DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

Median price for a home in the Denver area was $423,200 in October
November 5, 2019 By Donna Bryson - Denverite

According to Zillow the medium price in (City of) Phoenix is $246,400 and the medium price of a home in metro Phoenix is $271,600.

Why the difference? Because there are the tons and tons of low-cost and lower-cost and middle housing that has been built along the way. Why? Because most of the population doesn't make the Big Bucks so that's how it was zoned and developed.

[SnyderBock]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Median price for a home in the Denver area was $423,200 in October
November 5, 2019 By Donna Bryson - Denverite

According to Zillow the medium price in (City of) Phoenix is $246,400 and the medium price of a home in metro Phoenix is $271,600.

Why the difference? Because there are the tons and tons of low-cost and lower-cost and middle housing that has been built along the way. Why? Because most of the population doesn't make the Big Bucks so that's how it was zoned and developed.

The medium income in Denver is $43,000/yr. The medium house is $423,000. So if a married couple both at the medium income earn $86,000/yr, they should be able to afford a medium house at $423,000. So in Phoenix, that same couple would only need to earn about $25,000/yr each to afford a medium house of $271,000.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by SnyderBock

The medium income in Denver is $43,000/yr. The medium house is $423,000. So if a married couple both at the medium income earn $86,000/yr, they should be able to afford a medium house at $423,000. So in Phoenix, that same couple would only need to earn about $25,000/yr each to afford a medium house of $271,000.

Excellent thought and good eye.

So I google Metro Denver and Metro Phoenix. Source: the Department of Numbers

• Denver metro median income: $76,643
• Phoenix metro median income: $61,506

[The Dirt]

Originally Posted by laniroj

I've been working on a rezone in Lakewood (yes we lost the original project due to the growth initiative). The site is a half block from a major N/S arterial and two blocks from a MAJOR intersection - some of the best transit Lakewood has to offer. We've been working with neighborhood associations (ie 10-15 people) since July, trying to figure out what they will support. In that entire time, we've managed to schedule 3 meetings, two in group settings and one with group leaders. We've canvassed homes, businesses, and charitable organizations. Our meetings consist of us presenting our vision BUT with the major caveat, we want to hear what you'd like to see. We bring markers and charts with pictures and other info to stimulate public engagement. Nothing happens, nobody partakes. We sit there with a bunch of folks with nothing better to do whose singular focus is making sure nothing ever changes.

Everyone bemoans growth, talks about traffic and density and how they can't take it anymore. Despite bending over backwards to try and find out what people want and receiving little to no input on any level, begging for meetings, begging for input, people still don't trust developers and blame us for all of the "negative change".

The "engagement" that goes on in greater Denver is a farce (and I suspect nationally too). Local leaders need to wake up and realize that the process is broken. We have a huge chunk of support from the people we've canvassed that far outnumbers the couple of naysayers involved in the RNOs, but can't move forward without the support of official RNOs. Unless RNOs have some threshold of participation, local leaders should just stop accepting their endorsements (or not) as legitimate. Despite months and months of outreach and engagement, this is what that process yields:

As a member of an RNO and a housing advocacy group, everything you say is true. Denver city council is finally starting the process of looking at RNO reform. The city depends on RNOs far too much to do most of the grunt work, but the trouble is that the most engaged are the oldest, wealthiest, and more established neighbors. Renters, single mothers, and anyone that doesn't care enough aren't or can't be engaged. So, you end up with a bunch of angry kooks that like to stir the pot, sue developers and advocates, all in the name of no change ever anywhere over their dead bodies. They're very effective at whipping up their neighbors into a frenzy with outright lies and hysteria. Meanwhile, developer has become a dirty word.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

As a member of an RNO and a housing advocacy group, everything you say is true. Denver city council is finally starting the process of looking at RNO reform. The city depends on RNOs far too much to do most of the grunt work, but the trouble is that the most engaged are the oldest, wealthiest, and more established neighbors. Renters, single mothers, and anyone that doesn't care enough aren't or can't be engaged. So, you end up with a bunch of angry kooks that like to stir the pot, sue developers and advocates, all in the name of no change ever anywhere over their dead bodies. They're very effective at whipping up their neighbors into a frenzy with outright lies and hysteria. Meanwhile, developer has become a dirty word.

Didn't used to be that way though! I'm a huge believer in communication, collaboration, and consensus but it's just not possible anymore - the people who own homes no longer have the mental capacity to handle these discussions other than to say no to everything. Another 20 years and the problem will be solved. Maybe I'll retire for 20 then come back for a later life renaissance!

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by laniroj

I vote we close the entire West Line due to the RTD driver shortage and redeploy those drivers in other places so we can keep those other places at full service.

When the Lakewood vote was final, I posted much the same.

