Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Uh, the significant change from 1990 was the explosion in shady money flowing out of Mainland China.

It is charming how naive some are in believing that buyers who risk penalties as high as execution for smuggling wealth out of China will be forthright and honest in filling out an Empty Homes Declaration.

You can check data from before the tax was put in too? Are you saying people lied on their declaration before the tax came in?
You could also just do the math, take the number of people in Vancouver plus the number of international students (I assume only a third are in Vancouver so 150,000/3), (675,218(2017)+50,000) which equals 725218. You have 309418 (2016) dwellings of which 110020 are single person households. So 199398 households for 615198 people. So that's 3.085 people per a multi family household assuming a vacancy rate of 0. Realistically you have to assume a rate of 5% to account for deaths, legal cases, places under renovation, places condemned, under development, etc. Its up to you if you feel we have enough housing, I certainly don't think so. These are super rough numbers but they make you think. Feel free to come to your own conclusions. I feel that what our city has planned doesn't work because they never included the large population of international students we have in both highschool and post-secondary.

Food for thought, its hard to compare ratios of whats normal per household with other cities as we have many more condos/apartments than other cities. In Manhattan its 2.1. For all of France its 2.38. Metro Toronto is 2.7 and Canada is 2.4.

https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/housing-characteristics-fact-sheet.pdf
And btw was taking money out of China illegal back then? I think this only happened after Xi cracked down in 2016-2017.

[SpongeG]

Home sales uptick seen across B.C. in September: BCREA

Residential resale activity “built on momentum from the summer” with transactions up 24 per cent year over year and average prices on the rise

By Joannah Connolly, Glacier Media Real Estate | October 15, 2019

Although residential real estate is seeing a stronger resurgence of activity in Greater Vancouver, the sales uptick is being seen throughout the province, according to the latest monthly data from the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA).

There were 6,938 home sales on the MLS across B.C. in September, the BCREA reported October 15, which is an increase of 24 per cent compared with September 2018.

The average home sale price in September was also higher than one year previously, up 2.1 per cent to $697,943, which is 1.8 per cent higher than in August.

...

https://biv.com/article/2019/10/home-sal...rQImNhJ8P3YxJWUUOAsx5tn_OmSGkCtcMd94wmBo

[memph]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

I was reading recently about some developments going up in West Hollywood/LA, and one of them was a site where a gas station was being replaced by a 200 or so rental building on a former gas station, they paid $7.5 million for the site in Hollywood, Another was a fast food place also being replaced by a large rental development and they paid $10 million for the site also in West Hollywood.

In Vancouver a gas station on Georgia went for $72 million, another site went for $245 million. Land prices are ridiculous in Vancouver.

Do you have a source for the $245m property? I wonder how big it was and the location. I'm guessing downtown and maybe a couple acres?

In Toronto, Bayview Village mall sold for $500m but that's a 22 acre property in the inner suburbs, although it's still highrise zoned. One of the malls in Richmond or Burnaby would be a good comparison.

[memph]

What's the evidence of the condos sitting empty? I'm sure there is a good amount of foreign owned housing, but that doesn't mean they're empty. They could be rented out, or maybe they have their children living in it while studying at UBC/SFU, or the spouse or parents living in it.

[mcminsen]

Originally Posted by memph

Do you have a source for the $245m property? I wonder how big it was and the location. I'm guessing downtown and maybe a couple acres?

In Toronto, Bayview Village mall sold for $500m but that's a 22 acre property in the inner suburbs, although it's still highrise zoned. One of the malls in Richmond or Burnaby would be a good comparison.

Here's a story from the Vancouver Sun:

Vancouver real estate: White Spot site on West Georgia sells for whopping $245 million



Here's a link to the project thread in the Vancouver forum:

1608 & 1616 West Georgia Street | 126.6m + 122.2m | 38 fl | Proposed

[SpongeG]

that's it, it was just under one acre, the chevron that sold for $72 million was next door

https://goo.gl/maps/yWhSn1Doi6Y3wMcX6

Anthem Properties buys West Georgia Street Chevron for $72 million
https://biv.com/article/2017/04/anthem-properties-buys-chevron-gas-station-west-ge

[misher]

Originally Posted by memph

What's the evidence of the condos sitting empty? I'm sure there is a good amount of foreign owned housing, but that doesn't mean they're empty. They could be rented out, or maybe they have their children living in it while studying at UBC/SFU, or the spouse or parents living in it.

