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Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
My apologies in advance for a very long post, it’s just that there have been so many posts during the last week, which deserve a response:
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Never a need to apologize for that. Your posts are most informative and while I may not agree with you all the time, your arguments are well thought out. It is also nice having someone on the inside to provide a different perspective.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
Agreed, but neither is having to change the train 5 times and spending as many nights in the Hotel for simply travelling from Collins to Vancouver…
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First of all, I would suggest that one would only have to change trains 3 maybe 4 times. As I said in post #276:
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Originally Posted by roger1818
One option (westbound) would be:
Day 1&2 - Toronto-Winnipeg,
Overnight in Winnipeg [#1]
Day 3 - Winnipeg-Saskatoon
Overnight in Saskatoon [#2]
Day 4 Saskatoon-Edmonton
Overnight in Edmonton [#3]
Day 5&6 Edmonton-Vancouver*
*Edmonton-Vancouver could also be split, but daylight service is already offered by the Rocky Mountaineer, and they might complain about a VIA competing with them with subsidized service.
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Secondly, would anyone actually take the train from Collins all the way to Vancouver? Not only would it take 3 days, but a 1-way economy ticket looks like it starts at $331 +tax +meals (picking a random date in late November). More likely, that person would take the 11 hour trip to Winnipeg for $77+tax+meals and then fly to Vancouver (which seems to start at about $255). So for about the same price (minus the cost of all the extra meals you would need to buy on the train) a person who lives in Collins could get to Vancouver in less than a day.
Granted there are those with phobias, but what percentage of them actually refuse to fly and are we subsidizing long distance rail service for them specifically? That person could still take the train, it would just take a little longer, but they are already expecting it to take a long time.
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Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
The projected cost for HFR is $4 billion for Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec or $4.65 million per km for a route of which a large chunk is already operated by passenger trains and at speeds of up to 100 mph, with a considerable portion (Coteau-Ottawa-Smiths Falls) even being already owned by VIA (and with CN currently abandoning its trackage rights). Calgary to South Edmonton (Strathcona) is 307 km, which would translate to $1.43 billion.
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I don't think I need to tell you that you can't just divide up the costs like that. The new track (the approximately 140km from Havelock to Glen Tay) will be the most expensive part. Unfortunately the public is not privy to numbers on how much the different legs will cost to get a better estimate though. Even if it is $1.5 billion, I think that would be a worthwhile investment to:
- Improve connectivity between two major cities,
- Work towards our Paris Agreement commitments,
- Show the western provinces that they are important to Canada at a time when western separation is starting to rear its ugly head again.
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Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
I’m convinced that should HFR be remotely as successful as I believe that it will be, then Calgary-Edmonton would be the logical second corridor to roll HFR out, which is why Western Canadians might want to keep their fingers crossed for HFR – it’s their best chance in restoring intercity passenger rail service which actually deserves that name…
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I am glad you agree. It sounded like you were arguing that Alberta should never have HFR.
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Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
Exactly! The back-of-the-envelop calculation I provided in one of my previous posts suggests that running a “remote” Capreol-Winnipeg service would already require a subsidy of $18.3 million (or almost half the Canadian’s entire subsidy of $41.2 million in 2017)…
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't those calculations assume the Capreol-Winnipeg train wouldn't have any tourists and be strictly a local service? My proposal is to work with tour operators to devise a schedule and service that they can use to build a luxury tour across the country, so the trains would still be double purposed.
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Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
You seem to believe that the monetary budget is the only constraint tourists have. However, time is the constraint you seem to completely neglect. So why haven’t I taken the Canadian again during the last four years, despite the very generous discounts we employees enjoy? Because vacation days are not for free for people who haven’t retired yet. Giving passengers the choice to spend any increment of 24 hours at any city served along the route (as Amtrak does, thanks to its ability to offer daily service on almost all its long-distance routes) is a feature, while forcing passengers to waste increments of half-days in cities they have no intention of visiting is clearly a bug, which basically turns a “rail cruise” experience to that of a hitchhiking backpacker and deprives Canadians with an aversion against flying from the only practical alternative for traveling across the country…
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Most people take vacations 1 week at a time to take advantage of 2 weekends so that you get 9 days vacation with only 5 vacation days. That is why 7 day cruises (and vacations in general) tend to be most popular. As a result, the difference between a 4 day tour and a 6 day tour, is going to make minimal difference in terms of schedule.
