Surrey Updates

[GMasterAres]

Originally Posted by Urbanmetro

The build out for these buildings will probably come in the next 5-10 years as there's no way the development community can support these projects with falling prices.

Just an FYI that this notion that housing prices are "falling" is misleading at best and makes for great and easy news reporting but doesn't tell an accurate story. Prices in Metro Vancouver are falling just like Crime in Canada is falling.

Meaning, if I say "Crime in Canada is falling" which is statistically correct, you can't then use it to claim crime in every single city is falling. That would be false. Same with prices falling.

Parts of Metro Vancouver have prices falling, but many parts don't. Also different types of residential units have different directions. If you look strictly at Surrey Central, prices are actually going up. Not as sharply as in the past, but going up none the less. And demand is still high.

So everyone needs to be a bit more cautious when they just repeat what the media says in their over simplified "can't provide details only 30 word" blurbs they are guilty of far too often these days.

[Urbanmetro]

Originally Posted by jhausner

Just an FYI that this notion that housing prices are "falling" is misleading at best and makes for great and easy news reporting but doesn't tell an accurate story. Prices in Metro Vancouver are falling just like Crime in Canada is falling.

Meaning, if I say "Crime in Canada is falling" which is statistically correct, you can't then use it to claim crime in every single city is falling. That would be false. Same with prices falling.

Parts of Metro Vancouver have prices falling, but many parts don't. Also different types of residential units have different directions. If you look strictly at Surrey Central, prices are actually going up. Not as sharply as in the past, but going up none the less. And demand is still high.

So everyone needs to be a bit more cautious when they just repeat what the media says in their over simplified "can't provide details only 30 word" blurbs they are guilty of far too often these days.

I have been living in the area for 7 months and have seen a substantial change in price over that time. I wasn't making a generalization, I was stating a Surrey city centre fact. Presales have also died down in Surrey Central, just as they have elsewhere.

[Shift]

Originally Posted by Urbanmetro

And why are there no plans for the recreation centre yet? Before we know it, it'll be 2030.

Master Planning and preliminary architectural design for the rec centre site is well underway - just no formal application submitted yet. It will be re-developed in phases along with the bus loop and parking lot.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Urbanmetro

I have been living in the area for 7 months and have seen a substantial change in price over that time. I wasn't making a generalization, I was stating a Surrey city centre fact. Presales have also died down in Surrey Central, just as they have elsewhere.

It really depends on the timeframe you look at. According to the Real Estate Board, Central Surrey apartment prices were 12% higher in December 2018, compared to a year earlier. That sounds impressive, until you see the six month figure, which shows prices in December 2018 were 7.8% lower than in mid 2018. So prices rose nearly 20% in the early part of 2018, and peaked around June, and have been falling steadily ever since. This is for MLS resales, not new apartments. It's also for apartments, not townhouses or detached homes, and in other parts of Surrey and the Fraser Valley area the percentages are different - although they were all higher over a year, and lower over six months.

[e-clam9]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It really depends on the timeframe you look at. According to the Real Estate Board, Central Surrey apartment prices were 12% higher in December 2018, compared to a year earlier. That sounds impressive, until you see the six month figure, which shows prices in December 2018 were 7.8% lower than in mid 2018. So prices rose nearly 20% in the early part of 2018, and peaked around June, and have been falling steadily ever since. This is for MLS resales, not new apartments. It's also for apartments, not townhouses or detached homes, and in other parts of Surrey and the Fraser Valley area the percentages are different - although they were all higher over a year, and lower over six months.

Agree. Like the UD tower 1 and 2, the tower 2 presales now has low price per sq.ft than tower 1 one year ago. And for Park George I and II (CP is a higher quality builder than most builders here), tower 2 is selling at the same price as tower 1 one year ago. Pre-sales price is now around $700/sq.ft in this area.

As for most area, the very high end houses (multi millions) dropped a lot (some dropped 30+%), but the normal/common/not-too-big condo prices doe not move up or down that much now comparing to summer. Banks are also lowering the mortgage rate and allow less down payment (if you also buy mortgage insurance, HSBC is 2.89%). That helps to combat the negative effect of empty vacancy tax and speculator/satellite family tax. It is interesting to see 600+ big houses for rent in craigslist now because many owners try to avoid these taxes. If you have enough people (few friends or few families or even few strangers), you can rent a 7 bedrooms big house for about $600 to $700 per room in Vancouver :-) You don't need to be super rich to enjoy a nice big house with nice ocean view. So nice. Individual bankruptcy rate is increasing since last November. Take care.

[Urbanmetro]

Originally Posted by Shift

Master Planning and preliminary architectural design for the rec centre site is well underway - just no formal application submitted yet. It will be re-developed in phases along with the bus loop and parking lot.

