YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

@thenoflyzone - It’s good YUL is growing. For a city with a metro population almost double that of Vancouver, I’ve always thought it weird that YVR serves 66% more passengers per year — or 10 million more passengers. That pony clearly has a lot of legs...

1. Comparing city population to airport passenger numbers.....yeah... I haven't heard that one before.

2. Your math is way off....

YTD October, YVR had 29% more passengers. And that difference is all domestic passengers btw...

Originally Posted by Marshal

You are so bang on! I knew it. I've been living here for a decades now and I have always been suspicious.

Nothing happening, everyone just hangin on. Crappy airport, Chinese control, all my neighbours not working because there is no economy. They just sit and wait to skim off a bit of — money, or launder some, or just get paid straight from Shanghai. So sad. I hate it here. Nothing to do, no growth, rainy, mouldy . . . just 2,800,000 people living the nightmare. And when you look into it you see why. 200+ tower cranes building nothing. Construction at a standstill. Movie business —. 3 or 4 oil refineries - they are just stage sets. Ship building? Zippo! Tourism - weak money. Olympics? Never happened. Massive goods transhipment/shipment network is a fake facade. Retail, banking, law, giant universities . . . all —. Our office buildings are empty: no head offices. Giant trade port with the US? Not there. Air cargo, like passengers, poorly performing. Major port expansions on a huge port: a fraud. Medical research = nothing. TRIUMPH - so what! "Tech sector is booming," that's a lie. And for us here on Skyscraperpage.com, why do they keep throwing up hundreds of highrises destined to be empty except for maybe a bit of laundered cash in the kitchens. There are no people because there is no economy. It's just such a stupid place.

We got nothin! Just still chopin those trees and diggen in the dirt. What a failure. Why are we all here? Why? The trees? Not me. The ocean? Not me. The views? No way.

I just don't know what to think. We have too many eggs in too many baskets! I'm moving to Sherbrooke.


(post note: trofirhen, Vancouver didn't 'put' most of its eggs in one basket, Vancouver laid what eggs it could.)

And yet, AC chose to add YYC-BOS with a mainline A319, and nothing new out of YVR...hmm

How come no YVR-IAD, or YVR-MIA......Maybe you should write an e-mail to AC and carbon copy exactly what you just wrote.....lol.... Dont forget the trees and the oceans bit. That's the icing on the cake, so to speak !

P.S at least in Sherbrooke, you can buy a home for a decent price without going broke.

Originally Posted by teriyaki

I just learnt for the first time today how to add someone to the ignore list, yeesh.

You're not the first, and you're probably not going to be the last.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by teriyaki

I just learnt for the first time today how to add someone to the ignore list, yeesh.

A very handy tool isn’t it. I only have three on mine but it makes a huge difference sometimes such as this page. Just stay logged in.

[zahav]

I don't mind when people try and pump up Montreal because it has 40 years of sub-par performance to catch up on (negative migration, sub par employment growth, long term airport growth). Meanwhile Vancouver has gone from nothing to world renowned in the time Montreal has gone from the top of the country to a distant 2nd and sometimes 3rd. It has only been a couple years they've had better performance but it's given some people a very entitled attitude to look down on anyone else. Never more so than the foreign buyer question. There have been countless stories of Chinese buyers lining up for new projects in Montreal just because Vancouver and Toronto put foreign buyer limits in, and Montreal wanted the scraps from people who would've preferred Van or TO if they had a choice. But the funniest part is the denial from Montreal boosters who don't see any issue with it happening there, but then call Vancouver a one trick pony, even when it doesn't happen here any more.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Now, as for Vancouver's economy, it's a 1 trick pony: Real estate related to Chinese foreign capital. Economic and population growth is all related to foreign capital from China. Remove that, and Vancouver doesn't have much going for it.

Recent issues between Canada/China, plus the fact that Chinese carriers are maxed out in Canada, and the fact that AC/WS aren't interested or capable of adding more flights to China, all explain why YVR has a lack of new destinations or routes, and why passenger number increases are now lingering behind other Canadian hubs like YUL or YYC.

