New BC Political Discussion - POST BC Election 2017

[Feathered Friend]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

BC Liberals take a sizable lead.

edit: Lead is growing!

^ Written with only 4% of the vote in.


Now at 10% reporting and

NDP - 53% @ 644

LIB - 34% @ 414

GRN - 8%@ 96

Still early though

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by Feathered Friend

^ Written with only 4% of the vote in.


Now at 10% reporting and

NDP - 53% @ 644

LIB - 34% @ 414

GRN - 8%@ 96

Still early though

Gap is significantly closing.

Looks like a very tight race.

[Feathered Friend]

Now at 54% reporting and

NDP - 50% @ 5054

LIB - 40% @ 4120

GRN - 7%@ 741

Depends where the vote is in from, but it's looking close to over.

[Feathered Friend]

Global just called it for Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)

[misher]

Originally Posted by Feathered Friend

Global just called it for Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)

As did CBC.

I do wonder at the 1000 absentee ballots as the lead is less than 1000 votes.

Perhaps most absentee ballots are likely the people with second homes? Unlikely I guess.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

BC Liberals take a sizable lead.

edit: Lead is growing!

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Yeah NDP has taken a lead now. Seems like all the BC Green voters went to the Liberals and NDP again, though with a higher number going to the NDP.

I just saw the news on CBC too. Hmm how did the plot twist even take place?

Anyway congratulations to Sheila Malcolmson...?

[Tfreder]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

I work for the public sector (in the Vancouver area) and can solidly say that the mean age of the employee there is in their late 40's. Many of them absolutely loath the NDP and fear their property prices dropping. Many of those nearing retirement have firm plans to sell and move to the Interior or the Island. I hear it every day. "Robbing them of their dream" will ensure they never trust or vote for a socialist government again.

The next generation is also bound to an economy tied to real estate. Decreasing demand and softening the market will undoubtedly result in many layoffs as projects are delayed/stalled. Realtors, mortgage brokers, specialists, underwriters, insurance brokers, construction, restoration workers etc...will all be impacted.

As bad as the Liberals were ethically, the economy in BC boomed with them in power. The NDP are literally catering to the poor and only the poor. Affordability was propped up to a major issue when most were doing comfortably well. Those that were wise have migrated elsewhere. The NDP has to get with the times and realize there is a lot at stake here.

With regards to Nanaimo. I know a Liberal constituency assistant that has stated that the NDP MLA's have flooded the area doing last minute campaigning and door canvassing. Based on what I am hearing...it's a lost cause. The Liberals are already preparing for a provincial election in the spring/summer.

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Based on the latest polls...The Liberals are expected to take Nanaimo with ease. Confirms what we know: intervention in the housing market and the speculation tax is widely unpopular.

The NDP's biggest failure has been trying to appease the lower class. The group that doesn't vote or care about politics.

Just 2 quick examples of why anyone who reads these types of threads on SSP should take what our very own "political pundits" say with a grain of salt.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by Tfreder

Just 2 quick examples of why anyone who reads these types of threads on SSP should take what our very own "political pundits" say with a grain of salt.

Greens took a near 12% hit and absolutely got destroyed this round. Despite the loss, this is a very encouraging sign for the Liberals going forward.

My guess is the poll last week spooked a lot of Green voters to vote NDP. The Greens are done for now and this will reflect in the next provincial election. It will either be a Lib or NDP majority then.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Gap is significantly closing.

Looks like a very tight race.

Not.
https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/01...ction-results/

[a very long weekend]

Nanaimo hasn't ever voted non-NDP in my lifetime, I'm surprised that people on here who seem to follow politics somewhat closely deluded themselves into thinking that it would ever flip to the LPBC.

Also, it's nuts for people to cheer high housing prices. Maybe you missed the chance to cash out, maybe you'll have to get out of selling real estate and find an actual job, maybe you bought in at the wrong time - the overall good is for housing to be much more affordable.

Average people should be investing in actual productive investments, not in real estate speculation. The fact that so many people have so much of their "net worth" stored in a dwelling is not good. NDP has some dumb ideas, but making housing affordable is a very good idea, even if some of the people who'd counted on suckers/speculators/foreigners to fund their retirement are now forced to face the fact of not having lucked out.

[csbvan]

Not even close, as one would expect in Nanaimo. Both major parties grew in support, which is surprising for the NDP. As a left wing party in a byelection, and as incumbent government, that's a feat.

[Feathered Friend]

Originally Posted by a very long weekend

Nanaimo hasn't ever voted non-NDP in my lifetime

Suddenly, I feel very old... 2001 wasn't that long ago, was it?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Greens took a near 12% hit and absolutely got destroyed this round. Despite the loss, this is a very encouraging sign for the Liberals going forward.

My guess is the poll last week spooked a lot of Green voters to vote NDP. The Greens are done for now and this will reflect in the next provincial election. It will either be a Lib or NDP majority then.

Actually on the face of it more Green votes went to the BC Liberals and they still didn’t win. It isn’t a surprising pattern, with a chance to truly alter the balance of power in a byelection voters migrated to the two parties that had a chance of winning.

