Salt Lake City: Official Development News Thread - Part 5

[bob rulz]

According to the Census Bureau estimates, Salt Lake City only added 21 people. The article speculates that could be due to an overestimation from last year, but it still seems improbable to me. Can't wait for real census numbers.

[DanskeUtahn]

Originally Posted by delts145

Difficulties finding construction labor among the Anglo workforce today reminds me of the same issues faced in the agricultural industry a couple of decades ago. My parents had a large ranch, and it was almost impossible to find willing labor among Anglo adults or even high school Anglo's. I see the same issue in the construction industry today, at least here in Los Angeles. I imagine much the same is occurring at the Wasatch Front. Skilled labor Trades in general are far more popular among the Hispanic workforce. Many of you have probably noticed that much of the salvation of the Wasatch Front's future infrastructure growth is becoming increasingly dependent on skilled Hispanic labor.

Yeah that is true, I am a Finish Carpenter/ Framer and we are in high demand! All of the European guys are retiring and being replaced by Hispanic workers and they do a great job! On most jobsites I am the only white guy, guess I should learn some Spanish. If the Wasatch Front wants to catch up on it's housing shortage then we need thousands of more skilled construction workers. But on the other hand I love being able to bid high and get what I want.

[s.p.hansen]

Originally Posted by DanskeUtahn

Yeah that is true, I am a Finish Carpenter/ Framer and we are in high demand! All of the European guys are retiring and being replaced by Hispanic workers and they do a great job! On most jobsites I am the only white guy, guess I should learn some Spanish. If the Wasatch Front wants to catch up on it's housing shortage then we need thousands of more skilled construction workers. But on the other hand I love being able to bid high and get what I want.

I’m against wage slavery. Short labor supply is good; it drives up wages. This myth of the lazy White person is a lie perpetuated by Liberals on the Left and Right Wing. As wages go up so will participation in the workforce.

[s.p.hansen]

Originally Posted by bob rulz

According to the Census Bureau estimates, Salt Lake City only added 21 people. The article speculates that could be due to an overestimation from last year, but it still seems improbable to me. Can't wait for real census numbers.

You’re gonna need to cite that. From what I’ve seen its added 5,000 plus people each year over the last two years. West Valley lost 500 people last year...

[s.p.hansen]

Originally Posted by delts145

Difficulties finding construction labor among the Anglo workforce today reminds me of the same issues faced in the agricultural industry a couple of decades ago. My parents had a large ranch, and it was almost impossible to find willing labor among Anglo adults or even high school Anglo's. I see the same issue in the construction industry today, at least here in Los Angeles. I imagine much the same is occurring at the Wasatch Front. Skilled labor Trades in general are far more popular among the Hispanic workforce. Many of you have probably noticed that much of the salvation of the Wasatch Front's future infrastructure growth is becoming increasingly dependent on skilled Hispanic labor.

Actually, farmers were super greedy and basically used Mexicans to avoid paying more or to pay less. California was ruined by this greed as it transformed its demographics and became a state without a middle class with rich people and their slave Latinos.

What’s more, Mexicans don’t just bust their asses farming until they die. They work the fields for a few years and then drive down wages in other fields like construction. Despite inflation, the cost of painting interiors in Utah has dropped by half because it was totally replaced by Latinos. Libertarians like the Koch Bros and Liberals on the Left invent stories to make this destruction of wages sound moral. White collar people who are greedy like these morality tales.

[Stenar]

Originally Posted by Marvland

... I just hope Rio Tinto pulls their heads out and builds theirs soon. Speaking of, they scrapped their west side master plan in the downturn. Any word on Rio Tinto's real estate arm?

Granite School District is building a new Cyprus High on Kennecott Land south of the currently developed part of Magna and the rumors are that a new housing development will go up around it. I'm guessing (hoping) that Rio Tinto is developing it.

[Orlando]

I just posted my 3,000th post. Yay me!

[ctobsl]

Originally Posted by Orlando

I just posted my 3,000th post. Yay me!

[RC14]

Congratulations Orlando!

