Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[theman23]

Originally Posted by misher

I actually read the presentations by staff to city council that discuss this stuff.

Given that you think only Chinese have money I can already tell your a racist asshole. West Vancouver and Vancouver West where the money is is 70%+ white and yet you complain they aren’t rich enough? Damn racists just ruin this city. Maybe you should move to the interior if you hate Asians so much.

It doesn’t matter to me if they’re Chinese or Albertan . All I care about is your ridiculous claims that the real estate market in this city is due to economic prosperity of locals. You claimed in another thread that the median income in this city exceeds six figures, or that 250K a year was a common salary for people in Vancouver, even though your own figures showed that the median household income in the city of Vancouver was below 60K. You’re clearly oblivious to the economic reality of this city, and apparently have a hard time reading the graphs you love so much too.

The real estate market in this city is not because this is a city of highly paid executives working for successful companies that don’t exist. The low income is not a consequence of retirees or students that don’t exist and wouldn’t affect the median income anyway.

[Pinus]

Originally Posted by whatnext

One doesn't even have to look as far afield as Africa, apparently some of the contempt shown by Chinese students at Eric Hamber towards their Vietnamese classmates is legendary.

But according to our local Xi puppet who follows Xi logic, any racism displayed by ethnic Chinese is all Whitey's fault. Hence all caucasians are to blame for any negative social behaviour exhibited by ethnic Chinese. Otherwise, Chinese people would have been perfect little angels who would love every single human being on this planet regardless of race, ethnicity, skin colour, sexual orientation, religious believe, etc.

In other words, the Chinese people were faultless until Whitey screwed them up.

[casper]

Originally Posted by theman23

It doesn’t matter to me if they’re Chinese or Albertan . All I care about is your ridiculous claims that the real estate market in this city is due to economic prosperity of locals. You claimed in another thread that the median income in this city exceeds six figures, or that 250K a year was a common salary for people in Vancouver, even though your own figures showed that the median household income in the city of Vancouver was below 60K. You’re clearly oblivious to the economic reality of this city, and apparently have a hard time reading the graphs you love so much too.

The real estate market in this city is not because this is a city of highly paid executives working for successful companies that don’t exist. The low income is not a consequence of retirees or students that don’t exist and wouldn’t affect the median income anyway.

We have Amazon wanting to expand to 12,000 in the downtown core. Most of that software engineers and related head office positions. It is now looking like we are going to have the highest concentration of Amazon corporate types outside of Seattle. Software developers typically make $60-100k. Our friends from Amazon are proposing salaries in the $80-130k range.

A few blocks away you have Microsoft and a host of others. That should provide a good indication of who is going to be able to afford downtown condos in the future.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by casper

We have Amazon wanting to expand to 12,000 in the downtown core. Most of that software engineers and related head office positions. It is now looking like we are going to have the highest concentration of Amazon corporate types outside of Seattle. Software developers typically make $60-100k. Our friends from Amazon are proposing salaries in the $80-130k range.

A few blocks away you have Microsoft and a host of others. That should provide a good indication of who is going to be able to afford downtown condos in the future.

Ill believe it when they put their money where their mouth is. It’s no secret that tech companies like Canada because they can get away with paying Canadians a fraction of what they pay their American employees. Even if they get paid the numbers you quote, no one earning a piddling 100k a year is going to be able to afford to live in downtown Vancouver at current prices.

Regardless,we’re talking about the present, not a future hypothetical. The median household income as it stands is 60k, not 100k. Tech employees in this city (including those that work for Microsoft and Amazon) make about 20 grand a year less than their colleagues in even Oklahoma City, and we sure as hell don’t have Oklahoma City real estate prices. Misher keeps bringing up San Fran and Seattle, but keeps ignoring that incomes in those cities are nearly double Vancouver.

[misher]

Originally Posted by theman23

Ill believe it when they put their money where their mouth is. It’s no secret that tech companies like Canada because they can get away with paying Canadians a fraction of what they pay their American employees. Even if they get paid the numbers you quote, no one earning a piddling 100k a year is going to be able to afford to live in downtown Vancouver at current prices.

