Taken from 321 W. 6th Thread:
Quote:
Originally Posted by We vs us
Wow. I thought it was the vaporware tower on San Jac, in the middle of the CC expansion.
There's really just so much going on right now. I have no idea how to measure a given Austin building surge (I've only been here for 5 years) but it seems like you could reasonably call this one of the "busiest" times (for groundbreakings, for permitting, for proposals, for general activities) in recent years.
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I too have been thinking a lot recently about how to dichotomize Austin’s “booms” I remember my mom would travel here in the late 2000s/early 2010s and say Austin’s Downtown was getting new buildings — mostly residential/hotel, that a lot of tech campuses were on “Silicon Hill” but DT was going vertical in residential/hotel categories more than it had so in the past.
I was like 14, with no real conception of Texas, much less Austin, so I always considered Austin more like a little city (at least from a building standpoint). Being from Chicago, I thought of it as like a “small city” and the density/skyline sort of reflected that when I moved there in 2012.
Now, this was after that first wave (Austonian/Monarch/Ashton/W/Four Seasons/Spring), so by 2012 with all of that getting built post-2008 and into 2011 (surprising given the broader real estate crisis in this country at that time), I had felt like I’d missed the “boom”
As I finished high school, seeing projects like The Bowie, Colorado Tower (first new office DT since Frost), and JW Mariott break ground, felt like maybe the residual sputterings of that 2008-2012 boom.
But then things just exploded with Greenwater, Seaholm, and Rainey. It was like never ending — and surely what old me would have considered the rational end of an extended boom cycle.
But I’d grown a little more savvy by then as far as understanding RE markets, demand/absorption etc. and all indications were that despite rising interest rates, Austin was sort of an anomaly because it still had palpable need from a condo/hotel key/and CBD office standpoint given the sheer demand.
Apartments I felt were a little over-built, but then with the growing number of companies setting stakes here or expanding here, even that category looked like it could maintain life (as evidenced by 3rd & Brazos, Hanover, Alexan and Quincy)
Yet it just seems like the dollars and demand are flowing at rates beyond imagination, and with complementary categories to boot.
Single and “married with no kids” professionals who work DT (given the profile of the office tenants/salaries we’re seeing occupy new CBD construction) not only can afford but also choose to occupy these luxury apartments. New condo developments are really catering to “families” now with all the amenities, meaning West Lake, Terrytown folks could easily make the switch and help fuel pre-sales just from Austin alone, to say nothing of higher-level execs and matured professionals relocating with families from the Bay for work. This looping cycle could go on for a long time, as each project complements/drives one another.
As long as quality companies keep moving to the CBD, apartment/hotel demand will remain stable. And as that wealth grows, so will the condo market.
All that said, here’s how I’ve personally classified the “boom” periods:
Period I: 2004-2012 (mainly 2008-12)
Frost Bank Tower
Austin City Lofts
Hilton
360
Four Seasons
The Monarch
Spring
Amli on 2nd
W Hotel
Town Hall
Ashton
Austonian
Federal courthouse
Period II: 2013-2018
Gables Park Plaza*
Whitley
PNC Bank
J.W. Mariott
3rd & Colorado
Westin
Seven
Bowie
Hotel Indigo
Hotel Van Zandt
Aloft Element Hotel
Seaholm
Northshore
5th & Colorado
UT System Headquarters
Google Tower
The Rise
Shoal Creek Walk
The Fairmont
Third + Shoal
SXSW HQ
70 Rainey
5th & West
The Independent
Austin Proper
Homewood Suites
Hotel ZaZa
Period III: 2019-
Marriott*
Block 71 (Indeed)*
5th & Brazos
Block 185 (Google)
Parsley Energy Tower
4th & Colorado
Natiivo Austin
44 East
Alexan Capitol
The Quincy
The Huston
425 Riverside
Hanover Republic Square
6 X Guadalupe
There’s some bleedover, but these periods felt distinct to me at least. Now, what’s astonishing is that 2013-2018 period saw UC/delivery of pretty much all those projects over a six year span, meaning they weren’t exactly all “active” simultaneously.
Right now, we’re talking 14 significant active projects really all just breaking ground within the last 12 months. This has to be the “busiest period” in terms of simultaneous — similar phase — activity. And the pipeline is still growing.
So the reality is that 2008-present has really been non-stop construction but late 2018-present is steroid-level construction, and on the heels of what some felt could be a slowdown just given macro-global economy factors. Not in Austin. Chicago, NYC, Miami, San Fran, and Philly to an extent are also seeing just ridiculous high-rise development btw. But from a concentration, and proportional level, Austin really stands out since similar volume as those cities essentially doubles our existing skyline, and it’s happening over and over and at a lower metro population to support it. Austin may not be the biggest metro even in Texas, but it’s DT is quickly becoming arguably the most dense in the state.
I’d love to see “start date — delivery” timelines visually mapped for all the above projects with a cross-section cutting through to find the point of most simultaneous activity. I’d imagine such a visual data display would pinpoint 2019 as the “peak” and we’re still peaking.
Not to mention, I excluded West Campus, Domain, and broader projects in my “boom” discussion, mainly focusing on the CBD-core, although DT will soon bleed into West Campus if the Pipeline is any indication.
West Campus itself delivered like 8 or so high-rises just during my 4 years at UT. (2014-2018)
Simply, Insane.
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