YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Perhaps they will change another route soon. Maybe PSP? Cannot be too long a flight to get it back to run one of the evening Hawaii flights.

Only HNL, OGG, PHX, as announced by AC:

https://www.aircanada.com/ca/en/aco/home...-operated-on-behalf-of-air-canada-4.html

[phesto]

Anyone flown on Omni? I just booked on a 762 to HNL. Just curious what to expect (good or bad).

[nname]

The entire TS wide-body (332) schedule out of YVR for next summer. So far all the rotations had been accounted for, except for possible 2x weekly AMS which I marked with "AMS??"

12....7
TS 960	YYZ-YVR	......7	332	13:15 - 15:25
TS 162	YVR-MAN	......7	332	17:25 - 10:25
TS 163	MAN-YVR	1......	332	12:05 - 13:35
TS 334	YVR-AMS	1......	332	15:25 - 10:05
TS 335	AMS-YVR	.2.....	332	11:45 - 12:30
TS 961	YVR-YYZ	.2.....	332	14:10 - 21:45

1234567
TS 346	YVR-MAN	.2.....	332	15:20 - 08:20
TS 347	MAN-YVR	..3....	332	10:20 - 11:45
TS 274	YVR-LGW	..3....	332	13:50 - 07:20
TS 275	LGW-YVR	...4...	332	10:10 - 12:00
 ---> AMS??
TS 345	AMS-YVR	....5..	332	13:20 - 14:05
TS 804	YVR-LGW	....5..	332	16:20 - 09:50
TS 805	LGW-YVR	.....6.	332	11:30 - 13:20
TS 284	YVR-MAN	.....6.	332	16:00 - 09:00
TS 285	MAN-YVR	......7	332	10:40 - 12:10
 ---> AMS??
TS 373	AMS-YVR	1......	332	10:35 - 11:30
TS 776	YVR-LGW	1......	332	13:30 - 06:55
TS 777	LGW-YVR	.2.....	332	09:45 - 11:35

So 1 plane will be here for an entire week, plus another one for 3 days. This is down from last summer, where there's 2 plane + 2 days.

Here is the narrow-body schedule (73H). All domestic trans-con flights uses a single flight number for next summer, but I split it so the flights can be arranged more easily:

1234567
TS 770	YUL-YVR	1234567	73H	19:45 - 22:30
TS 771	YVR-YUL	1234567	73H	10:15 - 18:15

1.345..
TS 930	YYZ-YVR	1.345..	73H	07:45 - 09:55
TS 931	YVR-YYZ	1.345..	73H	11:00 - 18:35
TS 932	YYZ-YVR	1.345..	73H	19:45 - 21:55
TS 933	YVR-YYZ	1.345..	73H	23:00 - 06:35

.2.....
TS 932	YYZ-YVR	.2.....	73H	19:45 - 21:55
TS 933	YVR-YYZ	.2.....	73H	23:00 - 06:35

......7
TS 930	YYZ-YVR	......7	73H	07:45 - 09:55
TS 931	YVR-YYZ	......7	73H	11:00 - 18:35

.23....
TS 930	YYZ-YVR	.2.....	73H	07:45 - 09:55
TS 118	YVR-PVR	.2.....	73H	11:00 - 17:50
TS 119	PVR-YVR	.2.....	73H	18:50 - 22:00
TS 948	YVR-YYC	..3....	73H	08:10 - 10:45
TS 863	YYC-YYZ	..3....	73H	12:00 - 17:50

...567
TS 862	YYZ-YYC	....5..	73H	19:40 - 21:55
TS 949	YYC-YVR	....5..	73H	23:00 - 23:35
TS 118	YVR-PVR	.....6.	73H	11:00 - 17:50
TS 119	PVR-YVR	.....6.	73H	18:50 - 22:00
TS 118	YVR-PVR	......7	73H	11:00 - 17:50
TS 119	PVR-YVR	......7	73H	18:50 - 22:00
TS 933	YVR-YYZ	......7	73H	23:00 - 06:35

1 plane will fly to YVR daily from YUL (and stay overnight here), while the rest seems to be based at YYZ. This is an increase from last summer.

