DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[bushw00d]

Originally Posted by Matt

Even more dangerous is the narrative that Geller's comments set moving forward.

If you think Buzz Geller's comments to local press are setting any sort of narrative with the people who spec, design, fund, and construct these buildings, I don't really know what to tell you.

We don't get big tall buildings here because users won't pay the premiums required to build them. It's not complicated.

[mhays]

A company with a $100b market cap seems unlikely to build or lease a supertall building. Public companies generally don't go for vanity projects.

Philly's and San Francisco's new HQ towers follow these rules...supertalls make sense on spreadsheets in those places, when tenants place huge value in being in the absolute core districts, right next to transit. They can also do very low parking ratios...the latest Comcast tower has 77 spaces for I'd guess 7,500 workers.

Less parking avoids a big cost for any job, but this is more important with a bigger tower...either you need more land for parking on the side, or you have a huge amount of tower structure, transportation, etc. competing for space in your garage, particularly if the garage is above-grade.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

"That area is just really up and coming and turning over," Bildstein said. "It’s kind of like a mini RiNo."
The reference presumably refers to the current industrial flavor.

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/...ust-22.html?iana=hpmvp_den_news_headline

This potential TOD area has taken some time but by golly it's seems to be gathering steam. This will be across the street from a 200-unit Greystar project the Encore Evans Station apartments.

A block to the south an eight-story apartment building has already been approved called Cherokee Flats by LCP Development.

I was just down in this area and wow there is a lot of new development going on that flies under the radar. That whole area is quickly developing into multiple TOD clusters with Alameda Station on the north end where Price Development is currently building a 5 story, 341 unit apartment building. There is a 377 unit apartment building proposed for the lot just to the east at Alameda & Bannock. And then all of the current and future development on the Gates Factory site at I-25/Broadway and down to Evans Station.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

The economics driving an 80-story building are pretty tough.

It needs very high rents or sale prices per square foot -- for a lot of space all at once. Denver has plenty of land for cheaper buildings, which often have a similar view and good locations.

It also takes much longer to build, with more uncertainty before it starts. An unlike the early 80s, a condo or office would generally need to prelease or presell. Presales and three-year lead times don't go well together.

My city hasn't gotten one either.

Your city like our city got its tallest during the 1980's from the iconic Columbia Tower at 76 stories to the Seattle Municipal Tower at 62 stories and two others at 55 and 56 stories. That's the same period when Denver got it's three tallest at 56, 53 and 52 stories. Who knows, had the oil boom not gone bust maybe Denver would have built an even taller building.

In contemporary times and another peer city, Austin has gotten some aggressive and impressive buildings. Their two tallest at 58 and 56 stories are both condo projects.

Amacon has built a few 40 to 50-story condo towers in the Toronto area but the proposed 38 and 32-story condo towers in Denver are very comparable to what they've built in Vancouver.

Someday, special circumstances could well see a new tallest in Denver maybe 60 to 65 stories which would be cool enough.

[mhays]

In the oil boom, it was also the days of big towers built on spec thanks to the lax standards that gave us the S&L crisis. It was much easier then.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by BG918

I was just down in this area and wow there is a lot of new development going on that flies under the radar. That whole area is quickly developing into multiple TOD clusters with Alameda Station on the north end where Price Development is currently building a 5 story, 341 unit apartment building. There is a 377 unit apartment building proposed for the lot just to the east at Alameda & Bannock. And then all of the current and future development on the Gates Factory site at I-25/Broadway and down to Evans Station.

So how's the light/commuter rail TOD looking?

• Denver Union Station: Home Run or A- for the fussy
• 38th and Blake Station: Looking mighty good; a pending A-
• Pepsi Center Station: In planning; I'll guess a A- when its done
• Belleview Station: Coming along nicely A-
• 10th and Osage: Nicely done so far according to its vision B+
• Alameda Station: Solid with upside but less potential than others B
• I-25 and Broadway: A work-in-progress; destined to be solid B
• Evans Station: Warming up fast; projected B-
• Decatur-Federal: Just a matter of time; likely B+
• Central Park? Promises, promises to early to rate Incl
• 41st and Fox: Nice start, scratching the itch Incl

While I didn't set a high bar for grading I've gotta say that Denver is getting a lot of bang for their light and commuter rail buck with respect to TOD.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

So how's the light/commuter rail TOD looking?

• Denver Union Station: Home Run or A- for the fussy
• 38th and Blake Station: Looking mighty good; a pending A-
• Pepsi Center Station: In planning; I'll guess a A- when its done
• Belleview Station: Coming along nicely A-
• 10th and Osage: Nicely done so far according to its vision B+
• Alameda Station: Solid with upside but less potential than others B
• I-25 and Broadway: A work-in-progress; destined to be solid B
• Evans Station: Warming up fast; projected B-
• Decatur-Federal: Just a matter of time; likely B+
• Central Park? Promises, promises to early to rate Incl
• 41st and Fox: Nice start, scratching the itch Incl

While I didn't set a high bar for grading I've gotta say that Denver is getting a lot of bang for their light and commuter rail buck with respect to TOD.

