Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[misher]

I thought this was pretty interesting. We usually look at the benchmark prices when saying that prices in Vancouver have fallen, but it appears the average has gone up not down.
I guess this means the prices of the cheapest places have gone up so much that it cancels out any luxury housing losses? Or perhaps whats selling is newer/bigger? I'm not sure anyone care to explain this better?

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 10,770, a 12.5 per cent decrease compared to November 2018 (12,307) and a 12 per cent decrease compared to October 2019 (12,236).

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2019 is 23.2 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 17.2 per cent for detached homes, 24.9 per cent for townhomes, and 29.3 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

[misher]

Local real estate board data for Toronto & Vancouver show big gains in the sales-to-new listing ratios in November. This suggests the national ratio reached 65.0, almost surpassing 2017 levels and pointing to v. strong house price inflation #cdnecon

Likely we will see strong price gains in Canada shortly if this continues. Especially once the Liberals increase the FTHB program. Winter is supposed to be the slow season so Spring should be crazy crazy.

[misher]

Up Up and Away!

https://business.financialpost.com/news/...mortgage-stress-test?video_autoplay=true

Finance minister Bill Morneau to 'review and consider' changes to mortgage stress test

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has asked Finance Minister Bill Morneau to consider changes to the mortgage stress test that Canada’s real estate industry has criticized for being a drag on the housing market.

A mandate letter sent by Trudeau to Morneau — which was released Friday, along with letters sent to other ministers — says the finance minister will “review and consider recommendations from financial agencies related to making the borrower stress test more dynamic.”

The review was not among the commitments the Liberals made during the fall federal election, but the Conservatives had pledged to “fix” the test to help first-time homebuyers and those renewing their mortgages. Trudeau and the Liberals will need support from the other parties to pass legislation after having their majority in the House of Commons reduced to a minority in October’s vote.

[whatnext]

Nothig will help Vancouver's high-end condo and SFH market. That peking duck is cooked:

Armed with new data, B.C. set for crackdown on tax evasion in Vancouver property market

Government policies aimed at reducing speculation in Vancouver’s property market have worked to curb foreign buying and speculative demand. That was merely part one, says high-profile immigration lawyer and analyst, Richard Kurland, who’s been studying the impact of those policies.

“Part 1 was putting the machine together,” Mr. Kurland says. “Part 2 is using the machine to go after tax evaders in the Vancouver property market. At the end of the day, we are going to know who owns what, and for every year. We never had that capability before.”

For 2020, he says we should expect to see those policies put to use to flush out buyers that have been failing to declare global income, as well as speculators who’ve been dodging their fair share of capital gains tax. Speculative buying in recent years has driven up prices for local income-earners and shut them out of the market.

But the new collection of income tax data and identification of property ownership allows government to cross-reference with Canada Revenue Agency, Mr. Kurland says. The data, combined with recent changes to Quebec’s Immigrant Investor Program (QIIP), will have the effect of softening Vancouver’s high-end property market even further, the Vancouver-based lawyer says.

He adds that we shouldn’t expect another wave of buyers from Hong Kong who might be seeking refuge from current conflicts with Beijing.

Mr. Kurland says that people holding high-end properties who haven’t been transparent about worldwide income may choose to unload those properties instead of face an audit, bringing more supply onto the market.

“That’s how you get these multi-million dollar homes that are barely occupied,” he says. “Under the old way, if you had six of them, you declare each one as your personal residence. For each one you say, ‘I’m resident here for income tax purposes and I don’t have to pay capital gains,’ when in fact, none of the above is true. They are not income tax residents, so they [are not allowed] a capital gains exemption and it’s not their principal residence. But no one checked. It was an honour system. But no longer.

“So the multiple property holds are now all subject to this new game. Their choice now is, ‘How do I unravel my holdings without taking a bath?'".....(bold mine)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-est...-bc-set-for-crackdown-on-tax-evasion-in/

[lio45]

Wait, you could actually get away with this in BC? No way this would have been possible here. QRA is pretty good at monitoring who gets capital gains exemptions (and they'll be on you like flies on shit very quickly).

[misher]

Originally Posted by lio45

Wait, you could actually get away with this in BC? No way this would have been possible here. QRA is pretty good at monitoring who gets capital gains exemptions (and they'll be on you like flies on shit very quickly).

It’s tracked federally and of course there’s examples of people trying to get away with it. I doubt it’s happening any more in BC than any other province.

