DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[CherryCreek]

Interesting plans for the 18 story building near Belleview and I25 (right next to the Western Union headquarters building).


Although earlier the word was that it would simply be a hotel. Businessden is reporting that it would mostly be office, but would also include a hotel, with lots of ground floor retail:

The plans show the building would have retail, restaurant and lobby space on the ground floor, and amenities, including a pool, conference room and fitness area on the second floor. Above that would be five floors of hotel rooms, approximately 236 rooms in all, topped by 11 stories of office space.

In all, 355,419 square feet would be devoted to office use, compared to 145,651 square feet of hotel rooms. There would be three levels of underground parking.

https://businessden.com/2019/09/09/hotel...on-plans-involve-more-office-than-rooms/

The Belleview station TOD is really looking solid!

[Denvergotback]

Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see a lot of these developments be packed into 3 or 4 40+ story buildings in the CBD, but holy crap I am loving the addition of RiNo (and Alameda area) it may not be the most spectacular buildings but every time I drive down i70 and up onto the i25 corridor, it just making Denver’s urban scape seem massive (for a city its size) I can’t wait until it’s mostly filled in all of their gaps and really contribute to an endless urban canyon

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Of course, if it passes everywhere then its easy to see a scenario where local governments simply go along with it, given the voter preferences.

Even with Denver's new 'commie council' I can't see the big D just sitting back and taking this on it's heels. Denver will fight this tooth and nail via home rule - it's the municipality with the most to lose from 1% growth, which would essentially limit Denver to roughly 1,300 building permits a year (not projects, but housing units). Remember, this only applies to housing, nothing else. The initiative would be catastrophic to all of Denver's economic development and long term business outlooks.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Interesting plans for the 18 story building near Belleview and I25 (right next to the Western Union headquarters building).

So just over 500,000 SF; definitely another Big add to the DTC - Belleview Station.

Hot Topic
Mayor Hancock is warning about the meager two percent growth in the proposed 2020 General Fund due to slowing construction, slower auto sales and consumer goods purchases in general. This year's $1.49 billion General Fund proposal compares to last years $1.46 billion proposal.

In addition to basic needs like more firefighters and police officers the city is still adding to the growing bureaucracy with yet more new agencies with new personal - largely to accommodate the many various special interests. I assume that the great majority of proposed spending was already promised via previous 'releases' and plans.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Even with Denver's new 'commie council' I can't see the big D just sitting back and taking this on it's heels. Denver will fight this tooth and nail via home rule - it's the municipality with the most to lose from 1% growth, which would essentially limit Denver to roughly 1,300 building permits a year (not projects, but housing units). Remember, this only applies to housing, nothing else. The initiative would be catastrophic to all of Denver's economic development and long term business outlooks.

I don't even understand how this works. Does 1% refer to population meaning with Denver's over 700,000 peeps they'd be allowed to grow over 7,000 new residents per year. If it's based on the current number of permits issues then again that seems relatively harmless in Denver's case with all the current permitting.

Because Denver (County) is largely built out compared to other counties this doesn't seem all that threatening over the near term. Supposedly it couldn't be changed until 2023. BUT there's more than enough already in Denver's pipeline assuming the many projects that could break ground before this even goes into effect that at least in the near term I see little impact on Denver.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Interesting plans for the 18 story building near Belleview and I25 (right next to the Western Union headquarters building).


Although earlier the word was that it would simply be a hotel. Businessden is reporting that it would mostly be office, but would also include a hotel, with lots of ground floor retail:

The plans show the building would have retail, restaurant and lobby space on the ground floor, and amenities, including a pool, conference room and fitness area on the second floor. Above that would be five floors of hotel rooms, approximately 236 rooms in all, topped by 11 stories of office space.

In all, 355,419 square feet would be devoted to office use, compared to 145,651 square feet of hotel rooms. There would be three levels of underground parking.

https://businessden.com/2019/09/09/hotel...on-plans-involve-more-office-than-rooms/

The Belleview station TOD is really looking solid!

I drive through there every day and love what's going on. The new buildings just keep coming!

I work in Lone Tree and looking north from our building, there is a very solid "tech center" (and surrounding area) skyline view, with downtown off in the distance behind it. You can take a pretty good picture with two skylines and a mountain backdrop.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by COtoOC

I drive through there every day and love what's going on. The new buildings just keep coming!