I suggested frequent Light Rail service between DUS and the Sheridan Station. One of the key tenets of FasTracks was that it would direct future dense development nearby to train stations AND along major transit corridors. There's little point in having much service through Lakewood under the current circumstances.

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

I think smart growth and development is critical for the city - and that means greater density in areas that have no real density today. This may be a minority view that will become politically impossible in much of the metro.

This is why I posted the info about housing costs in Denver and Phoenix. The upper ends of the market are very similar in both places ie there's only so much highly desired property.

The reason the "median prices" vary so much is the tremendous volume of more affordable housing in metro Phoenix. The "median" is the dividing point of prices based on volume. The large volume of lower cost housing in Phoenix has an out-sized influence on lowering the median price.

Since the end of the Great Recession Denver's new construction has skewed towards higher cost housing which has had an out-sized influence on where the median price falls in Denver given the paucity of new more affordable housing.

It's a metro problem since most people aren't limited by a name or boundaries where they choose to live. Unfortunately the suburbs, as Sam Hill describes are even more important since there's so much more land area in the suburbs.

Originally Posted by The Dirt

As a member of an RNO and a housing advocacy group, everything you say is true. Denver city council is finally starting the process of looking at RNO reform. The city depends on RNOs far too much to do most of the grunt work, but the trouble is that the most engaged are the oldest, wealthiest, and more established neighbors. Renters, single mothers, and anyone that doesn't care enough aren't or can't be engaged. So, you end up with a bunch of angry kooks that like to stir the pot, sue developers and advocates, all in the name of no change ever anywhere over their dead bodies. They're very effective at whipping up their neighbors into a frenzy with outright lies and hysteria. Meanwhile, developer has become a dirty word.

That makes a lot of sense even though Denver is a relatively 'young' city. Only 10% of the population is over 65; another 20% are over 45. But if younger people aren't participating...

More importantly IMO is that - for starters - two blocks either side of major corridors like Colfax, Broadway, Colorado Blvd, Speer/Leetsdale and Federal should be up-zoned.

Then there's been the crazy 'view-plane' limitations on height which at least is now being reconsidered in some places along with density bonuses for affordable housing.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Changing topics a bit, I did a drive around town today and couldn't help but feel there are a million missed opportunities for how Denver has developed. For example, RiNo is probably the hottest neighborhood in Denver when it comes to new development. However, it seems to me to be one of the least walkable neighborhoods. It is separated by train tracks and most of the interesting retail is not very accessible from 38th and Blake. I would have much preferred if we incentivized Broadway Station/mid-town and River Mile before RiNo. 38th and Blake has one rail line whereas Broadway Station has five. I don't know. I find it frustrating that a suburb like Lone Tree seems to have better urban planning than much of Denver.

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Changing topics a bit, I did a drive around town today and couldn't help but feel there are a million missed opportunities for how Denver has developed. For example, RiNo is probably the hottest neighborhood in Denver when it comes to new development. However, it seems to me to be one of the least walkable neighborhoods. It is separated by train tracks and most of the interesting retail is not very accessible from 38th and Blake. I would have much preferred if we incentivized Broadway Station/mid-town and River Mile before RiNo. 38th and Blake has one rail line whereas Broadway Station has five. I don't know. I find it frustrating that a suburb like Lone Tree seems to have better urban planning than much of Denver.

Blake St station is supposed to have a light rail line extended to it. it'll be 25 years, but it's in the works!!!

[bulldurhamer]

speaking of rino, one of the more interesting rental projects is now going to be a fancy hotel.
https://businessden.com/2019/11/06/propo...-turns-into-hotel-as-sage-joins-project/

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Changing topics a bit, I did a drive around town today and couldn't help but feel there are a million missed opportunities for how Denver has developed. For example, RiNo is probably the hottest neighborhood in Denver when it comes to new development. However, it seems to me to be one of the least walkable neighborhoods. It is separated by train tracks and most of the interesting retail is not very accessible from 38th and Blake. I would have much preferred if we incentivized Broadway Station/mid-town and River Mile before RiNo. 38th and Blake has one rail line whereas Broadway Station has five. I don't know. I find it frustrating that a suburb like Lone Tree seems to have better urban planning than much of Denver.

Lone Tree is by far and wide the most progressive, forward thinking municipality in the Denver area. They are wonderful. It greatly helps that they started from nothing and essentially have one master developer for everything with generational long term capital. The only poor decision Lone Tree made was allowing high end single family homes first, who then decried everything that came after...but they've had strong leadership that has ignored the typical naysayers.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

Blake St station is supposed to have a light rail line extended to it. it'll be 25 years, but it's in the works!!!

haha, just like the line to Boulder and Longmont...RTD is going to build the lines and then there will be nobody to run the trains!

