US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

I can't see how we wouldn't pass 1 million by 2020 I mean we are pretty close now.

I thought we already passed it. Weird.

[drummer]

It's definitely coming soon if not already.

[wwmiv]

Has anyone noticed that the ACS estimates for 2017 by the census on American Fact Finder have changed without any explanation as to why they were changed and what caused the change? I doubt that they would have released the revised 2017 estimates earlier than the current release schedule (which are usually released in tandem with the new yearly estimates, in this case the estimate for July 1, 2018 should be released some time in April:

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

Austin's city population is now listed as 916,906.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml

Travis county is now listed as 1,176,584 rather than 1,226,698. Bastrop, Caldwell, and Hays are also at new lower estimates, etc.

With the revised (and of unknown origin) estimates, the Austin metropolitan area went from 2,115,827 down to 2,000,590.

The same happened to San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, and almost everywhere in Texas.

In the MSA counties of the Central Texas I-35 corridor from the Waco MSA to San Antonio MSA, these are the changes:

#1 - Name
#2 - 2010 Census
#3 - 2017 (new, currently appearing on Fact Finder)
#4 - 2017 (old, still on Wikipedia, but validity checked from my own copies of previous downloads of the dataset from American Fact Finder)
#5 - % growth from 2010 (new numbers)
#6 - % growth from 2010 (old numbers)
#7 - # diff (new-old)
#8 - % diff. ((new-old)/old)*100

Just FYI: the suburbs rows are all MSA counties' sum population minus the MSA anchor city's population.

Bastrop 74171 80306 84761 8.271426838 14.27781748 -4455 -5.255954979
Caldwell 38066 40544 42338 6.50974623 11.22261336 -1794 -4.237328169
Hays 157107 194843 214485 24.01929895 36.52160629 -19642 -9.157749959
Travis 1024266 1176584 1226698 14.87094173 19.76361609 -50114 -4.085276083
Williamson 422679 508313 547545 20.25981892 29.541567 -39232 -7.16507319

Austin 790390 916906 950715 16.00678146 20.28429003 -33809 -3.556165623
Austin Suburbs 925899 1083684 1165112 17.04127556 25.8357553 -81428 -6.988856007
Austin MSA 1716289 2000590 2115827 16.56486757 23.27917967 -115237 -5.446428276

Atascosa 44911 48139 48981 7.187548707 9.062367794 -842 -1.719033911
Bandera 20485 21316 22351 4.0566268 9.109104223 -1035 -4.630665295
Bexar 1714773 1892004 1958578 10.33553712 14.21791689 -66574 -3.399098734
Comal 108472 129100 141009 19.01688915 29.99575927 -11909 -8.445560212
Guadalupe 131533 150889 159,659 14.71569872 21.38322702 -8770 -5.492956864
Kendall 33410 40306 44026 20.64052679 31.77491769 -3720 -8.449552537
Medina 46006 48548 50006 5.525366257 8.694518106 -1458 -2.915650122
Wilson 42918 47205 49304 9.988815881 14.87953772 -2099 -4.257261074

San Antonio 1327407 1461623 1511946 10.1111415 13.90221688 -50323 -3.328359611
San Antonio Suburbs 815101 915884 961968 12.36447998 18.01825786 -46084 -4.790595945
San Antonio MSA 2142508 2377507 2473914 10.96840712 15.46813361 -96407 -3.896942254

Bell 310235 336506 340411 8.468096765 9.726819991 -3905 -1.147142719
Coryell 75388 75818 74686 0.570382554 -0.931182682 1132 1.515678976
Lampasas 19677 20473 20760 4.045332114 5.503887788 -287 -1.382466281

Killeen/Temple/Belton 405300 432797 435857 6.784357266 7.539353565 -3060 -0.702065127

McLennan 234906 245720 247934 4.603543545 5.546048207 -2214 -0.892979583
Falls 17866 17289 17273 -3.229598119 -3.3191537 16 0.092630116

Waco MSA 252772 263009 265207 4.049894767 4.919453104 -2198 -0.82878657

The changes seem to be random and don't seem to correspond at all to any variables I can think of that might have affected the validity of the old estimates and I can't see any particular political pattern either (I.E. is the Trump administration screwing with the numbers for political purposes? It doesn't seem like it to me). These also don't seem like the typical ACS estimates revisions. The % change is MUCH larger than is typical from the original estimate to the revised estimate for pretty much every jurisdiction I've checked, so I think we can definitely rule out that they've released the revised numbers uncharacteristically earlier than the subsequent years' estimates release and infer that something systematic is occurring on the ACS website.

In sum: WTF is going on?

[wwmiv]

The timing of this news report and the changes, however, is suspect:

https://www.leavenworthtimes.com/zz/news...zenship-data-from-dhs-before-2020-census

The data that Homeland Security would share with Census officials would include noncitizens’ full names and addresses, birth dates and places, as well as Social Security numbers and highly sensitive alien registration numbers, according to a document signed by the Census Bureau and obtained by AP.

Such a data dump would be apparently unprecedented and give the Census Bureau a view of immigrants’ citizenship status that is even more precise than what can be gathered in door-to-door canvassing, according to bureau research.

If they've received that data, that could partially explain the discrepancies... but only partially, given that Falls County (outside of Waco) actually increased from the old to new 2017 estimates by 16 and Coryell (Temple) increased by 1132.

[Armybrat]

Secretary of State David Whitley is now in charge of the US Census?