That's great to know! It is not a distant fantasy, instead, a near reality. Thanks for the info shift. I hope they are including the YMCA facility as part of the development 😁

I think the city needs to communicate much better on big capital projects. When they say they are taking down the rinks because of age, without a plan in place, it seems like a waste of city resources, even if they have built the other rinks in the Scott road area. My initial thought was, why not let all 5 coexist for a few years until there are plans on the books. My thoughts anyway.

[e-clam9]

Originally Posted by Urbanmetro

...Before we know it, it'll be 2030.

You are very optimistic. 2030 is only 11 short years from now and City of Surrey (like the Vancouver) uses the Cosmic calendar (measures in billions of years). Developers also like to hold lands for years until the best time.

[dpapis4]

Originally Posted by e-clam9

As for most area, the very high end houses (multi millions) dropped a lot (some dropped 30+%), but the normal/common/not-too-big condo prices doe not move up or down that much now comparing to summer. Banks are also lowering the mortgage rate and allow less down payment (if you also buy mortgage insurance, BMO is 2.89%)...

Where did you find that 2.89% mortgage rate??

[GMasterAres]

Originally Posted by Urbanmetro

I have been living in the area for 7 months and have seen a substantial change in price over that time. I wasn't making a generalization, I was stating a Surrey city centre fact. Presales have also died down in Surrey Central, just as they have elsewhere.

Statistics 101. A statistic is not a fact. Let's draw the line there. So you're quoting a statistic, you are not quoting a fact. Statistics need to be interpreted and they are also at risk of bias based on how the statistic was gathered, by whom, within what time frame, etc. No good statistician would ever claim a statistic as being factual.

Let's get that straight. This is a mistake a LOT of people not only on these forums but in life make. Again I'll repeat, statistics are NOT facts.

With that said, I can't dispute what you've seen around where you live specifically. That could be what is happening. What I can dispute is I've lived in Surrey Central around King George Station for 9 years now and have seen the opposite, even in the short term.

So if we're both correct for our specific area, then by you saying "Surrey Central", you prove my point about over generalization. That's the point I'm making. People, especially when it comes to real estate statistics, over generalize and treat them as facts when they aren't.

No developer in their right mind would look at any of the stats coming out of the real estate board and use that exclusively as a deciding factor on when or if a project is going to move forward. If I'm building a residential tower around King George Station, I don't particularly care how things are going around Surrey Central station, or Gateway, or Fleetwood, or Brentwood.

Would they look at it? Sure. But there are so many other factors. I would actually be super surprised if the market analysis and cost benefit analysis between Park George and Park Boulevard projects (both of which are the same company) we not substantially different only because they are different towers, with different amenities, in slightly different locations, with different floor plans.

That stuff weighs more on a project that very very short term market burps aka 7 months.

[GMasterAres]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It really depends on the timeframe you look at. According to the Real Estate Board, Central Surrey apartment prices were 12% higher in December 2018, compared to a year earlier. That sounds impressive, until you see the six month figure, which shows prices in December 2018 were 7.8% lower than in mid 2018. So prices rose nearly 20% in the early part of 2018, and peaked around June, and have been falling steadily ever since. This is for MLS resales, not new apartments. It's also for apartments, not townhouses or detached homes, and in other parts of Surrey and the Fraser Valley area the percentages are different - although they were all higher over a year, and lower over six months.

Market burp which happened in the past. That's the point I'm making that we have to be careful on how statistics are interpreted because it is hard to know how the stats were generated, how general they are, and what they may be missing.

Also 6 months is a really short time frame when it comes to real estate. No different than trying to analyze and predict stock prices though people seem to treat each differently. Most people inherently understand that you could never predict future stock prices based on short or even (in many cases) long term historical stock price activities. It helps, but a well informed trader will look at far more variables such as industry of the company, company make up, financial statements, company plans, you name it.

Yet the general public doesn't seem to do that with Real Estate nor does the news media. We just go "Oh prices are going up in Metro Vancouver so I better buy a house now!" or "OMG Real estate board said prices down in metro-Vancouver 12% year over last, market is crashing!!!"

[GMasterAres]

Originally Posted by e-clam9

Agree. Like the UD tower 1 and 2, the tower 2 presales now has low price per sq.ft than tower 1 one year ago. And for Park George I and II (CP is a higher quality builder than most builders here), tower 2 is selling at the same price as tower 1 one year ago. Pre-sales price is now around $700/sq.ft in this area.

As for most area, the very high end houses (multi millions) dropped a lot (some dropped 30+%), but the normal/common/not-too-big condo prices doe not move up or down that much now comparing to summer. Banks are also lowering the mortgage rate and allow less down payment (if you also buy mortgage insurance, BMO is 2.89%). That helps to combat the negative effect of empty vacancy tax and speculator/satellite family tax. It is interesting to see 600+ big houses for rent in craigslist now because many owners try to avoid these taxes. If you have enough people (few friends or few families or even few strangers), you can rent a 7 bedrooms big house for about $600 to $700 per room in Vancouver :-) You don't need to be super rich to enjoy a nice big house with nice ocean view. So nice. Individual bankruptcy rate is increasing since last November. Take care.

