Calgary International Airport II - Page 410

hollywoodcory · #**8181** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 2:35 AM**

January 2019 Stats:

Domestic: 926,718 (+7.7%)
Transborder: 264,679 (+4.0%)
International: 183,511 (-1.2%)
Overall: 1,374,908 (+5.7%)

Johnny Aussie · #**8182** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 3:16 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

O&D stands for origin and destination. YYC-FRA and YYC-LHR are not "O&D" because AC does not fill those planes with people solely originating (O) in YYC. People connect in YYC to get to those planes, and then their destination (D) is often not FRA or LHR, but rather other destinations particularly in Europe.

I think AC gets a fair bit of connecting traffic through YYC to fill LHR and FRA. That makes it by definition a non-O&D market. AC makes money on this route primarily because it gets people in YYC (but also in BC, SK, MB and US) to LHR and FRA, but also mostly to connect onwards in the two biggest hubs in Europe. Compare this to YYC-YYZ where in fact people want to start (origin) in YYC and end (destination) in YYZ. FRA and LHR are actually a good example of AC using YYC as a hub.

I'm sorry you're not understanding me.... I am FULLY aware of what O&D is.
The UK and Germany are the largest O&D international markets to/from YYC.
Both tourists (and obviously some business and VFR traffic) originating in the U.K. and Germany and for YYC passengers going to those destinations. There are actually slightly more visitors coming from Japan but the total O&D market for YYC is larger to Germany than Japan. Therefore, YYC-LHR and YYC-FRA are serving the two largest O&D international markets to and from YYC. Yes there are passengers helping to fill the flights exiting YYC and onwards from LHR and FRA. So I'll repeat... the fact remains YYC-LHR and YYC-FRA are serving the two largest O&D Markets for YYC. And again... I would be shocked if either one were ever dropped.

Another reason why YVR has so many more European flights (moreso in summer) than YYC is that YVR's O&D markets are just that much larger.

YYCFlier · #**8183** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 4:19 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

So I'll repeat... the fact remains YYC-LHR and YYC-FRA are serving the two largest O&D Markets for YYC. And again... I would be shocked if either one were ever dropped.

That's fair if it's true. I'll take your word for it. AC has been quoted as saying they route a ton of traffic via FRA, so it's not O&D but rather the presence of a large joint venture partner (LH) receiving traffic from YYC and pushing it elsewhere. I agree LHR and FRA seem quite safe. It would seem to me if the O&D to Germany is as high as you say, wouldn't other carriers by capitalizing on that?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Another reason why YVR has so many more European flights (moreso in summer) than YYC is that YVR's O&D markets are just that much larger.

I'd like to see the numbers. It could also be that again, it's not O&D but rather that AC is routing western Canadians and western US customers via YVR, much like WS is trying to do at YYC. Obviously, YVR is going to have a larger O&D just due to size of the metro (though conceivably, Edmonton+Calgary together have a metro exceeding Vancouver).

It seems that the sweet spot is somewhere around 30% connecting, 70% O&D. YYC is close to 34% connecting for WS.

Johnny Aussie · #**8184** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 5:07 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

That's fair if it's true. I'll take your word for it. AC has been quoted as saying they route a ton of traffic via FRA, so it's not O&D but rather the presence of a large joint venture partner (LH) receiving traffic from YYC and pushing it elsewhere. I agree LHR and FRA seem quite safe. It would seem to me if the O&D to Germany is as high as you say, wouldn't other carriers by capitalizing on that?

I'd like to see the numbers. It could also be that again, it's not O&D but rather that AC is routing western Canadians and western US customers via YVR, much like WS is trying to do at YYC. Obviously, YVR is going to have a larger O&D just due to size of the metro (though conceivably, Edmonton+Calgary together have a metro exceeding Vancouver).

It seems that the sweet spot is somewhere around 30% connecting, 70% O&D. YYC is close to 34% connecting for WS.

Just sent you a PM - apologies for the formatting.

I’m not saying Germany is particularly high from YYC but it is the second largest market from YYC. High enough to warrant direct flights on AC and Condor but not large enough to bring back LH. Even though Germany is still the second largest market, it’s probably not big enough for many more entrants. Condor and Air Canada cover it well. Even TS pulled out.

hollywoodcory · #**8185** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 5:33 AM**

https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/ai...vestor/Compiled-Investor-Day-Feb2019.pdf

From AC's investor day materials, on a graphic of potential 7M8 routes shows YYC-MCO and possibly HNL? (on page 98) A220 potential routes on pg. 99, but its already been discussed.

YYCFlier · #**8186** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 6:19 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

From AC's investor day materials, on a graphic of potential 7M8 routes shows YYC-MCO and possibly HNL? (on page 98) A220 potential routes on pg. 99, but its already been discussed.

MCO I agree, HNL looks like it's from YEG.