I work in Lone Tree and looking north from our building, there is a very solid "tech center" (and surrounding area) skyline view, with downtown off in the distance behind it. You can take a pretty good picture with two skylines and a mountain backdrop.

If it all gets built, it can become the "downtown" of the tech center, with multiple mid rise offices (up to 20 stories), hotels, restaurants, retail, and residences within easy walking distance, just a few blocks of each of each and of light rail. It will be an added irony that the first truly urban part of the Tech Center gets built on the Denver side of the border.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

If it all gets built, it can become the "downtown" of the tech center, with multiple mid rise offices (up to 20 stories), hotels, restaurants, retail, and residences within easy walking distance, just a few blocks of each of each and of light rail. It will be an added irony that the first truly urban part of the Tech Center gets built on the Denver side of the border.

I don't know it still doesn't feel "urban" even with all of the added density because it's an island sandwiched between Belleview, I-25, garden-style apartments to the north and huge lot mega-mansions to the west. It reminds me of the high density commercial developments that line the highways in Dallas and Houston. Too bad a lot of these projects planned for Belleview Station aren't happening in more connected TOD's like I-25/Broadway or Colorado Station.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by BG918

I don't know it still doesn't feel "urban" even with all of the added density because it's an island sandwiched between Belleview, I-25, garden-style apartments to the north and huge lot mega-mansions to the west. It reminds me of the high density commercial developments that line the highways in Dallas and Houston. Too bad a lot of these projects planned for Belleview Station aren't happening in more connected TOD's like I-25/Broadway or Colorado Station.

I don't disagree. I wish the residential stuff built around Belleview Station was more dense (like 10 to 20 story stuff) instead of the 3 to 4 story stuff that's there. Somewhat of a lost opportunity.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

If it all gets built, it can become the "downtown" of the tech center, with multiple mid rise offices (up to 20 stories), hotels, restaurants, retail, and residences within easy walking distance, just a few blocks of each of each and of light rail. It will be an added irony that the first truly urban part of the Tech Center gets built on the Denver side of the border.

Well, it's denser that some other suburban office parks I've seen. Is there a height limit? The obviously tallest down by Arapahoe looks like its a little over 20 stories.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by BG918

I don't know it still doesn't feel "urban" even with all of the added density because it's an island sandwiched between Belleview, I-25, garden-style apartments to the north and huge lot mega-mansions to the west. It reminds me of the high density commercial developments that line the highways in Dallas and Houston. Too bad a lot of these projects planned for Belleview Station aren't happening in more connected TOD's like I-25/Broadway or Colorado Station.

It's all about the history of DTC.

Going back to the 1980's thru the early 2000's that corner wasn't even considered the tech center and wasn't desirable. The good news is that along came light rail and the Belleview Station. That slice of land was generally a blank slate; there was a driving range and some mish-mash so it was at least ripe for TOD to occur.

I believe Monoco is the Denver boundary line and to the west is Cherry Hills Village. Back then the notion of mixed-use was not a part of the vernacular. All that open land to the north was held by the Koelbel family awaiting development demand. Given the times that land was viewed as modest density for generally upscale residential. If one could turn back the clock it's amazing the potential for that area with today's vision of mixed-use, mixed density development.

[TakeFive]

Now I know
cuz I seen it with me own eyes.

They're building all those McGregor Square buildings at the same time.
I know, much thanks to RyanD's great photo work at DenverInfill.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

BUT there's more than enough already in Denver's pipeline assuming the many projects that could break ground before this even goes into effect that at least in the near term I see little impact on Denver.

What would lead you to believe there is already enough in Denver's pipeline? Are vacancies heading up fast and rents are coming down? Is for-sale inventory spiking and home prices decreasing? How, precisely, is Denver's pipeline currently keeping up with demand when our rental and for-sale housing markets remain unbalanced? By the way, you may have seen Hancock's remarks on the slowing development fees the City is collecting...our pipeline is already slowing down substantially.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by COtoOC

Well, it's denser that some other suburban office parks I've seen. Is there a height limit? The obviously tallest down by Arapahoe looks like its a little over 20 stories.

Pretty sure that on the east side of I-25 (north of Belleview) the zoning was the same as the downtown core or B-8. Chances are it's the same over there.

