High Speed Rail Forum!

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Dupcheck

So when is this going to happen? or Was it another election promise to lure voters?

It was totally a Liberal election promise.

[Stevo26]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

We're going to find out how serious Canada is about tackling climate change in a decade or so. The only real space to cut emissions in Canada is largely in transport.

[snip]

And that would likely bring only marginal returns from a global standpoint since Canada is responsible for generating only 1.6% of the total of all greenhouse gasses.

[TallerIsBetter]

Originally Posted by Stevo26

And that would likely bring only marginal returns from a global standpoint since Canada is responsible for generating only 1.6% of the total of all greenhouse gasses.

Sorry, not even marginal. It would be nothing. Zip. Nada. And do not mention per-capita, because the atmosphere only sees total amounts. Per-capita argument is a manipulative ploy to guilt people who have only an emotional understanding of climate.

Another reality is that the "we must set the example" argument is nothing but a fantasy. China and India do not care about examples, only their long term self-interest economic and geopolitical strategies (and it is no secret that China is aggressive on those). They may play games with lip service and promises at international meetings, but will only laugh as we lower our standard of living. Another argument for those who only approach climate with an emotional analysis.

[ssiguy]

The proposed Wynne HSR "plan" {written on the back of used toilet paper right before an election} was never a serious proposal and frankly never should have been.

The monstrous amounts spent on it wouldn't have been worth it and wouldn't have been particularly fast either due to having so many stops between London & Union. The answer has always been to increase the number of tracks on the current Union/Aldershot/Toronto route so freight traffic wouldn't slow everything down, run express trains from Win/Lon/Tor, build key overpasses, and crutially building the damn Brantford by-pass.

The Brantford section is not only very slow but also adds 15km of congested corridor to the route. The northern by-pass still has the ROW and all of these things would bring faster trains between the 3 cities than the KW route. Electrification was a big part of the expense and needed to reduce emissions but comes with a very hefty pricetag. Thankfully there is now an alternative............hydrogen EMU that can travel up to 170km/hr. Remember the soutern route is VERY direct, unlike the Kitchener route, and from Union to London is only 180km but 195 via Kitchener.

Kitchener also doesn't need HSR connection with the huge expansion of GO & GO Express service in the works. Kitchner is also not on the main Corridor route.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The proposed Wynne HSR "plan" {written on the back of used toilet paper right before an election} was never a serious proposal and frankly never should have been.

The monstrous amounts spent on it wouldn't have been worth it and wouldn't have been particularly fast either due to having so many stops between London & Union. The answer has always been to increase the number of tracks on the current Union/Aldershot/Toronto route so freight traffic wouldn't slow everything down, run express trains from Win/Lon/Tor, build key overpasses, and crutially building the damn Brantford by-pass.

The Brantford section is not only very slow but also adds 15km of congested corridor to the route. The northern by-pass still has the ROW and all of these things would bring faster trains between the 3 cities than the KW route. Electrification was a big part of the expense and needed to reduce emissions but comes with a very hefty pricetag. Thankfully there is now an alternative............hydrogen EMU that can travel up to 170km/hr. Remember the soutern route is VERY direct, unlike the Kitchener route, and from Union to London is only 180km but 195 via Kitchener.

Kitchener also doesn't need HSR connection with the huge expansion of GO & GO Express service in the works. Kitchner is also not on the main Corridor route.

I would definitely be in favour of this Brantford bypass. They could still put a station in Paris to ensure service in that area.

[jammer139]

Rex Murphy sums up the reality in this piece - https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-mur...continue-their-tiresome-climate-charades

Originally Posted by TallerIsBetter

Sorry, not even marginal. It would be nothing. Zip. Nada. And do not mention per-capita, because the atmosphere only sees total amounts. Per-capita argument is a manipulative ploy to guilt people who have only an emotional understanding of climate.

Another reality is that the "we must set the example" argument is nothing but a fantasy. China and India do not care about examples, only their long term self-interest economic and geopolitical strategies (and it is no secret that China is aggressive on those). They may play games with lip service and promises at international meetings, but will only laugh as we lower our standard of living. Another argument for those who only approach climate with an emotional analysis.

[ssiguy]

While it's true that trying to set an example to a tyrannical nation like China is absurd, it shouldn't be used, as Murphy seems to be implying, as a way to abrogate our own responsibilities. You could use that sort of childish argument for nerarly everything. Hell, why should Canada care about human rights in our country if we represent only 0.5% of the global population when China doesn't care about them and they have 20%?

[TallerIsBetter]

Bad analogy. Any abuse of human rights is heinous. Canada's contribution to total output of CO2 is inconcequential, that's the bottom line FACT, regardless of the indoctrination you may have gotten at school any time over the last 20 years. The every-little-bit helps notion is true when it comes to litter, but not CO2. You've been hoodwinked on that - ANYTHING you do makes no difference to the atmosphere, period.

[TallerIsBetter]

https://www.lomborg.com/press-release-research-reveals-negligible-impact-of-paris-climate-promises

[Djeffery]

I don't have the moral high ground to tell Cleveland Ohio to stop dumping shit into Lake Erie if I'm taking a piss off the Port Stanley pier. I don't know what the solution is, but saying "If Cleveland doesn't care, why should I?" isn't it, because some number of years down the road, we are both going to wish we could drink from Lake Erie.

[TallerIsBetter]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I don't have the moral high ground to tell Cleveland Ohio to stop dumping shit into Lake Erie if I'm taking a piss off the Port Stanley pier. I don't know what the solution is, but saying "If Cleveland doesn't care, why should I?" isn't it, because some number of years down the road, we are both going to wish we could drink from Lake Erie.