Pretty sure I've said this before. Like it or not, this is what is happening.

The following article is a good read, and Vancouver's economy can be summed up in a few short lines found in the article:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-20/vancouver-is-drowning-in-chinese-money

I find you quite knowledgeable (though of course quite biased) about air travel and the industry, but your views on economics clearly leave quite a lot to be desired.

While real estate is of course a large part of Vancouver's economy, as it is with most rapidly growing cities, it is not a one trick pony and is currently undergoing an incredible economic run.

In the last 2 years Vancouver has created over 200,000 jobs. That is unheard of for a city if its size. Montreal, a city of nearly 50% greater population has created about half that in the same time period.

Over the last 4.5 years (2019 Q3/Q4 are not out yet) metro Vancouver has absorbed 6.7 million square feet of office space. Just to put it in relative terms that's over 13 Tour Deloittes in Montreal. That also doesn't count any of the forward looking absorption like the new Apple, Microsoft or Amazon offices set to open over the next 24 months that will add over 2 million more square feet of absorption.

So no, Vancouver is not a one trick pony. It may see that way if you aren't paying attention and only read the headlines, but BC has led Canada in GDP growth rates for 3 years now and looks to continue strong economic growth with tech, LNG infrastructure and finance continuing to lead the way.

So please keep continuing to comment on air related issues, as you know what you're talking about, but don't bother with economic commentary since you don't seem particularly up to speed on what's going on in Vancouver.

[Marshal]

Don't make serious arguments to defend Vancouver to a brick. Isn't that how trolling behaviour works?

I took my tack because I thought it would be useful to see Vancouver's economy for what it is: varied and complex: the opposite of a single trick. People think that cities dominated by just a few industries are the only cities with strong real economies. Our's is strong without that level of concentration, and unlike Vancouver of old (last century) we have outgrown boom and bust cycles that are true indicators of undiversified economies. This is the goal for cities like Calgary, which is doing a pretty good job of going in the right direction.

Now, like I said: 2,800,000 people out here are just doing nothing. 200,000 jobs are all at the drive thru. We Vancouverites have been warned, we're a disaster.

And to get back on topic:
Stats for 2050:
YVR: stil 25,000,000; cargo, 0; distinations 100 all Chinese
YUL: where it should be, 48,000,000; cargo, 400,000 tons (where YVR is now), destinations 300, including everything YVR has now + 5 in Turkey.

(use that ignore list, keep laughing at ignorance, and help out by moving somewhere with meaningful employment.)

(Oh, I almost forgot: on a visual level: all those photos by McMinsen, Klazu . . . , what a crappy looking place with nothing going on. They should stop posting them. You don't see that many pictures of Cleveland regularly posted, do you?)

[Marshal]

I promise to shut up soon.

What is Montreal's economy famous for? Nothing in particular, right? That's because it too is quite diverse, and similar in that way to Vancouver. It is also a strength.

I'm from Montreal (long time ago) and I love Montreal. I have no derogation for anything about Montreal. It pains me everytime I type 'Montreal' without the accent. Ya see -nofly-, I love Canada, which means Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg . . . even Ottawa a bit. I always hope YUL does well, and if it becomes bigger than YVR, that's fine so long as YVR is also doing well. Statistics do mean things of substance, but that they engender competitions; well that's 'stupid on us.'

Vancouver —, sure; but Montreal shines on. But, Vancouver might be OK someday. Ha!

[Denscity]

It is quite telling that the YUL thread (I didn't even know there was one) and the entire Toronto section is an absolute ghost town. Seems like some people have to talk about themselves in front of the whole country or a rival thread like this one to make themselves feel better.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I sure hope that’s not the case. I booked yvr-sjo on transat in April just last week.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Looks like you can’t book SJO or LIR on TS from anywhere in Canada according to the TS website. Glitch perhaps??

Seems like a glitch indeed. Reservation reopened for the next 2 week and the last return flight from SJO only. Similar case applies for the YYZ and YUL flights.

