Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

Sales were up 44% in May and the market is showing signs of a recovery. We’ve likely passed the bottom of the market and are now on the incline. Look around vancouver and you’ll see lots of sold signs. Sales to listings ratio 20%+ for condos which is a sign of a strong market. Even houses at 14% which means prices won’t be decreasing anymore.

I don't know if you're genuinely uninformed, believing some hype, or just trying to convince yourself and others. The market is sliding, continually, and will continue to slide for months and possibly years.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

Sales were down 29.1% in April 2019 from April 2018.
Sales were down 6.9% in May 2019 from May 2018.

Seriously this is a massive increase from the trend of sales being down 40ish% from last year.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I don't know if you're genuinely uninformed, believing some hype, or just trying to convince yourself and others. The market is sliding, continually, and will continue to slide for months and possibly years.

The market's not dead!!!

[IMG]mp by whatnextyvr, on Flickr[/IMG]
And I'm not a realtor!

[retro_orange]

As housing is now regularly selling anywhere from 10-40% below the assessment value there is no indication that the bottom is anywhere in sight. You can start saying it's rebounding when housing starts selling above the assessed value year over year. Until then, it's just speculation.

[rofina]

Peak:---------------Recovery:-----------Duration:
May, 1981----------June, 1988----------7 years
January, 1995------January, 2003------8 years

The bottom coming at the mid point of each, before priced started trending up. I didn't include 2008, it was really too brief. That's it for corrections in Van RE going back to the 1970's.

This go round prices peaked different in different sectors. SFH sometime in 2016, condos and town-homes not until early 2018.

If past is any indicator we could be in for another year and a half-ish of declines before market picks up on the price front.

That would bring it to another roughly 7 year cycle.

[misher]

Originally Posted by rofina

Peak:---------------Recovery:-----------Duration:
May, 1981----------June, 1988----------7 years
January, 1995------January, 2003------8 years

The bottom coming at the mid point of each, before priced started trending up. I didn't include 2008, it was really too brief. That's it for corrections in Van RE going back to the 1970's.

This go round prices peaked different in different sectors. SFH sometime in 2016, condos and town-homes not until early 2018.

If past is any indicator we could be in for another year and a half-ish of declines before market picks up on the price front.

That would bring it to another roughly 7 year cycle.

Those downturns weren't policy induced though. Its hard to see this as history repeating when the last downturns were accompanied by an economic downturn.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by misher

Those downturns weren't policy induced though. Its hard to see this as history repeating when the last downturns were accompanied by an economic downturn.

1995 was similar - it was accompanied by an exodus of Hong Kong money.

Fears of the handover is partially what drove the market up into 1995.

This is similar to today atmosphere of taxing and preventing the flows of foreign capital.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by rofina

1995 was similar - it was accompanied by an exodus of Hong Kong money.

Fears of the handover is partially what drove the market up into 1995.

This is similar to today atmosphere of taxing and preventing the flows of foreign capital.

Maybe Misher should just hold his properties until 2037 when all the "canadians" in HK realize "one country, two systems" is coming to an end. Though with the proposed extradition treaty between HK and China now, some might already be a little nervous.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by rofina

Peak:---------------Recovery:-----------Duration:
May, 1981----------June, 1988----------7 years
January, 1995------January, 2003------8 years

The bottom coming at the mid point of each, before priced started trending up. I didn't include 2008, it was really too brief. That's it for corrections in Van RE going back to the 1970's.

This go round prices peaked different in different sectors. SFH sometime in 2016, condos and town-homes not until early 2018.

If past is any indicator we could be in for another year and a half-ish of declines before market picks up on the price front.

That would bring it to another roughly 7 year cycle.

SFH peaked first in July 2016, then dropped for six months and slightly recovered for another eight months. The second peak was in September 2017, and it's been steadily downhill from there. So far we've seen SFH drop $195,000 (12.1%) from that second peak.

Condos peaked in June 2018, dropped $40,000 (5.7%) in six months, and been up and down a bit so far this year - in May they were the same as in December 2018.

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Maybe Misher should just hold his properties until 2037 when all the "canadians" in HK realize "one country, two systems" is coming to an end. Though with the proposed extradition treaty between HK and China now, some might already be a little nervous.

Bahahahaha haha haha ha. I get it, you put the word "Canadians" in quotation marks because there's no way in hell a real white red-blooded Canadian would reside in one of the premier financial centres of the world. Of course they must all be Chinamen pretending to be fake Canadians. Do you even listen to yourself?

[misher]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

Bahahahaha haha haha ha. I get it, you put the word "Canadians" in quotation marks because there's no way in hell a real white red-blooded Canadian would reside in one of the premier financial centres of the world. Of course they must all be Chinamen pretending to be fake Canadians. Do you even listen to yourself?

HK is the largest Canadian expat community in the world at 300,000+. It is a massive international business center. Many Canadians were stationed there while it was a British colony, I believe they had a regiment of Highlanders at one point who defended against the Japanese. Many Commonwealth subjects fled to Canada when Britain left, many returned after China didn’t go crazy. Many in BC moved there when the economy collapsed and unemployment skyrocketed around the millennium.

Whatnext is completely right that at the rate things are going in HK it’s likely many will move back to Canada. Many in HK are fearful of what’s happpening. I don’t think it’s important what skin color a Canadian is but I understand to a sinophobic (who I shall not name) it is very relevant. And btw whatnext I have great news for you, it looks like China isn’t waiting for 2037 so many HK residents Canadian and foreign are discussing fleeing. And of course what city is very similar to HK, is safe, is close, already has a large HK community, and is a great place to live.