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Changing topics a bit, I did a drive around town today and couldn't help but feel there are a million missed opportunities for how Denver has developed. For example, RiNo is probably the hottest neighborhood in Denver when it comes to new development. However, it seems to me to be one of the least walkable neighborhoods. It is separated by train tracks and most of the interesting retail is not very accessible from 38th and Blake. I would have much preferred if we incentivized Broadway Station/mid-town and River Mile before RiNo. 38th and Blake has one rail line whereas Broadway Station has five. I don't know. I find it frustrating that a suburb like Lone Tree seems to have better urban plann it frustrating that a suburb like Lone Tree seems to have better urban planning than much of Denver.

RiNO won by default - cheap land, no real opposition to redeveloping abandoned or underutilized industrial property, and proximity to downtown and transit. As someone who regularly goes out and "walks" in RiNo i disagree strongly with the notion it is one of the "least walkable" neighborhoods. Indeed, I would characterize RiNO as one of the "most walkable" neighborhood in the entire metro.

With your reference to the rail tracks you may be referring to the separation between the Brighton Blvd. "RiNo area" and the Larimer/Walnut "RiNO area". Certainly, on that scale, it's not very walkable between these parts of RiNo.

More fundamentally, though RiNo isn't really neighborhood at all officially (most of it is in "Five Points").

Here's the "official" Denver.gov neighborhood map:



In my mind, regardless of official designations, I think of at least 4, and perhaps five "neighborhoods" or "areas" that are sometimes referred to when talking about RiNo:

1. Five Points - this is primarily the Welton Street corridor and immediately adjacent areas north of Park Avenue. This always has been, and should remain known as Five Points.

2. Curtis Park - the 19th/early 20th Century housing, residential area around the actual Curtis Park roughly from Stout Street to Lawrence. Again, this has a strong historical identity and sense of place, and should stay that way.

3. "RiNO" the area with dense, preserved/re-developed industrial buildings mixed in with large new residential apartments north of Broadway, from Lawrence to Blake Street.

4. "Brighton Blvd" the largely new (the Source an exception) collection of apartments, office buildings on the west side of the tracks from Blake Street, along and adjacent to Brighton Blvd.

Given the distances, and different development patterns, perhaps you could segment "my" RiNO further, with the Blake Street Station being its own area.

My RiNo is amazingly walkable, and becoming more so as development continues. Ditto for Five Points.

Birighton Blvd. , notwithstanding the massive investment in infrastructure is certainly far less "walkable" by comparison. Blake Street Station is still early in its development, but when completed will certainly be quite walkable. Lone Tree may have some great planners, but I'm skeptical that they will develop anything as urban or walkable as "my RiNo".

[mhays]

City planning districts aren't the authority. They only attempt to follow what's on the ground, and break into workable chunks. And they need to draw a line somewhere even if reality is fuzzy.

A neighborhood or district is a subjective concept.

[BG918]

I was in the area today and it made me remember a project that was discussed here a few years ago. It was a ~30 story high rise next to the Four Seasons at 14th & Lawrence. It seems like if it was going to happen it would’ve already been built but curious if anyone has heard any news? The big blank walls around this site definitely seem to suggest that there is a future building planned at that corner.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I suppose when I think of the exciting retail side of RiNo, I often think of Denver Central Market, Ratio Brewing company, Work and Class, and all of the great restaurants and bars on Larimer Street. When I think of the residential side of RiNo, I think of all of the massive apartments off Brighton Boulevard, such as Denargo Market, Block 32, and the Dylan apartments. I suppose that my concern is that I don't see those disparate areas as being walkable between each other or with 38th and Blake. I think connectivity will improve if even half of the projects in the pipeline break ground.

A more general but not super useful comment: How different would things be if the Central Business District was at Union Station? Given that the freight right-of-way was there a long time ago, we could've had transit ridership like Calgary where half of all downtown workers use transit if all the development in the 70s and 80s took place right outside of Union Station. I feel that the w line, g line, b line, and even a line might have had higher ridership if they went directly into the largest office district in the state. The mall ride and metroride are useful but I fear that the idea of a non-direct itinerary throws people off.

[DenvertoLA]

So I saw that the repeal of TABOR didn't pass...can anyone elaborate on what that means for future taxpayer funded projects? Are there any that will be effected?

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

So I saw that the repeal of TABOR didn't pass...can anyone elaborate on what that means for future taxpayer funded projects? Are there any that will be effected?

No immediate impact; it just doesn't allow a path forward to meet specific transportation needs as CDOT was to receive 1/3 of the (variable) funding. Believe I read where CDOT is going to sell COP's (type of bonds) based on state buildings which will allow for some projects to be built.