===========================

In other news, NKG airport reports that the LF for YVR-NKG flight is about 85% on average from July to October. This is much better than the 40-60% load reported a couple of years ago (Source)

Trying to ignore everything else that's going on in this thread...

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by Marshal

I promise to shut up soon.

I'm from Montreal (long time ago) and I love Montreal. I have no derogation for anything about Montreal. It pains me everytime I type 'Montreal' without the accent.

It's pretty easy to type Montréal with an accent. At least on a Mac. You either hold down e and wait a second, or you hold option-e, e.

I prefer to type Montréal, Québec with the accents intact as well.

[LeftCoaster]

No need to dump on Montreal guys, it's a wonderful city. I just needed to correct a very misguided opinion held by noflyzone, there's no need to stoop down to his level and take shots at Montreal.

Good news on the transat flight, it was indeed a glitch. I was pretty worried I would need to rebook there for a bit. one of the main reasons I'm going to Costa Rica is because there's finally a direct! Would have defeated the point if there wasn't.

Now I just need a direct to Lima for next fall's vacation...

[SpongeG]

Speaking of Lima, I saw banners for Lima all over YVR and looked up flights, there is one option that you can book with Japan Airlines, it goes via Mexico City, is it a code share and you would fly on Aeromexico? Since it was one of the other options.

[SpongeG]

747's are my favourite plane

• Video Link

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

but your views on economics clearly leave quite a lot to be desired.

Really now.

Let's keep reading what you wrote...

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

..but BC has led Canada in GDP growth rates for 3 years now and looks to continue strong economic growth with tech, LNG infrastructure and finance continuing to lead the way.

So please keep continuing to comment on air related issues, as you know what you're talking about, but don't bother with economic commentary since you don't seem particularly up to speed on what's going on in Vancouver.

Really?

So I guess StatsCan and their 2018 real GDP figures are false then.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190501/dq190501a-eng.htm

2018 Quebec real GDP +2.5%
2018 BC real GDP +2.4%

Real GDP accounts for inflation/deflation. It illustrates a more accurate picture of which province is growing organically, and which ones are growing due to inflation caused by soaring real estate prices over the years, as an example....

So yeah, BC is leading the country alright, if by leading you mean 3rd place, behind P.E.I and Quebec. BC has been doing good these last years, yes, but its comparable to other provinces, and nothing out of the ordinary. Real GDP figures point that out.

Also, so far this year, Quebec real GDP is outpacing the rest of the country 2 to 1. (3% vs 1.5%)

https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-gdp-qc.pdf

So i'll stick to my economic commentary, if it's alright with you.

Bottom line, you couldn't understand why with Vancouver's seemingly good economic climate, YVR was lagging behind other Canadian airports with growth this year (new destinations as well as pax increase). I answered. And now all of you are after me like what I'm saying is false. It Isn't.

Your economy is heavily dependent on real estate and foreign money from China. Things are now bad in HKG, our relation with China is in the gutters, bilateral is maxed out and now you're wondering why YVR is stagnant? Doesn't take a genius to figure it out.

Originally Posted by zahav

I don't mind when people try and pump up Montreal because it has 40 years of sub-par performance to catch up on (negative migration, sub par employment growth, long term airport growth). Meanwhile Vancouver has gone from nothing to world renowned in the time Montreal has gone from the top of the country to a distant 2nd and sometimes 3rd. It has only been a couple years they've had better performance but it's given some people a very entitled attitude to look down on anyone else. Never more so than the foreign buyer question. There have been countless stories of Chinese buyers lining up for new projects in Montreal just because Vancouver and Toronto put foreign buyer limits in, and Montreal wanted the scraps from people who would've preferred Van or TO if they had a choice. But the funniest part is the denial from Montreal boosters who don't see any issue with it happening there, but then call Vancouver a one trick pony, even when it doesn't happen here any more.

Never denied it. I see it first hand. Although the overall impact of this on Quebec is far less than what you are seeing in BC.

And I'm not boosting Montreal. nname said YUL and YYZ were gaining as much as losing destinations. That wasn't accurate in the case of YUL and I simply pointed it out. But I guess pointing out facts is called boosting now.....