Johnny Aussie · #**8187** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 6:20 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/ai...vestor/Compiled-Investor-Day-Feb2019.pdf

From AC's investor day materials, on a graphic of potential 7M8 routes shows YYC-MCO and possibly HNL? (on page 98) A220 potential routes on pg. 99, but its already been discussed.

That HNL blue line appears to be going to YEG.

The clear message throughout the presentation is their future growth will continue to be YYZ, YUL and YVR.

The timeline of widebodies on page 94 also shows no growth through 2021. Well.... one additional A330 between 2019 and 2021.

CloudInspector · #**8188** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 6:21 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I'd like to see the numbers. It could also be that again, it's not O&D but rather that AC is routing western Canadians and western US customers via YVR, much like WS is trying to do at YYC. Obviously, YVR is going to have a larger O&D just due to size of the metro (though conceivably, Edmonton+Calgary together have a metro exceeding Vancouver).

I’m not sure what Edmonton has to do with the Calgary market size? Vancouver+Victoria, Vancouver+Kelowna or Vancouver+Seattle also have a metro area exceeding that of Calgary+Edmonton.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Calgary’s population growth has largely been the result of inter-provincial migration while Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver have seen a larger percentage of foreign immigration. This also helps the O&D traffic to foreign markets.

YYCFlier · #**8189** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 6:27 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CloudInspector

I’m not sure what Edmonton has to do with the Calgary market size? Vancouver+Victoria, Vancouver+Kelowna or Vancouver+Seattle also have a metro area exceeding that of Calgary+Edmonton.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Calgary’s population growth has largely been the result of inter-provincial migration while Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver have seen a larger percentage of foreign immigration. This also helps the O&D traffic to foreign markets.

A lot of people drive between the cities (not sure why, I'd rather fly). In any case, recent information given by a forum member shows that even with a larger combined metro (YYC/YEG) YVR still has higher O&D to international destinations, which proves your point.

Calgary's population growth is inter-provincial migration and natural growth. Lots of babies.

YYCFlier · #**8190** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 6:29 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

The clear message throughout the presentation is their future growth will continue to be YYZ, YUL and YVR.

International widebodies, agreed. Any new international growth out of YYC will come from WS.

Looks like there's some possibilities with new transborder markets such as YYC-MCO, YYC-IAD and YYC-BOS, though.

YYCguys · #**8191** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 10:11 PM**

I would love to have a non stop to IAD from YYC!

hollywoodcory · #**8192** Posted **Mar 1, 2019, 11:19 PM**

Happy March

BNA resumed today, and ATL launches on Sunday. BA and NRT both resume in just 4 short weeks.

https://www.yyc.com/Media/Blog/TabId/785...of-YYC-to-Las-Vegas-with-Air-Canada.aspx

Also not sure what this is talking about, but doesn't AC already serve LAS daily year-round?

YYCFlier · #**8193** Posted **Mar 2, 2019, 12:07 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

Also not sure what this is talking about, but doesn't AC already serve LAS daily year-round?

Yeah

PPAR · #**8194** Posted **Mar 2, 2019, 3:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

The clear message throughout the presentation is their future growth will continue to be YYZ, YUL and YVR.

Air Canada is not even pretending to call YYC a hub this year. The message from this presentation is clear, they are an airline based out of YYZ, YUL and YVR.

I totally agree that they see all their growth coming from the international side of the business. If anything, you could argue they are neglecting the domestic operation, the Jazz feeder is to shrink its fleet, and they do not even mention anything significant on the domestic ops other than they may fly an A220 YVR YHZ. This makes sense, domestic fares are high so if anything improving yields will be challenging on that side. They are proving able to make gains transatlantic. The transpacific growth numbers are actually a little worrisome if you look closely.

This is all important information if you are a WestJet investor. If WS is given breathing room to develop its widebody ops out of YYC, and is successful, it is easily a $30 stock. If it runs into challenges, $21 (where it is now) is about right.

casper · #**8195** Posted **Mar 3, 2019, 6:10 AM**

Discussion over on the frequently flyer forum is that WestJet has taken over the the lounge on pier A as its own.

Any one have any details on what the plan is. Hopefully that is stepping stone for domestic departures to have three lounges: WestJet, AC and Priority Pass/AMEX lounge.

MalcolmTucker · #**8196** Posted **Mar 3, 2019, 6:12 AM**

Last domestic flight out WestJet had a customer service desk in the A lounge. No branding had changed then. Is there still the old lounge space up stairs near B that could be refurbished and reopened?

YYCFlier · #**8197** Posted **Mar 3, 2019, 2:28 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acey

Inaugural ATL on WS heads out this morning, a full 7M8 of 174 pax. Advance bookings look stellar through summer.

But so did MEX.

I am not at all worried about ATL and in fact believe they'll upgauge from 737-700 to 800s or 7M8s, and possibly to double daily soon. There's a lot of codeshares from ATL now.

I think MEX failed due to lack of high yield connecting traffic in MEX. You won't see that problem in ATL. WS had very good yields (I think Sims even lamented on the loss of them) connecting passengers in ORD and DTW with American.