at the top level and fewer in the US. There's no way that Miami and Phoenix would be there for example.

I'm not saying that pro/rel is an inherently worse system, because it isn't; i'm saying it's not going to be implemented in North America in our lifetimes. I fully understand the concept of an open system of association clubs. I hope you understand that such a system would inherently hold the NHL back due to Canada's lesser international value and would hold the sport back from growth in the US that it needs to maintain its current level of play.

Originally Posted by Mister F

And yet Canadian teams are, on average, more valuable than American ones.

I have a difficult time imagining that hypothetical NHL teams in Kingston or Brandon would be valued higher than Colorado or Carolina, or that if the Toronto market was cut four ways that all four teams would persist with that high of a valuation.

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

The 3rd most populated metro in NA would get an attendance worthy of last place in the NFL. All at the same time as people predict, like yourself, football will become irrelevant in 20 yrs. The discussion of TO getting an NFL team should end there.

Toronto is the third biggest city proper in the US and Canada. It's not the third biggest metro, because metro populations in the US are ridiculous. And no, the Golden Horseshoe isn't Toronto's metro.

Originally Posted by Berklon

Plus the Raptors success has opened the eyes of many in the NFL. The NFL has a problem with fan diversity... it's still largely a white fanbase (83% at last count). During the Raptors run people saw the massive diversity of its fanbase - and Toronto's been called the most multicultural city in the world - which is very attractive to leagues who need to expand their base.

Toronto's football fanbase is predominantly white, so this seems like a stretch. The NFL could achieve the same goals without having to expand at all, since it isn't like New York or Los Angeles lack diversity. Definitely less expensive to focus on the highly multicultural cities they already have, rather than adding another team in the hopes it will for some reason become popular with that city's non-white population.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by EpicPonyTime

Toronto is the third biggest city proper in the US and Canada. It's not the third biggest metro, because metro populations in the US are ridiculous. And no, the Golden Horseshoe isn't Toronto's metro.

Toronto's football fanbase is predominantly white, so this seems like a stretch. The NFL could achieve the same goals without having to expand at all, since it isn't like New York or Los Angeles lack diversity. Definitely less expensive to focus on the highly multicultural cities they already have, rather than adding another team in the hopes it will for some reason become popular with that city's non-white population.

Is it just that Hispanics who’ve recently arrived from Central America and Mexico (and probably a lot of Asian immigrants as well) don’t know/care much about the NFL? I wouldn’t have thought that black Americans were any less interested than whites. I don’t see how expanding to Toronto would affect that type of “diversity problem”.

[le calmar]

Originally Posted by Berklon

Plus the Raptors success has opened the eyes of many in the NFL.

I am not sure how you came up with this though.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by EpicPonyTime

Toronto is the third biggest city proper in the US and Canada. It's not the third biggest metro, because metro populations in the US are ridiculous. And no, the Golden Horseshoe isn't Toronto's metro.

Sorry, I stand corrected. The ya re the 3rd largest city proper, and 7th largest metro.

[esquire]

Halifax's CFL team vs. Toronto's NFL team is the ultimate turtle derby.

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by esquire

Halifax's CFL team vs. Toronto's NFL team is the ultimate turtle derby.

Let's debate the return of the NBA to Vancouver next.

[craneSpotter]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Hockey participation in Canada on the other hand is falling at an alarming rate as there are 100,000 less kids playing in Canada than just 5 years ago from 721,000 to 621,000 a 14% drop in participation.Yet very few talk about that.

Not sure where Statista got its figures from, but according to Hockey Canada those numbers are inaccurate.

Minor hockey in Canada saw its highest number of registrations last year (2018-19) - since at least 2007-08. There were ~644,000 Canadian kids officially registered in minor hockey programs last year - compared to 559,000 in 07-08. I believe over that time there was a slight drop in male registration and increase in female registrations.

According to USA Hockey - they saw their highest ever level of registered players last year with ~568,000.