The total will be

3x LGW (down from 7x)
3x MAN
3x AMS (up from 2x)
0x CDG (down from 3x)

12x YYZ (up from 9x ?)
7x YUL (up from 5x ?)
3x PVR (up from 1x)
1x YYC
0x CUN (down from 1x)

Seems like the airlines seems to be all cutting from the same destinations next summer (CDG, CUN)...

[vanlaw]

Turkish Airlines has confirmed IST-YVR flights. No schedule info yet

https://investor.turkishairlines.com/en/...res/detail/15-10-2019-public-disclosures

https://onemileatatime.com/turkish-airlines-vancouver/

[LeftCoaster]

Great news about Turkish, rumoured a long time glad to see it finally this close to happening (just waiting on it being bookable in the system before it's official IMO).

As for the rest of this thread over the last few weeks, woof. What a mess. Cuts everywhere, it's honestly worse than the oil crash in Calgary. WTF is going on? Every announcement is another cut or reduction.

At this point Air Transat should just pack up and leave, what a joke of a schedule. It's not even just pushing all intl flights through YYZ and YUL either, since domestic capacity is barely up, not even close to covering the international cuts. The sooner AC folds that airline the better.

Just to put these cuts all into perspective, YVR-London is down 22% peak season next year. And that's not some big looking drop because of a relatively small base, that's a 22% drop on Vancouver's biggest international route. How are those people going to get to London next year, of further afield? The economy in Vancouver is still expanding, the population is expanding faster than it has in the last decade, and flights are getting cut like we're in an economic collapse. It makes no sense. Let's hope that YVR-LHR 787 gets put on another YVR route and not based somewhere else because it's pretty ugly right now.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Great news about Turkish, rumoured a long time glad to see it finally this close to happening (just waiting on it being bookable in the system before it's official IMO).

As for the rest of this thread over the last few weeks, woof. What a mess. Cuts everywhere, it's honestly worse than the oil crash in Calgary. WTF is going on? Every announcement is another cut or reduction.

At this point Air Transat should just pack up and leave, what a joke of a schedule. It's not even just pushing all intl flights through YYZ and YUL either, since domestic capacity is barely up, not even close to covering the international cuts. The sooner AC folds that airline the better.

Just to put these cuts all into perspective, YVR-London is down 22% peak season next year. And that's not some big looking drop because of a relatively small base, that's a 22% drop on Vancouver's biggest international route. How are those people going to get to London next year, of further afield? The economy in Vancouver is still expanding, the population is expanding faster than it has in the last decade, and flights are getting cut like we're in an economic collapse. It makes no sense. Let's hope that YVR-LHR 787 gets put on another YVR route and not based somewhere else because it's pretty ugly right now.

I feel like TS is already collaborating with AC on S20 schedule. TS pulled CDG to give the route to AC, while keeping MAN and AMS to supplement AC's Europe service from YVR. LGW is kept as YVR-LON is a bigger pie that supports more than a daily flight, which cannot be said for YYC-LON, so TS pulled that route too. So far every route TS added from YUL are the one that are not already served by AC, and they have added nothing for YYZ this year since AC wanted to build a fortress hub there so TS would just build up YUL instead. I wouldn't be surprised that TS eventually add more leisure routes out of YVR to places such as BCN, ATH, or FCO, which AC most likely won't do on mainline. AC can always codeshare with TS once the merger is done. After all, AC almost finish free up the entire 7200-7499 block...

As for YVR-LON... word is that WS is phasing out the 767, so the route may upgauged to 789 next summer. WS had cancelled service from YEG and YWG, so maybe next summer they will run it daily from YVR...?

Maybe these airlines already know what each other's plan are, so they trim service beforehand to avoid overcapacity (and lower the yield )

[LeftCoaster]

Well TS pulled the route to give to AC, who then promptly cut capacity.

