YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Correct as intl capacity is down around that range. Seems to be a good result of better LF perhaps. Maintaining the meteoric rise over the last decade is a good sign even with slight downturn and it’s a fact the MAX has had an impact.

A few more routes from Australia to China also being dropped.

My rough calcs were showing intl seats per week down 2.0%. The surprise for me is that Asia-Pac was showing the biggest drop in capacity at over 6.5% but it was flat. There must have been some quiet planes that are flying a bit fuller this year.

LatAM seats were up 9.7% with misc capacity down 14.3 so that's a bit concerning. May have seen the endless frames AeroMexico was adding to YVR finally slow down.

Transborder I've been expecting to rise so that one makes sense to me, although I was expecting a bigger boost. No doubt the Max had an effect here since US tourism numbers are way up.

Originally Posted by nname

TBH, I think we would see YVR-DEL goes to 77W and YYZ-BOM goes back to year-round before we'll see YVR-BOM...

Yep, that said I would still not be surprised to see a BOM flight one day. If India keeps growing the way it has been its connections to NA will continue to grow, and it won't all be VFA like today.

Originally Posted by SpongeG

“We are expecting a couple of new ones,” he said. “I cant tell you exactly what they are – possibly inter-continental. We would have more new routes within the U.S., I think, if it weren’t for the 737-Max issue.”

I'm of two minds on this. On one hand Vancouver keeps growing like stink and leading the country in economic growth rates. On the other hand if the economy slows down next year it looks like we could get hosed out of a good year of growth.

I don't buy the whole it was growing too fast nonsense, if you average YVRs growth over the past 20 years it's barely beating inflation. The last few years were only making up for losses after 2001 and 2008.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

LatAM seats were up 9.7% with misc capacity down 14.3 so that's a bit concerning. May have seen the endless frames AeroMexico was adding to YVR finally slow down.

I'm surprised the LatAM seat actually goes up... WS pulled it's daily MEX flight, and 4O did not have additional summer flights to MEX and CUN this year, offset by AM adding a few extra flights per week. With all others stay pretty much the same, the capacity should drop?

[LeftCoaster]

Ahh damn, I had removed it in my 2018 sheet. My bad. Drop makes sense now.

[Gordon]

Ho is the construction on the Remote Stands that were going to take part of the Jet set parkig area going?

[nname]

Effective Oct 29, 3U will convert YVR-CGO-CTU into non-stop YVR-CTU. There will no longer be direct service between YVR and CGO.

Also, departure and arrival at YVR will move to nighttime slot. Seems like the nighttime international bank is quickly catching up the noon departure bank. If there is no new or increased service, seems there will be 3-4 spare gates at D/E pier next summer at both the noon and midnight bank.

3U8501 CTU2355 - 2015YVR 330* 25
3U8502 YVR2215 - 0400+2CTU 330* 25

* = probably pending equipment change to 359... does 330 even have the range?

YVR-SHE-CTU remain unchanged 1x weekly service.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

... does 330 even have the range?

An A332, yes. An A333, no.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Effective Oct 29, 3U will convert YVR-CGO-CTU into non-stop YVR-CTU. There will no longer be direct service between YVR and CGO.

Also, departure and arrival at YVR will move to nighttime slot. Seems like the nighttime international bank is quickly catching up the noon departure bank. If there is no new or increased service, seems there will be 3-4 spare gates at D/E pier next summer at both the noon and midnight bank.

3U8501 CTU2355 - 2015YVR 330* 25
3U8502 YVR2215 - 0400+2CTU 330* 25

* = probably pending equipment change to 359... does 330 even have the range?

YVR-SHE-CTU remain unchanged 1x weekly service.

Maybe YVR won’t have to use remote stands then. Always good to have a little spare capacity and not maxed out all the time if managed properly. Most likely will become a 359 as 332s continue to get phased out. Consistent with mainland Chinese carriers making changes with very little notice sometimes.

MEL is also losing direct CGO service the end of November.

[thenoflyzone]

Thomas Cook Group just went belly up......