[misher]

Originally Posted by a very long weekend

Nanaimo hasn't ever voted non-NDP in my lifetime, I'm surprised that people on here who seem to follow politics somewhat closely deluded themselves into thinking that it would ever flip to the LPBC.

Also, it's nuts for people to cheer high housing prices. Maybe you missed the chance to cash out, maybe you'll have to get out of selling real estate and find an actual job, maybe you bought in at the wrong time - the overall good is for housing to be much more affordable.

Average people should be investing in actual productive investments, not in real estate speculation. The fact that so many people have so much of their "net worth" stored in a dwelling is not good. NDP has some dumb ideas, but making housing affordable is a very good idea, even if some of the people who'd counted on suckers/speculators/foreigners to fund their retirement are now forced to face the fact of not having lucked out.

Funnily enough I think foreign buyers, immigrants, money launderers and speculators are the ones most looking forward to if our housing prices drop. Cheaper to buy more and everyone’s predicting long term rapid price increases up to 2025. With locals unable to get mortgages it’s going to be those who bring in cash who are king. I feel like our environment is more favorable to speculation than two years ago because price to rent ratio is lower and prices in general have stagnated. We don’t seem to have much legislation against actual speculation since most speculators will rent out units as there going for maximum profit. It won’t be born and bred locals buying our housing that’s for sure.


Also loved how Weaver pointed out the poll showing the Liberals ahead lost the Greens tons of voters (people said that poll was Liberal propaganda but the NDP benefitted the most so maybe not? ) and he’s going to bring in a bill to ban advance polling. I totally agree with this, people shouldn’t be pushed to vote for what they feel the second best option is. And if we are doing that, then we should create a vote system where if the first choice loses the cards automatically go to the second choice. Otherwise Greens or any future 3rd party will be screwed.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Not even close, as one would expect in Nanaimo. Both major parties grew in support, which is surprising for the NDP. As a left wing party in a byelection, and as incumbent government, that's a feat.

Yes, by-elections heavily favor the opposition party in general. The governing party winning by a significant margin is a big deal. I suspect many Green voters went to vote strategically.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Based on the latest polls...The Liberals are expected to take Nanaimo with ease. Confirms what we know: intervention in the housing market and the speculation tax is widely unpopular.

The NDP's biggest failure has been trying to appease the lower class. The group that doesn't vote or care about politics.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Yes, he might want to have a word with the gilets jaunes about the theory the poor don't care about politics.

[Ben Dover]

Hello, new member.

I for one, am glad to see the Greens LOSE support...it's a party with a "noble" cause, but should always remain in opposition status.

I am also glad to see the NDP maintain their hold of this seat...because if nothing else, it means it doesn't go to another Liberal.
Ever since they were elected, I've said that (in time) the BC Liberals would be exposed as THE MOST CORRUPT administration, this province has ever seen...and slowly this is coming to pass.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by Ben Dover

Hello, new member.

I for one, am glad to see the Greens LOSE support...it's a party with a "noble" cause, but should always remain in opposition status.

I am also glad to see the NDP maintain their hold of this seat...because if nothing else, it means it doesn't go to another Liberal.
Ever since they were elected, I've said that (in time) the BC Liberals would be exposed as THE MOST CORRUPT administration, this province has ever seen...and slowly this is coming to pass.

Kind of like this: https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia....-fraud-scandal ?

To the point of triggering a rebranding of the provincial liberal party?

[misher]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Kind of like this: https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia....-fraud-scandal ?

To the point of triggering a rebranding of the provincial liberal party?

Any government that's in power for over a decade is going to have some scandals come out. So far its been relatively mild, a Liberal speaker finding that the legislature (not the Liberals) were taking money to the tune of a couple million does not corruption make. But the report into the past may find that past speakers allowed it to happen, who knows.

Having crime occur while their in power isn't corruption either. As has been pointed out to defend the NDP from the recent money laundering investigations that failed, the Federal government is in charge of stopping money laundering https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/P-24.501/.

So far I haven't seen any obvious signs of corruption that impinge on the reputation of the party itself showing that it or its members took money to influence their decisions. Remember that disliking their policies is not corruption and I hate how easily that word is used. You may dislike policies but to accuse people of being criminal or corrupt you need a lot more to go on. To my knowledge everyone with a brain knew our current regulations/rules and that crime happens.


And to make things clear, given the police resources are hand, I'd choose to focus resources towards violent crime in the government's shoes too. BC lags behind the country at laying charges, a strong indicator that our police forces/justice system are overworked. Between murders and money launderers I'd choose to focus on the former, wouldn't you?

B.C.’s crime clearance rate — the percentage of crimes in which charges are laid — for all offences was a shockingly low 27.6 per cent, well below the national rate of 41.4. (The violent crime clearance rate was 57.8 per cent, up from 55.9 per cent in 2015, but below the Canada average of 75.3 per cent. The B.C. property crime clearance rate was a lousy 13.5 per cent, again well under the national rate of 21.2 per cent.)

The good news is that overall crime is down in the province. But the numbers show that B.C. police by a pretty wide margin are not solving crimes as well as their colleagues in other provinces. Improving B.C.’s clearance rate ought to be a top priority for police moving forward.

https://theprovince.com/opinion/colu...-c-crime-stats