Quote:
Originally Posted by WheresMyKeys
So first time posting but long time follower. With all the talk about finding companies and a potential demand slow down, I still think there is a lot of stuff in the pipeline from some pretty determined developers.
Looking back at each decade here are the number of towers built 400ft plus. Clearly the 80’s was elite and for obvious reasons. But wouldn’t you speculate that we will eclipse our 80’s output in the 2020’s?
10’s = 5 (include the W)
00’s = 5
90’s = 5
80’s = 7
70’s = 5
Older= 5
Here’s what I’m hoping to be completed in the 20’s... even if two of these don’t come to fruition (and assuming no other pleasant surprises) this still puts us at 9 - the best decade on record!
Schuylkill Yards = 3 towers
Comcast = 1
The Laurel = 1
Jewelers Row = 1
8th and Market = 1
1301 Market = 1
SLS International =1
1001 S Broad St = 1
Cathedral Square = 1
Thoughts?
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I like your attitude and energy-- but its hard for me to delineate this by decades as the 80s and 90s towers were part of the same real estate cycle, so I count that as one stretch with 12 towers. There were no highrise completions between 1992 and 2004.
Of the 20's list, the last five there have a low likelihood of happening this cycle-- the former SLS being the exception, it may be the 10 Rittenhouse of this cycle (and while I'm in the comparing mood, I think the Laurel is going to be the Murano of this cycle). 1001 South Broad will be much less of a project than proposed (if it ever happens), 8th/Market and 13th/Market are going to stay parking lots for the foreseeable future.
Not to be a Debbie Downer but I put the Jeweler's Row tower at a 50/50. If we get two Schuylkill Yards towers I'll be pleasantly surprised. Of course, I've been wrong plenty of times before.
We should appreciate that the 10's cycle produced an unprecedented amount of new lowrise construction, rowhouse construction, and rehab/reuses over a much larger area of the city than any decade since the 60s.
As for my predictions? I think we'll get more towers under 400' between Broad and the Delaware on empty lots near Vine St and in the few remaining spaces in Wash West. The former Franklin-Callowhill industrial district will get at least 2 lowrise towers and lots of townhomes. We're going to get tons and tons of 4 and 5 story apartment buildings in the peripheral neighborhoods, especially in areas like University City where the zoning allows this by-right. Some remaining lots in the core and elsewhere will get mega-luxury townhomes instead of towers (nearly all the ones of this type being built and/or proposed right now are pre-selling rapidly and the demand for them is intense, even more than for high-end condos). A few ambitious developers will try their hand at high-risk developments in far-out spots such as the industrial district by 21st and Allegheny and may try out Bridesburg or Tacony. Gentrification will start targeting depressed areas that have awesome housing stock (Strawberry Mansion, Allegheny West, Nicetown). Finally, Germantown will end up looking like a combination of Mt. Airy and Media.
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