Regardless,we’re talking about the present, not a future hypothetical. The median household income as it stands is 60k, not 100k. Tech employees in this city (including those that work for Microsoft and Amazon) make about 20 grand a year less than their colleagues in even Oklahoma City, and we sure as hell don’t have Oklahoma City real estate prices. Misher keeps bringing up San Fran and Seattle, but keeps ignoring that incomes in those cities are nearly double Vancouver.

Because I would say that in those cities the retirees and students tend to live in the suburbs while we're the opposite, our retirees and students live in the city while our workers live in the suburbs. Vancouver also has a massive population in the East side that drags down the average. If you look at incomes for downtown and the West Side they are more than triple the East Side. Should we be using the income made from outside an area to justify what the housing in an area should cost? The West Side should look at the incomes of those residing in the West Side. We have a zone of low income in Richmond, East Van, and Surrey surrounded by very high incomes in West Van, North Van, Delta, Van West, Langley, and Maple Ridge. You cannot just manipulate data and say our incomes are too low to afford our housing. Some peoples incomes are low yes, but some peoples are high. If you look at the income maps of Vancouver you have high income earners in the expensive parts of the city. Those are the people that obviously can afford housing. If our housing was owned by a bunch of foreigners who don't pay taxes, you wouldn't have a bunch of high income earners in those expensive areas!



Its been agreed by many that Canada's housing prices have been largely driven by low interest rates and debt. Canadian debt is massive! If Canadians are taking on 2x more debt than its obvious that prices they can afford will be greater!

Canadian households are suffocating under a mountain of debt. It's a tiresome story, one that gets repeated every few months, yet shows no signs of disappearing anytime soon. The statistics are concerning, Canadians owe $1.75 for every dollar of disposable income, while the debt servicing ratio reached a record high 14.96% in Q3 2019, despite interest rates near rock bottom lows.

The Bank of Canada Governor, Stephen Poloz, who is responsible for setting interest rate policy, or in other words, the price of money, faced the music from critics this past week. Following a press conference in which Governor Poloz acknowledged “The high household-debt load is the most important risk facing the financial system" he was abruptly challenged by BNN Bloomberg's reporter Andrew Bell.

“But aren’t you the man who is to blame for that?” Bell asked. “You're the candyman. You kept those interest rates so low all those years. You’re the main author of that bubble, aren’t you?”

A rather stunned Poloz, who's actions are rarely questioned by the media, paused for several seconds before acknowledging, “A lot of things may have contributed to it, and certainly I would say keeping interest rates low, as many countries have had to do for over 10 years now.”

Adding, “Even though the economy is at full employment, more or less, and inflation is on target, we’re there, but at really low interest rates from a historical standpoint. So those low interest rates are still stimulating against some contrary force. The fact inflation is on target suggests that the Bank of Canada has done its job."
“Now if there are side effects – one of them you mentioned – well, those are secondary effects. They’re not our prime mission. Our prime mission is to stabilize the economy and keep inflation on target. And we succeeded with that.”


Safe to say Mr.Bell won't be receiving a Christmas card from Poloz this holiday season..

While the Bank of Canada is at least partly responsible for leaving Canadians with a mountain of debt, the reality is Canada largely imports monetary policy from our neighbours to the south, so perhaps we are being too hard on Poloz. Consider this, despite the stock market at all time highs, housing prices at all time highs, the longest economic expansion in history (125 months), jobs growth the longest in history (110 months), the US federal reserve has cut interest rates three times this year and has grown its balance sheet by $335B over the past three months.

We live in a world of unlimited free candy, and yet we wonder why we're sick.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by misher

Because I would say that in those cities the retirees and students tend to live in the suburbs while we're the opposite, our retirees and students live in the city while our workers live in the suburbs. Vancouver also has a massive population in the East side that drags down the average. If you look at incomes for downtown and the West Side they are more than triple the East Side. Should we be using the income made from outside an area to justify what the housing in an area should cost? The West Side should look at the incomes of those residing in the West Side. We have a zone of low income in Richmond, East Van, and Surrey surrounded by very high incomes in West Van, North Van, Delta, Van West, Langley, and Maple Ridge. You cannot just manipulate data and say our incomes are too low to afford our housing. Some peoples incomes are low yes, but some peoples are high. If you look at the income maps of Vancouver you have high income earners in the expensive parts of the city. Those are the people that obviously can afford housing. If our housing was owned by a bunch of foreigners who don't pay taxes, you wouldn't have a bunch of high income earners in those expensive areas!