There is no evidence. Vacancy rates in Vancouver are around 1-2% for rental and owned homes.

Btw I'm surprised no one has noticed that each federal party is going to boom housing. Development and land prices are going to skyrocket no matter who gets in. Funnily enough, the Conservatives and NDP are both focusing on supply and offering 30 year mortgages.

https://biv.com/article/2019/10/political-parade-pre-election-promises

HOUSING

Liberal

•Keep the new first-time homebuyer incentive, which gives people up to 10% off the purchase price of their first home

•Increase the qualifying value for that incentive to nearly $800,000 in the places where houses cost more

•Create a national tax on vacant residential properties owned by non-Canadians who don’t live in Canada

•Work with interested provinces, territories and communities to establish a national approach to beneficial ownership so that law enforcement and tax authorities have the tools necessary to crack down on financial crime in the real estate sector

•Build new, purpose-built, accessible and affordable housing units, with a full range of health, social and employment supports for veterans who need extra help



NDP

•Provide an additional $5 billion to fund new affordable housing

•Create 250,000 units of quality, affordable housing in the next five years and another 250,000 units in the following five years

•Establish “fast-start funds” to facilitate the construction of co-ops and social and non-profit housing

•Waive the federal portion of the GST/HST on the construction of new affordable rental units

•Reintroduce 30-year terms to CMHC insured mortgages on entry-level homes for first-time homebuyers.

•Double the Home Buyers’ Tax Credit to $1,500

•Resources to facilitate co-housing

•Implement a new foreign-buyer’s tax on the sale of homes to individuals who aren’t Canadian citizens or permanent residents



Conservative

•Change the mortgage stress test to ensure that first-time homebuyers aren’t unnecessarily prevented from getting mortgages, and work with Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions to remove the stress test from mortgage renewals to give homeowners more options

•Increase amortization periods on insured mortgages to 30 years for first-time homebuyers to lower monthly payments

•Launch an inquiry into money laundering in the real estate sector and work with industry partners to root out corrupt practices that inflate housing prices

•Make surplus federal real estate available for development to increase the supply of housing

[SpongeG]

Vancouver is back on top as development, housing strengthen

By Peter Mitham | October 17, 2019

Back on top

Vancouver is back on top as Canada’s key investment market, according to the 2020 Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute.

Toronto topped the charts last year, but strong prospects in terms of development and housing gave Vancouver the edge this year.

“Despite some headwinds, Vancouver re-emerged at the top of our survey this year for overall real estate prospects,” says the report, singling out the office and industrial sectors as “doing particularly well.” Solid job growth and an active tech sector mean good times for residents and landlords alike. Despite concerns around the cost of housing and efforts to cool demand, the report is bullish.

...

https://biv.com/article/2019/10/vancouve...CnpD-Uyb7e5g0IhYdYc6N6cBGX9uUWztZ9tG3FUk

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

Vancouver is back on top as development, housing strengthen

By Peter Mitham | October 17, 2019

Back on top

Vancouver is back on top as Canada’s key investment market, according to the 2020 Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute.

Toronto topped the charts last year, but strong prospects in terms of development and housing gave Vancouver the edge this year.

“Despite some headwinds, Vancouver re-emerged at the top of our survey this year for overall real estate prospects,” says the report, singling out the office and industrial sectors as “doing particularly well.” Solid job growth and an active tech sector mean good times for residents and landlords alike. Despite concerns around the cost of housing and efforts to cool demand, the report is bullish.

...

https://biv.com/article/2019/10/vancouve...CnpD-Uyb7e5g0IhYdYc6N6cBGX9uUWztZ9tG3FUk

A lot of this is commercial/office. I'm also concerned about how many of these new tech jobs powering that exist because there is an idiot in the White House who is driving foreign talent to Canada. What happens when someone with a brain gets elected POTUS? Will the jobs just flow south?

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

A lot of this is commercial/office. I'm also concerned about how many of these new tech jobs powring that exist because there is an idiot in the White House who is driving foreign talent to Canada. What happens when someone with a brain gets elected POTUS? Will the jobs just flow south?

