Halifax Stadium Discussion

[elly63]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

Patience, grasshopper

You're dating yourself...and me

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by elly63

You're dating yourself...and me

Yes, and when you reach our (collective) age, it's difficult being patient. There's so little time left.........

[elly63]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Yes, and when you reach our (collective) age, it's difficult being patient. There's so little time left

I'm not too old to go from my pacifist Confucian ways to kicking ten guys' asses here

[Colin May]

As of March 31 2018 the Long Term debt of HRM, not including the water utility, was $180,062,000. The debt of the water utility was $45,500,000.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by Colin May

As of March 31 2018 the Long Term debt of HRM, not including the water utility, was $180,062,000. The debt of the water utility was $45,500,000.

So I guess that means no new roads, hospitals, libraries, theaters, or police stations.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by elly63

So I guess that means no new roads, hospitals, libraries, theaters, or police stations.

Despite all the doom and gloom, the city's debt is much lower today than it used to be. In 1997 it was around $350M, over $500M in today's dollars, for a smaller population and economy. The real debt load is in 2019 is probably around 1/3 of what it was in 1997.

Detroit filed for bankruptcy a while ago and they had $18-20B of debt and a population of 700,000 or so.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by someone123

Despite all the doom and gloom, the city's debt is much lower today than it used to be. In 1997 it was around $350M, over $500M in today's dollars, for a smaller population and economy. The real debt load is in 2019 is probably around 1/3 of what it was in 1997.

Detroit filed for bankruptcy a while ago and they had $18-20B of debt and a population of 700,000 or so.

Detroit finances have no relevance to the finances of HRM because municipalities in Canada do not have the extensive powers of municipalities in the USA, powers such as granting tax breaks to stadia and hockey arenas and business in general. Most American municipalities are in quite a parlous state, beset by massive unfunded liabilies for pension and health benefits.
HRM is in quite good financial health and the province is in no mood to allow spending on guaranteed money pits with little increase in employment - excepting ferries of course.
And we shall soon see a decrease in the number of HRP police officers - too many officers in metro.
We need some significant spending in schools in low income areas to help children obtain better literacy and math skills, the situation is quite grim in too many schools.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by elly63

You're dating yourself...and me

All that matters is that you understood...

[Colin May]

I think this pretty much sums up my view,my view not having the clout of Mr Sabia and many others who would agree with him. And the risk he describes equally applies to the HRM pension fund. We live in uncertain times.

" Mr. Sabia said it is unclear whether the world is headed toward recession. What is clear, he said, is a series of issues simmering around the world – Brexit, international trade barriers, a lagging Chinese economy, government turmoil in Europe and South America, political gridlock in the United States, among other issues – create ingredients for economic slowdown and turbulent markets.

“The year 2018 was a very demanding year. I don’t say that because it was exceptional, but because the year might be a precursor of what’s awaiting us – volatility, slowing economic growth and geopolitical risk,” he said.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business...alue-as-caisse-posts-42-per-cent-return/

[TheNovaScotian]

Originally Posted by Colin May

I think this pretty much sums up my view,my view not having the clout of Mr Sabia and many others who would agree with him. And the risk he describes equally applies to the HRM pension fund. We live in uncertain times.

" Mr. Sabia said it is unclear whether the world is headed toward recession. What is clear, he said, is a series of issues simmering around the world – Brexit, international trade barriers, a lagging Chinese economy, government turmoil in Europe and South America, political gridlock in the United States, among other issues – create ingredients for economic slowdown and turbulent markets.

“The year 2018 was a very demanding year. I don’t say that because it was exceptional, but because the year might be a precursor of what’s awaiting us – volatility, slowing economic growth and geopolitical risk,” he said.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business...alue-as-caisse-posts-42-per-cent-return/

Then wouldn't it be beholden of governments to continue to invest in infrastructure projects that add value to our communities. Instead of retreating from the problem why not charge at it try to make a difference. Building projects are the most effective way for governments to inject money into the real economy, with boots on the ground and shovels working. A stadium would source gravel and aggregate from Digby, the design could be done by readily available local talent and form work by any of the local firms here. This is not rocket science, we just like to make it seem that way here in Halifax because it makes it easier to dismiss the whole thing as too complicated.

The funniest part about the quote is that most of the uncertainty has come from disillusioned baby boomers just like yourself who don't trust the institutions that protect them and turned housing into a investment vehicle. As with most decisions made by this group of reactionaries, the timeline used to make decisions is near its end and everything else after that can go to hell. Now all they want is band-aid fixes that will give them enough time to exit the market before the bottom falls out.

[someone123]

When has there not been geopolitical risk somewhere? Or chicken littles saying that the world will end? The connection to the stadium discussion is tenuous at best. It's never been easier for a major stadium to be built in Halifax.

[OldDartmouthMark]

I agree. There will always be 'something' to use for a reason to not build a stadium. Recessions come and go, but the infrastructure stays, and things always balance out. If we don't do it because we are worried about something bad that might happen, then we will never get anything done.

