Gas Prices

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Sure I expect experts like Dan to tell me what's going on, instead he trots out the same tired talking points, and people rant about carbon taxes.

Like I said, OPIS by IHS Markit is a good resource on pricing and news information for petroleum pricing, though it is a subscription-based service. They do have some free stuff on the OPIS Blog, and they do have a free webinar on the West Coast refined fuel market:

http://events.opisnet.com/west-coast-spot-market-webinar

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Sure I expect experts like Dan to tell me what's going on, instead he trots out the same tired talking points, and people rant about carbon taxes.

Dan is a perfect example of something self-fulfilling. The only reason he continues to be treated as though he is credible is:

1. the media is lazy and won't ask anyone else for comment because that would involve actual work

2. the media is lazy and, whether they want to admit it or not, loves to post the same clickbaity BS you see on Daily Hive or Narcity. Tax revolts are sexy and the media will never turn down a story that tries to kneecap the government even when they have nothing to do with the story or didn't do anything wrong

Lather, rinse, repeat.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by bluefox

Dan is a perfect example of something self-fulfilling. The only reason he continues to be treated as though he is credible is:

1. the media is lazy and won't ask anyone else for comment because that would involve actual work

2. the media is lazy and, whether they want to admit it or not, loves to post the same clickbaity BS you see on Daily Hive or Narcity. Tax revolts are sexy and the media will never turn down a story that tries to kneecap the government even when they have nothing to do with the story or didn't do anything wrong

Lather, rinse, repeat.

See also: Jordan Bateman.

[Trainguy]

Paid $1.16 / L last night in Langley with card discounts.

Now that's more like it!!

[MIPS]

Originally Posted by Trainguy

Paid $1.16 / L last night in Langley with card discounts.

Now that's more like it!!

Gas prices in Metro Vancouver hit unusual summertime low

If there was ever a time to gas up, it’s right now.

Gas prices around the Lower Mainland have hit an unusual summertime low, dropping nearly 40-cents from April’s record high.
According to GasBuddy, average prices range around 140.7 cents/litre. Some users say several stations around Metro Vancouver have posted prices of 128.9 cents/litre or lower.
It’s an out-of-place, but very welcome drop, in a year that Metro Vancouver saw the highest gas prices in North America, reaching up to 172.9 cents/litre.

Keep in mind, British Columbia also saw an increase in the province’s carbon tax rate, as well as a shift to a more expensive, summer blend of gasoline.
-https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/gas-prices-metro-vancouver-low-2019

Yes I know someone's gonna come out with a statistical remark or a report indicating something about production, international supplies or something but looking at this from the optics of the average person. Does it not look super suspicious that the complaints about high prices is followed by a government inquiry and by chance the price of gas suddenly plummets?

[s211]

Originally Posted by MIPS

Does it not look super suspicious that the complaints about high prices is followed by a government inquiry and by chance the price of gas suddenly plummets?

No, it doesn't look suspicious. Not unless the tinfoil hat's getting twitchy.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by s211

No, it doesn't look suspicious. Not unless the tinfoil hat's getting twitchy.

So what's the explanation? Supply and Demand?

[VancouverOfTheFuture]

yeah, no way its suspicious. why would prices lower with a government enquiry and all the news about it recently. nahh its just normal, 100% completely normal to be this lower during the summer time high.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture

yeah, no way its suspicious. why would prices lower with a government enquiry and all the news about it recently. nahh its just normal, 100% completely normal to be this lower during the summer time high.

As mentioned before, it's because 6 major refineries along the US West Coast had either planned or unexpected shut downs due to fires and explosions at about the same time:

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

There's insufficient supply along the entire West Coast of North America, so if something happens to upset the balance, such as a refinery shutdown, it causes prices to spike rapidly.

Back in March, the Philips 66 refinery near Los Angeles, California shut down due to a fire at the refinery. That refinery had a capacity of about 139,000 barrels a day, which makes it a fairly large refinery along the entire Western US.

Adding to the chaos was that there was also another fire and explosion at the Exxon Baytown, Texas refinery at about the same time which can process 560,500 b/d.

Also, in April, a number of Californian refineries shut down due to planned maintenance or mechanical breakdowns; those included:

• Chevron El Segundo refinery (290,500 b/d); maintenance
• Marathon Los Angeles refinery (383,000 b/d); maintenance
• Valero Wilmington refinery (87,000 b/d); breakdown
• Chevron Richmond refinery (260,000 b/d); breakdowns causing heavy flaring
• Valero Benicia refinery (149,000 b/d); breakdown leading to heavy maintenance

Adding to the issues was that refineries were also switching from the winter-blend to the summer blend; causing disruptions in supply to allow for the switch over to occur.

These refineries are now back up and running, meaning supplies of refined fuel have stabilized, causing prices to drop. Coupled with a depressed price for crude oil, this has pushed gas prices back down from their highs earlier this year.

Normally, you don't see this many refineries go down at about the same time; maintenance work is usually carefully planned to ensure that the shutdown does not occur when other nearby refineries are shut down to ensure a steady flow of product.

These simultaneous shut downs caused a severe price spike all along the entire West Coast of North America, as everyone struggled to secure supply from other regions. I believe even California was importing gasoline from Asia at one point because of all of this.

Most of these refineries are now back up and running at either full capacity, or at least partial capacity, and as a result, prices have come down.