Denver-area voters choose pro-growth mayors in municipal elections
Nov 6, 2019 By Ed Sealover – Reporter, Denver Business Journal

Voters in key cities around the Denver metro area chose mayoral candidates on Tuesday night that leaned toward putting fewer restrictions on growth over opponents who favored more limitations, giving a boost to pro-growth forces as the issue is expected to take on increased importance over the next year.

Lakewood, Arvada, Aurora and Thornton were mentioned as cities that did NOT elect anti-growth Mayors.

Additionally two cities elected pro-drilling candidates while Broomfield elected anti-drilling City Council candidates.

But if you want to place bets on whether the proposal for limiting growth to 1%, passes next year, I'll have my odds out by tomorrow and happy to take your money.

[CherryCreek]

As far as the anti-growth initiative, I think it probably passes. It will be interesting to see what sort of formal opposition forms against the anti-growth initiative and what kind of money lines up to oppose it. Even if a pretty good war chest gets built to defeat the proposal, the fact that the Sports Gaming measure is barely eking by despite millions spent to support it and no organized opposition is certainly one indicator that lots of business funding doesn't assure a favorable result on these type of initiatives.

I think a smart campaign making the case that the 1% measure is an extreme measure that will hurt the economy, cost jobs, and increase housing prices is the right messaging. Also, renters need to hear that message and get to the polls. Still, that's a pretty complex message - showing a link between the growth restrictions and housing costs (amazingly, many people seem to believe there is an inverse correlation - just reduce growth, and housing will come down!). The anti-growthers message of "boo!! too much traffic!", is much more visceral and could easily carry the day.

What will really be crazy is if it fails in the counties subject to the restriction, but passes on a state wide level. Lots of legal challenges will follow (which will happen in any case, particularly by home rule cities that don't want to be subject to the restrictions). The fact that the 2020 election, will be, uhmm, a highly contested presidential election will certainly maximize turn out!

On the Tabor changes, higher taxes (or fewer refunds) remains unpopular as ever Lol. The voters have a right to prioritize dollars in their pockets over public spending, even for needed infrastructure. If we have crappy roads and highways, at least it's a choice we've voted on and committed to!

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

A more general but not super useful comment: How different would things be if the Central Business District was at Union Station? Given that the freight right-of-way was there a long time ago, we could've had transit ridership like Calgary where half of all downtown workers use transit if all the development in the 70s and 80s took place right outside of Union Station. I feel that the w line, g line, b line, and even a line might have had higher ridership if they went directly into the largest office district in the state. The mall ride and metroride are useful but I fear that the idea of a non-direct itinerary throws people off.

That is a very interesting point - but let's take a look at what we have.

rds70 insists downtown employment is now ~140,000 so we'll go with that number. According to the Downtown Denver Partnership 40% commute by transit and rail has close to half of what the bus numbers are. That means 55,000 people commute using transit, 18,500 arriving by rail and 36,500 arriving by bus. Those are pretty solid numbers and expected to increase.

Calgary has the same employment base downtown as Denver but consider Seattle where the employment numbers are over twice what Denver has. Logically as downtown Denver continues to add employment transit ridership will continue to grow.

Currently, the light rail lines from the South and SE which go to both DUS and through downtown have stronger ridership to Welton/Stout Street corridors - so much so that PLANSIT has described it as a bit of a traffic jam.

Consider the B Line which only has one station... Oops, they have now added the 41st and Fox and Pecos Junction stations. The Westminster Station just announced a large mixed-use affordable development in planning. If you figure it will be 3 years before they break ground and another 5 years to build then the benefits to transit are a decade away. But that was the whole point of building it now so that TOD would come later. It just takes (lots) of time.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Even if a pretty good war chest gets built to defeat the proposal, the fact that the Sports Gaming measure is barely eking by despite millions spent to support it and no organized opposition is certainly one indicator that lots of business funding doesn't assure a favorable result on these type of initiatives.

There exists a significant sized and natural anti-gambling contingent whether from the conservative/religious right or even liberal anti-addiction concerned citizens. Glad it appears to have passed though.

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

On the Tabor changes, higher taxes (or fewer refunds) remains unpopular as ever Lol. The voters have a right to prioritize dollars in their pockets over public spending, even for needed infrastructure. If we have crappy roads and highways, at least it's a choice we've voted on and committed to!

Reportedly a higher percentage of registered Republicans than Dems turned out for this election. Sadly, political ideology still trumps the Republican base's desire for better roads. But the TABOR vote was also divided among different special interests and even though there exists passionate support for education which would have received two-third's of the funds it was a muddled picture.

The irony is that generally more Republicans favor roads but so long as a chunk of funding is left to local decisions support grows among liberals but again it's ideology over practical considerations. It's the craziest conundrum I've witnessed. More typically defined infrastructure is an easier sell.