If you want to look at worst-case scenarios, remember what happened with the MacKay Bridge financing:

In 1970, a decision was made to finance the construction of the bridge with low-interest loans denominated in foreign currencies. That decision saved money in the short term and allowed the tolls to be kept low. However, the subsequent decline in the value of the Canadian dollar against the German Mark and the Swiss franc wiped out the interest cost advantage, then added massively to annual debt servicing costs. At its peak, the Commission's debt amounted to nearly $125,000,000, nearly triple the total cost of construction for both harbour bridges of about $42,000,000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._Murray_MacKay_Bridge

It was a huge unexpected cost, a disaster really, but we got through it and we now still have a bridge, and the city/province didn't go bankrupt. Surely nothing this severe will happen in building a stadium, but even if it did, we would get through it, and we would have a stadium.

Additionally, I can guarantee that there will be less land options available in 20 years than there are now.

IMHO, there is so much momentum built to get this done, that now is the time to do it.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by TheNovaScotian

Then wouldn't it be beholden of governments to continue to invest in infrastructure projects that add value to our communities. Instead of retreating from the problem why not charge at it try to make a difference. Building projects are the most effective way for governments to inject money into the real economy, with boots on the ground and shovels working. A stadium would source gravel and aggregate

Did you read the article ?
Did someone123 read the article ?

The past 10 years have been a boom and the primary causes are low interest rates and the Chinese economy. Naturally we have been part of the boom and yet there are many more business people and central bankers than either of you who believe this part of the economic cycle is stalled and beset by global uncertainty. If you don't know who Sabia is you should consider refraining from commenting.
Increasing HRM debt by 66% to build a stadium makes no economic sense and brings negligible economic benefit to the region. The MacKay bridge was essential infrastructure, as are hospitals,schools, sewers,water lines and roads. The financing of the bridge received plenty of criticism and I don't recall Canadian businesses seeking capital in the form of Swiss francs.
We don't view our home as an investment and I don't know anyone who takes that view. It seems more prevalent amongst younger people who think they are hard done by in a world that is completely different from the one I worked in.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Colin May

Increasing HRM debt by 66% to build a stadium makes no economic sense and brings negligible economic benefit to the region.

I agree but is this an actual proposal from anybody?

The latest articles have mentioned a total stadium budget of around $130M, but it has not been determined that the cost will fall 100% on the city or that the city would handle that cost solely by increasing its debt. The city has an annual capital budget too.

[teddifax]

deleted, couldn't post picture.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by someone123

I agree but is this an actual proposal from anybody?

The latest articles have mentioned a total stadium budget of around $130M, but it has not been determined that the cost will fall 100% on the city or that the city would handle that cost solely by increasing its debt. The city has an annual capital budget too.

This for proposed 2018-19 Capital budget : https://www.halifax.ca/sites/default/fil...finances/Proposed_2018_Book.pdf#page=357

And this for a worldview of the challenges we all face. The writers come from the left side of the political spectrum and Krugman is well to the left.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/201...omy-slowing-down-what-can-governments-do

[elly63]

For what it's worth, and despite all of Colin's nonsensical and off topic, deflecting "arguments" against building a stadium, including such master strokes as children's education suffering, I post this, from Commish Ambrosie's fan tour in Regina.

[cjones2451]

FWIW, we elect public officials to do what they think is in the best interests of what they are in charge of (city, province, etc.) and supposedly what their constituents want.....
If we left every decision up to people on facebook, twitter, forums etc. nothing would ever get done
People would be, "I don't read, so don't build a library", "I don't cycle so don't build bike lanes", "I have a car so don't so don't expand transit".
If there is a business case that makes sense then move forward, if not then move on, but every decision is not always about straight value for dollars.
Owners of the CFL team are not going to get rich no matter what (so stop saying if they want a team they can pay for the whole stadium), but if they contribute and the stadium is something the community as a whole will use (going to a sporting event, going to a concert, going to monster truck rally, using it for sporting activities for youth, etc. using in the winter with a bubble over it) then it makes sense.
If kids are inspired by a CFL team, or play soccer on the field under a bubble in winter, you may have healthier kids overall and they may not be use as many health care dollars long term, (but don't know and it is not really quantifiable).
Again, my 2 cents, I don't live in Halifax but have friends there and I know they would take their kids to games.

[Colin May]

Leblanc et al have $60,000,000 for a CFL team and a stadium - I await the press release. Must be breaking news because no media outlet in Halifax is aware of the claim other than this from 5 weeks ago : https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/halifax-still-waiting-for-cfl-stadium-business-case-1.4260340
And you don't have enough votes on the council.

[elly63]

Apparently little Regina (and every other sizeable city in Canada) has somehow figured out how to build the best stadium in Canada without bankrupting the city. And yet with all the higher education facilities in Halifax (one of which I attended), they can't figure it out?

Too bad this wasn't for soccer (which you constantly reference) like in the auld country eh, Colin? You'd take 30 seconds to figure out how to build it.