[ssiguy]

There are THOUSANDS of homes in Greater Vancouver where the government doesn't even know who owns them because they are bought by numbered companies. Chinese passport buyers & money launderers create fake companies to funnel their money out of China and avoid Canadian income taxes and drug funded organized crime create numbered companies with no employees and no stated owners to clean their money.

It is also very common for $2 million+ homes to have the owners listed as housewives or students and declare absolutely no income yet somehow manage to pay their $10k+ property taxes. Not only do they avoid income taxes but actually get GST returns.
Remember, despite the outrageous cost of housing, huge number of people driving VERY expensive cars, Richmond BC is actually one of Canada's poorest cities..............someone's not declariung their income.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

There are THOUSANDS of homes in Greater Vancouver where the government doesn't even know who owns them because they are bought by numbered companies. Chinese passport buyers & money launderers create fake companies to funnel their money out of China and avoid Canadian income taxes and drug funded organized crime create numbered companies with no employees and no stated owners to clean their money.

It is also very common for $2 million+ homes to have the owners listed as housewives or students and declare absolutely no income yet somehow manage to pay their $10k+ property taxes. Not only do they avoid income taxes but actually get GST returns.
Remember, despite the outrageous cost of housing, huge number of people driving VERY expensive cars, Richmond BC is actually one of Canada's poorest cities..............someone's not declariung their income.

I thought BC was changing its legislation to require the beneficial owner of property to be on public record.

[misher]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I thought BC was changing its legislation to require the beneficial owner of property to be on public record.

Meh it’s a dumb legislation. In the end Vancouver has a lower percentage of corporate real estate ownership than many cities in Canada. There’s a ton of good tax reasons to own real estate through a numbered company.

I know when people mention hundreds or thousands they are full of shit because they know if they mentioned the percentage it would be insignificant. Same goes for foreign buyers or empty homes, percentage wise Vancouver is Lower than many Canadian cities yet somehow it makes the real estate prices high here but no where else. That’s why I keep saying that our housing crisis will get worse because people use racism and fear of the unknown to drive us to attack the easy targets that do nothing to improve things. NIMBYs, racists, and the political left ally to halt all construction in Vancouver and screw our housing as everyone points fingers instead of enacting solutions.

[theman23]

There's nothing inherently wrong with buying a property through a corporation. While there may be some tax advantages in specific circumstances, these generally don't apply to foreign purchases who arrive with bags of cash on hand and would be better served just buying the property and taking advantage of the capital gains exemption when they sell. There is no tax advantage to purchasing through a corporation in this situation. Not sure what that graph is trying to prove. The BC law is meant to combat money laundering and white collar crime, i.e. make sure that the money earned to purchase the home in the first place was fairly taxed.

Vancouver gets singled out because the housing price: income ratio is completely out of whack here. When the average person lives just above the poverty line, but the average home price (home, not house) is nearly a million dollars, the market is being influenced by external factors.

[ssiguy]

BC is finally beginning to crack down on numbered companies but the legislation/implementation won't happen until Spring 2020.

As for rising sales in Vancouver, this is completely expected. Eventhough unemployment has been rising consistently in BC for the past 6 months, as ussual the Vancouver housing market is completely detached from the local economy and income levels. So what's happened to change the housing market so dramatically? Well as usual nothing in BC and everything in China ie Hong Kong.

Las Vegas...................what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas
Vancouver...................what happens in China, stays in Vancouver

[misher]

Originally Posted by theman23

There's nothing inherently wrong with buying a property through a corporation. While there may be some tax advantages in specific circumstances, these generally don't apply to foreign purchases who arrive with bags of cash on hand and would be better served just buying the property and taking advantage of the capital gains exemption when they sell. There is no tax advantage to purchasing through a corporation in this situation. Not sure what that graph is trying to prove.

Vancouver gets singled out because the housing price: income ratio is completely out of whack here. When the average person lives just above the poverty line, but the average home price (home, not house) is nearly a million dollars, the market is being influenced by external factors.

Vancouver is a place full of retirees and students which massively manipulates the data. You have a bunch of people making no income who bring the whole average down. Does it make sense that people in Langley make 20-30% more on average despite home prices being 1/4th and being outside the downtown core where all the highly paid executives are?

Rather than look at average incomes you should look at average prices in the center of other major west coast cities: LA, San Francisco, etc. or look at population density of which Vancouver is #1 in Canada and #3 in North America (if you don’t count mexico).