I agree Hockey can become expensive - especially at tier 1 or academy levels (which only ~15% play at) - but its a bit overblown when it comes to putting a kid in 'house' or lower tier hockey - which is still competitive and has opportunities for development. Many activities such as Dance and Karate can cost more per year - I shit you not. I had one boy in hockey (Tier 3 Pee Wee) and one in Karate last year. End of the year totals: Hockey = $1600 & Karate = $2500. The monthly Dojo fees can be quite high. Now, I could have bought used skates for my hockey kid instead of new - and saved $250 form the hockey total.

Just looking back in time - when I was a kid going to elementary and Jr. high in the 80s, few kids in my classes actually played organized hockey - most played football, baseball and soccer. As far as diversity goes - anecdotally one thing I've noticed during tournaments the past few years - is that some minor teams from the BC Lower Mainland now have half their roster made up of players of Asian decent This is great!


https://cdn.agilitycms.com/hockey-canada...018-19-hockey-canada-annual-report-e.pdf

https://www.usahockey.com/membershipstats

Note that USA hockey includes registered adult players too, Hockey Canada stats include just registered minor players.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by esquire

Halifax's CFL team vs. Toronto's NFL team is the ultimate turtle derby.

Eh, what's there to talk about otherwise?

The Expos coming back to Montreal?
The Nordiques coming back to Quebec City?

I don't see much of a business case for any of the big-4 major sports leagues expanding in Canada in the near future. If an Eastern US NHL team comes perilously close to folding, Quebec City may fall ass-backwards into an NHL team (like Winnipeg did with the Atlanta Thrashers), but otherwise the deck is stacked too much against it.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by wave46

Eh, what's there to talk about otherwise?

The Expos coming back to Montreal?
The Nordiques coming back to Quebec City?

I don't see much of a business case for any of the big-4 major sports leagues expanding in Canada in the near future. If an Eastern US NHL team comes perilously close to folding, Quebec City may fall ass-backwards into an NHL team (like Winnipeg did with the Atlanta Thrashers), but otherwise the deck is stacked too much against it.

If you had to put money on one of these scenarios to be true as of January 1, 2025, which one would it be?

1. Quebec gets a NHL team
2. Montreal gets a MLB team
3. Halifax gets a CFL team
4. Vancouver gets a NBA team
5. Toronto gets a NFL team

I wouldn't say any of those are likely scenarios, but at the same time I wouldn't say that any of them are totally impossible either. If the dollar were to somehow creep up closer to par, it's possible we could see a couple of those scenarios play out.

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by le calmar

I am not sure how you came up with this though.

This is inner-circle talk (of which I'm not apart of - but it's about who you know). To be fair, it's not just the NFL (and certainly not ALL of the NFL - just a few of the key "players")... it's the business world in general. Toronto has been "advertising" their diversity for a while in all facets on Bay St. to attract more investment. It's been an area of concentration for investment bankers for over the last decade. The pleasant surprise is that overnight something as trivial as the Raptors playoff run has pushed Toronto's multicultural diversity to the forefront and people are taking notice more now.

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by esquire

If you had to put money on one of these scenarios to be true as of January 1, 2025, which one would it be?

1. Quebec gets a NHL team
2. Montreal gets a MLB team
3. Halifax gets a CFL team
4. Vancouver gets a NBA team
5. Toronto gets a NFL team

I wouldn't say any of those are likely scenarios, but at the same time I wouldn't say that any of them are totally impossible either. If the dollar were to somehow creep up closer to par, it's possible we could see a couple of those scenarios play out.

I think the CFL is the only one that is feasible in that timeframe. I'd say MLB to Montreal is the most likely overall, but I don't think it'll happen by 2025. The other ones are complete pipedreams unfortunately.

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by EpicPonyTime

Toronto's football fanbase is predominantly white, so this seems like a stretch. The NFL could achieve the same goals without having to expand at all, since it isn't like New York or Los Angeles lack diversity. Definitely less expensive to focus on the highly multicultural cities they already have, rather than adding another team in the hopes it will for some reason become popular with that city's non-white population.

It's not about attracting the current white football fanbase, it's about targeting a city in which is represented by MANY different cultures in high numbers. Some current NFL cities are very diverse as well, but a good chunk are just white AF. Which is why 80%+ of the fanbase is white. Targeting a multicultural city like Toronto kills many birds with one stone. And this growing diverse fanbase isn't just restricted to the city. It's a domino effect.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by esquire

If you had to put money on one of these scenarios to be true as of January 1, 2025, which one would it be?