As for London, even if WS went daily with a 789 it would still be a 17% drop in capacity. I've never seen anything like that before, even Hong Kong, with everything going on there, isn't seeing capacity cuts like this.

I feel like it's just not adding up. I know the growth at it's past pace wouldn't continue forever, but 20% drops when the economy, both global and local, is doing well just doesn't make sense.

[thenoflyzone]

#1. You're underestimating the amount of people from YVR that are connecting in YYC to go to Europe. As WS builds up YYC-Europe, that will inevitably hurt YVR-Europe. You're already starting to see it.

#2 You're focusing on one particular route. The 22% drop is mainly due to AC cutting its second daily run to LHR. AC only went double daily on YVR-LHR in 2016. You're losing something you had for only 3 years. Not the end of the world. If AC feels that frame can be better utilized on a higher yielding route, they will switch things up. Doesn't mean that second daily flight to LHR wasn't profitable. It simply means they can use it on a "more" profitable route. I for one am interested to see what they will do with this idle LHR slot pair.

#3....and most importantly...... Look at where YVR-Europe was 10 years ago. Look at where it is now. That should tell you all you need to know. You now have AF to CDG, AC to CDG/ZRH/FRA, LH to MUC, soon TK to IST. Airlines or destinations you didn't have 10 years ago. YVR-Europe has matured well. As YVR lands deeper European destinations (as well as non stop to India) the need for more LHR or FRA flights diminishes, as people flying to these locations are also connecting further east as well. Let's not forget that VS tried LHR-YVR a few years back. It failed. More Canada to London is not always a winning formula.

This being said, dont underestimate the threat of WS and its buildup of YYC-Europe. It will inevitably eat into YVR-Europe non stop growth. YYC on its own cannot support all those European runs. WS knows this, and while you as a Vancouverite will try to avoid connections on your way to Europe, I can assure you the vast majority of Vancouverites dont mind a connection in order to save a few bucks.

[Gordon]

how were the yields on the YvR London flights in the Summer?

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Gordon

how were the yields on the YvR London flights in the Summer?

No one here knows that. The only people that do are sitting at AC HQ in Montreal.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

#1. You're underestimating the amount of people from YVR that are connecting in YYC to go to Europe. As WS builds up YYC-Europe, that will inevitably hurt YVR-Europe. You're already starting to see it.

#2 You're focusing on one particular route. The 22% drop is mainly due to AC cutting its second daily run to LHR. AC only went double daily on YVR-LHR in 2016. You're losing something you had for only 3 years. Not the end of the world. If AC feels that frame can be better utilized on a higher yielding route, they will switch things up. Doesn't mean that second daily flight to LHR wasn't profitable. It simply means they can use it on a "more" profitable route. I for one am interested to see what they will do with this idle LHR slot pair.

#3....and most importantly...... Look at where YVR-Europe was 10 years ago. Look at where it is now. That should tell you all you need to know. You now have AF to CDG, AC to CDG/ZRH/FRA, LH to MUC, soon TK to IST. Airlines or destinations you didn't have 10 years ago. YVR-Europe has matured well. As YVR lands deeper European destinations (as well as non stop to India) the need for more LHR or FRA flights diminishes, as people flying to these locations are also connecting further east as well. Let's not forget that VS tried LHR-YVR a few years back. It failed. More Canada to London is not always a winning formula.

This being said, dont underestimate the threat of WS and its buildup of YYC-Europe. It will inevitably eat into YVR-Europe non stop growth. YYC on its own cannot support all those European runs. WS knows this, and while you as a Vancouverite will try to avoid connections on your way to Europe, I can assure you the vast majority of Vancouverites dont mind a connection in order to save a few bucks.

Margins are already pretty slim on YVR-Europe. There's plenty of competition. I think YVR may be positioned better to server secondary hubs better, like Munich, Berlin, Stockholm, Warsaw... maybe Brussels? How about a direct YVR-LIS flight? Those are destinations perfectly suited to the 787 and not really doable from YYC. Problem of course is that YYZ already has them all.