[theman23]

Originally Posted by misher

Vancouver is a place full of retirees and students which massively manipulates the data. You have a bunch of people making no income who bring the whole average down. Does it make sense that people in Langley make 20-30% more on average despite home prices being 1/4th and being outside the downtown core where all the highly paid executives are?

Rather than look at average incomes you should look at average prices in the center of other major west coast cities: LA, San Francisco, etc. or look at population density of which Vancouver is #1 in Canada and #3 in North America (if you don’t count mexico).

Laugh.

There are barely any highly paid executives in Vancouver. Walk into any luxury store or car dealership in this city. They're full of rich Chinese kids, not "high paid executives". Who the fuck would even employ these "highly paid executives"?

Langley has a higher income because the people that live there actually work for a living.

Vancouver's proportion of retirees and students is no higher than the BC or Canadian average. The majority of people living here are in their prime income earning years. Have you even looked this up?

[misher]

Originally Posted by theman23

Laugh.

There are barely any highly paid executives in Vancouver. Walk into any luxury store or car dealership in this city. They're full of rich Chinese kids, not "high paid executives". Who the fuck would even employ these "highly paid executives"?

Langley has a higher income because the people that live there actually work for a living.

Vancouver's proportion of retirees and students is no higher than the BC or Canadian average. The majority of people living here are in their prime income earning years. Have you even looked this up?

I actually read the presentations by staff to city council that discuss this stuff.

Given that you think only Chinese have money I can already tell your a racist asshole. West Vancouver and Vancouver West where the money is is 70%+ white and yet you complain they aren’t rich enough? Damn racists just ruin this city. Maybe you should move to the interior if you hate Asians so much.

[whatnext]

Oh look poor Misher trying to play the victim card again. Let's get our facts from a reliable source, like Bloomberg:

Vancouver was the first place to experience the tidal wave of Chinese cash. Now the city is leading efforts to stop it.

...It’s a product of one of the largest financial flows of the 21st century: The money being frenetically shuffled by millions of wealthy Chinese into safe assets abroad, in defiance of their country’s capital controls. Since mid-2014, capital flight from China may have totaled as much as $800 billion, according to estimates from the Institute of International Finance.

In Vancouver, the tidal wave has wrought a dramatic economic, demographic, and physical transformation. Alberni Street, a formerly dowdy downtown thoroughfare, has in the past decade welcomed a two-level Prada boutique with a black marble facade, one of the largest Rolex showrooms in North America, and a 62-story tower with a five-star Shangri-La hotel. All have Mandarin-speaking staff. In May, Rolls-Royce chose Vancouver to unveil its first sport utility vehicle, which starts at more than $300,000, hosting a Champagne reception at its sleek new local dealership in an upmarket neighborhood about two miles south of Alberni. Six sold on the first day—bound, perhaps, for the “car condo,” a kind of luxe garage with customizable suites that’s being built in a majority-Asian suburb. The units start at more than C$800,000, and the first batch recently sold out....

...Of course, for these changes to be effective, the government will need to know who actually owns property in Vancouver. Statistics Canada didn’t release figures on foreign real estate ownership until 2017, when it reported that nonresidents of the country owned more than 7 percent of the city’s dwellings. The federal housing agency says that’s an underestimate, though, because overseas investors can route purchases through Canadian relatives or shell companies. In 2016, Transparency International found that the ownership of almost half of Vancouver’s 100 most expensive properties, representing at least C$1 billion in anonymous wealth, was effectively untraceable...(bold mine)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-20/vancouver-is-drowning-in-chinese-money

[misher]

Whatnext:
Say the Chinese come here, own all the expensive homes, and pay no income tax.
Ignore stats that show that the expensive neighbourhoods pay a lot higher income tax.

There’s a strong correlation between a higher % of caucasians in an area, higher house prices, and higher reported incomes.

Places you expect to find a large proportion of caucasians are all high income: white rock, Vancouver west, north vancouver, delta, langley, and west Vancouver. While areas of racial minorities like East van, Richmond, and surrey are low income.

Caucasians have somehow blamed racial minorities in poor neighbourhoods for every problem from their mansions in rich ones.

Im am disgusted that whatnext among others is allowed to spread the same racist propaganda that’s been going around bc for over 200 years. You blamed Asians for in affordability back in 1920, it was wrong then and it’s wrong now. Fucking racists.