Condor is a part of Thomas Cook Group. They are still operating, but applied to the German Government for some much needed cash. Let's see what happens.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ge...093244564.html

Condor's operations in Canada include service to YXY, YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYZ.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Thomas Cook Group just went belly up......

Condor is a part of Thomas Cook Group. They are still operating, but applied to the German Government for some much needed cash. Let's see what happens.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ge...093244564.html

Condor's operations in Canada include service to YXY, YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYZ.

Reading the article, especially about the now-jobless Condor employees leaving in tears suggests that this is in fact the end of Condor. A shame.
Nevertheless, if they do go out, and stay out of the market, would any airline offer flights from Germany, stepping in to Condor's place?
Would love to see Frankfurt, Munich, maybe Zurich year- round (even with reduced winter frequencies, of course), although it's doubtless a few years before YVR sees that.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Thomas Cook Group just went belly up......

Condor is a part of Thomas Cook Group. They are still operating, but applied to the German Government for some much needed cash. Let's see what happens.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ge...093244564.html

Condor's operations in Canada include service to YXY, YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYZ.

And now one can clearly see why Transat was wise to sell-up while they still could. The package holiday business model is fading.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And now one can clearly see why Transat was wise to sell-up while they still could. The package holiday business model is fading.

That might be the case in Europe, but not quite so in North America, and even less in Canada.

TS wasn't doing as bad as Thomas Cook was. Also, Sunwing seems to be doing just fine.

Over in Europe, what is killing the package holiday business is the likes of Ryanair and EasyJet, which fly from every nook and cranny to every other nook and cranny, for under 100 Euros. You don't have that here. If you want to go from Vancouver to Varadero, there is only 1 airline offering non stop service. Over in Europe, half a dozen airlines step over each other on the same leisure routes, with dirt cheap fares. Thomas Cook simply couldn't compete.

I firmly believe TS was on the right path, with their A321 purchase (fleet commonality with the A330), and the phasing out the old A310s, they would have reduced their operating costs and could have turned things around. We shall never know.

[nname]

YVR Long-Haul change for S20:

HKG - 789 replaces 77W.
PEK - 789 replaces 77L.
KIX - 5x weekly 788/789 June-July, increase to 6x weekly starting August. One of the weekly flight operates with 789.
ZRH - 5x weekly 788/789, one of the weekly fight operate with 788 instead of 789.
CDG - Reduce to 3x weekly, 333 replaces 788. This 333 will alternate between CDG and DUB out of YVR.
FRA - 77W replaces 789.
LHR - 1x daily flight change to 77W, the other remains 788.

So currently

TPE (234567) and MEL still shares 3x 789
DUB (1357) and CDG (246) shares a 333
KIX (3) and ZRH (1567) shares a 789 with 2x weekly left (24)
KIX (12567) and ZRH (3) shares a 788 with 1x weekly left (4)

So where will they put those extra planes on Tuesday and Thursdays?

[connect2source]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Thomas Cook Group just went belly up......

Condor is a part of Thomas Cook Group. They are still operating, but applied to the German Government for some much needed cash. Let's see what happens.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ge...093244564.html

Condor's operations in Canada include service to YXY, YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYZ.

Was just about to book a Condor flight FRA-YVR late Oct but after the news I've changed my plans. Even though they're still operational I have my concerns about Condor due to their request for the loan.

Last year I witnessed the collapse of Primeria while waiting for my WOW flight STN-KEF, ironically WOW is gone now too.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by nname

YVR Long-Haul change for S20:

HKG - 789 replaces 77W.
PEK - 789 replaces 77L.
KIX - 5x weekly 788/789 June-July, increase to 6x weekly starting August. One of the weekly flight operates with 789.
ZRH - 5x weekly 788/789, one of the weekly fight operate with 788 instead of 789.
CDG - Reduce to 3x weekly, 333 replaces 788. This 333 will alternate between CDG and DUB out of YVR.
FRA - 77W replaces 789.
LHR - 1x daily flight change to 77W, the other remains 788.