Its been agreed by many that Canada's housing prices have been largely driven by low interest rates and debt. Canadian debt is massive! If Canadians are taking on 2x more debt than its obvious that prices they can afford will be greater!

1) Each and every single one of those "poor" areas, including Richmond, still have housing prices in the millions, well out of reach for the median income. We all know this, so stop ignoring it.
2) 15.5% of people in the city of Vancouver are above the age of 65, compared to 15.7 in the Vancouver CMA, and 16.9% in Canada as a whole. Vancouver does not have a disproportionate amount of retirees. This is completely false. Stop repeating it.
3) Even if the above were true, outliers would not skew the median income the way you claim. Medians don't work that way. The idea that most people in this city are high paid executives clearing 6 figures is simply fantasy (not that a six figure salary would be sufficient to afford a home in this city anyways).
4) Yes, excessive borrowing is a large factor in our housing prices being what they are. I'm not arguing this. What I'm simply saying is that incomes in this city are no where near enough to support our housing prices. This is supported by mountains of evidence and everyone except you agrees on this. For cripes sakes, even the venerated tech workers in this city make half of what they do in the USA and are stuck living in subleased shared apartments.

[misher]

Re posting this from CANZAK as it is relevant. I am disputing the claims that foreigners are responsible for our prices because the data I see shows that any foreigner can become a PR pretty easily. So rather than say foreigners the only acceptable group you can finger is immigrants.

Originally Posted by Acajack

That is one isolated very recent example.

Historically Canadian immigration policy has not generally been beneficial to Quebec/francophones.

Doing the math they have made $184 million annually since 1986 and that doesn't account for inflation from this alone. Likely more like $300 million annually in today's dollars.

With a population of around 8 million this means each person receives $37.50 a year from immigration. If you directed that money to the homeless only (about 1%) then that's $3,750 for every homeless person which is a very significant subsidy.

I think they've benefited a lot already from it don't you think? Honestly it seems like Quebec has benefited the most from immigration while the other provinces, as usual, have been forced to take on the burden. Honestly Quebec has always been the province best at taking the benefits and making the problems someone else's. Maybe Quebec should be handing over all the money it made off immigrants to the cities forced to house them since they obviously don't end up in Quebec. Less than 10% of the people you sold our citizenship to end up being your burden while 90%+ of the burden becomes ours. If I sound angry its because I am, Quebec constantly abuses Canada by making a quick profit and then sticking us with the burden. Every year you take take take and give us nothing but grief back.

In the mid-1990s, investor immigration to Canada, which came both through Quebec and the cancelled federal Immigrant Investor Program (IIP), was dominated by applicants from Hong Kong and Taiwan.

From 2007 to 2011, the country of last residence for 86.8 per cent of principal applicants to the IIP was in Asia, Australia or the Pacific, according to a federal report.

UBC geographer Daniel Hiebert, who has focused on international migration, said investor immigration is likely now dominated by applicants from Mainland China.

The federal report also showed that investor immigrants are heavily invested in real estate.

This chart shows where immigrant investors who came to Canada via Quebec were located as of 2016:

Seriously one of the biggest reasons I criticize whatnext and others is that they are idiots who focuses on foreigners buying real estate. Foreigners don't buy our real estate, immigrants do. Any foreigner with money can go buy citizenship from Quebec and become an immigrant. If you believe demand from outside Canada has ruined our housing market then the finger can be pointed straight at Quebec for letting that demand in and taking their commission off it.

[whatnext]

Nothing to see here, right Misher? Move along everyone...

Chinese former duck farmer buys big in Vancouver: first a US$39m home, then a US$3.9m car, now a downtown hotel
Tycoon Chen Mailin, once a member of China’s top political advisory body, is revealed in a lawsuit as the new owner of the 213-room Metropolitan Hotel Vancouver
Chen previously paid the highest price ever for a home in the Canadian city, before his credit card was used to buy a customised Bugatti Chiron supercar
Ian Young
Published: 2:42am, 17 Dec, 2019

Chen Mailin, a Chinese former duck farmer turned tycoon, has made a habit of big purchases in Vancouver.
Five years ago he bought a 17,000 sq ft Italianate mansion in Point Grey, one of the city's most expensive neighbourhoods, for what is thought to have been the highest price ever paid for a home in the city (or Canada, for that matter): C$51.8 million (US$39 million).
Then, this April, his Union Pay credit card was used by his son to pay C$5.1 million (US$3.9 million) for what is surely one of the city’s most expensive cars – a customised Bugatti Chiron.
Now, a lawsuit has revealed that Chen – a former member of the Chinese government’s top advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – is the new owner of the 213-room Metropolitan Hotel Vancouver in the city’s downtown core...

