Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedestrian
I think there will be a shake-out of certain business models, some of which resemble the ones that crashed in 2000. One example is all the home delivery/service companies. No one has really figured out how to actually make money delivering food to peoples' homes and yet there are now quite a few companies in this business (Doordash, Grubhub, Instacart, Caviar etc etc). Most, if not all of them probably won't make it long term (anybody else remember Webvan?).
There may be consolidation of some more solid models like streaming music. On the other hand, we seem to be about to get more competition for Netflix in the streaming video space.
Compared to 2000, most of today's crop of tech IPOs are more mature and most of them make money so I don't think you'll see wholesale failures like in 2000 - 2002.
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I think of Uber and Lyft when it comes to these insane valuations. The domestic taxi/limousine industry is $36 billion, ($108 billion global value). Yet the number I hear bandied about in terms of future valuations for the global ride share market is $285 billion by 2030. Uber and Lyft are going to absorb the entire tax/limo market and then nearly triple it in ten years? I feel like these forecasts are peddled by people who stand to profit mightily from an IPO and sell high. Their business model is based off of screwing over the majority of their drivers.
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