[CivicBlues]

Yeah, I have many Canadian friends who moved to HK in adulthood to pursue business opportunities. The fact that some are of Chinese descent is incidental and it’s troubling to think many people think of them as quote unquote “Canadians” based solely on their ethnicity and current residence. White Canadians who move to the US and keep their citizenship are never afforded that level of suspicion.

Whatnext is wracking his brain right now trying to reconcile whether or not he wants to be proven right that big scary China will clamp down on HK’s freedoms and the fact that by being right it will result in thousands more of the wrong type of “Canadians” returning home with buckets of skills and cash to compete with “real” Canadians.

[misher]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

Yeah, I have many Canadian friends who moved to HK in adulthood to pursue business opportunities. The fact that some are of Chinese descent is incidental and it’s troubling to think many people think of them as quote unquote “Canadians” based solely on their ethnicity and current residence. White Canadians who move to the US and keep their citizenship are never afforded that level of suspicion.

Whatnext is wracking his brain right now trying to reconcile whether or not he wants to be proven right that big scary China will clamp down on HK’s freedoms and the fact that by being right it will result in thousands more of the wrong type of “Canadians” returning home with buckets of skills and cash to compete with “real” Canadians.

Haha yep. Our housing seems really cheap compared to HK’s and you have a bunch of people who have never had the chance of owning a house.

Seriously though 300,000 is more than the population of Richmond and there all likely much wealthier than the average Canadian. I can’t imagine how insane our real estate market would go if they return.

[nds88]

The Americans will likely be cutting rates soon. Canada will follow. The party will start back up soon

[Changing City]

While we're waiting for the party to start up again, some of the guests are going home (for a while). Ledingham McAllister is putting on hold the launch of pre-sales for three high-rise, transit-hub condo towers in Burnaby and Coquitlam, and is considering a pause on a fourth. (Sydney, Highpoint, Azure ranging from 20 to over 50 storeys).

"McAllister pointed to a dramatic slow-down in general pre-sales, beginning last October, and estimates sales volumes have dropped by about 70 per cent"

The Vancouver Sun story talked to a number of developers about the slowdown in sales (which means they struggle to get to the needed proportion committed to move on to construction). It suggests that investors aren't buying any more (as prices aren't going up), and owner occupier demand isn't strong enough (and those buyers are also wary of potentially lower values).

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by nds88

The Americans will likely be cutting rates soon. Canada will follow. The party will start back up soon

Lower rates will do nothing to revive much of the SFH market, it is priced out of reach of the market. Likewise it won't help with 2 bed condos priced at $1.2 million. If it has any effect it will be in suburban multifamily.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Changing City

While we're waiting for the party to start up again, some of the guests are going home (for a while). Ledingham McAllister is putting on hold the launch of pre-sales for three high-rise, transit-hub condo towers in Burnaby and Coquitlam, and is considering a pause on a fourth. (Sydney, Highpoint, Azure ranging from 20 to over 50 storeys).

"McAllister pointed to a dramatic slow-down in general pre-sales, beginning last October, and estimates sales volumes have dropped by about 70 per cent"

The Vancouver Sun story talked to a number of developers about the slowdown in sales (which means they struggle to get to the needed proportion committed to move on to construction). It suggests that investors aren't buying any more (as prices aren't going up), and owner occupier demand isn't strong enough (and those buyers are also wary of potentially lower values).

The supply cuts have been rapid. Its good for the market as far as asset prices are concerned.

I don't think many people understand the function that investors played in this markets ability to bring units forward. The investors were used as financiers. Without their appetite and a declining market, I doubt many developers will be willing to build on spec - particularly given the costs that are baked in via CAC's and construction costs.

That being said, Ledmac said they are cancelling approximately $1.2 billion in work - that's a lot less money to go around for the trades. Could result in some cost savings on the construction front.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by rofina

The supply cuts have been rapid. Its good for the market as far as asset prices are concerned.

I don't think many people understand the function that investors played in this markets ability to bring units forward. The investors were used as financiers. Without their appetite and a declining market, I doubt many developers will be willing to build on spec - particularly given the costs that are baked in via CAC's and construction costs.

That being said, Ledmac said they are cancelling approximately $1.2 billion in work - that's a lot less money to go around for the trades. Could result in some cost savings on the construction front.

The downside is the price per unit was bid up to ridiuclous levels, trades got greedy as did landsellers.

Have people somehow forgot that pre-sales still were built from 1990-2005 without massive help from external money?

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The downside is the price per unit was bid up to ridiuclous levels, trades got greedy as did landsellers.

Have people somehow forgot that pre-sales still were built from 1990-2005 without massive help from external money?

Investment is generally external. Development in the 1990-2005 period was largely financed with external money. You’ve been pushing that all real estate here is purchased using foreign money, are you now arguing that locals have lots of money?



A lot of our rental housing from the 70’s to 90’s was built using federal money which I would say is external money.

https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/...A-BC-SPARC-Unpacking-Housing-Numbers.pdf

[Jalapeño Chips]

Originally Posted by misher

Investment is generally external. Development in the 1990-2005 period was largely financed with external money. You’ve been pushing that all real estate here is purchased using foreign money, are you now arguing that locals have lots of money?



A lot of our rental housing from the 70’s to 90’s was built using federal money which I would say is external money.

https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/...A-BC-SPARC-Unpacking-Housing-Numbers.pdf

WTF are you talking about? Absolutely no market rental housing was built with federal money. Social housing is not market rental, unless your brain is so dense, you can't comprehend simple English, then it might be. Plus why do you keep spewing such 🞵🞵🞵🞵 and lies? Seriously.You don't sound like a patriotic Canadian, what's your problem?