YVR-IST is GREAT news and I suspect that will be a super popular flight. I was just in IST, and although I'm not a fan of their grand new monstrosity of an airport, it's an important connection hub that really opens up the world to YVR through 1-stop connections.

In my experience, people will do 1 connection, but the number of passengers willing to save money by doing two connections... is a LOT smaller.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Great news about Turkish, rumoured a long time glad to see it finally this close to happening (just waiting on it being bookable in the system before it's official IMO).

As for the rest of this thread over the last few weeks, woof. What a mess. Cuts everywhere, it's honestly worse than the oil crash in Calgary. WTF is going on? Every announcement is another cut or reduction.

At this point Air Transat should just pack up and leave, what a joke of a schedule. It's not even just pushing all intl flights through YYZ and YUL either, since domestic capacity is barely up, not even close to covering the international cuts. The sooner AC folds that airline the better.

Just to put these cuts all into perspective, YVR-London is down 22% peak season next year. And that's not some big looking drop because of a relatively small base, that's a 22% drop on Vancouver's biggest international route. How are those people going to get to London next year, of further afield? The economy in Vancouver is still expanding, the population is expanding faster than it has in the last decade, and flights are getting cut like we're in an economic collapse. It makes no sense. Let's hope that YVR-LHR 787 gets put on another YVR route and not based somewhere else because it's pretty ugly right now.

Well, the expanding population isn't coming from the UK. That said, UK tourism to BC is up about 5% so it's odd to see such deep cuts.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Gordon

how were the yields on the YvR London flights in the Summer?

Only the airline would know the data about yield, but the passengers traffic data is public.

August 2019
YVR-LGW 31,933 (-4.9%)
YVR-LHR 60,499 (-4.4%)
YVR-MAN 7,940 (-10.8%)

July 2019
YVR-LGW 31,665 (+2.4%)
YVR-LHR 57,114 (-3.4%)
YVR-MAN 8,611 (+11.7%)

Add in the cancellation of GLA (about 2000-3000 passengers), YVR-UK traffic seems to be slightly down overall. Overall Canada-UK traffic seems to be stagnant or down also, but that can be attributed to the MAX grounding that cancelled almost all routes from Atlantic Canada. YYC-LGW have a 36% gain due to WS operation though.

As for LF... that would need that spreadsheet with seat info....

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Only the airline would know the data about yield, but the passengers traffic data is public.

August 2019
YVR-LGW 31,933 (-4.9%)
YVR-LHR 60,499 (-4.4%)
YVR-MAN 7,940 (-10.8%)

July 2019
YVR-LGW 31,665 (+2.4%)
YVR-LHR 57,114 (-3.4%)
YVR-MAN 8,611 (+11.7%)

Add in the cancellation of GLA (about 2000-3000 passengers), YVR-UK traffic seems to be slightly down overall. Overall Canada-UK traffic seems to be stagnant or down also, but that can be attributed to the MAX grounding that cancelled almost all routes from Atlantic Canada. YYC-LGW have a 36% gain due to WS operation though.

As for LF... that would need that spreadsheet with seat info....

The LHR data can be directly attributed to the AC swap from the second daily 789 to 788.

MAN up and down that’s actually quite strange.

LGW same deal. Up one month down the next. From what I’ve seen and read some of the WS fares were so low that would have easily enticed some travellers to go one stop. But the yields on those flights must have tanked.

The overall drop is really just that change to the 788 and the loss of the weekly GLA.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

Margins are already pretty slim on YVR-Europe. There's plenty of competition. I think YVR may be positioned better to server secondary hubs better, like Munich, Berlin, Stockholm, Warsaw... maybe Brussels? How about a direct YVR-LIS flight? Those are destinations perfectly suited to the 787 and not really doable from YYC. Problem of course is that YYZ already has them all.

