The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Taeolas]

Hmm, it's a bit hard to tell (or I'm not good at browsing the maps), but do we have any CA seeds in the Maritimes?

Looking at NB's biggest towns, (Grand Falls, Woodstock, Sussex, St Stephen), they all seem to be stuck around the 5,000 point and not really growing much, so we're a long time (if ever) before a new CA there.

Looking around Nova Scotia, it seems that Amherst and Bridgewater might be the only two towns approaching the 10k limit.

Are there other new CA's budding that I'm missing?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Looking around Nova Scotia, it seems that Amherst and Bridgewater might be the only two towns approaching the 10k limit.

Bridgewater has growth potential. Amherst has been stagnant for a very long time.

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Hmm, it's a bit hard to tell (or I'm not good at browsing the maps), but do we have any CA seeds in the Maritimes?

Looking at NB's biggest towns, (Grand Falls, Woodstock, Sussex, St Stephen), they all seem to be stuck around the 5,000 point and not really growing much, so we're a long time (if ever) before a new CA there.

Looking around Nova Scotia, it seems that Amherst and Bridgewater might be the only two towns approaching the 10k limit.

Are there other new CA's budding that I'm missing?

Shediac, maybe, assuming it isn't absorbed into the Moncton CMA first. They're a big beneficiary of being close to Moncton and I don't see the 10% growth they saw in the last census to slow down any time soon.

Maybe Tracadie now that they've amalgamated into a regional municipality.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

Shediac, maybe, assuming it isn't absorbed into the Moncton CMA first. They're a big beneficiary of being close to Moncton and I don't see the 10% growth they saw in the last census to slow down any time soon.

Shediac gets absorbed into Moncton CMA eventually, IMO.

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

Maybe Tracadie now that they've amalgamated into a regional municipality.

For as long as Tracadie is amalgamated, anyway. Residents have not been happy about amalgamation and quite a few are requesting dissolution.

[someone123]

Bridgewater has grown a lot in recent decades but 10,000 is still probably years away.

Bridgewater-Luneburg-Mahone Bay is clearly a mini metro area and it's already more developed than some other CAs. It has a similar feel to Kentville. The boundaries just aren't as generous as those of some other CA towns. Bridgewater's population density is about 5x that of Gander for example. Another way to look at that is that you could probably expand Bridgewater's boundaries by 5x to get it over 10,000.

One reason why that area hasn't developed more is that some of those towns are extremely picky about new development, particularly Lunenburg. It's hard to build anything there. On the one hand I understand why they want to preserve the look of the town but on the other they should try to grow a little too.

[MonctonRad]

I agree.

Both Lunenburg and Mahone Bay have very specific cultural and architectural qualities that should be protected.

Bridgewater itself on the other hand is more of a traditional regional service centre, and should become the focus of future ongoing growth in the region.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Bridgewater itself on the other hand is more of a traditional regional service centre, and should become the focus of future ongoing growth in the region.

It's also the furthest away from Halifax which is going to be the major driving force behind growth along the south shore. Part of why the Lunenburg area is so appealing is that it's not far from a CMA of a half million people.

I'm interested in seeing how places like Tantallon and Hubbards develop in the upcoming years. I imagine they would see more commuter-based development before Lunenburg/Bridgewater do.

[JHikka]

Combined Moncton/Saint John/Fredericton CMA & CA population estimates:

2006: 349,247
2010: 365,719
2014: 376,330
2018: 390,765

It's a what if dream scenario but if all three were combined into one city it would be roughly equivalent to Victoria's CMA (395,523). Would be the 16th largest CMA in Canada.

Either way, goes to show how steady NB's urban population has been increasing the past decade or so.

[KnoxfordGuy]

It is what New Brunswick needs. Soon the city growth will take the provincial population up with it.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

It is what New Brunswick needs. Soon the city growth will take the provincial population up with it.

It's been doing this for the past decade or so. NB's cities have seen steady, consistent growth as the rural areas decline. Until three or four years ago (with increased international immigration) the rural losses and interprovincial outmigration concealed those general urban gains.

Now NB is doing better on the interprovincial migration front, is getting 4K+ international migrants each year, and the natural increases in Fredericton & Moncton are average. All of this leads to steady provincial growth, even with rural losses continuing. Saint John likely needs international migration numbers similar to the other two cities in the future but to have the three CMAs pushing for a combined 400K population is pretty good, IMO, considering they're all roughly 1hr30m apart.

