YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion - Page 709

Johnny Aussie · #**14161** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 9:07 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rogie

You're right. 4% may give them a little breathing room to catch up with all the construction projects going on.

4% growth is a stable strong growth rate. In Australia the slow down in growth is even more pronounced.... 4% growth would be phenomenal.

Johnny Aussie · #**14162** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 11:06 AM**

Not really relevant to YVR anymore but WOW Air is done.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.bloo...ights-as-it-seeks-to-seal-financing-deal

https://wowair.com/travel-alert/

Hourglass · #**14163** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 4:03 PM**

What’s behind the decrease in seats to/from Asia? 7.3% is a pretty significant drop!

memememe76 · #**14164** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 5:34 PM**

China?

Canadian74 · #**14165** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 7:59 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpongeG

Is there a direct flight from Vancouver to Singapore?

A friend is going to Singapore next week and he said his flight is direct but I didn't know we had direct flights there.

No, there isn't. There is no nonstop, and there is no direct either (same plane with stop)

There will definitely be a stop and change of plane somewhere

nname · #**14166** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 8:27 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hourglass

What’s behind the decrease in seats to/from Asia? 7.3% is a pretty significant drop!

AC use smaller plane for PEK and PVG due to overcapacity
PR no longer route YYZ and JFK traffic through YVR
Rouge removal from AC meaning seat reduction for KIX and NGO (plus DUB)

SpongeG · #**14167** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 8:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Canadian74

No, there isn't. There is no nonstop, and there is no direct either (same plane with stop)

There will definitely be a stop and change of plane somewhere

yeah thats what I thought, I asked where he was stopping over and he said it was straight to singapore.

nname · #**14168** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 8:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well there are almost no carriers flying Vancouver --> Europe in January, so any little change is a big % difference.

Non daily service from KLM and AF, daily Lufthansa to Frankfurt and daily AC/BA to London.

The actual drop was 273 people. That's less than one flight. Could have even been a cancellation and people were routed through other Canadian airports so the PAX were recorded as domestic not International.

As you can see seats in 2019 are actually 2.6% lower than 2018, so I'm expecting flat to negative growth this summer internationally. AsiaPac in particular looks brutal with cuts all over.

It may also have to do with more direct service to Delhi? Maybe that 273 people choose to fly direct rather than transit through Europe

It will be interesting to see March and April number though..
would DEL-CPH-YVR count as Asia-Pacific or Europe?
would DEL-YVR-YYZ gives extra boost to Asia-Pacific and Domestic numbers?
MAX grounding would hurt numbers, but some will also provide a boost, like some of the YYC-OGG flights become one stop YYC-YVR-OGG
some misc international number might shift to domestic, for instance, CUN-YVR became CUN-YWG-YVR

As for the chart...
CA currently stands at 11x weekly next summer.
BR had always been using a mix of HD and non-HD for Vancouver route.
AM now scheduled to run 17x weekly to MEX.

Johnny Aussie · #**14169** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 9:31 PM**

Middle East / North Africa 7 flights per week?

LeftCoaster · #**14170** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 10:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname

AC use smaller plane for PEK and PVG due to overcapacity
PR no longer route YYZ and JFK traffic through YVR
Rouge removal from AC meaning seat reduction for KIX and NGO (plus DUB)

Plus reduced frequency on AC to Taipei and CZ to Guangzhou.

Qantas also cut their summer service, which is weird since I just started getting flooded with instagram ads to fly Qantas from Canada to Australia...

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname

It may also have to do with more direct service to Delhi? Maybe that 273 people choose to fly direct rather than transit through Europe

It will be interesting to see March and April number though..
would DEL-CPH-YVR count as Asia-Pacific or Europe?
would DEL-YVR-YYZ gives extra boost to Asia-Pacific and Domestic numbers?
MAX grounding would hurt numbers, but some will also provide a boost, like some of the YYC-OGG flights become one stop YYC-YVR-OGG
some misc international number might shift to domestic, for instance, CUN-YVR became CUN-YWG-YVR

As for the chart...
CA currently stands at 11x weekly next summer.
BR had always been using a mix of HD and non-HD for Vancouver route.
AM now scheduled to run 17x weekly to MEX.

Ya March April will be interesting times for all of Canada's airports.

Where are you seeing EVA's HD vs non? I only see 777W on their website.

Also was CA 11 last summer too? I'm guessing this isn't an increase.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Middle East / North Africa 7 flights per week?

Haha that's just me being lazy. I created that category when I was putting together YUL and never bothered to find a better name for it beyond Africa/Middle East/Central+South Asia.

Those 7 flights are Delhi.

Hourglass · #**14171** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 10:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname

AC use smaller plane for PEK and PVG due to overcapacity
PR no longer route YYZ and JFK traffic through YVR
Rouge removal from AC meaning seat reduction for KIX and NGO (plus DUB)

Tks nname. I’m guessing AC’s decision to reroute the return YYZ-DEL via YVR might mitigate the numbers a bit? In any case, I think there’s a risk YVR’s numbers will get hit by continuing tensions with China.

@LeftCoaster tks for putting this epic spreadsheet together. Really shows how impressive YVR’s international ops are.

trofirhen · #**14172** Posted **Mar 28, 2019, 11:22 PM**

delete

LeftCoaster · #**14173** Posted **Mar 29, 2019, 12:07 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Comparing the chart to 10 years ago though you sure get a good idea how far YVR has managed to grow. Definitely a year of slower growth in 2019. 4% isn’t anything to sneeze at though.