Originally Posted by Marshal

Don't make serious arguments to defend Vancouver to a brick.

Better that than talking about mountains and oceans.......

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

And I'm not boosting Montreal. nname said YUL and YYZ were gaining as much as losing destinations. That wasn't accurate in the case of YUL and I simply pointed it out. But I guess pointing out facts is called boosting now.....

Look again, that's not what I said.

I said YUL, YYC, YYZ all have gain and loss in service, but I never said the amount of service lost = service gained.

The only airport I quantified when comparing service is YYC, which I stated it lost much more from AC compared to the amount gained.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

Look again, that's not what I said.

I said YUL, YYC, YYZ all have gain and loss in service, but I never said the amount of service lost = service gained.

The only airport I quantified when comparing service is YYC, which I stated it lost much more from AC compared to the amount gained.

You said YUL gained BOG but lost LIM. Simply pointed out that YUL gained far more than BOG this year (and next). So that LIM loss is pretty insignificant, and is not comparable to the lack of new destinations at YVR.

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

You said YUL gained BOG but lost LIM. Simply pointed out that YUL gained far more than BOG this year (and next). So that LIM loss is pretty insignificant, and is not comparable to the lack of new destinations at YVR.

And I was just giving examples for AC moving their resource around. I also did not list out all the destinations or services that YYZ, YYC, YEG, YQB, YHZ, YOW gained or lost. This is YVR thread, and I was trying to at least keep my post relevant rather than having 95% of my post talking about other airports.

Lack of new destinations? YVR had 2 new and 1 reinstated this winter season. None are from AC though.

[SpongeG]

.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Really now.

So I guess StatsCan and their 2018 real GDP figures are false then.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190501/dq190501a-eng.htm

I use Royal Bank of Canada , who have BC's Real GDP at 3.7%, 3.5%, 3.5%, 3.8% through 2017. They haven't finalized 2018 yet but you are right they show Quebec as being 0.1% higher than BC. Whoopde do. BC was 10 times higher than that over Quebec in 2017.

Besides, I didn't really want to make this a Montreal thing or a vs thing, but here we go...

I know you think we should be impressed that for once in the past 20 years Quebec's is growing, but for somewhere that hasn't been a complete economic basket case for the last generation or two we aren't. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy things are looking better there, maybe it means we wont have to send billions of dollars out east every damn year, but 2.5% GDP growth is hardly impressive, but I'm glad that makes you happy. Also, it seems to have jumped the second Vancouver and Toronto put capital flow restrictions on their real estate, so looks like Montreal is just being boosted by money that no longer flows into Vancouver. Funny how that happens.

Bottom line is Vancouver's economy is growing leaps and bounds faster than Montreal's. Jesus, Montreal just posted a net loss of 51,000 jobs over the past 12 months. That's unreal.

But hey Vancouver's economy is all Chinese residential investment you say?

Let's take a look at office space, a great metric of a growing economy, shall we? After all no Chinese real estate investors are taking hundred thousand square foot office blocks.

Greater Montreal is building 3.4 million square feet of office space right now, Greater Vancouver is building 7.5 million square feet. It's not even close, and Montreal is the bigger City!

Hell Vancouver absorbed 2.3 million square feet in one year last year, that's almost Montreal's entire office development pipeline in one year. This year will be slower since there is literally no more space to absorb, the downtown vacancy rate is at 1.4%. Just as a comparison, Montreal's is at 10.3%.

But sure, you keep telling yourself Vancouver is a one trick pony, only growing because of Chinese real estate investment. An economically troubled region too tied to Asian investment, continue to be ignorant if you wish. I only ask you, who is taking all this office space? I know the answer, but you sure don't.

[Johnny Aussie]

Yeah you tell him!
Since I’ve ignored him and one other in here I only see what they say when someone quotes them. No value added commentary just rubbish.

Great to be back in YVR. Another pleasant arrival experience and flights on EVA Air.

[Denscity]

Welcome back Johnny!