YVR-IST is GREAT news and I suspect that will be a super popular flight. I was just in IST, and although I'm not a fan of their grand new monstrosity of an airport, it's an important connection hub that really opens up the world to YVR through 1-stop connections.

In my experience, people will do 1 connection, but the number of passengers willing to save money by doing two connections... is a LOT smaller.

Istanbul is the best and biggest announcement for a long time! And I love the idea of flights from YVR to secondary hubs like Stockholm!
I just hope we don't lose one of our "Big Four" European year-round destinations: LHR, AMS, FRA, CDG, that's all. Is that a possibility due to WS at YYC? Thanks.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

The LHR data can be directly attributed to the AC swap from the second daily 789 to 788.

MAN up and down that’s actually quite strange.

Maybe it's due to how many trips it operates within the calendar month. For 3x weekly service, a month typically means 13-15 round-trips -- and that's already a 15% swing. It's likely that this July have more op days than last July, and thus this Aug have less compared to last August. The same may also apply, to a much lesser degree, to WS's LGW service, which is 6x weekly.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

#1. You're underestimating the amount of people from YVR that are connecting in YYC to go to Europe. As WS builds up YYC-Europe, that will inevitably hurt YVR-Europe. You're already starting to see it.

I think more than anything I'm overestimating AC's willingness to protect their Hub. Most airlines in the face of increased competition would actively compete, where as AC has cut capacity on the exact routes WS is trying to poach their business. WS adds CDG and LGW capacity, AC cuts CDG and LHR capacity at YVR. It's very strange that they would just hand over hard fought market share like that, definitely not how I imagined they would respond.

Not to mention the size of the drops are not commensurate. YVR lost nearly 1,900 seats in 10 days. That's almost half of Westjet's entire YYC widebody ops. Are we to believe 50% of travelers on WS's planes are YVR O&D?

Also, I'm very interested to see how WS makes this all work.

Their game plan is to poach low yield travelers from a larger O&D market to fill their brand new expensive planes from a smaller O&D market with a struggling economy to boot. And somehow it's working? It seems quite peculiar to me.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by nname

Only the airline would know the data about yield, but the passengers traffic data is public.

August 2019
YVR-LGW 31,933 (-4.9%)
YVR-LHR 60,499 (-4.4%)
YVR-MAN 7,940 (-10.8%)

July 2019
YVR-LGW 31,665 (+2.4%)
YVR-LHR 57,114 (-3.4%)
YVR-MAN 8,611 (+11.7%)

Add in the cancellation of GLA (about 2000-3000 passengers), YVR-UK traffic seems to be slightly down overall. Overall Canada-UK traffic seems to be stagnant or down also, but that can be attributed to the MAX grounding that cancelled almost all routes from Atlantic Canada. YYC-LGW have a 36% gain due to WS operation though.

As for LF... that would need that spreadsheet with seat info....

According to my (admittedly rudimentary) seat charts LF would be as follows:

London
July: 90.2%
Aug: 93.9%

Manchester
July: 93.9%
Aug: 86.6%

So not jam packed, but not bad, and certainly not the routes you'd expect to see a 20% cut on.

[casper]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well TS pulled the route to give to AC, who then promptly cut capacity.

As for London, even if WS went daily with a 789 it would still be a 17% drop in capacity. I've never seen anything like that before, even Hong Kong, with everything going on there, isn't seeing capacity cuts like this.

I feel like it's just not adding up. I know the growth at it's past pace wouldn't continue forever, but 20% drops when the economy, both global and local, is doing well just doesn't make sense.

The other factor is AT is removing older A310 from the fleet and replacing them with these new extended range A321 aircraft. I don't think these extended A321 can make it from Vancouver to Europe. Fewer longer range aircraft in the fleet means cuts somewhere.

[Johnny Aussie]

Hey nname TS just added the outbound YVR-AMS on days 4 and 7 so you can complete your TS European chart. Thursday departure at 1640 and Sundays at 1410. Total of 9 weekly - 3 each to LGW, MAN, AMS.