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  #9721  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 3:52 PM
p_xavier p_xavier is offline
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Originally Posted by urbandreamer View Post
Quite a number of projects cancelled in the GTA. New home sales are falling, many design build flippers have gotten burned/slowed their flipping of bungalows into mcmansions.

Ottawa could easily crash if the PC's are elected--they'll surely cut jobs.
Which shows how ridiculous the market is because people need housing, and now no new housing is being built because of insane prices that developpers want.
     
     
  #9722  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 4:41 PM
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^ Yet another reason why the argument that we just need to cut taxes and rules to get more supply to fix the problem is bullshit. In Ottawa, there was an oversupply of condos in the earlier part of this decade, but that didn't drop prices, because all the developers simply stopped building until prices went up again.

I wonder if we need some sort of crown corporation to build market housing continually--increasing construction if private developers slow down--in order to force supply to keep increasing when/if prices stagnate to improve affordability.
     
     
  #9723  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 5:24 PM
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Originally Posted by CityTech View Post
^ Yet another reason why the argument that we just need to cut taxes and rules to get more supply to fix the problem is bullshit. In Ottawa, there was an oversupply of condos in the earlier part of this decade, but that didn't drop prices, because all the developers simply stopped building until prices went up again.

I wonder if we need some sort of crown corporation to build market housing continually--increasing construction if private developers slow down--in order to force supply to keep increasing when/if prices stagnate to improve affordability.
What you just said is an oxymoron. When there is an oversupply prices definitely go down. Long term if nothing new is built then the oversupply doesn’t continue so prices go back up. That’s why governments need to ensure that there is a steady oversupply by providing incentives rather than raising fees/taxes. Look at Seattle as an example, they doubled their rental vacancy rate in response to a rental crisis through government incentives.

If you look at Vancouver prices have been going down mildly due to an oversupply of new housing as we ramped up construction in 2016-2018. However in response to rising fees, taxes, and lowered prices it’s gone down for 2019.

And btw any government market program won’t work because government couldn’t build at a profit and pay its own fees and taxes. They need private development to balance their budgets. Developers profit margins are slim so building housing for less doesn’t suddenly become profitable if the government is involved.

A reminder that the levels of government receives more than 5 billion every year from BC real estate. They’d have to cut welfare programs to the bone to balance a decline in the real estate market. Or increase provincial income taxes 20%+, property tax 30%+, GST 30%+, etc.
     
     
  #9724  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 6:21 PM
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What happened in Ottawa 5 years ago is price growth went flat, and all developers responded by ceasing construction causing prices to stall instead of drop, until there was once again a shortage and prices started skyrocketing again.

Development can never fix the problem because as soon as supply goes up enough to halt price growth, developers will stop building and sit on their projects until prices go back up. We're already seeing this happen in Vancouver and Toronto and it will prevent prices from going down any further.

In terms of incentives I suppose one that could work well is punitive taxes for undeveloped land to force developers to build instead of sitting on approvals. If you've got a project approved and don't start within 12 months, land tax doubles. Or something like that.
     
     
  #9725  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 7:07 PM
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Originally Posted by CityTech View Post
What happened in Ottawa 5 years ago is price growth went flat, and all developers responded by ceasing construction causing prices to stall instead of drop, until there was once again a shortage and prices started skyrocketing again.

Development can never fix the problem because as soon as supply goes up enough to halt price growth, developers will stop building and sit on their projects until prices go back up. We're already seeing this happen in Vancouver and Toronto and it will prevent prices from going down any further.

In terms of incentives I suppose one that could work well is punitive taxes for undeveloped land to force developers to build instead of sitting on approvals. If you've got a project approved and don't start within 12 months, land tax doubles. Or something like that.
This is one reason we need foreign buyers so more projects come to market faster.
although they only market up 5%-10% of the market they can help push a project over the line to get built and create housing for the other 90%.
Vancouver will eventually find out that by shutting themselves from foreign buyers that many projects will not proceed and housing supply will shrink and cause higher prices.
     
     
  #9726  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 7:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Nite View Post
This is one reason we need foreign buyers so more projects come to market faster.
although they only market up 5%-10% of the market they can help push a project over the line to get built and create housing for the other 90%.
Vancouver will eventually find out that by shutting themselves from foreign buyers that many projects will not proceed and housing supply will shrink and cause higher prices.
Who cares? it's not worth sacrificing affordability for millions of Canadians just so some shady characters have somewhere to stash their cash. That path leads down the road t ridiuclpus amounts spent by offshore companies on land like the Chevron West Georgia site or the Barclay site locals developers sold to an ffshore firm willing to blow a crazy amount of money. I can't believe anybody in this day an age would make such an argument!