Again, another bad analogy. That's an emotionally-rooted response that belies a lack of understanding of the science behind any of this.

You are not grasping the scale of the atmosphere, the proportionality and nature of C02 (it is NOT a pollutant), nor the process of feedbacks and natural carbon sinks - none of the those compare or apply with your analogy.

Unfortunately, the public, and now particularly children, are being trained to react only emotionally on this topic, and are discouraged from being curious about the scientific reality and the actual scientific dissent (which is not funded by Exxon, lol, and is a lot more that 3%) and the bullying of opposing views in accademe and in the media/public discourse.

Read the Lomborg piece I posted above - all of the most optimistic estimates of full implementation of the Paris targets will not make barely a smidge of change to the temperature of the planet, based on their own data. And that does not include changes that will occur from NATURAL climate drivers - which we don't understand yet and everyone is being conditioned to ignor. Natural climate drivers are strong - they cause ICE AGES, as well as hotter periods - but for some reason no one who is worrying about Anthropogenic drivers cares AT ALL about changes from natural drivers. They haven't gone anywhere and a tax won't impact them either, lol.

But we agree on wanting a clean Lake Erie and reduced Algae blooms!

[Truenorth00]

Best argument for HSR at the end of the day is economic. Not environmental. 1.5 hrs from London to Union station makes it commutable.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Best argument for HSR at the end of the day is economic. Not environmental. 1.5 hrs from London to Union station makes it commutable.

How low does the fare have to be to be economical to commute? The very cheapest, far in advance, limited seats, no flexibility fares on Via are 30-40 bucks each way plus tax. Is that a reasonable fare for HSR, or would it be higher? Is $500 or more per week too much for thousands of people a day to pay to commute to downtown Toronto?

[Innsertnamehere]

Via offers much more affordable commuting packages, at $590 for 20 trips, or $29.50/trip.

Someone living in London May work from home 2-3 days a week and take the HSR to Toronto for the other days, for example.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

How low does the fare have to be to be economical to commute? The very cheapest, far in advance, limited seats, no flexibility fares on Via are 30-40 bucks each way plus tax. Is that a reasonable fare for HSR, or would it be higher? Is $500 or more per week too much for thousands of people a day to pay to commute to downtown Toronto?

For average worker? No. For professionals making more than >$120k, the cost is justified, simply by the lower cost of housing in London.

And this is exactly what you see in many places with HSR elsewhere. Upper middle class professionals move to exurbs 100-200 km away and commute by HSR. They pay more for travel. But less for housing. On most HSR systems, commuters make up a substantial, if not majority, of ridership.

Take VIA's current pricing. Works out to $300 per week for a commuter. Or roughly $1200 per month. That's about what the mortgage payment is on $250k at 3% amortized for 25 years. So as long as the same house costs $250k less in London than Toronto, it could be economically justified.

The differences in average home prices between London and the GTA is about half a million dollars though. So any HSR service could actually get away with charging even more than VIA does today and still generate a ton of ridership, thank to the cut in travel times.

Now, a lot of those professionals who do commute that far, don't actually commute daily, so the math works out even better. If you get to stay home even 1-2x per week, London starts looking like a fantastic bargain.

Launch HSR and within half a decade you'll see London home price stabilize at about $300k less than Toronto, as a flood of Torontonian professionals move down and London's housing market gets more tied to the GTA, with a differential for the commuting costs and time.

[Dupcheck]

Let's see which party is going to dangle this carrot before the election. Liberals did it last time in the Provincial election. I am not sure if they will in the Federal one! Still it is a carrot that is waiting to be dangled and later put in the ground and forgotten for 4 years!

[Dupcheck]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

For average worker? No. For professionals making more than >$120k, the cost is justified, simply by the lower cost of housing in London.

And this is exactly what you see in many places with HSR elsewhere. Upper middle class professionals move to exurbs 100-200 km away and commute by HSR. They pay more for travel. But less for housing. On most HSR systems, commuters make up a substantial, if not majority, of ridership.

Take VIA's current pricing. Works out to $300 per week for a commuter. Or roughly $1200 per month. That's about what the mortgage payment is on $250k at 3% amortized for 25 years. So as long as the same house costs $250k less in London than Toronto, it could be economically justified.

The differences in average home prices between London and the GTA is about half a million dollars though. So any HSR service could actually get away with charging even more than VIA does today and still generate a ton of ridership, thank to the cut in travel times.

Now, a lot of those professionals who do commute that far, don't actually commute daily, so the math works out even better. If you get to stay home even 1-2x per week, London starts looking like a fantastic bargain.

Launch HSR and within half a decade you'll see London home price stabilize at about $300k less than Toronto, as a flood of Torontonian professionals move down and London's housing market gets more tied to the GTA, with a differential for the commuting costs and time.

I don't know if you have noticed, the Torontonians are already among us. House prices in London are going up by 10 to 15% a year for the last 4 years....and it is expected to continue.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Dupcheck

I don't know if you have noticed, the Torontonians are already among us. House prices in London are going up by 10 to 15% a year for the last 4 years....and it is expected to continue.

Didn't say there weren't already Torontonians here. My point here is that HSR would ramp up that trend substantially. And that's where the case for HSR is not about the environment, but economics.

[jammer139]

Of any VIA train that should be reinstated now its the 6:30am Train 82 from London to Toronto. This choice by VIA makes zero sense.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/london-toronto-train-via-1.6480397

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by jammer139

Of any VIA train that should be reinstated now its the 6:30am Train 82 from London to Toronto. This choice by VIA makes zero sense.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/london-toronto-train-via-1.6480397

agreed. I have taken that train probably 30 or so times.