[bob rulz]

Originally Posted by s.p.hansen

You’re gonna need to cite that. From what I’ve seen its added 5,000 plus people each year over the last two years. West Valley lost 500 people last year...

This is about the newest estimates that were just released today. I was going to say that it was in the article delts posted, but apparently it was only mentioned in the SLTrib article and not the Deseret News one.

So here you go:
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

Salt Lake City's population according to these estimates increased by just 21 people after increasing by 7,000 last year. The speculation is that since it counts housing units that have been approved for construction but haven't been occupied yet, that the estimates last year were too high and so it made it look like barely any increase this year. I still find it hard to believe, but hey, we'll know for sure in a couple of years.

Interesting note though is that a lot of Utah County cities lost a little bit of population in the estimate (Provo, Orem, Alpine, Springville, Cedar Hills, and Pleasant Grove at least). I wonder if that has anything to do with the ridiculous growth in Vineyard drawing people away from those areas? Or if it's just statistical noise.

On a side note, do we really need these political posts in here? Would prefer to keep political stuff firmly rooted in relevant, local issues, and as clearly factual as possible. Opinionated political posts are a good way to turn this topic into a cesspool, which we've been good at avoiding for a while.

[jedikermit]

Originally Posted by Stenar

Granite High School is building a new Cyprus High on Kennecott Land south of the currently developed part of Magna and the rumors are that a new housing development will go up around it. I'm guessing (hoping) that Rio Tinto is developing it.

Correct. I teach at Cyprus HS -- we should be moving into the new building 2021 or 2022. They're clearing a lot of land around the site (construction hasn't started on the actual school yet, still in the design process), and the reason they're building it where they are (~ 8400 W 4100 S) is that's where all of the future housing is going to be built. Also it was cheaper than doing a tear down and build on the same site as they keep the school open during construction.

I'm sad that Cyprus will be leaving historic Magna for where it's going...hopefully they'll be able to maintain their roots and connection to it.

FYI Granite District is also building a new Skyline HS at the same time (if they don't do a West Side and East Side school at the same time, patrons will lose their shiiiit), and that one they're building on the existing football field and parking lot while classes continue in the existing building. Both schools also need replacing for safety issues, so uh...yeah. That's all I got.

I don't have more information about the housing going up around Future Cyprus, but can confirm that they're moving ahead with developing Kennecott land on that part of the Oquirrh foothills at least.

[delts145]

Originally Posted by Orlando

I just posted my 3,000th post. Yay me!

Yay You!!!...And here's to 3,000 more...

[Marvland]

Found this discussion very interesting. A bunch of players talking about commercial real estate and where it's headed. Non-native money, the shift of momentum towards downtown, the future of the west side etc. Been really enjoying the quality of content at Utah Business mag. Good juice:

https://www.utahbusiness.com/commercial-real-estate-roundtable/

[Orlando]

Originally Posted by Marvland

Found this discussion very interesting. A bunch of players talking about commercial real estate and where it's headed. Non-native money, the shift of momentum towards downtown, the future of the west side etc. Been really enjoying the quality of content at Utah Business mag. Good juice:

https://www.utahbusiness.com/commercial-real-estate-roundtable/

This! This is what's frustrating to me. These guys( Jordan Wall and Daniel Thomas) don't get downtown. They need to understand the potential, otherwise it's following the status quo of building in sprawland Lehi. We've got to change their mentality.

Jordan Wall | Senior Executive Vice President | Colliers International

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve toured with a tenant that’s coming from out-of-state that says, “I want to be downtown.” And I’ll say, “Okay. Let’s go downtown, but all the action is going to be south valley and that’s where you want to be.” But they keep pushing, I want to be downtown, I want to be downtown. And then we’ll take them downtown and eventually, 9 times out of 10, the lease will be done in Sandy, Draper, Utah County. The action is not downtown. It’s South Valley, it’s Utah County.