Is there is demand for housing, developers will build it.
     
     
  #9727  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 8:04 PM
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Who cares? it's not worth sacrificing affordability for millions of Canadians just so some shady characters have somewhere to stash their cash. I can't believe anybody would make such an argument!

Is there is demand for housing, developers will build it.
The people who buy pre-construction condos are usually investors who are fine with the risk and waiting for 3 years for a project to reach occupancy. The people looking for a place to live are often not looking at pre-constructions with an occupancy date of 3 years in the future.

You need investors, both foreign and domestic to carry projects to market. when you try to limit these investors it means projects will be stalled and take longer to come to market.
This is what is happening to Vancouver right now

and as we all no less supply will lead to higher prices.
     
     
  #9728  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 8:14 PM
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Originally Posted by CityTech View Post
I wonder if we need some sort of crown corporation to build market housing continually--increasing construction if private developers slow down--in order to force supply to keep increasing when/if prices stagnate to improve affordability.

This is an idea that I'm a big fan of. A for-profit crown corporation that is able to bypass a lot of the regulatory hurdles and fees that private developers face, with a mandate to building as many housing units as needed with some semblance of social responsibility could flood the market with reasonably-priced, decent-quality (ie. non-investor-driven) housing; generate lots of revenue for the government; and simultaneously drive down prices on private developments by providing a cheaper competition.
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  #9729  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 8:19 PM
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Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
This is an idea that I'm a big fan of. A for-profit crown corporation that is able to bypass a lot of the regulatory hurdles and fees that private developers face, with a mandate to building as many housing units as needed with some semblance of social responsibility could flood the market with reasonably-priced, decent-quality (ie. non-investor-driven) housing; generate lots of revenue for the government; and simultaneously drive down prices on private developments by providing a cheaper competition.
Has this ever been done successfully? And how would government makeup for the giant hole in its income base that development and property sales occupied. A lot of the fees go to services so how will they pay for utility hookups or community centers of modular housing?

And btw developers aren’t any greedier than they were decades ago, the costs on them have risen tremendously which have driven up prices. https://torontorealtyblog.com/blog/cost-construct-condo-2018/

An example from Toronto:
Quote:
Cost to acquire land: $200/sqft
Hard costs: $330/sqft
Soft costs: $150/sqft

That’s $680 per square foot.

And that’s using conservative numbers.

The cost to acquire the land, looking at downtown condos, and looking at actual sellable square footage, would probably be closer to $300/sqft.

The cost of building something with above-average finishes might be closer to $400/sqft.

That’s now $850/sqft.

And what are pre-construction condos selling for, on average, in downtown Toronto right now? About $1,000/sqft.
People talk about "greedy" developers yet we don't see the non-profits or the city developing in large swathes despite the higher prices. Why is that? Perhaps, as most in the industry will tell you, its because costs have gone up with prices?
     
     
  #9730  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 10:19 PM
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Originally Posted by misher View Post
Has this ever been done successfully? And how would government makeup for the giant hole in its income base that development and property sales occupied. A lot of the fees go to services so how will they pay for utility hookups or community centers of modular housing?

And btw developers aren’t any greedier than they were decades ago, the costs on them have risen tremendously which have driven up prices. https://torontorealtyblog.com/blog/cost-construct-condo-2018/

An example from Toronto:


People talk about "greedy" developers yet we don't see the non-profits or the city developing in large swathes despite the higher prices. Why is that? Perhaps, as most in the industry will tell you, its because costs have gone up with prices?
Your on the right path. Developer and builder margins are on average no different than they were decades ago. There is this myth that developers and builders are riding a wave of huge profit increases because home prices have soared....that isn't true at all, in fact, i'd say it's the opposite. Just about every developer has a home building division so they can compete with ever tightening margins.

Costs have risen du to:
1) land costs. That farmer on the edge of town holding out for a massive pay day with prices close to what serviced land will sell for. Or that run down building prime for multi story redevelopment that costs low 6 figures to buy 30 years ago now trying to sell it for millions. Hold out long enough and somebody will eventually buy it hoping that housing costs will increase to make up for what they overpaid. People overpay and you just get into a vicious cycle of increasing what you overpay.

2) Off site costs. Municipalities keep throwing up more hurdles to get developers to pay for stuff they didn't have to a generation or two ago. The new Municipal Government Act in Alberta gives additional powers to municipalities to force developers to pay for all kinds of shit. We are going to pay for this eventually, either in taxes or upfront with the costs of a new lot. You would expect that new homes have a reduced tax rate to recognize the fact that their infrastructure is funded differently, but that isn't the case.

