Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy
Your comments would make sense if there was a Phase 2 which would take it to Langley Centre but of course there is no Phase 2. The EARLIEST the SkyTrain will make it to Langley is 2040. There will be nothing done between that time as there are other priorities namely extensing the Broadway subway to at least Alma and eventually UBC, a Hastings route to Kootenay loop, 41st Ave LRT, and of course a massive expansion of stations along the current SkyTrain system and doing what they can with the Canada Line McStations.
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If that's what you think then nothing ever would have been done of the Fraser Highway.
Under the LRT plan, funding was only secured for the Newton-Guildford L line. The LRT to Langley fell under unsecured funding. There have been plenty of promises, and Translink carefully budgeted it so that its sources of revenue could cover its share.
That's why they are comparing 2 prices at the Mayor's meeting. One number was how much track can we build with phase 1 funding; the other was what can we build and how much would it go over the originally planned full roll out funding envelope.
Translink had planned a $3.5 billion transit plan for SoF. $1.6 billion was secured for the L line. The rest (Fraser Highway) was doable because Translink could cover their share, they just needed formal agreements.
As it is, Skytrain all the way to Langley falls well under the $3.5 billion envelope if we only make natural upgrades to the 96B line. It actually comes in under the funding envelope by about $400 million.
Skytrain + 96B line is cheaper than the original all LRT plan.
The alternatives looked at in the recent meetings are to examine the possibility and cost of doing more. For example, upgrading the 96B line to full BRT would only cost at most $500 million more than the original envelope. OR, for only an extra $500 million above that, we can have Skytrain to Newton too.
But really, my point was at the end of the day, all the money that Translink was counting on for the SoF Rapid Transit plan is as there as it ever was...
So, if in your opinion, there is no phase 2 money to extend Skytrain from Fleetwood to Langley, then there would have been no money for LRT on Fraser Highway either (as that would have actually cost more).
Do you get that?
When we go to secure funding for phase 2 of Skytrain to Langley, we will need less money than what would have asked for phase 2 of LRT.
Do the math. Skytrain is a $3.12 billion project. We have $1.63 billion. Meaning, we need $1.49 billion to finish.
For LRT, it was a $3.55 billion project. We had $1.63 billion. Meaning we needed $1.92 billion to build the Fraser LRT.
If the $1.92 billion was for some reason a no brainer last year, then $1.63 billion seems like an even easier catch.
And that's not even taking the contigency into account. These prices all include a 25% contingency fund set aside. And if recent history is anything to go by, Vancouver is pretty good at delivering Skytrain on budget and on time, but many jurisdiction struggle to deliver LRT on budget and on time. So really, it's very likely that we will have up to $400 million dollars from the phase 1 budget left over. Now we only need $1 billion to finish Skytrain, and will probably end that project with funds left over.
Why do some people feel this is in doubt?
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