I don't see a way Preckwinkle doesn't make the runoff, unfortunately. She's sitting in #1 right now, even if she falls it will only be to #2 position and then she still makes the runoff. Unless more scandal comes out... she has a very solid base that isn't gonna change their minds before the election.
There's still a lot of undecideds, but with such a large and confusing array of candidates and relatively minor differences between them, many of the undecideds will stay home for the first election and wait until the runoff narrows the field to two candidates that are easy to compare. Also it's Chicago, so the weather on election day is always a huge factor in determining whether undecideds and lukewarm supporters show up at the polls.
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She's sitting at "number 1" well within margin of error with three other candidates. She may as well be sitting at "number 4"... That poll literally means nothing other than this is a 4 person race right now.
Anyone lumping Preckwinkle, Mendoza and Lightfoot together as "minority leftist females" and thus essentially the same candidate is outing themselves as insincere. It's the exact type of identity politics "conservatives" are constantly railing against.
Vallas is my first choice, but with him being so low in the polls I am looking at Lightfoot.
Do people really see Daley as some type of small-government reformer? A Daley?
^^^ The sad part is Bill Daley is easily the "best Daley" in terms of his credentials as a technocrat with new ideas which is why he hasn't run for Mayor or anything like that until now. He is much more similar to Rahm than anyone else in is family. But unfortunately he is a Daley which blights his potential as a candidate. He is saying things no one else dares propose like cut the number of aldermen and institute term limits (oh the irony right?).
I’m frankly kind of shocked and disappointed that there haven’t been more attack ads and alarm bells rung against Preckwinkle. She is clearly the tone deaf outlier here and a threat to everything that makes Chicago thrive amidst demographic decline.
Her actions show that she despises the taxpayer, cares little about public safety and controlling taxes and fees which are going up year after year. She’s never said a word about Chicago and it’s competitiveness in the world—and I’m wagering that she doesn’t even really care.
There are too many content people out there just humming along, and they will be woken up with a jolt if she becomes Mayor. All of a sudden people will think, “what the hell is going on here, how did we let this lady who seemed so ‘cool and hip’ become mayor?” She will be the class warfare Mayor with an arrow of disdain pointed squarely at anyone who is white or runs a business.
A Rahm—Preckwinkle transformation will make the Bloomberg—DeBlasio transformation look like an afternoon raft ride on a calm lake.
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I’m frankly kind of shocked and disappointed that there haven’t been more attack ads and alarm bells rung against Preckwinkle. She is clearly the tone deaf outlier here and a threat to everything that makes Chicago thrive amidst demographic decline.
Her actions show that she despises the taxpayer, cares little about public safety and controlling taxes and fees which are going up year after year. She’s never said a word about Chicago and it’s competitiveness in the world—and I’m wagering that she doesn’t even really care.
I don't think Preckwinkle has a very high ceiling. She has a great chance to get into the run-off (largely due to CTU and other union support), but I think she loses one-on-one to Daley, Mendoza or Lightfoot.
I don't think Preckwinkle has a very high ceiling. She has a great chance to get into the run-off (largely due to CTU and other union support), but I think she loses one-on-one to Daley, Mendoza or Lightfoot.
i agree. sodawinkle has her fiercely loyal base (CTU and their ilk), but her negatives are really high among the john q. six-pack types.
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The Preckwinkle/CTU thugs probably have a solid a ground game, and could pull the election out from right under everybody else. They may have more motivation to vote than the happy-go-lucky guy on the north side who has ample distraction (ie texting their friends, meeting up and heading to the 'latest' Korean fusion spot, visiting a hip new spa, etc...)
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i agree. sodawinkle has her fiercely loyal base (CTU and their ilk), but her negatives are really high among the john q. six-pack types.
Quote:
Originally Posted by moorhosj
I don't think Preckwinkle has a very high ceiling. She has a great chance to get into the run-off (largely due to CTU and other union support), but I think she loses one-on-one to Daley, Mendoza or Lightfoot.
Seems plausible. Seems like all the more reason to use ranked-choice voting rather than a 2-candidate runoff election.
Me droning on about why ranked choice is better ...
We could very well end up with two people with institutional support, but who are very unpopular with most of the rest of voters. With the current system, say Vallas is hardly anyone's first or second choice, and only 7% picked him first and 7% second, but 60% would find him tolerable and rank him as a third choice, and then Preckwinkle got 15% of the 1st choice vote and 5% of the second-place vote, and zero as a third-place, and Daley got 14% of the first place, 6% of the second-place and also zero for third-place. We'd end up with two run-off candidates that each were not in the top 3 choices for 80% of voters and no chance to actually elect someone that 60% of voters might not be excited about, but would be comfortable with. That's the kind of thing that scares me in races with huge numbers of candidates.