3) Bureaucracy. Buy a piece of land and your waiting YEARS until you can do something with it. All while spending more and more on it with nothing coming in. Financing costs money, and realistically, your returns are better with other types of investments. Then during that 5 years it takes to get something serviced, rules change and that dirty slough is now recognized as a habitat for some rare frog species and you loose 5% of your net developable land.

4) Buyer expectations. Starter homes decades ago came with linoleum countertops, carpets. Not walk in showers with 30 nozzles spraying you from every direction, you did the landscaping yourself....

5) Servicing requirements. It was a lot cheaper to develop land a generation or two ago. You didn't have to spend millions building storm ponds, material quality and lifespans have increased....and again, buyers of homes in new neighborhoods tax rates don't reflect the huge reduction in maintenance liability compared to mature neighborhoods.

So while these costs only impact new development, the reality is every time you increase the costs of new homes, the market reacts and surprise surprise, the costs of mature homes rise to keep pace.

Want to lower housing prices? Reduce barriers on new product, and when you force developers to now fund something they didn't have to 30 years ago, levy the existing tax base so that they have to compensate for it too.
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  #9731  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2019, 11:01 PM
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Originally Posted by SHOFEAR View Post
Your on the right path. Developer and builder margins are on average no different than they were decades ago. There is this myth that developers and builders are riding a wave of huge profit increases because home prices have soared....that isn't true at all, in fact, i'd say it's the opposite. Just about every developer has a home building division so they can compete with ever tightening margins.

Costs have risen du to:
1) land costs. That farmer on the edge of town holding out for a massive pay day with prices close to what serviced land will sell for. Or that run down building prime for multi story redevelopment that costs low 6 figures to buy 30 years ago now trying to sell it for millions. Hold out long enough and somebody will eventually buy it hoping that housing costs will increase to make up for what they overpaid. People overpay and you just get into a vicious cycle of increasing what you overpay.

2) Off site costs. Municipalities keep throwing up more hurdles to get developers to pay for stuff they didn't have to a generation or two ago. The new Municipal Government Act in Alberta gives additional powers to municipalities to force developers to pay for all kinds of shit. We are going to pay for this eventually, either in taxes or upfront with the costs of a new lot. You would expect that new homes have a reduced tax rate to recognize the fact that their infrastructure is funded differently, but that isn't the case.

3) Bureaucracy. Buy a piece of land and your waiting YEARS until you can do something with it. All while spending more and more on it with nothing coming in. Financing costs money, and realistically, your returns are better with other types of investments. Then during that 5 years it takes to get something serviced, rules change and that dirty slough is now recognized as a habitat for some rare frog species and you loose 5% of your net developable land.

4) Buyer expectations. Starter homes decades ago came with linoleum countertops, carpets. Not walk in showers with 30 nozzles spraying you from every direction, you did the landscaping yourself....

5) Servicing requirements. It was a lot cheaper to develop land a generation or two ago. You didn't have to spend millions building storm ponds, material quality and lifespans have increased....and again, buyers of homes in new neighborhoods tax rates don't reflect the huge reduction in maintenance liability compared to mature neighborhoods.

So while these costs only impact new development, the reality is every time you increase the costs of new homes, the market reacts and surprise surprise, the costs of mature homes rise to keep pace.

Want to lower housing prices? Reduce barriers on new product, and when you force developers to now fund something they didn't have to 30 years ago, levy the existing tax base so that they have to compensate for it too.
We even have new developments in Vancouver paying for transit as of 2020. Basically everyone is clamoring for their piece of flesh so they can increase spending and probably give themselves a nice pay raise as they now manage a bigger budget.
     
     
  #9732  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2019, 12:08 AM
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It started to become crazy over a year ago and has remained so.
Between 1958 and 1978 average selling price of a home in Ottawa quadrupled. Between 1978 and 1998 average selling price of a home in Ottawa doubled. Between 1998 and 2018 average selling price of a home in Ottawa tripled.


Over 60 years the average selling price went from $15K to $415K. However prices have increased by about 8.5% over the last 12 months, the highest increase since 2010 when prices increased by 7.7%.

All in all very indicative of a normal cyclical market with a steady overall increase in the long term.
     
     
  #9733  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2019, 12:42 AM
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Between 1958 and 1978 average selling price of a home in Ottawa quadrupled. Between 1978 and 1998 average selling price of a home in Ottawa doubled. Between 1998 and 2018 average selling price of a home in Ottawa tripled.