So currently

TPE (234567) and MEL still shares 3x 789
DUB (1357) and CDG (246) shares a 333
KIX (3) and ZRH (1567) shares a 789 with 2x weekly left (24)
KIX (12567) and ZRH (3) shares a 788 with 1x weekly left (4)

So where will they put those extra planes on Tuesday and Thursdays?

Looks like AC is planning on Condor not making it with that big upgrade to FRA. All in all a good increase of roughly 4.5%.

Interesting that an A333 will run both CDG and DUB. I doubt it's being based at YVR, as there is no pilot base here, but that would mean another A330 transcon to YYZ or YUL.

Long term if AC decides to keep the 330s around for a while I wouldn't be surprised to see them set up a base here to run some trans atlantic service from YVR.

With the AC increases I'm actually showing an increase in long haul seats if Hong Kong Airlines, Interjet and Condor all live through next summer. That's a mighty big if though.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Looks like AC is planning on Condor not making it with that big upgrade to FRA. All in all a good increase of roughly 4.5%.

Most likely it's planned long ago, and was already changed in their internal system sometimes last week before the bankruptcy news was first revealed sometimes over the weekend. I do think Condor will survive though, the loan had been approved by the government of Germany. The same cannot be said for the other two...

I'm more interested that, with the increases, I wonder which will be the next route to go year-round... FRA (AC), KIX, or ZRH... or maybe the MUC from LH will become year-round also?

As for CDG, doesn't seems like it's performing too well. Maybe AC will transfer the frequencies to TS once the merger is completed?

[Rogie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Long term if AC decides to keep the 330s around for a while I wouldn't be surprised to see them set up a base here to run some trans atlantic service from YVR.

AC executives have said repeatedly on investor conference calls that they like the 330 and plan to keep them in the fleet. So what you're suggesting is possible.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Rogie

AC executives have said repeatedly on investor conference calls that they like the 330 and plan to keep them in the fleet. So what you're suggesting is possible.

They like them enough that they are buying more of them. They recently picked up some of the A330 that TAP Air Portugal was replacing with newer aircraft.

I think the preference is to fly them to-from Europe. There range is limited going to Asia. That said, I was on an A330 a few years ago from YVR to Narita. At the time it was great aircraft to upgrade on. Lots of seats in J.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by nname

/please excuse the edit/....
I'm more interested that, with the increases, I wonder which will be the next route to go year-round... FRA (AC), KIX, or ZRH... or maybe the MUC from LH will become year-round also?

As for CDG, doesn't seems like it's performing too well. Maybe AC will transfer the frequencies to TS once the merger is completed?

Personally speaking, I would very much like year-round FRA and MUC on LH. It would be a step up in the maturing of YVR's European network.
As of next summer, with AC, CDG total is 8/week in the summer but only 3/week in winter. Could AC handle 2/week in winter to CDG for 5/week? (with AF, of course). Is the market there?
And if ZRH coud be made year-round, with even only 3/week in winter, we'd have Europe licked .... especially if that 3/week TK to IST happens,
although Seattle will probably get TK (offering 5/week slots, compared to only 3 at YVR). That is a real shame.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Most likely it's planned long ago, and was already changed in their internal system sometimes last week before the bankruptcy news was first revealed sometimes over the weekend. I do think Condor will survive though, the loan had been approved by the government of Germany. The same cannot be said for the other two...

I'm more interested that, with the increases, I wonder which will be the next route to go year-round... FRA (AC), KIX, or ZRH... or maybe the MUC from LH will become year-round also?

As for CDG, doesn't seems like it's performing too well. Maybe AC will transfer the frequencies to TS once the merger is completed?

Definitely a shift in capacity to Europe. I also think AC’s decision to put 77W’s on FRA is independent of anything happening with DE.

FRA has gone from 788->789->77W Since it started.

AC YVR-CDG is effectively competing with AF, TS and now WS via YYC.
If it were doing “well” they certainly wouldn’t be reducing it while all other routes are actually adding capacity. 11 flights per week between the three carriers to CDG is still a lot of seats.

[Hourglass]

Interesting article on flightglobal.com: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/changi-eyes-nonstops-to-vancouver-and-chicago-461012/

I find it interesting that Changi seems to be lobbying specifically for SIN-YVR.