[q12]

Nova Scotia is the only Atlantic Province showing population growth Q1 2019, which is normally the slowest quarter for growth due to winter.



https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901

[q12]

Unemployment rate March 2019

Newfoundland and Labrador 11.5%
Prince Edward Island _____ 8.9%
New Brunswick __________ 7.9%
Nova Scotia _____________ 6.2%

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190405/t003a-eng.htm

[DTBourque]

Originally Posted by JHikka

It's been doing this for the past decade or so. NB's cities have seen steady, consistent growth as the rural areas decline. Until three or four years ago (with increased international immigration) the rural losses and interprovincial outmigration concealed those general urban gains.

Now NB is doing better on the interprovincial migration front, is getting 4K+ international migrants each year, and the natural increases in Fredericton & Moncton are average. All of this leads to steady provincial growth, even with rural losses continuing. Saint John likely needs international migration numbers similar to the other two cities in the future but to have the three CMAs pushing for a combined 400K population is pretty good, IMO, considering they're all roughly 1hr30m apart.

Yup. You can see it pretty clearly here - I recommend sorting by 2016 population: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_municipalities_in_New_Brunswick#List_of_municipalities

You can also see at the bottom of the table the population changes by municipality type.

If you sort by "Change", the majority of the growth is coming from Moncton, Fredericton, and their surrounding communities.

I would expect Moncton and SE NB's growth to continue being strong since it's somewhat unique in Canada - high education, high French/English bilingualism, low costs of doing business, low wages/cost of living, and fast internet. It's an ideal place to outsource business and professional services to for many Canadian companies. Once a cluster like that gets established, if its conditions hold, it should keep on reinforcing itself and growing. I think we're starting to see that now in Moncton (and in Fredericton for ICTs).

[Bishop2047]

Also seems like many of the secondary cities and towns of the north (ish) are doing better than they did in the previous decades. Edmundston, woodstock, Bathurst, Grand Falls, and mirimichi all seem to be holding their own. I am not saying the North will start seeing gains but the main population centers are doing better than I expected them to.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Also seems like many of the secondary cities and towns of the north (ish) are doing better than they did in the previous decades. Edmundston, woodstock, Bathurst, Grand Falls, and mirimichi all seem to be holding their own. I am not saying the North will start seeing gains but the main population centers are doing better than I expected them to.

Indeed. It's the surrounding areas and towns that are bleeding at this point. Towns like Woodstock and Miramichi can survive by being near enough to the south and NB's population centres, but towns like Bathurst and Campbellton are going to have trouble in the coming years. Edmundston has the advantage of being on the TCH and being on the path for many people literally driving through NB - Bathurst/Campbellton do not.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Indeed. It's the surrounding areas and towns that are bleeding at this point. Towns like Woodstock and Miramichi can survive by being near enough to the south and NB's population centres, but towns like Bathurst and Campbellton are going to have trouble in the coming years. Edmundston has the advantage of being on the TCH and being on the path for many people literally driving through NB - Bathurst/Campbellton do not.

Generally agree, but I think the situation in Bathurst has stabilized. There is a lot of new commercial/retail development going on in the city, and Bathurst has established itself as the de facto "Capital of the North" I think things all along the shore of the Bay of Chaleur from Bathurst to Belledune will do OK in the future.

The real challenges will be on the Acadian Peninsula and in the Restigouche region. These areas may be beyond salvation.........

[DTBourque]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Generally agree, but I think the situation in Bathurst has stabilized. There is a lot of new commercial/retail development going on in the city, and Bathurst has established itself as the de facto "Capital of the North" I think things all along the shore of the Bay of Chaleur from Bathurst to Belledune will do OK in the future.

The real challenges will be on the Acadian Peninsula and in the Restigouche region. These areas may be beyond salvation.........

The earlier examples of Edmundston and Miramichi are interesting, because they went through amalgamations years ago that were very unpopular at the time. Amalgamation is not a silver bullet, but it gives a community more credibility and greater ability to set priorities and spend - on economic growth and immigration, for example.

In terms of Restigouche and Acadian Peninsula - it depends where.

St Quentin is in Restigouche and has been welcoming immigrants and growing.