That's pretty close to exactly how Trump won, for example, despite being a candidate that roughly 60% of the population is extremely unhappy with, and before he dominated the Republican Party, probably even 50% of Republicans were extremely unhappy with (now that he's elected, moderate Republicans mostly left the party or got radicalized in a echo chamber).
And even on the Democrat's side, probably 40% of Democrats strongly felt Clinton wasn't the best candidate for the general election, but her opponents split the rest of the votes up in such a way that Clinton managed to gain enough momentum to easily win the nomination.
So, basically, both parties fielded candidates that had some very strong advocates within their parties, but who all had very high negatives even within their own party, meaning that when they met in the general, neither outright had a majority of people wanting to vote *for* one of them, and they both were reliant on picking up voters who were mainly motivated by even stronger disdain for the competitor. In a better system, we'd be much more likely to end up with truly centrist candidates that would result in a more stable set of policies and, importantly, a more stable foreign policy.
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Building a More Dangerous Chicago
Mayoral candidate Toni Preckwinkle’s wrongheaded proposals would make the city even more crime-ridden than it already is.
Rafael A. Mangual
February 8, 2019
Quote:
Chicago suffered 572 homicides last year and more than 2,900 shootings, and leading mayoral candidate Toni Preckwinkle says that lowering the violent-crime rate is a top priority. But her 15-point criminal-justice plan, “Building a Safer Chicago,” gravely misdiagnoses what’s driving crime and offers policy prescriptions that won’t make the city safer.
Preckwinkle assumes that crime in Chicago is driven by over-incarceration of individuals for “nonviolent” offenses; a lack of employment, resources, and investment on the South and West Sides; “lax gun laws in border states like Wisconsin, Indiana, and major gun hubs like Mississippi and Georgia”; and incompetence on the part of the Chicago Police Department. She’s wrong on all counts.
According to the Illinois Department of Corrections, the majority of prisoners in the state committed serious or violent felonies, not nonviolent drug offenses. Indeed, five violent-offense categories—homicide, sexual assault/rape, assault/battery, robbery, and weapons violations—account for 57.8 percent of all Illinois state prisoners, 48.1 percent of whom committed their crimes in Cook County. Only 16.1 percent of inmates were convicted of a controlled-substance violation.
Also, most shootings and homicides in Chicago are perpetrated by repeat offenders, on whom the justice system has been too lenient, not too harsh. According to a January 2017 study by the University of Chicago Crime Lab, “around 90 percent [of those arrested for a homicide or shooting in Chicago in 2015 and 2016] had at least one prior arrest.” On average, someone arrested for a homicide or shooting had “nearly 12 prior arrests, with almost 45 percent having had more than 10 prior arrests.” These alarming statistics have led Chicago Police Superintendent Eddie Johnson to call for tougher penalties for repeat offenders.
Yet the city’s judges don’t seem inclined to help. “Recognizance bonds are given to gun offenders, domestic abusers, and thieves with significant criminal backgrounds as if they are first-time arrestees,” said a Cook County assistant state’s attorney, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He noted that they “often return with a new charge before the original one is even litigated.”
Here's more--yes--this person actually wants to be Chicago's Mayor:
Quote:
Finally, it’s surprising that Preckwinkle would blame the city’s violent crime on the institution doing the most to stop it. She calls the Chicago Police Department “one of the least effective large police forces in the United States,” but judicial and corrections systems consistently undermine the CPD’s efforts, releasing dangerous offenders or failing to sentence them to appropriate jail or prison time. Chicago has “the most police per capita of any American city with a population over one million people,” Preckwinkle points out, seeing this fact as proof of the CPD’s ineffectiveness.
Read more at the link above.
She's really that scary, guys
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^^^ The good news is that as much as the bleeding brain liberal crowd loves her, other unions (like the Police Union) are likely to go after her twice as hard as the CTU will push for her. Also, as long as a Daley or Mendoza or someone like that makes it to the runoff, expect the Chicago business crowd to bury Taxwinkle under like $1 billion in campaign contributions. At the end of the day I expect folks like KG to torch any threat to their interests. Even in the worst case Chico-Taxwinkle runoff expect that crowd to simply buy off Chico and make him into Daley II the sequel.
Honestly, having one of these dipshit "let's buy votes from the union with taxpayer dollars!" types might bring about the fiscal apocalypse sooner which is ultimately what Illinois needs. This state and city are barely solvent in the longest post war economic expansion during the lowest interest rates in human history. Now imagine how quickly what little solvency we have goes up in smoke if the Fed is forced to actually push interest rates AND a recession ensues.
