Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak

[whatnext]

A great Twitter feed if you want to keep track of the haircuts people are taking in Vancouver real estate:
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1

[cairnstone]

Cities need to go back to zoning rental area. If they want to improve and create rental they need to zone small areas that are close to transit as rental. And maintain this zones. But now they just demand a small portion to be rental.

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by whatnext

A great Twitter feed if you want to keep track of the haircuts people are taking in Vancouver real estate:
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1

Just poor investment deals most looked to be teardowns that had an overpriced reno

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

Just poor investment deals most looked to be teardowns that had an overpriced reno

Which is a huge part of what Vancouver's market had become. But there are also condo sales and newbuilds in there. Seems pretty representative.

[Changing City]

CMHC have published the September 2019 Housing starts data. Here's a table of the starts in the first 9 months of the year, and the same period in 2018. We know that some projects are stalled, and these numbers will almost certainly be down next year and maybe for longer, but for now that's not reflected in the data (yet). (As I can't seem to format a table, I've put the dates after the numbers)

City of Vancouver - 5,492 (2019) - 5,020 (2018)
Burnaby - 3,810 (2019) - 1,929 (2018)
University Endowment Lands - 629 (2019) - 5 (2018)
New Westminster - 138 (2019) - 184 (2018)
North Vancouver CY – 626 (2019) - 800 (2018)
North Vancouver DM - 592 (2019) - 1,172 (2018)
West Vancouver – 70 (2019) - 238 (2018)
Richmond - 2,012 (2019) - 1,801 (2018)
Delta – 634 (2019) - 499 (2018)
Surrey - 2,998 (2019) - 2,662 (2018)
White Rock – 384 (2019) - 220 (2018)
Langley City and Langley DM - 1,715 (2019) - 1,421 (2018)
Tri-Cities - 2,602 (2019) - 1,433 (2018)
Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows – 527 (2019) – 671 (2018)
TOTAL - 22,229 (2019) - 18,055 (2018)

[source CMHC]

[misher]

https://vancouversun.com/personal-financ...wcm/665afe32-c952-425e-b75b-121bfd7c5412

The wealthy are fleeing Hong Kong and bypassing the U.S. to come to Canada instead
Even before the protest movement began, the U.S. was losing lustre. In a December survey by Chinese University of Hong Kong, one-third of the city’s citizens said they’d consider leaving. Among them, the most popular destinations were Canada and Australia, with at least 18 per cent of respondents each, followed by Taiwan, at 11 per cent, and Singapore at 5 per cent. The U.S. was the top choice for 2.9 per cent.

Australia is a favourite for clients of John Hu, founder and principal consultant at John Hu Migration Consulting in Hong Kong. Advantages include a small time difference with China and mild climate. Canada is also popular, Hu said, especially for clients who want to follow family members who previously emigrated there.

Canada last year recorded its biggest influx of immigrants since 1913. Under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the country has aggressively wooed immigrants. Its Global Skills Strategy program, for example, offering temporary work permits to applicants in as little as two weeks, has lured about 40,000 workers and their family members over the past two years.

[SpongeG]

International students have powerful influence on real estate: data

Students from overseas spend $12,000 a year on housing in B.C., one of Canada's most popular educational destinations

By Western Investor | October 9, 2019

International students represent a powerful economic influence in Canada, according to data from the Canadian Bureau for International Education (CBIE), not the least of which is seen in the real estate sector.

In 2017, the latest numbers available, there were 494,525 international students in Canada, a 119 per cent increase compared to 2010 and a 20 per cent increase from a year earlier.

U.S. News and World Report ranked Canada the No. 1 country for education in the world in 2017, followed by the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia and the United States.

...

https://biv.com/article/2019/10/internat...8yd433cHIFSd8Cg2EWG1OUOmd54HefqxRh4KlvXw

[SpongeG]

City of Surrey aims to share in transit land lift values

Speculators bidding up land prices as city staff completes land-use plan along SkyTrain extension

By Frank O'Brien | October 9, 2019

A concept to ensure affordable housing along the new SkyTrain rapid transit extension in suburban Surrey has run into a major hurdle: spiralling residential land prices along the route.