Granted it will make a difference if the person is wanting to use it as a form of long distance transportation, but even then, if they are time sensitive, they will likely fly, so the number of people who would accept 4 days but reject 6 is minimal. Also, when I took it, the largest demographic was retirees, for whom time is not a significant factor.
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Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
I suggest to browse along CP’s Calgary-Edmonton line on RAC’s excellent rail map to appreciate the volume of active freight rail terminals, freight spurs and branch lines, all of which suggests that the rail freight volume along this corridor (and thus its importance within CP’s national network) is orders of magnitudes higher than in the areas around Ottawa or Peterborough…
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That is an excellent railway map. Thanks!
Considering rail-freight traffic in Ottawa in near non-existent, an order of magnitude increase would mean only a couple trains a day (and in a few years it would mean no trains since zero times ten is zero).
Seriously though, it is hard to say for sure how valuable it is to CP. More than the Havelock Subdivision? Probably, but I am sure it is no where near as important as the Winchester Sub, which VIA wants to obtain (east of de Beaujeu) from CP for HFR.
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Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
I should have indeed looked up TC’s track classes, but a rail speed limit of 95 km/h is much less competitive with a road speed limit of 100 km/h as it might appear: whereas cars may travel up to 20 km/h above that limit without any risk of getting pulled over (and many drivers exceed the speed limit by more than that) railway speed limits must be taken at face value. I took a look at the route with Google Earth Pro and measured the radius of a few dozen curves before modelling travel times. My calculations suggest that the non-stop travel time between Calgary and Edmonton South (Strathcona) would be at least 3:39:
Assumptions: track speed limit of 60 mph, acceleration value of 0.39 m/s^2, deceleration value of 0.5 m/s^2, train length of 300 meters and a travel time supplement of 5% plus 1 minute per 100 km.
Note that Google Earth quotes a travel time of 2:57 (3:00-3:40 even for a weekday 5pm departure) and that adding only 3 more stops (Calgary Airport, Red Deer, Edmonton Airport) would increase the travel time to 3:45, at which time the rail service would not be time-competitive against the bus with a scheduled downtown-to-downtown travel time of 3:30-4:05, considering the decentral location of Strathcona station in South Edmonton…
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Thanks for the amazing calculations!!! I never knew what acceleration and deceleration values to use for trains. Very helpful!
You are acting as if time is the only important factor though. You are forgetting that price, comfort and convenience are also important.
- Compared to driving, the train wins on price (for single riders) and comfort,
- Compared to the bus, the train has a huge advantage in comfort, and speed can be, but is not always, an advantage,
- Compared to flying, the train wins on comfort, convenience and price (for short flights),
Being time competitive with cars, would give the train a huge advantage, but even if it isn't, some will be won over by the improved comfort and the fact that they can be more productive (even if driving is faster, the time spent driving is wasted, which is why I almost always take the train to Montreal instead of driving).
The buses that are only 3:20, are express and don't stop in Red Deer or YYC. Those that do, Take over 4 hours, so even if your 3:45 estimate is optimistic, and it takes 4 hours, the train would still be time competitive. Everything else being equal, most would choose the train over the bus. Many would even make some compromises to do so, so it doesn't have to be faster.
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Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
Exactly, it will always be difficult to secure the necessary capital funding for a modern (i.e. at least semi fast and frequent) passenger rail corridor without any pre-existing rail ridership…
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That's why baby steps might be a better approach. Once VIA has received deliver of all of its new trainsets, there will be some life left in many of the LRCs (they were somewhat recently refurbished). A pilot project could be introduced whereby the LRCs are run on existing tracks and stop and temporary stations. While not ideal, it wouldn't be that different from what we see in Southern Ontario currently. Popularity of the service could be judged, and you would then have numbers that can be used to show how the system could grow with improved infrastructure (better stations, better track, better trains).
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Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
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Yup. He falls into the category of, "with friends like those, who needs enemies."
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Originally Posted by Urban_Sky
My apologies for this long post and kudos for everybody who read it in its entirety... 
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Ditto.