The other municipalities in the county are essentially Kedgwick (15 mins from St Quentin) or clustured around Campbellton.

There's a lot going on in the Acadian Peninsula.

Caraquet, Grande-Anse, Bertrand, St-Isidore, and Pacquetteville are all clustered together and grew. (I'll note that a couple others shrank - St-Léolin and Bas-Caraquet.)

Tracadie and Neguac had very little change.

Shippagan, but especially Lamèque and surrounding island communities shrank.

So, all of this to say that to me the trend is the smallest communities continue to depopulate, but people continue to cluster in and around many others in the regions.

I think anywhere that is shrinking, including Saint John, might want to look at finding new ways of cooperating, if not amalgamating, with their surroundings, as a way of getting economic and population growth under control.

It would make sense to me to make huge municipalities in Campbellton/Restigouche and the Acadian Peninsula.

[David_99]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Generally agree, but I think the situation in Bathurst has stabilized. There is a lot of new commercial/retail development going on in the city, and Bathurst has established itself as the de facto "Capital of the North" I think things all along the shore of the Bay of Chaleur from Bathurst to Belledune will do OK in the future.

I was visiting the In-Laws in Bathurst this weekend, who wanted to experience the Rib Fest for the first time. I was expecting a barely attended, elderly-only-event, but was shocked to find the location filled to the brim with young families pushing baby carriages.

[theshark]

Originally Posted by David_99

I was visiting the In-Laws in Bathurst this weekend, who wanted to experience the Rib Fest for the first time. I was expecting a barely attended, elderly-only-event, but was shocked to find the location filled to the brim with young families pushing baby carriages.

The last two years have been good in Bathurst, looks like the city is finally bouncing back from the closure of the mine. Several newcomers to the retail market(Marshall’s, Aubainerie...) have driven people to come back to Bathurst to shop. Downtown has also transformed itself to become more attractive to the younger crowds(breweries, shops, restaurants..)

I figure if everything goes well as per the industrial projects in Belledune, might just see a really small decrease or increase in population in the municipalities by next census.

Also, would be interesting to see how Edmundston will do on the next census, following years of decline, an increase of 548 residents in 2016. Employers are recruiting all over the place as the unemployment numbers are really low and there is almost 400 open positions to be filled in the region.

[DTBourque]

Regarding the discussion on CA seeds in the Maritimes -

I did some digging looking at NB municipalities - I’d say Shediac is next in line in NB to become a CA (or be included into the Moncton CMA).

It has been growing 12.4%, 10.1% and 10.1% over 2001-2006, 2006-2011, and 2011-2016, respectively. This represents about 600 people over 2011-2016. Shediac should be around 7300 people by the 2021 census if it grows another 10% over the last.

Even at that 10% rate, it will take a little while to reach 10 000 (7300, 8000, 8800, and then 9700 by 2036). Here are some anecdotal reasons why it could continue to grow -

• Shediac’s been plagued with (summer) traffic problems for years due to there being only one main drag that goes through downtown. A 2013 transportation plan recommended building new access to Route 15 (via Chelsea Street) and extending an existing road to become a collector parallel to Main Street (Breaux Bridge Rd). https://shediac.ca/~shediac/images/pdf/Presentation_-_Shediac_Council_20131123_English.pdf
• The Route 15 access was just completed and will make the biggest difference. https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/departments/dti/news/news_release.2018.07.0922.html
• The road extension was on a 5-10 year timeline in 2013 transpo plan and is in the 2017 Municipal Development Plan https://shediac.ca/images/By-law_P14-36_Municipal_Plan_English_Consolidated_2017-07-27.pdf. I’m assuming it isn’t too far behind, even though it hasn’t been committed to a particular year to my knowledge.
• This should clear up the traffic, make divided highway access very quick (5ish minutes for many), and open new areas to development.
• It’s about 10 minutes to the Dieppe/Moncton Wheeler traffic circle once you’re on Route 15. You can get anywhere in Moncton relatively quickly from there.
• Shediac’s going to appeal to people who want to be closer to the water, have lower taxes, and/or a smaller-town feel than Moncton, Riverview, or Dieppe.
• If developers build new condos, apartments, or houses close to Route 15 or the water, they should go very fast. I plan on moving to Greater Moncton in the next year and will look for options in Shediac.