....But his ownership of the hotel is confirmed in court documents related to a June 12 lawsuit by an Ontario investment firm, Global Edge Investments.
The registered business name of the new owner is “Metropolitan Hotel”, but the company is Jinling Hotel Ltd, whose sole director is Chen.
Global Edge, which buys and manages hotels and restaurants across Canada, is suing Chen for allegedly cutting it out of a deal to buy the Metropolitan, after inviting Chen to take part in the purchase as a capital partner in 2017. Global Edge says it gave Chen confidential information about the opportunity.....

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/...rmer-buys-big-vancouver-first-us39m-home

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Nothing to see here, right Misher? Move along everyone...

Chinese former duck farmer buys big in Vancouver: first a US$39m home, then a US$3.9m car, now a downtown hotel
Tycoon Chen Mailin, once a member of China’s top political advisory body, is revealed in a lawsuit as the new owner of the 213-room Metropolitan Hotel Vancouver
Chen previously paid the highest price ever for a home in the Canadian city, before his credit card was used to buy a customised Bugatti Chiron supercar
Ian Young
Published: 2:42am, 17 Dec, 2019

Chen Mailin, a Chinese former duck farmer turned tycoon, has made a habit of big purchases in Vancouver.
Five years ago he bought a 17,000 sq ft Italianate mansion in Point Grey, one of the city's most expensive neighbourhoods, for what is thought to have been the highest price ever paid for a home in the city (or Canada, for that matter): C$51.8 million (US$39 million).
Then, this April, his Union Pay credit card was used by his son to pay C$5.1 million (US$3.9 million) for what is surely one of the city’s most expensive cars – a customised Bugatti Chiron.
Now, a lawsuit has revealed that Chen – a former member of the Chinese government’s top advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – is the new owner of the 213-room Metropolitan Hotel Vancouver in the city’s downtown core...

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/...rmer-buys-big-vancouver-first-us39m-home

Yep, he's Canadian Probably bought it off Quebec as I just posted earlier. According to you its foreigners that are the problem so you can't criticize this guy.

SCMP notes that Chen Mailin is also a permanent Canadian resident (just in case Beijing decided to issue a fatwa on the nouveau-riche billionaire).

https://www.philstockworld.com/2019/04/1...-dads-credit-card-complains-about-taxes/

[Pinus]

Originally Posted by misher

Yep, he's Canadian Probably bought it off Quebec as I just posted earlier. According to you its foreigners that are the problem so you can't criticize this guy.



https://www.philstockworld.com/2019/04/1...-dads-credit-card-complains-about-taxes/

You realise your last quote just shot your rebuttal all to hell, right?

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by misher

Its been agreed by many that Canada's housing prices have been largely driven by low interest rates and debt. Canadian debt is massive! If Canadians are taking on 2x more debt than its obvious that prices they can afford will be greater!

Quite amazing that you think the correct response to rising Canadian debt is to let house prices increase. That is ludicrous.

The more sensible approach is to see that it is too easy to obtain debt, and this has help exacerbate the problem that is high house prices. And thus, stricter limits should be placed on borrowing.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by misher

Re posting this from CANZAK as it is relevant. I am disputing the claims that foreigners are responsible for our prices because the data I see shows that any foreigner can become a PR pretty easily. So rather than say foreigners the only acceptable group you can finger is immigrants.



Doing the math they have made $184 million annually since 1986 and that doesn't account for inflation from this alone. Likely more like $300 million annually in today's dollars.

With a population of around 8 million this means each person receives $37.50 a year from immigration. If you directed that money to the homeless only (about 1%) then that's $3,750 for every homeless person which is a very significant subsidy.