Daniel Thomas | Regional Partner | St. John Properties

The culture of the people in Salt Lake City is they value family and recreation. And so, that’s why you’ll see different pockets that are so popular in the suburbs, very different from a lot of the other markets [outside investors] are used to. Many of them will come in and say, “I only want to buy downtown.” And I’ll say, “Okay, then you’re going to have very few opportunities. Let me show you what’s going on.” And afterwards they’ll look at the suburbs and they’ll say, “Can I buy between Sandy and Lehi?”

Our culture is not a downtown culture. And we’re starting to see signs of that change primarily because of out-of-state companies bringing people in that really like to live downtown and all of the downtown housing will make a dramatic difference in that.

[Marvland]

Originally Posted by Orlando

This! This is what's frustrating to me. These guys( Jordan Wall and Daniel Thomas) don't get downtown. They need to understand the potential, otherwise it's following the status quo of building in sprawland Lehi. We've got to change their mentality.

I agree. That mindset is really counterproductive and just plain wrong. Otherwise, downtown wouldn't be smashing retail revenue records. I get it, from a brokerage perspective, the low hanging fruit is south valley because that's where all of the cheap land was. That's going away fast. There is always a disconnect between certain types of brokerage and the equity level businesses. Almost all of the feedback from the major players that I hear, you know the actual tech businesses not the brokers, is that they can no longer recruit from out of state to Lehi. Jig is up. People want more than Chipotle.

Notable was the commentary from Andy Moffit. They should write books about what they are pulling off at the Gateway. Guys like him get it.

[delts145]

I agree, those guys opinions are seriously slanted in one biased direction, but they're not completely wrong, just partially.

There are hundreds if not thousands of tech transplants who are living Downtown and commuting via Front Runner to the Silicon Slopes. They have high paying jobs and their luxury apartments in places like Hardware Village are attractively priced when compared to their former homes in places like the West or East Coasts. Additionally, while there are many single adults who would prefer to live in an apartment downtown, there are also many who prefer living in a large shared, very attractive house. I know because I did it myself, as did many of my friends.

One thing that continues to be feasible about the Wasatch Front and Lehi in particular is that it is a comparitively easy commute from Provo and Salt Lake City when matched against many of the other top fifty metros. While there are autoscentric trouble spots that are in the throws of catching up with the hyper growth, the sporadic bottlenecks are still nothing compared to much of what I've seen on the West Coast. The Wasatch Front is very highly rated when it comes to being pro active with its infrastructure

Also, for the foreseeable future there will continue to be a plentiful supply of young marrieds who prefer to live in places like Riverton, Highland, Saratoga Springs and Draper, etc. Hence, the gig is definitely not over with when it comes to Lehi. If anything, Lehi will only continue to grow denser and higher. in the coming decades.

I'm not worried the least little bit about Salt Lake's future prospects, even with a few narrow minded cheerleaders like the two quoted in the article. Just like you Marv, I'm positive that Downtown Salt Lake City and it's MSA/CSA will both continue to grow, densify and co-exist beautifully. Like you, I'm very excited about Downtown Salt Lake's future.

[Orlando]

Delts,
I think you kind of get it, but kind of don't. L.A. is not the model we should be following. ( no offense. I appreciate your posts) All that building down there in Lehi is stand alone office parks that take away from a vibrant urban walkable downtown. And, they contribute to more traffic and car pollution, and more roads, and more sprawl. Seattle gets it. Silicon Valley tech companies don't get it.

Also, when you say this

I'm not worried the least little bit about Salt Lake's future prospects, even with a few narrow minded cheerleaders like the two quoted in the article. I'm positive that Downtown Salt Lake City and it's MSA/CSA will both continue to grow, densify and co-exist beautifully.

I am worried, because all of that effort is going to the south valley and building up Lehi, when it should be building up downtown Salt Lake. Lehi has no urban walkable masterplan/framework. It's all highways and roads with open land for people to develop stand-alone buildings. There's no walkability. There's no active street live. There's no "vibrancy". Those guys are saying that downtown SLC isn't very vibrant, and all the action is in the south valley. These guys are the problem. These guys are feeding the bad urban design sprawl stuff. They need to be educated. These guys are just like much of my family in Utah, and I can't say much to them when they choose to buy a house way out in yonder land and drive long distances to work.