Possibly. I think it’s unlikely though as most are just branch offices rather than HQs. Even if it’s slightly lower profit branch offices allow you to recruit talent to transfer over. What’s worrisome is WeWork’s financial situation as they are one of our biggest office space leasees and have pre leased a lot of space in upcoming buildings. What’s also worrisome is the rising Canadian dollar, the low dollar is probably the biggest reason people invest or do business here.

We definitely should be working to attract a lot more before the predicted recession hits, its unfortunate that it seems like all levels of government is ignoring this.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by misher

Possibly. I think it’s unlikely though as most are just branch offices rather than HQs. Even if it’s slightly lower profit branch offices allow you to recruit talent to transfer over. What’s worrisome is WeWork’s financial situation as they are one of our biggest office space leasees and have pre leased a lot of space in upcoming buildings. What’s also worrisome is the rising Canadian dollar, the low dollar is probably the biggest reason people invest or do business here.

We definitely should be working to attract a lot more before the predicted recession hits, its unfortunate that it seems like all levels of government is ignoring this.

Much of the branch plant tech boom in Canada is driven by easier immigration policies in Canada. Nonetheless, most of the jobs created are still going to locals. (maybe 20%-30% of your typical office is foreign talent).

I have no idea what the scene in Vancouver is like, but Ottawa at least has a sizeable number of growing local companies creating jobs. Shopify obviously being the star but quite a few others that are ramping up, like Klipfolio, Pythian, Solace, and Lixar. Many of them do the same thing, bringing in around quarter to a third of their new staff as skilled worker immigrants. Lixar has a branch office in Halifax that exists pretty much entirely to take advantage of the Nova Scotia provincial nominee program.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by misher

Possibly. I think it’s unlikely though as most are just branch offices rather than HQs. Even if it’s slightly lower profit branch offices allow you to recruit talent to transfer over. What’s worrisome is WeWork’s financial situation as they are one of our biggest office space leasees and have pre leased a lot of space in upcoming buildings. What’s also worrisome is the rising Canadian dollar, the low dollar is probably the biggest reason people invest or do business here.

We definitely should be working to attract a lot more before the predicted recession hits, its unfortunate that it seems like all levels of government is ignoring this.

That isn't how exchange rates work.

If our exchange rate is high, it's because lots of foreigners want to buy our stuff. If it's low, it's because fewer people want our stuff, it's the symptom, not the cause.

[whatnext]

The IMF says Toronto, Vancouver and Hamilton have housing prices that are up to 50% overvalued:

Canadian real estate prices are soaring, but only a few markets have detached from reality. The ones that have though, boy oh boy – have they ever detached. New numbers obtained from IMF staff, show the gap between prices and fundamentals. For the most part, Canadian real estate prices can be explained through access to easy credit. Hamilton, Toronto, and Vancouver are notable exceptions, and may be 50% overvalued...

...your real estate agent probably just appeared behind you in a puff of smoke – not unlike a magician. They’re probably whispering, “the price someone pays, is the price of a home.” Or even, “tight supply is why home prices are more expensive.” This is true – to an extent. However, the price is mostly influenced by the marginal buyer.

The marginal buyer is the small group of people that set the price for a market on the way up. In a market with scarce inventory, someone pays a premium to get a home today, making them a marginal buyer. These buyers aren’t rational, but they drive price all the way up to the peak. Since the market will use this as a comparable, it influences the whole market. I’ve touched on this in detail before, when explaining why money laundering distorts real estate prices. It’s the same thing, so I won’t spend too much time on it. However, the point is, the observed price is a relatively small number, projected to a whole market....

https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunc...-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/

[whatnext]

Yep

Big losers in Canadian election could be foreign real-estate speculators
New taxes for non-Canadian buyers supported by both Liberals and NDP

Geoff Zochodne
Updated: October 22, 2019

The biggest losers of Monday’s federal election may not be a political party, but foreign homebuyers and homeowners, who are facing the possibility of new taxes levied on them by a Liberal minority government supported by the New Democrats.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals vowed in their platform to “limit the housing speculation that can drive up home prices” with a national tax on vacant homes owned by non-Canadians who are not living in Canada. According to a backgrounder, the Liberals are aiming to charge an annual one-per-cent tax, modelling it on a similar measure already in place in British Columbia.