It’s hilarious that your racist ancestors criticized Asians for being too poor to afford homes and now your criticizing them for being too rich and buying homes. Basically nothing will make you happy because in the end your just looking for excuses to be a racist dick.

[Pinus]

Originally Posted by misher

Whatnext:
Say the Chinese come here, own all the expensive homes, and pay no income tax.
Ignore stats that show that the expensive neighbourhoods pay a lot higher income tax.

There’s a strong correlation between a higher % of caucasians in an area, higher house prices, and higher reported incomes.

Places you expect to find a large proportion of caucasians are all high income: white rock, Vancouver west, north vancouver, delta, langley, and west Vancouver. While areas of racial minorities like East van, Richmond, and surrey are low income.

Caucasians have somehow blamed racial minorities in poor neighbourhoods for every problem from their mansions in rich ones.

Im am disgusted that whatnext among others is allowed to spread the same racist propaganda that’s been going around bc for over 200 years. You blamed Asians for in affordability back in 1920, it was wrong then and it’s wrong now. Fucking racists.



It’s hilarious that your racist ancestors criticized Asians for being too poor to afford homes and now your criticizing them for being too rich and buying homes. Basically nothing will make you happy because in the end your just looking for excuses to be a racist dick.

And yet you remain silent on the racism Chinese display to Africans, other Asians or Caucasians. Typical of a Master Xi puppet. I would expect nothing less from a hypocrite such as yourself.

I look forward to your blatant denial and apologetic excuses scripted for you by Beijing.

Your loyalty to the red flag will catch up with you some day.

[misher]

Originally Posted by Pinus

And yet you remain silent on the racism Chinese display to Africans, other Asians or Caucasians. Typical of a Master Xi puppet. I would expect nothing less from a hypocrite such as yourself.

I look forward to your blatant denial and apologetic excuses scripted for you by Beijing.

Your loyalty to the red flag will catch up with you some day.

Chinese in China can be incredibly racist? It took losing to the Europeans to really drive in that China wasn't the superior ethnic center of the world with the mandate of heaven but with their recent rebuilding they are again pretty proud and arrogant. The only race they don't look down on is Caucasians although they've lost a lot of the respect that they used to have. But what does that have to do with anything over in Canada. Over in South Africa there are political activists calling for the genocide of all Caucasians in Africa does that mean its right to be racist to African-Canadians in Canada? A lot of Romanians hate Poles. Many Caucasians still hate Jews. In Dubai Indians and South-East Asians face persecution. Canadians spent centuries discriminating against First Nations and other coloreds. How does the behavior of people of one color somewhere else justify your behavior towards people of that color here?

Judging people by the color of their skin and not by their actions is the definition of racism. It really doesn't matter what someone else does or if they share a trait with another person because that other person is an individual and his race/color/culture/religion do not define him.

[Pinus]

Originally Posted by misher

Chinese in China can be incredibly racist? It took losing to the Europeans to really drive in that China wasn't the superior ethnic center of the world with the mandate of heaven but with their recent rebuilding they are again pretty proud and arrogant. The only race they don't look down on is Caucasians although they've lost a lot of the respect that they used to have. But what does that have to do with anything over in Canada. Over in South Africa there are political activists calling for the genocide of all Caucasians in Africa does that mean its right to be racist to African-Canadians in Canada? A lot of Romanians hate Poles. Many Caucasians still hate Jews. In Dubai Indians and South-East Asians face persecution. Canadians spent centuries discriminating against First Nations and other coloreds. How does the behavior of people of one color somewhere else justify your behavior towards people of that color here?

Judging people by the color of their skin and not by their actions is the definition of racism. It really doesn't matter what someone else does or if they share a trait with another person because that other person is an individual and his race/color/culture/religion do not define him.

Just as I expected. Deflections and red herrings all over the place.

You have done Master Xi proud, young grasshopper.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Pinus

And yet you remain silent on the racism Chinese display to Africans, other Asians or Caucasians. Typical of a Master Xi puppet. I would expect nothing less from a hypocrite such as yourself.

I look forward to your blatant denial and apologetic excuses scripted for you by Beijing.

Your loyalty to the red flag will catch up with you some day.

One doesn't even have to look as far afield as Africa, apparently some of the contempt shown by Chinese students at Eric Hamber towards their Vietnamese classmates is legendary.