The City of Surrey won’t have zoning and other planning complete for the 16.5-kilometre transit line until January 2020, and Phase 1 construction is not expected to start until 2021, but land speculators are already active along the transit corridor. The first phase of the SkyTrain will run from the King George station in central Surrey to 168 Street. The second phase will continue to Langley once funding is approved.

...

https://biv.com/article/2019/10/city-sur...udI1rLHloMcShx8aAlmFydv1PgZAt5y_OtAB7NI0

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

International students have powerful influence on real estate: data

Students from overseas spend $12,000 a year on housing in B.C., one of Canada's most popular educational destinations

By Western Investor | October 9, 2019

International students represent a powerful economic influence in Canada, according to data from the Canadian Bureau for International Education (CBIE), not the least of which is seen in the real estate sector.

In 2017, the latest numbers available, there were 494,525 international students in Canada, a 119 per cent increase compared to 2010 and a 20 per cent increase from a year earlier.

U.S. News and World Report ranked Canada the No. 1 country for education in the world in 2017, followed by the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia and the United States.

...

https://biv.com/article/2019/10/internat...8yd433cHIFSd8Cg2EWG1OUOmd54HefqxRh4KlvXw

This has a way bigger effect on housing than foreign owners.

[misher]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

This has a way bigger effect on housing than foreign owners.

On the rental market*

Foreign Owners invest and create rentals which actually helps affordability because affordability in Vancouver means rents are cheaper. Home prices have little effect on the average joe.

Students who just occupy rental vacancies hurt affordability because they create competition for rentals.

[Migrant_Coconut]

It's a bit more nuanced than that.

Foreign developers: the ones who actually invest in and create housing supply (e.g. Li Ka-shing). These should be welcomed.

Foreign owners: the ones who buy and flip said housing, adding no supply at all. These should be deterred; the average 40-something tai tai has never touched a construction contract in her life.

International students are mostly renters, yes, but also "owners." Had the unfortunate pleasure of going to school with more than a few black sheep and/or trust fund brats whose rich families exiled them to the West Side.

[misher]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

It's a bit more nuanced than that.

Foreign developers: the ones who actually invest in and create housing supply (e.g. Li Ka-shing). These should be welcomed.

Foreign owners: the ones who buy and flip said housing, adding no supply at all. These should be deterred; the average 40-something tai tai has never touched a construction contract in her life.

International students are mostly renters, yes, but also "owners." Had the unfortunate pleasure of going to school with more than a few black sheep and/or trust fund brats whose rich families exiled them to the West Side.

Foreign Owners add supply because they buy pre-sale contracts which pushes development. They also tend to rent out their places which adds a supply of rental. You could argue that a local buyer would live there instead, but using this unit as a rental helps affordability more than a local living in it. Plus again, foreign money pushes development. The supply of housing is variable, foreign buyers pushes us to build more. Its not as simple as a foreigner stealing a house from a local.

International students are mostly renters. Few buy. And btw most of my white Vancouver friends went to the University of Western Ontario to study. Spending their parents money partying it up in a university thats no better than UBC or SFU. I have no idea why white parents in the west side are so rich and generous.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by misher

Foreign Owners add supply because they buy pre-sale contracts which pushes development. They also tend to rent out their places which adds a supply of rental. You could argue that a local buyer would live there instead, but using this unit as a rental helps affordability more than a local living in it. Plus again, foreign money pushes development. The supply of housing is variable, foreign buyers pushes us to build more. Its not as simple as a foreigner stealing a house from a local.

International students are mostly renters. Few buy. And btw most of my white Vancouver friends went to the University of Western Ontario to study. Spending their parents money partying it up in a university thats no better than UBC or SFU. I have no idea why white parents in the west side are so rich and generous.

So long as they actually live there and stay there - most Vancouverites are fine with that scenario.

Not denying that it's a nouveau riche thing in general. I'm denying the idea that rich international students only flood rental markets.

[misher]

Source: https://www.iol.co.za/personal-finance/t...to-be-in-the-1-around-the-world-19166083

Also in other news.


https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/h...across-b-c-in-september-bcrea-1.23977412

[rofina]

Originally Posted by misher

Source: https://www.iol.co.za/personal-finance/t...to-be-in-the-1-around-the-world-19166083

Also in other news.


https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/h...across-b-c-in-september-bcrea-1.23977412

I think its becoming harder to deny that the sales rebound has some legs to it. Its sustained. Im not holding my breath for double digit price increases, but Im definitely not seeing the conditions for any more steep haircuts.