I think they've benefited a lot already from it don't you think? Honestly it seems like Quebec has benefited the most from immigration while the other provinces, as usual, have been forced to take on the burden. Honestly Quebec has always been the province best at taking the benefits and making the problems someone else's. Maybe Quebec should be handing over all the money it made off immigrants to the cities forced to house them since they obviously don't end up in Quebec. Less than 10% of the people you sold our citizenship to end up being your burden while 90%+ of the burden becomes ours. If I sound angry its because I am, Quebec constantly abuses Canada by making a quick profit and then sticking us with the burden. Every year you take take take and give us nothing but grief back

Seriously one of the biggest reasons I criticize whatnext and others is that they are idiots who focuses on foreigners buying real estate. Foreigners don't buy our real estate, immigrants do. Any foreigner with money can go buy citizenship from Quebec and become an immigrant. If you believe demand from outside Canada has ruined our housing market then the finger can be pointed straight at Quebec for letting that demand in and taking their commission off it.

You are easily the worst poster on this forum at the moment. Holy shit. What the hell are you babbling about?

[theman23]

Also quit spamming the forums with graphs you can’t even ducking read.

[misher]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Quite amazing that you think the correct response to rising Canadian debt is to let house prices increase. That is ludicrous.

The more sensible approach is to see that it is too easy to obtain debt, and this has help exacerbate the problem that is high house prices. And thus, stricter limits should be placed on borrowing.

I never said this. I personally think we should make borrowing more difficult especially for those with little in savings.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by misher

I never said this. I personally think we should make borrowing more difficult especially for those with little in savings.

OK good.

[misher]

[SpongeG]

Despite recent sales spike, analyst predicts Greater Vancouver market will see more owners losing homes

BY MARCELLA BERNARDO
Posted Dec 15, 2019 9:20 am PST Last Updated Dec 15, 2019

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – Don’t believe the hype. That’s a real estate tracker’s warning about claims home sales in Greater Vancouver are climbing up again.

Dane Eitel, the founder and lead analyst of Eitel Insights, says the market will get worse next year.

“We could see a very real day of reckoning here come 2020 to the detached market and that’s where we’re actually going to see some need-based selling, which we haven’t seen for many, many years, to the ’90s.”

November’s numbers from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver show residential sales rose more than 55 per cent compared to a year ago, but Eitel says monthly detached home sales haven’t topped 950 since 2017.

...

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/12/15/...ncouver-market-more-owners-losing-homes/

[ssiguy]

This continued slow sales in the SFH market is expected. It was only Chinese and drug crime syndicates that could afford Vancouver homes and now that the noose has tightened, sellers are actually having to try to sell their homes to Vancouverites for people...................wait for it.............to actually live in.

Even in low income, suburban Surrey and Langley, the average price of a SFH is still over $1 million and which working person in Vancouver can afford that? Now the homes are looking for buyers and there aren't any but unfortunately thoudsands of once affordable homes are owned by very few people and bought just a couple years ago for a quick flip or money cleaning. Those crooks, unless the government REALLY starts going after their criminality and tax avoidance, are in a position just to take them off the market and wait for better days.

[misher]

This continued slow sales in the SFH market is expected. It was only Chinese and drug crime syndicates that could afford Vancouver homes and now that the noose has tightened, sellers are actually having to try to sell their homes to Vancouverites for people...................wait for it.............to actually live in.

What proof do you have? I just posted a photo showing that the highest incomes in Vancouver live in the most expensive neighbourhoods. Does that mean the Chinese and drug criminals pay the most taxes? Or are you saying the renters in those areas are so rich that it doesn't matter that every homeowner doesn't pay income taxes?

https://www.ratespy.com/we-may-again-see-mortgage-insurance-for-properties-over-1-million-121611374

We May Again See Mortgage Insurance for Properties Over $1 Million

In 2012, Canadians lost the ability to buy $1 million+ homes with less than 20% down. The Finance Department put the kibosh on it, in its hotly debated quest to “reduce taxpayer risk.”

But now, there’s hope that well-qualified borrowers will once again be able to buy a 7-figure shack with just 10% down. Genworth Canada, the nation’s biggest private insurer, has petitioned the banking regulator (OSFI) to allow it to insure such properties without a government guarantee.

If successful, homebuyers in the $1 million+ market won’t have to save as long for a down payment and/or hit up the Bank of Mom and Dad for as much money.

Genworth hopes to offer this product in 2020, pending OSFI’s approval (which is not a certainty by any means).

[whatnext]

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