[delts145]

Come'on Orlando, Of course I get it. However, I don't have a problem looking at the long game. Those office parks are being set up so as to become much denser as the land availability dwindles and the growth/economy demands. They will be redeveloped many times over, probably sooner than expected. Parking lots will become parking structures, just as combustion engines will continue to be replaced by much cleaner modes of auto transport, and mass transit will continue to make advances along the Wasatch Front.

I continue to see the Wasatch Front developing at the same level as the new and wiser Los Angeles. I continue to be amazed at how geographically similar Salt Lake City is to Los Angeles. Salt Lake City is learning from L.A.'s past mistakes and copying much of the right directions L.A. is now pursuing..

Probably some of it's just media hype, but the national attention that Seattle and San Francisco have been getting lately for a large variety of negative issues dealing with growth are hardly painting a picture of paradise. The report that I saw this morning made Downtown Seattle look as if its right on the heals of some of San Fran's most egregious challenges, including downtown filth, retail flight, and especially the alarming growth of homelessness. I'm sure that Seattle and hopefully the West Coast in general will meet their own challenges, but there's no need to hype Seattle over Salt Lake City. Many of us prefer Salt Lake. I use to conduct a boat load of business for my parents in Seattle, and there are many cities that I personally would prefer to live in over Seattle. That said, Seattle is a great place, and I'm happy for you that you like it there. Obviously many people do, great for them.

[Makid]

I think this perception is changing and there is some effort to redirect it. From the round table link:

Jim Tozer | Managing Director, New York | Vectra Management Group

Downtown should be a much more vibrant, regional center, but it’s not. We have under developed the attraction to downtown Salt Lake City and we’ve got transportation and lifestyle that’s competitive with any other location. It would be useful for us as the real estate community and the ones trying to provide development here that we think and encourage the attraction of a regional headquarters to Salt Lake City, and other things will follow from that.

I bolded the section that is pertinent.

I know that there are people within SLC, SLCo, and a few other areas that are working to get a large company to downtown SLC. They all have various reasons from Transit Usage to helping with year round positive perceptions.

It is nice to know that there are some in the development arena that are also working on having this happen.

Additionally there is this last line:

Daniel Thomas | Regional Partner | St. John Properties

Our culture is not a downtown culture. And we’re starting to see signs of that change primarily because of out-of-state companies bringing people in that really like to live downtown and all of the downtown housing will make a dramatic difference in that.

This is something a few of us have said for a while regarding a catalyst for downtown growth. The renaissance of urban living has really only been going on since around 2012. Since that time, we have seen explosive growth in residential buildings downtown with heights increasing.

As we have added more residents, the demand has increased for more commercial growth. 111 first and now tower 8 with more planned around the city. There will be a compounding factor due to the growth that is occurring. Traffic will increase, this will cause more people to use transit. Transit improves slowly so some will move closer to the office to allow for more free time outside of work. This in turn creates demand for more housing which kicks off the cycle again.

With the vacancy rates for housing in SLC around 4%, the demand is there and units just can't come online fast enough. This problem won't change overnight.

As for Lehi and the PoM area. I doubt we will see anything taller than 12 stories. The land values aren't high enough to demand it and the planning is still auto-oriented. Additionally, many workers are pushing for a more urban experience. They want more places for lunch/dinner and something to do nearby after they leave the office.

It is hard to go out for a drink after work when the nearest bar is potentially miles away.

This is 1 big reason that commercial developments in SLC are trying to become tech focused. It provides incentives for companies to move or even open up additional locations where workers can find what they are looking for. So while we may still see tech campuses around the southern end of the SL Valley, we will continue to see a shift away from that environment to the urban environment of SLC.

I do expect that this shift and growth will accelerate over the next few years.

[delts145]

Thank you Makid. So much has changed so quickly in the past 10 years. Many things that forum members repeatedly said would never happen, have happened. I get it that some would like to see it happen over night, but the pace of urban density development downtown just keeps picking up the pace. What we once thought exciting a few years ago has now become blahzay for many.