The reality is that the ultimate solution to our union and pension problem lies in the Supreme Court Building in Washington DC where the consequences of our grotesque fiscal mismanagement will ultimately be decided. Eventually inflation will rear its ugly head and eventually interest rates will have to rise which will inevitably lead to collapsing revenue for the state and city. I don't see how we don't achieve the first ever hard default of a US State some time in the next 10-20 years. At that point we will simply be locked out of the bond market and the budget will automatically balance itself until such a time as the Federal government works out what happens when a State goes belly up. To a degree I welcome our new cheesecake fiend in chief JB as he will undoubtedly push us ever closer to the edge... The sooner we go bankrupt and the Federal court system throws out our silly constitutional pension amendment, the better. Existing pensioners are likely to see a nice haircut, but what do you expect when you spend decades electing yourself a raise...
Lightfoot did some work to brandish her independent reformer credentials yesterday when she called out Rep. Robert Martwick to his face. Martwick is 38th Ward committeeman, a longtime ally of Berrios and Preckwinkle and a tax appeal lawyer (a 3-for-1 of corruption).
Quote:
Mayoral candidate Lori Lightfoot got into a shouting match with a political ally of candidate Toni Preckwinkle when he crashed a downtown news conference Lightfoot called Monday morning to criticize his proposal to change how the Cook County assessor post is filled.
Lightfoot accused state Rep. Robert Martwick of introducing his bill in Springfield to appoint, rather than elect, the assessor in a bid to protect a property assessment system she said benefits large property owners and property appeals attorneys to the detriment of poor and working class homeowners.
Building a More Dangerous Chicago
Mayoral candidate Toni Preckwinkle’s wrongheaded proposals would make the city even more crime-ridden than it already is.
...
I'm not in a position to expertly evaluate the CPD, but just as a liberal citizen who does like and respect police in general I found it disturbing when the CPD was shown to have what can only be described as a torture station, and when they tried to cover up the shooting of an unarmed young male, and I believe that the destruction things like that cause when it comes to community relations is a direct contributor to a homicide clearance rate of less than 1 in 5. I'm not sorry to state unequivocally that only solving 17.5% of murders is completely unacceptable and can't possibly be read as anything except poor police culture. If you want to make excuses, the clearance rate in Los Angeles is over 70% and in Dallas, which is famous for good community relations, it's nearly 60%. So I can't imagine anything close to a reasonable excuse for a clearance rate of 17.5% for homicides in Chicago.
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[SIZE="1"]I like travel and photography - check out my [URL="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ericmathiasen/"]Flickr page[/URL].
CURRENT GEAR: Nikon Z6, Nikon Z 14-30mm f4 S, Nikon Z 24-70mm f/4 S, Nikon 50mm f1.4G
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I'm not in a position to expertly evaluate the CPD, but just as a liberal citizen who does like and respect police in general I found it disturbing when the CPD was shown to have what can only be described as a torture station, and when they tried to cover up the shooting of an unarmed young male, and I believe that the destruction things like that cause when it comes to community relations is a direct contributor to a homicide clearance rate of less than 1 in 5. I'm not sorry to state unequivocally that only solving 17.5% of murders is completely unacceptable and can't possibly be read as anything except poor police culture. If you want to make excuses, the clearance rate in Los Angeles is over 70% and in Dallas, which is famous for good community relations, it's nearly 60%. So I can't imagine anything close to a reasonable excuse for a clearance rate of 17.5% for homicides in Chicago.
I'm not in a position to expertly evaluate the CPD, but just as a liberal citizen who does like and respect police in general I found it disturbing when the CPD was shown to have what can only be described as a torture station, and when they tried to cover up the shooting of an unarmed young male, and I believe that the destruction things like that cause when it comes to community relations is a direct contributor to a homicide clearance rate of less than 1 in 5. I'm not sorry to state unequivocally that only solving 17.5% of murders is completely unacceptable and can't possibly be read as anything except poor police culture. If you want to make excuses, the clearance rate in Los Angeles is over 70% and in Dallas, which is famous for good community relations, it's nearly 60%. So I can't imagine anything close to a reasonable excuse for a clearance rate of 17.5% for homicides in Chicago.
Derrick Lewis knew he wasn’t guilty of committing drug-related crimes in the mid-2000s. But he pleaded guilty to the cases in his mid-20s because he knew he faced the possibility of decades in prison, he said.
Lewis, now 39 years old, didn’t have money to hire a private attorney to help fight the allegations against him. He ended up doing two stints in prison on drug-related cases that since have been tied to disgraced former Chicago police Sgt. Ronald Watts.
On Monday, Lewis finally got some sense of justice as he and eight other men, all African-American, filed into Cook County Circuit Judge LeRoy Martin Jr.’s courtroom and stood before him as prosecutors filed a motion to vacate their convictions. Martin overturned all of the convictions during a brief hearing.
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