I'm really interested to see how the three new Lone Tree stations do in attracting TOD. Lone Tree went all in to help finance that extension.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

In the oil boom, it was also the days of big towers built on spec thanks to the lax standards that gave us the S&L crisis. It was much easier then.

Pffffft

That was a nothing burger compared to the computer driven "do you have a heartbeat" NINJA ("no income, no job and no assets") lending of 2006/2007 packaged up and passed along as high quality new fancy Wall Street derivatives with their various tranches. Now that was a Recession to Remember. Denver didn't suffer from a significant overhang of real estate inventory but it hardly mattered as the aftershocks impacted everybody.

Interestingly, most recessions have been driven by real estate excesses. The Fed-induced recession of the 80's though resulted more from uncontrollable inflation; it was mostly a cost & wage spiral.

But your point about today is why it's hard to find any real estate bubbles. If the economy were to become constipated there might be some inventory overhang here and there but nothing particularly scary.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

I'm really interested to see how the three new Lone Tree stations do in attracting TOD. Lone Tree went all in to help finance that extension.

Lone Tree will do very, very well.

It goes as much to another discussion of building contemporary mixed-use areas that are walkable even if at a suburban level of medium density. Whether tech companies or others, nice open floor design with larger floor plates are in high demand. Light rail is a cherry on top as it attracts funding which attracts developers and tenants and those (millennial's and others) who want to live in mixed use areas.

It should succeed similarly to The Domain in Austin or downtown Tempe which incorporate these same appealing features. It's what the DTC generally lacks.

Because downtown Denver has become such a magnet metro Denver doesn't really have other developing strong mixed-use areas aside from Lone Tree that I can think of.

[twister244]

Does anyone have a rendering for this?......

https://www.hotel-online.com/press_relea...-ground-on-vib-hotel-in-denver-colorado/

[UrbanT]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

"That area is just really up and coming and turning over," Bildstein said. "It’s kind of like a mini RiNo."
The reference presumably refers to the current industrial flavor.

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/...ust-22.html?iana=hpmvp_den_news_headline

This potential TOD area has taken some time but by golly it's seems to be gathering steam. This will be across the street from a 200-unit Greystar project the Encore Evans Station apartments.

A block to the south an eight-story apartment building has already been approved called Cherokee Flats by LCP Development.


Courtesy LCP Development via BusinessDen


A $billion here; a $billion there and pretty soon we're looking at a new tallest.

There’s construction equipment and fencing up at both of these sites!

[UrbanT]

Originally Posted by twister244

Does anyone have a rendering for this?......

https://www.hotel-online.com/press_relea...-ground-on-vib-hotel-in-denver-colorado/

https://www.bisnow.com/denver/news/hotel/twc-to-develop-vb-hotel-in-rino-92932

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by twister244

Does anyone have a rendering for this?......

https://www.hotel-online.com/press_relea...-ground-on-vib-hotel-in-denver-colorado/

No, but I always love it when I see shovels:


Courtesy: TWC Management via Hotel Online

Originally Posted by UrbanT

There’s construction equipment and fencing up at both of these sites!

Good to know, way to go.

Originally Posted by UrbanT

https://www.bisnow.com/denver/news/hotel/twc-to-develop-vb-hotel-in-rino-92932

Well, you're a wealth of good information today.


Courtesy of Base4 via BizNow

[TakeFive]

The Fox North site will mark the first project for the international partnership.


Courtesy Tryba Architects via Denverite

41-acre 'Fox North' parcel in Globeville sells for $56.5 million
Aug 22, 2019 By James Rodriguez – Data Reporter, Denver Business Journal

The new owner is Vita Fox North LP, a partnership between Indianapolis-based Pure Development and Mexico City-based Interland. Tyler Morris, principal at Pure Development, said the international partnership is keeping an open mind as it considers the future of the site.

"We’re taking the plans that Tryba put together with the previous owners into heavy consideration," Morris said. "I know they’re a great group. Our team has personally met with David Tryba, and really hold that company in high regard. At this point, it’s hard to say what the final plans will end up looking like."

Who are these clowns? Some general background, please?

The partnership between Interland and Pure Development was born out of more than 20 years of personal and professional relationships, Morris said. The Fox North site will mark the first project for the international partnership.

Featured projects on Pure Development's website include corporate headquarters, manufacturing facilities and distribution centers. "Having a corporate user on the site would be something we would consider," Morris said. But it's still way too early to tell that. We're still in the preliminary stages."

Maybe add a little hype to this?

Eric Roth, senior vice president at CBRE, said the site's proximity to downtown Denver, Highland and Sunnyside have it "poised to be the next RiNo."

“Located one block from the Fox Street RTD Station and one stop away from Union Station, the site is one of the largest and most exciting urban [transit-oriented development] sites in the metro area,” Roth said in a press release. “We are confident that the new ownership will be strategic in their vision to create placemaking and ultimately a special project.”

Oh yeah, that was good; now I'm stoked.

(Rumor has it that Mexico says Trump is going to pay for this.)

[DenverInfill]

That isn't what the Vib hotel will look like. That is a rendering from, IIRC, Louisvilly KY that was used as a placeholder.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

That isn't what the Vib hotel will look like. That is a rendering from, IIRC, Louisvilly KY that was used as a placeholder.