[WestCoastEcho]

On a related note that could cause a general price spike for most of North America: the Girard Point refinery in Philadelphia (capacity of 335,000 b/d) had a explosion and fire earlier today:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/refinery-ex...solutions-today-2019-06-21-live-updates/

A fire at the largest oil refinery on the East Coast turned the early morning sky a bright orange and yellow and awakened startled residents with explosions that shook homes Friday. The fire broke out at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining Complex around 4 a.m., spokeswoman Cherice Corley said.

By 9 a.m., emergency workers were still trying to control the fire, said Corley. A shelter-in-place order for nearby residents was lifted, and roads around the complex were reopened to traffic, Corley said.

There are four confirmed injuries, all minor, that were treated on site. Jonathan Triboletti saw the blaze on a freeway while heading to the airport and posted a video to Twitter of a huge fireball shooting into the sky.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

On a related note that could cause a general price spike for most of North America: the Girard Point refinery in Philadelphia (capacity of 335,000 b/d) had a explosion and fire earlier today:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/refinery-ex...solutions-today-2019-06-21-live-updates/

Wow I hope everyone is ok.

That being said, my next car I hope will be an electric one.




https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/massive-fire-philadelphia-refinery-1.5184869

[s211]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

As mentioned before, it's because 6 major refineries along the US West Coast had either planned or unexpected shut downs due to fires and explosions at about the same time:



These simultaneous shut downs caused a severe price spike all along the entire West Coast of North America, as everyone struggled to secure supply from other regions. I believe even California was importing gasoline from Asia at one point because of all of this.

Most of these refineries are now back up and running at either full capacity, or at least partial capacity, and as a result, prices have come down.

Heresy! We all know that prices fell because of the BC government's limited-scope-inquiry.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by s211

Heresy! We all know that prices fell because of the BC government's limited-scope-inquiry.

You don't have to have much tinfoil in your hat to see that once there's increased media and public scrutiny on the market, suddenly prices ease dramatically, in what is traditionally "price increase season".

[s211]

I find it amusing that people think that the decline in fuel prices is somehow isolated to BC. I'm sure those same people will now somehow link the BC government's inquest with falling prices in Alberta, that have also declined significantly in the past month or so. And now I suppose Alberta should say thank you to BC?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by s211

I find it amusing that people think that the decline in fuel prices is somehow isolated to BC. I'm sure those same people will now somehow link the BC government's inquest with falling prices in Alberta, that have also declined significantly in the past month or so. And now I suppose Alberta should say thank you to BC?

Well we did receive a lot of excuses on the way up why this was a unique to BC problem...

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

Wow I hope everyone is ok.

That being said, my next car I hope will be an electric one.




https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/massive-fire-philadelphia-refinery-1.5184869

Major damage to the refinery, with one unit being assessed as being destroyed:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-r...-destroyed-in-fire-sources-idUSKCN1TO0SZ

(Reuters) - The alkylation unit involved in a massive fire on Friday at Philadelphia Energy Solutions Inc’s oil refinery has been completely destroyed, which will hamper the supply of gasoline from the U.S. East Coast’s largest refinery, sources familiar with the matter said on Sunday.

The destruction of the unit, coupled with damage from the fire that ripped through the 335,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) refining complex, could force the 200,000 bpd Girard Point section of the two-section complex to remain shut for an extended period.

Major units in the Point Breeze section of the plant were also shut down due to unrelated repairs, sources said.

Even when the Girard Point section restarts, it will run at reduced rates due to the loss of the alkylation unit, two sources told Reuters on Sunday.

It could take several years for the company to rebuild the unit.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Well we did receive a lot of excuses on the way up why this was a unique to BC problem...

Because BC government policy and taxation just amplified the price spike, along with government intransigence on the Trans Mountain file, which would have helped provide relief by providing more cheaper fuel supply to plug the shortage.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

Because BC government policy and taxation just amplified the price spike, along with government intransigence on the Trans Mountain file, which would have helped provide relief by providing more cheaper fuel supply to plug the shortage.

How does a 2-3 week price spike have anything to do with a multi-year several billion dollar pipeline expansion?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

How does a 2-3 week price spike have anything to do with a multi-year several billion dollar pipeline expansion?

It does, it just does.

Meanwhile, in a retrograde move BC just reduced its EV subsidy to $3k from $5k and lowered the cap to $55k for the vehicle. I don't mind the cap, but reducing the subsidy makes them look like hypocrites.

Maybe it has been too sucessful. I see the Tesla store on West 4th has removed all but one car from the showroom and replaced it with a ton of customer stations, the place was packed last week.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It does, it just does.

Meanwhile, in a retrograde move BC just reduced its EV subsidy to $3k from $5k and lowered the cap to $55k for the vehicle. I don't mind the cap, but reducing the subsidy makes them look like hypocrites.

Maybe it has been too sucessful. I see the Tesla store on West 4th has removed all but one car from the showroom and replaced it with a ton of customer stations, the place was packed last week.

Dumb move. What, now we're doing too well on climate action suddenly? For a government that plans to ban fossil fuel cars in the future, this is pretty hypocritical.

It's one thing to take that money and move it to another emissions reducing subsidy, but to just cut it entirely...

What happens if/when the Cons win in Oct and remove the federal $5k rebate?