[The ATX]

The 2018 MSA population estimates will be released at the end of next week.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/population-metro-micro.html

[The ATX]

The new MSA numbers started coming out via media outlets around midnight. Real data is still scarce, but Austin appears to have been the fastest growing large Metro again 2017 to 2018.

EDIT:

The five-county Austin-Round Rock metro passed Kansas City for 30th largest metro area in the nation.

Last year, the Austin-Round Rock metro area gained 53,086 people — roughly 70% as a result of international and domestic migration — to bring the population to 2,168,316, or a 2.5% increase from 2017, the population estimates show.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20190418/...ing-in-nation-8-years-running-data-shows

[JoninATX]

2018 estimates are officially out.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/estimates-county-metro.html

[Novacek]

Jumped Kansas City into 30th place. Made up most of the ground on Cincinnati (only 22k back as of last year, possibly ahead of them by now). And no one relatively close behind us had as high a growth rate, so presumably increased our lead.

For metro/MSA numbers at least. Some both of the above are parts of CSAs (Austin's not).

After Cinci, we're probably not moving up over anyone else for a while. We're still ~60k behind LV, and only gained about 5k over them this year.
Looks like Pittsburgh actually shrank again, so we'll probably jump them before Sacremento.

[Novacek]

Made up about 9k on San Antonio last year. If that were to hold steady (it won't) we'd jump them in 39 years

If instead we maintain our most recent 2.5% growth rate and they maintain their 1.8% rate, we'd catch them in 21 years.

[KevinFromTexas]

Here are the Texas county population estimates (500K+) for July 1, 2018.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk#

Travis - 1,248,743, Williamson - 566,719, Hays - 222,631, Bastrop - 86,976, Caldwell - 43,247

Harris - 4,698,619
Dallas - 2,637,772
Tarrant - 2,084,931
Bexar - 1,986,049
Travis - 1,248,743
Collin - 1,005,146
Hildalgo - 865,939
Denton - 859,064
El Paso County - 840,758
Fort Bend - 787,858
Montgomery - 590,925
Williamson - 566,719

Texas - 28,701,845

[drummer]

Wow, I didn't realize Hidalgo County was that high. What's the current population of McAllen and the metro area down there? The Rio Grande Valley conglomerate metro area has always had a lot of growth, but I wasn't aware that that particular county was that close to a million.

[drummer]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk#

Travis - 1,248,743, Williamson - 566,719, Hays - 222,631, Bastrop - 86,976, Caldwell - 43,247

Adding Burnet County to the mix: 47,542

[KevinFromTexas]

When was Burnet added? I just saw on KXAN they included it in their metro map. I wasn't aware that happened.

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

When was Burnet added? I just saw on KXAN they included it in their metro map. I wasn't aware that happened.

It wasn't added to the Metro. KXAN broadcasts to the Hill Country and includes them in their news reports. But if it was added, we would be close to 2.3 million (rounded) in another year.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by smith_atx

Obviously these can be found. My point was that if Austin is to densify further, more of these units will hopefully be built in areas all around the city, not just downtown.

I was mistaken on The Avenue, I thought it would be units for sale.

I think for real densification, you need lots and lots of larger multi-family units suitable for raising a family. I'd love to see clusters of mid-rise/mid-market/street-oriented two and three bedroom complexes possibly built in family friendly communities of manageable size. I think there would be a decent market for such a product. The question is where can they be built that works to the benefit of the urban fabric. NIMBYS need to realize the value of such development. It is a tough sell.

[drummer]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

When was Burnet added? I just saw on KXAN they included it in their metro map. I wasn't aware that happened.

Originally Posted by The ATX

It wasn't added to the Metro. KXAN broadcasts to the Hill Country and includes them in their news reports. But if it was added, we would be close to 2.3 million (rounded) in another year.

I'm sorry for the confusion - I didn't mean to say that it was added to the metro. I was adding their numbers to the forum for the sake of satisfying my own curiosity - thought others might be interested also.

Burnet County is part of CAMPO but I don't believe it's considered part of the metro, as y'all said. However, its growth is and has been somewhat tied to Austin for years. Spicewood in particular is going to blow up along 71 all the way to Marble Falls/Horseshoe Bay. I also think we could see a lot of growth along 29 west of Liberty Hill (which is Williamson County) all the way to Betram and Burnet in the relatively near future.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Made up about 9k on San Antonio last year. If that were to hold steady (it won't) we'd jump them in 39 years

If instead we maintain our most recent 2.5% growth rate and they maintain their 1.8% rate, we'd catch them in 21 years.

It will be between 2030 and 2040 (more specifically, between 2033 & 2037).

[zrx299]

Hooray for out of control population growth (not just Austin but globally), endless suburban sprawl, and paving every inch of open space so John & Jane can live the 1952 version of the "American Dream".

None of this is sustainable on macro levels.
Thankfully I'll be dead before our full blown dystopian future comes to fruition. But whatever comes after Gen Z's kids... hooo boy, look out.

https://youtu.be/Mn5u4L5nxuc?t=50

Lewis Black says it best in one of his old stand-up routines talking about Atlanta (youtube link): "...at what point do you just say 'Hey! No more f*****s can live here.' ?"

[GoldenBoot]

It's interesting...the Census Bureau has estimated a slowdown in Austin MSA's growth. They estimate we have slowed over the last few years down to 2.5%. We were closer to 3.2% annually earlier this decade.

However, our median annualized growth is about 3.01%. Still pretty damn good (if you like growth).

Oh, the city may surpass the 1 million mark sometime between May & June this year.