Good to know; thanks for the correction.

Hopefully somebody will track down a Real RiNo Rendering soon.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Pffffft

That was a nothing burger compared to the computer driven "do you have a heartbeat" NINJA ("no income, no job and no assets") lending of 2006/2007 packaged up and passed along as high quality new fancy Wall Street derivatives with their various tranches. Now that was a Recession to Remember. Denver didn't suffer from a significant overhang of real estate inventory but it hardly mattered as the aftershocks impacted everybody.

Interestingly, most recessions have been driven by real estate excesses. The Fed-induced recession of the 80's though resulted more from uncontrollable inflation; it was mostly a cost & wage spiral.

But your point about today is why it's hard to find any real estate bubbles. If the economy were to become constipated there might be some inventory overhang here and there but nothing particularly scary.

The last boom was NOTHING like the early 80s in commercial real estate financing.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

The last boom was NOTHING like the early 80s in commercial real estate financing.

Fair enough; the 80's S&L fiasco was noteworthy for commercial property. Actually, Denver experienced a double-whammy because when the Oil & Gas guys packed up their bags and left town they left behind see-thru office buildings downtown and also thousands of empty housing units. But the S&L crisis was largely limited to well S&L's along with those cities left with vacant commercial real estate which was bad enough.

The Great Recession however was the worst financial crisis to my mind caused by a huge real estate bubble. We, the U.S.A. managed to create a Global financial crisis the likes of which I've never seen before. How many $trillions did it take the Fed to backstop this crisis using levers they've never used before? Maybe you were relatively unaffected and thanks to the Fed (and to Obama's ARRA) many were able to carry on with their lives without much pain. But I hope to never see the stock market dive to such depths ever again. Let's just say the stock market wasn't lying; those were very scary times.

[SnyderBock]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Fair enough; the 80's S&L fiasco was noteworthy for commercial property. Actually, Denver experienced a double-whammy because when the Oil & Gas guys packed up their bags and left town they left behind see-thru office buildings downtown and also thousands of empty housing units. But the S&L crisis was largely limited to well S&L's along with those cities left with vacant commercial real estate which was bad enough.

The Great Recession however was the worst financial crisis to my mind caused by a huge real estate bubble. We, the U.S.A. managed to create a Global financial crisis the likes of which I've never seen before. How many $trillions did it take the Fed to backstop this crisis using levers they've never used before? Maybe you were relatively unaffected and thanks to the Fed (and to Obama's ARRA) many were able to carry on with their lives without much pain. But I hope to never see the stock market dive to such depths ever again. Let's just say the stock market wasn't lying; those were very scary times.

That's exactly what we are headed into now. Only this time, the recovery period won't see the job growth recovery that we had after the great recession. That is because, in order to survive this recession, companies will turn to AI and robotics to cut costs. So how will we rebound the 2/3rds of the economy based on consumerism, without solid job growth? A corporate taxation on AI and robotics assets, which in turn will fund a UBI. Initializing the UBI brings a boost to consumer spending, which leads to an expansion in service industry jobs which haven't been replaced by technology. They won't be great paying jobs, but in addition to the UBI, it will add up to a secure middle class lifestyle, which in turn further expands consumerism and specifically the service industry as well as technology services sector (R&M of robotic assets).

I have already cashed in on all my capital gains - as of July 22nd (18.5% in gains, to be exact) along with~60% of my holdings. I have eliminated most of my debt and what debt remains will be paid off over the next two years. I have shifted an additional 7.5% of my remaining holdings into gold as well as another 10% shifted over into high grade bonds. During the upcoming recession, I plan to pump liquidity into equities in carefully selected corporations, which are embracing AI and robotics. I will also invest heavily into blue Chip tech companies and other high dividend companies which have a place in this AI & Robotics based economy. I will also look to purchase a home in a projected optimum buying window which should exist between 3-5 years out from now. I highly recommend you all take similar actions to take advantage of this great opportunity quickly approaching us. I'm walking a very fine line of being completely off topic, so I won't discuss it again on here. My apologies.

[bushw00d]

Originally Posted by SnyderBock

I have already cashed in on all my capital gains - as of July 22nd (18.5% in gains, to be exact) along with~60% of my holdings. I have eliminated most of my debt and what debt remains will be paid off over the next two years. I have shifted an additional 7.5% of my remaining holdings into gold as well as another 10% shifted over into high grade bonds. During the upcoming recession, I plan to pump liquidity into equities in carefully selected corporations, which are embracing AI and robotics. I will also invest heavily into blue Chip tech companies and other high dividend companies which have a place in this AI & Robotics based economy. I will also look to purchase a home in a projected optimum buying window which should exist between 3-5 years out from now. I highly recommend you all take similar actions to take advantage of this great opportunity quickly approaching us. I'm walking a very fine line of being completely off topic, so I won't discuss it again on here. My apologies.

I have no opinions about the plans outlined above but I gotta admit that I appreciate the conviction and your willingness to act. I don't even know what I'm going to do this afternoon...