Over 60 years the average selling price went from $15K to $415K. However prices have increased by about 8.5% over the last 12 months, the highest increase since 2010 when prices increased by 7.7%.

All in all very indicative of a normal cyclical market with a steady overall increase in the long term.
Also we’re not buying the same homes as we were decades ago. Fire systems, sheave jammers in elevators, thicker earthquake resistant cement, energy efficient insulation and HVAC systems, etc. all these add to the costs. A home today is far more complex and expensive to build than one from the 60s.
     
     
  #9734  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2019, 1:37 AM
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Originally Posted by CityTech View Post
^ Yet another reason why the argument that we just need to cut taxes and rules to get more supply to fix the problem is bullshit. In Ottawa, there was an oversupply of condos in the earlier part of this decade, but that didn't drop prices, because all the developers simply stopped building until prices went up again.

I wonder if we need some sort of crown corporation to build market housing continually--increasing construction if private developers slow down--in order to force supply to keep increasing when/if prices stagnate to improve affordability.
I normally am opposed to 'affordable housing' being built by municipalities as it is an incredibly inefficient subsidy from cities to people who don't deserve cheap housing any more than anyone else, and does nothing to solve the underlying issue.

But your idea of a larger body to do this makes more sense. The housing market does not function as a pure free market, as you point out. The prices almost always only go up (above inflation), and if they do fall they don't often fall enough to get back to the average before skyrocketing again.

It would have to be very carefully set up though, and I'm not sure our government is bold enough to pull it off. It would likely end up distorting the markey in some unforseen way though.

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Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
This is an idea that I'm a big fan of. A for-profit crown corporation that is able to bypass a lot of the regulatory hurdles and fees that private developers face, with a mandate to building as many housing units as needed with some semblance of social responsibility could flood the market with reasonably-priced, decent-quality (ie. non-investor-driven) housing; generate lots of revenue for the government; and simultaneously drive down prices on private developments by providing a cheaper competition.
That's an utterly terrible idea though. If those regulations are there, then they must have a purpose, that applies just as much to government construction as private construction. And if those regulations don't have a purpose, why the hell are we subjecting the private sector with those pointless regulations? The correct response is not to just build literal commie blocks ignoring the rules, if the rules are not worth sticking to, just get rid of them and the private sector will build more.

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Originally Posted by Nite View Post
This is one reason we need foreign buyers so more projects come to market faster.
although they only market up 5%-10% of the market they can help push a project over the line to get built and create housing for the other 90%.
Vancouver will eventually find out that by shutting themselves from foreign buyers that many projects will not proceed and housing supply will shrink and cause higher prices.
Lol! Econ 101, increasing demand (especially from outside consumers with more money than the locals) does not decrease prices!
     
     
  #9735  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2019, 2:50 AM
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Lol! Econ 101, increasing demand (especially from outside consumers with more money than the locals) does not decrease prices!
Also rental 101, more rentals for a given population=lower rents. Speculators, investors, foreigners, were driving new housing construction and these units were usually being rented out artificially keeping our rents much lower than profitable. Thus rents became very detached from home prices. Now the government has to introduce a ton of incentives just to get rentals built because the rents charged do not justify their construction.

What’s been done to lower housing prices is great for rich renters on the cusp of buying, but screws the average renter.

Not to mention the lost taxes and revenue.
     
     
  #9736  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2019, 3:02 AM
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The people who buy pre-construction condos are usually investors who are fine with the risk and waiting for 3 years for a project to reach occupancy. The people looking for a place to live are often not looking at pre-constructions with an occupancy date of 3 years in the future.

You need investors, both foreign and domestic to carry projects to market. when you try to limit these investors it means projects will be stalled and take longer to come to market.
This is what is happening to Vancouver right now

and as we all no less supply will lead to higher prices.
The one flaw is that the investors would buy up a good majority of the units in a new developement. This would leave very few units for a non-investor to purchase. Then the investor would just sit on the empy unit.

So now we have a new developement that is sold with a bunch of empty units doing nothing.

The problem is that there is no perfect solution. Any solution will fix one area but will cause problems in another area. This is just simply the cause and effect of economics. So we can chat until we are all dead and there will still be a problem.

We don't necessarily need the price of housing to drop. What would even help is if it were to just stagnate for a while. So the long term average of housing would align more with the inflation rate.
     
     
  #9737  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2019, 4:15 AM
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The one flaw is that the investors would buy up a good majority of the units in a new developement. This would leave very few units for a non-investor to purchase. Then the investor would just sit on the empy unit.

So now we have a new developement that is sold with a bunch of empty units doing nothing.