[WarrenC12]

"Long term average"? Surely that line should be sloped as we increase in population every year.

We haven't seen the bottom yet. Please take that to the bank.

[SpongeG]

Vancouver is back on top as development, housing strengthen

By Peter Mitham | October 17, 2019

Back on top

Vancouver is back on top as Canada’s key investment market, according to the 2020 Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute.

Toronto topped the charts last year, but strong prospects in terms of development and housing gave Vancouver the edge this year.

“Despite some headwinds, Vancouver re-emerged at the top of our survey this year for overall real estate prospects,” says the report, singling out the office and industrial sectors as “doing particularly well.” Solid job growth and an active tech sector mean good times for residents and landlords alike. Despite concerns around the cost of housing and efforts to cool demand, the report is bullish.

...

https://biv.com/article/2019/10/vancouve...CnpD-Uyb7e5g0IhYdYc6N6cBGX9uUWztZ9tG3FUk

[misher]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

Vancouver is back on top as development, housing strengthen

By Peter Mitham | October 17, 2019

Back on top

Vancouver is back on top as Canada’s key investment market, according to the 2020 Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute.

Toronto topped the charts last year, but strong prospects in terms of development and housing gave Vancouver the edge this year.

“Despite some headwinds, Vancouver re-emerged at the top of our survey this year for overall real estate prospects,” says the report, singling out the office and industrial sectors as “doing particularly well.” Solid job growth and an active tech sector mean good times for residents and landlords alike. Despite concerns around the cost of housing and efforts to cool demand, the report is bullish.

...

https://biv.com/article/2019/10/vancouve...CnpD-Uyb7e5g0IhYdYc6N6cBGX9uUWztZ9tG3FUk

Office and industrial is doing excellent. Residential isn't there yet but looks to be going there. On the balance of probabilities and given that each of the 3 party's housing platforms includes boosts to increase demand I'd suggest considering buying now if you were hoping prices would go lower.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

Vancouver is back on top as development, housing strengthen

By Peter Mitham | October 17, 2019

Back on top

Vancouver is back on top as Canada’s key investment market, according to the 2020 Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute.

Toronto topped the charts last year, but strong prospects in terms of development and housing gave Vancouver the edge this year.

“Despite some headwinds, Vancouver re-emerged at the top of our survey this year for overall real estate prospects,” says the report, singling out the office and industrial sectors as “doing particularly well.” Solid job growth and an active tech sector mean good times for residents and landlords alike. Despite concerns around the cost of housing and efforts to cool demand, the report is bullish.

...

https://biv.com/article/2019/10/vancouve...CnpD-Uyb7e5g0IhYdYc6N6cBGX9uUWztZ9tG3FUk

Originally Posted by rofina

I think its becoming harder to deny that the sales rebound has some legs to it. Its sustained. Im not holding my breath for double digit price increases, but Im definitely not seeing the conditions for any more steep haircuts.

Good news! For a while I was worried that newer developments in City centres would be severely curtailed due to the downturn. Should be able to see some actions with an improvement in the long-term outlook.

[whatnext]

So wrong:

$3.9M burnt-down house in Vancouver won't take long to sell, agent says

'The thing is location, location, location,' Hunt Tse says
CBC Radio · Posted: Aug 23, 2018 4:59 PM ET | Last Updated: August 23, 2018

Vancouver real estate agent Hunt Tse is not worried that the $3.9-million lot with a burnt-down home on it will sell, even though he describes it as a "pile of rubbish."

"I don't think it would take that long because it's a good location," Tse told CBC Radio's As It Happens guest host Helen Mann, about the lot in Vancouver's popular Kitsilano neighbourhood.

Most of the home is collapsed from a long ago fire and the 6,000-square-foot lot is overgrown with grass.

Nevertheless, the house is listed for $3,990,000.

Tse said that the property is under foreclosure and has been seized by the bank, and nothing has been done to remove the rubble. That will be left for future owners to negotiate....
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-...t-take-long-to-sell-agent-says-1.4796303

Seems like Mr. Tse should haven't been so cocksure after all. Just sold over a year later for $2.66 million (still ridiculous, the greater fool theory at work).