So I'd ask you on that statistic, does that tell you the market is down? Or does it tell you the market was inflated a year ago?

Could you make the determination. Because both conclusions to me could be correct.

One person might look at what you said above and conclude "Oh well look the market has dropped." But I don't think it would be unreasonable to argue the point that maybe the towers selling last year were over-inflated for the market.

Long term, prices are way up. WAY up. That's just the reality. As a real-estate investor, I am more interested in long term around my specific area. When I purchased my 1 bedroom 560ish sq.ft apartment in Park Place 2 back in 2007, I paid $168,000.

That is $300 per square foot. And now you're saying with prices the same or less than last year, units are selling for $700 per square foot. That's 2.3 times what I paid in 2007. So in 12 years the immediate area around my unit has increased 2.3 times, despite the last year the presale prices have "dropped" a little.

Again example of stats telling two different stories depending on perspective and interpretation.

I think by this stage I've hopefully made my point to everyone. With that said, I don't see any reason why tower construction in Surrey Central won't continue at a decent pace into the near and long term future.

Honestly the only real factor I think could hinder it is if we had another major world financial melt-down or crash like in 2009.

[GMasterAres]

I don't think anyone posted this but crane was erected on the 6-storey condo development on the corner of 140th and Fraser Highway. I'll take a picture if I can but that project is coming along and is now under construction. It isn't a high-rise but will help close out the block on Fraser Highway on the edge of Green Timbers.

It's also a very nice development from what I can see and I hope we see the Fraser Highway widening soon enough.

[Shift]

Originally Posted by jhausner

I don't think anyone posted this but crane was erected on the 6-storey condo development on the corner of 140th and Fraser Highway. I'll take a picture if I can but that project is coming along and is now under construction. It isn't a high-rise but will help close out the block on Fraser Highway on the edge of Green Timbers.

It's also a very nice development from what I can see and I hope we see the Fraser Highway widening soon enough.

That's for the 6-Storey 'Fraser Landmark':





There's also a crane up for Maverick now too (5 storeys) at Whalley Blvd & 108.

[e-clam9]

Originally Posted by dpapis4

Where did you find that 2.89% mortgage rate??

Sorry, it is HSBC, not BMO...

From there web site today:

Mortgage your home, not your life™
Special offer rate of 2.89% APR** View footnote * on a 5-year fixed closed term high ratio mortgage

https://www.hsbc.ca/mortgages/

[SpongeG]

how does the shooting that occurred just a few days ago have an effect?

[EhJay]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

how does the shooting that occurred just a few days ago have an effect?

None.

[kh177]

Looks like a site just to north of Gateway Station is up for sale - 10955 City Parkway. Up to ~900K square feet of density there.

[officedweller]

North Delta Centre for the Arts

Originally Posted by City Of Rain, post: 1326764, member: 70034

North Delta will soon be home to a new arts centre.

On Monday night, Delta council awarded a construction contract to Maple Leaf Homes Ltd., which is building a multi-family housing complex on the site of the old Firehall Centre for the Arts on 84th Avenue.

The arts centre will have 11,000 square feet of space and is estimated to cost $7.7 million. Construction is expected to take just over a year.

The two-storey facility will include a theatre with a large foyer and concession space, multiple music and meeting rooms, storage space and more.

“It is very exciting that we are at this point to award this contract,” said Coun. Sylvia Bishop. “I think this is a fantastic addition to the social heart. When you look at the concept drawing of the building it echoes the form and character of the rec centre, it fits neatly into the space and provides enough flexibility for all sorts of uses.”

Bishop said the location is also on a public transit route, in a walkable area with lots of parking nearby.

“The old building served the community well, but it was a tired and aged facility that had seen better days as simply a fire hall,” added Coun. Robert Campbell. “This takes us from cobbling together a space to provide for our performing arts and culture people to providing a space that is on a quality that will be second to none in the Lower Mainland. It’s wonderful to be able to sit here and see this being approved knowing that Delta is going to have a facility that will be on the level of what you would see in Vancouver.”

http://www.delta-optimist.com/news/north-delta-arts-centre-approved-1.23082301

Originally Posted by City Of Rain, post: 1326774, member: 70034

DSC09032 by Hung Lam, on Flickr

By City of Rain March 24:

Originally Posted by City Of Rain, post: 1435699, member: 70034

IMG_6789 by City Of Rain, on Flickr
IMG_6792 by City Of Rain, on Flickr
IMG_6799 by City Of Rain, on Flickr

[e-clam9]

Seems small. I hope they have extra land and space there to triple its size in future. It is a good start. If you visited Surrey Arts Center, you know what I mean. It is small....

[Shift]

2 notable projects going to Council Monday:

• Surrey Village Re-Cladding / Office to Rental Residential conversion
• King George Medical Heritage Revitalization / 31-Storey Apartment (Rize Aliance)

Surrey Village





King George Medical