Worth pointing out that every ounce of growth coming this year is above record breaking years, so even low growth is a new record.

Jan 2019 - first January in YVR history to break 2 million.

Just 5 years ago we were at 1.5 million in Jan, so that's pretty incredible.

nname · #**14174** Posted **Mar 29, 2019, 1:06 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Where are you seeing EVA's HD vs non? I only see 777W on their website.

By actually taking the flight or looking at the history after it's flown. They both appears the same on schedule I think.

They have 3 versions of 77W:

A. C38W64Y221
B. C39W56Y238
C. C39W56Y258

Here is the assignment for the past year.. bolded month means most common variant.

A.
Apr
May 19,26
Jun
Jul 2-31
Aug 2,3,5-15,18-20,22-31
Sep 1-6,8-18,20-25,26-30
Oct 1,2,4-9,11-16,18-22,24-31
Nov 1,8,10,12,15,17,19,22,26,29
Dec 1,3,22,24
Jan 16,18
Feb 16,20,21
Mar 13

B.
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug 4,16,21
Sep 19,26
Oct 3,17
Nov 3,5,16,24
Dec 10
Jan 26
Feb 23
Mar

C.
Apr 1-30
May 1-18,20-25,27-31
Jun 1-30
Jul 1
Aug 1,17
Sep 7
Oct 10,23
Nov 2,4,6,7,9,11,13,14,18,20,21,23,25,27,28,30
Dec 2,4-9,11-21,23,25-31
Jan 1-15,17,19-25,27-31
Feb 1-15,17-19,22,24-29
Mar 1-12,14-28

As you can see, it's inconsistent, but last winter generally have the HD, summer non-HD, and coin-flip in November.

Source

Johnny Aussie · #**14175** Posted **Mar 29, 2019, 1:25 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Haha that's just me being lazy. I created that category when I was putting together YUL and never bothered to find a better name for it beyond Africa/Middle East/Central+South Asia.

Those 7 flights are Delhi.

I would say in YVR's case, lump that in with Asia Pacific - that's where YVR records DEL.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Worth pointing out that every ounce of growth coming this year is above record breaking years, so even low growth is a new record.

Jan 2019 - first January in YVR history to break 2 million.

Just 5 years ago we were at 1.5 million in Jan, so that's pretty incredible.

I did notice that too... first time cracking 2 million. Feb will probably remain the last sub 2 million month.

thenoflyzone · #**14176** Posted **Mar 29, 2019, 1:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Not really relevant to YVR anymore but WOW Air is done.

Interjet is next.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname

It may also have to do with more direct service to Delhi? Maybe that 273 people choose to fly direct rather than transit through Europe

It will be interesting to see March and April number though..
would DEL-CPH-YVR count as Asia-Pacific or Europe?
would DEL-YVR-YYZ gives extra boost to Asia-Pacific and Domestic numbers?
.

As CPH is a fuel stop, and no pax embark/disembark, DEL-CPH-YVR will count as Asia-Pac.

Also, the domestic leg on DEL-YVR-YYZ isn't for sale, so there should be no boost to domestic numbers from that flight.

Only those passengers disembarking in YVR will count as Asia-Pac and/or domestic/US (if they are connecting). And that number should be minimal, as the flight times aren't optimal.

twoNeurons · #**14177** Posted **Apr 1, 2019, 7:57 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpongeG

yeah thats what I thought, I asked where he was stopping over and he said it was straight to singapore.

Sure he's flying out of YVR? SQ has a direct flight from SEA now.

nname · #**14178** Posted **Apr 1, 2019, 5:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Also, the domestic leg on DEL-YVR-YYZ isn't for sale, so there should be no boost to domestic numbers from that flight.

Only those passengers disembarking in YVR will count as Asia-Pac and/or domestic/US (if they are connecting). And that number should be minimal, as the flight times aren't optimal.

AC now open AC43 DEL-YVR for reservation, but not AC1043

So for some odd reason, if you trying to fly DEL-YYZ, AC will try to route you through AC45, or if the flight not available, AC43 then connect to another early morning flight to YYZ, rather than putting you on AC1043...

Maybe if the airspace closure last long enough, AC45 will become the flight people take when they want to go YYZ, while AC43 will become mainly for YVR?

Johnny Aussie · #**14179** Posted **Apr 1, 2019, 9:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

Sure he's flying out of YVR? SQ has a direct flight from SEA now.

SQ isn’t starting until September.

Speaking of SEA I just looked at their pax stats for Jan and Feb.
They have gotten off to a very slow start for intl. Jan was up only 0.4% (up 1,600 pax) and Feb down 1.4% (down 5,200 pax).
YVR was up 4.5% and over 46,000 intl pax in January.

SEA also has KIX on DL starting and JL and CX have just started in addition to SQ in September.

So yeah, as predicted, SEA will definitely catch and overtake YVR this year in intl pax stats!

Those additional 8 million pax needed to overtake YVR will arrive in SEA before the end of this year for sure!

LeftCoaster · #**14180** Posted **Apr 2, 2019, 9:42 PM**

Wow that is some poor uptake of new capacity. I wonder how long some of these new flights will last. I want SEA to succeed for the good of the region but I also want SQ to regret their decision to go there over YVR.

Will be interesting to see how YVR fares in Feb once we get those numbers... which will be in like June the way YVR has been releasing stats these days.