1. Quebec gets a NHL team
2. Montreal gets a MLB team
3. Halifax gets a CFL team
4. Vancouver gets a NBA team
5. Toronto gets a NFL team

I wouldn't say any of those are likely scenarios, but at the same time I wouldn't say that any of them are totally impossible either. If the dollar were to somehow creep up closer to par, it's possible we could see a couple of those scenarios play out.

1 and 3, probably.

Why?

1. If the NHL needs a quick transfer for a failing NHL team (*looks at Carolina*), Quebec City looks to be the best choice. A capable arena, a corporate sponsor with deep pockets and a built-in audience that will probably fill the place for a few years for the novelty factor alone, even if the team is terrible.

3. The CFL has nowhere else to go and the cost of getting in isn't prohibitive. So, yeah, if someone with moderately deep pockets wanted to fund it, I could see the CFL going to Halifax provided the city came up with some money for a modest stadium.

-----

Against:

2. Montreal would need a new baseball stadium, as Olympic Stadium wouldn't cut the mustard. That's a $500+ million cost there. Given that the MLB is struggling in smaller US markets as the payroll gap between competitive teams and the rest of them is a huge gulf, I'm not sure how long someone would subsidize losses in Montreal or alternately, how long interest would last for a mediocre, but cheap payroll team would last.

4. The failure of the Grizzlies still rings large, but this actually might be possible. I don't know if the NBA wants to take that gamble though - they seem to do OK in secondary US markets, so they have some choices before Vancouver comes up again.

5. The billionaire owner who is going to build the billion-dollar stadium leaves the NFL in Toronto at the bottom of my potential list. The NFL won't allow corporate owners (except grandfathered ones) and the Province of Ontario won't give a sweetheart deal for a new football-only stadium like they did with Skydome. Given the iffy local support and it's dead in the water.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Berklon

It's not about attracting the current white football fanbase, it's about targeting a city in which is represented by MANY different cultures in high numbers. Some current NFL cities are very diverse as well, but a good chunk are just white AF. Which is why 80%+ of the fanbase is white. Targeting a multicultural city like Toronto kills many birds with one stone. And this growing diverse fanbase isn't just restricted to the city. It's a domino effect.

I'm sorry, but the idea that the NFL is intrigued by the idea of a team in Toronto specifically to attract non-white fans seems utterly laughable.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by wave46

1 and 3, probably.

Why?

1. If the NHL needs a quick transfer for a failing NHL team (*looks at Carolina*), Quebec City looks to be the best choice. A capable arena, a corporate sponsor with deep pockets and a built-in audience that will probably fill the place for a few years for the novelty factor alone, even if the team is terrible.

3. The CFL has nowhere else to go and the cost of getting in isn't prohibitive. So, yeah, if someone with moderately deep pockets wanted to fund it, I could see the CFL going to Halifax provided the city came up with some money for a modest stadium.

-----

Against:

2. Montreal would need a new baseball stadium, as Olympic Stadium wouldn't cut the mustard. That's a $500+ million cost there. Given that the MLB is struggling in smaller US markets as the payroll gap between competitive teams and the rest of them is a huge gulf, I'm not sure how long someone would subsidize losses in Montreal or alternately, how long interest would last for a mediocre, but cheap payroll team would last.

4. The failure of the Grizzlies still rings large, but this actually might be possible. I don't know if the NBA wants to take that gamble though - they seem to do OK in secondary US markets, so they have some choices before Vancouver comes up again.

5. The billionaire owner who is going to build the billion-dollar stadium leaves the NFL in Toronto at the bottom of my potential list. The NFL won't allow corporate owners (except grandfathered ones) and the Province of Ontario won't give a sweetheart deal for a new football-only stadium like they did with Skydome. Given the iffy local support and it's dead in the water.

Given that the facilities exist for 1 and 4, you would have to think that alone gives them a leg up on the others. Although as you point out, building a CFL stadium to realize 3 would not come at that exorbitant a price.