The problem is that there is no perfect solution. Any solution will fix one area but will cause problems in another area. This is just simply the cause and effect of economics. So we can chat until we are all dead and there will still be a problem.

We don't necessarily need the price of housing to drop. What would even help is if it were to just stagnate for a while. So the long term average of housing would align more with the inflation rate.
There’s absolutely no evidence so suggest that investors, people buying to make money, would leave a condo they could rent and make an income from empty. Especially since they could deduct maintenance fees and the mortgage from the rent.

Honestly I suspect a lot of these housing activists are actually people with money trying to push prices down so they can scoop places up. Most of the stuff we’re doing screws renters and affordability.
     
     
  #9738  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2019, 3:32 PM
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That's an utterly terrible idea though. If those regulations are there, then they must have a purpose, that applies just as much to government construction as private construction. And if those regulations don't have a purpose, why the hell are we subjecting the private sector with those pointless regulations? The correct response is not to just build literal commie blocks ignoring the rules, if the rules are not worth sticking to, just get rid of them and the private sector will build more.

I'm not suggesting that this theoretical crown corp just be completely exempt from any sort of scrutiny or community consultations and the like, but for instance, (IIRC) there's a $50,000 development fee per unit in Toronto that it could be exempt from (with the guarantee that the savings are actually passed onto the consumer). And with various government regulations intrinsically built in to their operations, the planning & permit process could be made more efficient (versus the back-and-forth that can go on for years between developers and the city). Cities and provinces also have the advantage of already owning a bunch of underused land that could be used for development, at a cost of $0 to purchase.

And for the record, I also support generally relaxing zoning restrictions, streamlining the permit process, and reducing development fees to make building cheaper & easier. Just as there are several causes behind the housing crisis, there needs to be several solutions as well.




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Originally Posted by SHOFEAR View Post
4) Buyer expectations. Starter homes decades ago came with linoleum countertops, carpets. Not walk in showers with 30 nozzles spraying you from every direction, you did the landscaping yourself....

Sorry, but this one is so completely off base as to be a bit laughable.

Maybe things are different in Edmonton, but standard mid-range condo or townhouse developments in Toronto today aren't exactly luxurious or of a higher build quality than those of the recent past. They're "nice" because they're new and clean, but compared to say, a 60s commie block apartment, the older unit will be significantly larger with a more usable floor plan, have bedrooms with actual windows, have real hardwood floors instead of laminate, and have windows that don't fall off after a few months. The only added luxuries that are now typical in newer builds are air conditioning and in-unit laundry machines.

Buyers in high-value markets are paying more for less than ever before.
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  #9739  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2019, 7:38 PM
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Sorry, but this one is so completely off base as to be a bit laughable.

Maybe things are different in Edmonton, but standard mid-range condo or townhouse developments in Toronto today aren't exactly luxurious or of a higher build quality than those of the recent past. They're "nice" because they're new and clean, but compared to say, a 60s commie block apartment, the older unit will be significantly larger with a more usable floor plan, have bedrooms with actual windows, have real hardwood floors instead of laminate, and have windows that don't fall off after a few months. The only added luxuries that are now typical in newer builds are air conditioning and in-unit laundry machines.

Buyers in high-value markets are paying more for less than ever before.
Edmonton is not different, the comment is misinformed about what a starter home is. Drive to any new "starter" area and the home builder gives options from basic flooring/counters and you do your own yard...some home builders cover the front yard as an incentive that is all. You realize quickly in these neighbourhoods that some people don't realize the cost associated with building a garage, landscaping, and fencing as it can take years for those to be completed like in other cities.

Having just sold a "starter" home the comments we got from people touring our home were just as laughable as the above comment. Things such as " there is no granite counter-tops" the basement is unfinished and too boxy".
     
     
  #9740  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2019, 7:58 PM
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Originally Posted by cabotp View Post
The one flaw is that the investors would buy up a good majority of the units in a new developement. This would leave very few units for a non-investor to purchase. Then the investor would just sit on the empy unit.

So now we have a new developement that is sold with a bunch of empty units doing nothing.

The problem is that there is no perfect solution. Any solution will fix one area but will cause problems in another area. This is just simply the cause and effect of economics. So we can chat until we are all dead and there will still be a problem.

We don't necessarily need the price of housing to drop. What would even help is if it were to just stagnate for a while. So the long term average of housing would align more with the inflation rate.
Investors are not going to throw out money like that by having their investments not make money. But if some left their unit empty, they are still responsible for getting an entirely new building builts and someone will be living in the non-investor units. that's still a net benefit of having those housing unit on the market.
     
     
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