Originally Posted by laniroj

What would lead you to believe there is already enough in Denver's pipeline? Are vacancies heading up fast and rents are coming down?

Sign of the Times

Enjoy newly reduced pricing + 6 weeks of rent-free living + waived fees!


Courtesy Mill Creek Res/Modera Cap Hill

[Ich]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Pretty sure that on the east side of I-25 (north of Belleview) the zoning was the same as the downtown core or B-8. Chances are it's the same over there.




Sign of the Times

Enjoy newly reduced pricing + 6 weeks of rent-free living + waived fees!


Courtesy Mill Creek Res/Modera Cap Hill

That’s a bad example to prove your point. I looked at that place and the rent they were originally asking for was comparable to what they are asking in Union Station/ Riverfront but not as nice area. Last I heard at my place, Alexan 20th Street Station, has leased 40% of available units (upper floors are still being finished) which isn’t bad considering it’s only been open for a little under two months.

[TakeFive]

Oh Oh

Originally Posted by Ich

That’s a bad example to prove your point. I looked at that place and the rent they were originally asking for was comparable to what they are asking in Union Station/ Riverfront but not as nice area. Last I heard at my place, Alexan 20th Street Station, has leased 40% of available units (upper floors are still being finished) which isn’t bad considering it’s only been open for a little under two months.

Source

Actually my primary point went to a pipeline of projects that won't even be completed for another 2 to 3+ years depending on when they actually break ground prior to end of next year. There's a couple of 700-unit projects, 3 towers in AS, a bunch of mid-rise proposals in RiNo and near 38th and Blake, Golden Triangle, units proposed at Evans/I-25, along West Colfax near Sloan's, at Mile High stadium, in Cherry Creek etc.

That was interesting feedback though and I did wonder if maybe Modera Cap Hill started with too high of expectations.

[TakeFive]

Applying some common sense to statistics

DBJ has a piece ranking cities by number of apartment units expected to deliver in 2019 based on data from RentCafé. Denver is ranked ahead of Portland, Minneapolis, Tampa, San Francisco, Boston, Charlotte, San Jose and Orlando at No. 12 just behind Chicago.

Obviously, these numbers can bounce around from year to year. In fact, last year Denver delivered 15,187 new units while in 2019 RentCafe is estimating 6,836 new apartment units. What if we averaged both years together? Let's see where 11,000 new units would place Denver this year.

In addition to the above named cities at 11,000 units Denver would also rank higher than Chicago, Houston, D.C., Phoenix, Los Angeles, Atlanta and Austin at No. 5 behind only Miami, NYC, Seattle and Dallas-Fort Worth.

I would also suggest that much of the disparity from 2018 to 2019 is much fewer units being delivered from the suburbs.

[twister244]

I guess the question is, if development fees being collected by the city are down, and it's a trend, why?

Is this part of a macro trend pointing towards a slowdown in the overall economy? Or, is this simply the pace of development in Denver leveling off? In my neighborhood (Jefferson Park), I really haven't seen a noticeable slowdown in new housing construction. There are multiple projects that are either beginning construction, or have just begun, and a few others in various stages of construction. If you compare to a couple years ago, then yeah I could see how the numbers suggest a slowdown, but hard to say what exactly is driving all of it.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by Ich

That’s a bad example to prove your point. I looked at that place and the rent they were originally asking for was comparable to what they are asking in Union Station/ Riverfront but not as nice area. Last I heard at my place, Alexan 20th Street Station, has leased 40% of available units (upper floors are still being finished) which isn’t bad considering it’s only been open for a little under two months.

Capitol Hill has had a very small share of the growth that has driven the Denver boom over the past 8 years. The original great Denver urban neighborhood has not really boomed during one of the greatest urban booms in the City's history. In part, perhaps it's because of all the "land farmers", owning open parcels in Capitol Hill who are happy to hold onto their parking lots for generations, rather than sell to developers. Looking at the silver lining, the undeveloped parts of Cap Hill remain a "land bank" from which future urban development can draw.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

I recently talked to my neighbor who is an "ibuyer" for Redfin. Mostly small talk but I told him that I flip houses and if he has anything that doesn't fit his bill send to me etc etc. Long story short their margin is so tight, so tight, like their target annualized ROI is like 3-5%. Absolutely insane when you think that its a declining market.

For the big big guys, is 5% annualized return acceptable? Probably