“In every decision we make as your government, we will always put this country and its people first,” Trudeau declared in his victory speech...

https://vancouversun.com/news/election-2...wcm/fc78c7ea-c90d-4dab-8a77-b4089a2ccc7d

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Yep

Big losers in Canadian election could be foreign real-estate speculators
New taxes for non-Canadian buyers supported by both Liberals and NDP

Geoff Zochodne
Updated: October 22, 2019

The biggest losers of Monday’s federal election may not be a political party, but foreign homebuyers and homeowners, who are facing the possibility of new taxes levied on them by a Liberal minority government supported by the New Democrats.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals vowed in their platform to “limit the housing speculation that can drive up home prices” with a national tax on vacant homes owned by non-Canadians who are not living in Canada. According to a backgrounder, the Liberals are aiming to charge an annual one-per-cent tax, modelling it on a similar measure already in place in British Columbia.

“In every decision we make as your government, we will always put this country and its people first,” Trudeau declared in his victory speech...

https://vancouversun.com/news/election-2...wcm/fc78c7ea-c90d-4dab-8a77-b4089a2ccc7d

Unlikely to happen given that a majority of our foreign owners are American plus a significant minority are British. A speculation tax is against NAFTA and Trump would ride the public backlash for all its worth. He’s just looking for an excuse to crap on Canada.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by misher

Unlikely to happen given that a majority of our foreign owners are American plus a significant minority are British. A speculation tax is against NAFTA and Trump would ride the public backlash for all its worth. He’s just looking for an excuse to crap on Canada.

Hahahahahahahaha

Wake me up when this baseless theory actually comes to pass. Even if we can't do US citizens because of NAFTA, that doesn't matter because that is not the main source of the problem.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Hahahahahahahaha

Wake me up when this baseless theory actually comes to pass. Even if we can't do US citizens because of NAFTA, that doesn't matter because that is not the main source of the problem.

Since we're already levying an empty homes tax in BC on Americans, NAFTA apparently doesn't have any bearing on the issue.

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Since we're already levying an empty homes tax in BC on Americans, NAFTA apparently doesn't have any bearing on the issue.

It’s in the courts. Takes years as you know.

This was a nice article about how stupid extreme rent control is

The problem with rent control is that is sends this message to investor and even prospective one-off condominium owners: Don’t invest here, because your returns will be limited by government decree.

This is not an ideological argument but an empirical reality. Rent control lessens supply and leads to a degradation of the existing the rental stock. The profit incentive to build new rentals is discouraged; the incentive to fix up existing rentals is non-existent, because recouping such reinvestment is unlikely.

This reality is why Gunnar Myrdal, a Nobel Prize winner active and instrumental in left-wing political parties in Sweden in the 20th century, pointed out that rent control was counter-productive policy. He argued that “Rent control has in certain western countries constituted, maybe, the worst example of poor planning by governments lacking courage and vision.”

The profit incentive to build new rentals is discouraged.
Another left-wing Swedish economist, Assar Lindbeck made the same point but more bluntly: “In many cases rent control appears to be the most efficient technique presently known to destroy a city—except for bombing it.”

Supporters of rent control often argue that developers may only build apartments that higher-income folk can afford, and don’t aim for the lower end of the housing market. That argument falls flat; what matters is increased supply. If some renter who now pays $1,500 for a basement suite decides she will pay $2,500 for a new, modern apartment, her move opens up the $1,500 unit. What’s needed is new supply. It doesn’t matter where it starts.

https://theorca.ca/resident-pod/how-to-make-british-columbia-more-affordable/

[SpongeG]

That's not true though. In our building they will jack the rent up every year the legal amount, and when someone moves out the unit will jump up in price, they don't keep it at what the previous tenant paid. That $1500 unit is going to be like $1700 now.

[misher]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

That's not true though. In our building they will jack the rent up every year the legal amount, and when someone moves out the unit will jump up in price, they don't keep it at what the previous tenant paid. That $1500 unit is going to be like $1700 now.

Yep but why would they build another building when there are so many regulations?