Confederation Line (Stage 1) | In Service 1.0

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

We haven't even put a line on a map for Line 2 yet, and I mean Line 2 that serves downtown.

Until there's LRT to every outer suburb, it's not likely we'll see any movement on that front, anyway.

I'm still waiting to hear or see anything from the Watson government about how they plan to resolve the continuing fustercluck that is bus transit within the downtown core and its adjacent old-stock neighbourhoods, where it's increasingly taking an hour or more for a bus to move 4 or 5 km. Yet god forbit there should be missed runs or a broken shelter in Barrhaven.

[kmcamp]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Buses won't be much of a back-up plan when all the Transitways are ripped out and downtown bus lanes are removed.

I agree with lrt's freind that our reliance on one line through downtown will be a major issue should it be shutdown for whatever reason. If Gatineau could somehow find a way to fund and built a tunnel to connect the planned Bayview and Rideau termini, that would be a huge help.

In most other cities, there is an alternative. Montreal had two lines through downtown day 1.

Toronto built the "U" within a few years.

Calgary surface route can be used by buses, should the need arise.

Vancouver took a few decades before a second line though downtown was built (and this new line has capacity limitations).

Edmonton has had one rail route through downtown for the last 40 years however, it caries half the passengers as Confederation. They are now building a second line through downtown.

Does anyone have stats on how often rail lines breakdown in other cities?

Here's an article about Montreal's reliability.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.1367912

However when talking shutdowns, it's unlikely that the entire line would be shutdown for any extended time. Parts of it are more likely, which would require a bus bridge like most other cities do. The Trillium line is a bad comparison point, because it's single track nature causes the whole thing to go down whenever there's a problem somewhere on the line.


Toronto's U is still a single line, so it's not a big improvement than what we have. It provides a bit of redundancy but not in comparison to Montreal.

Vancouver is in a worse boat then us, 70% of the traffic comes from a single direction, and the Canada line is too far to the West to make any difference if the expo line shuts down

[Gat-Train]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

How do we deal with shutdowns when so many buses and bus operators will be eliminated and there are really no other alternatives?

It's quite simple, actually. Simply mandate that all non-essential employees get a day off when that happens. There's no reason all the government workers have to get to their desks when there's a blizzard or other disruption to the transportation network.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by kmcamp

Here's an article about Montreal's reliability.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.1367912

However when talking shutdowns, it's unlikely that the entire line would be shutdown for any extended time. Parts of it are more likely, which would require a bus bridge like most other cities do. The Trillium line is a bad comparison point, because it's single track nature causes the whole thing to go down whenever there's a problem somewhere on the line.


Toronto's U is still a single line, so it's not a big improvement than what we have. It provides a bit of redundancy but not in comparison to Montreal.

Vancouver is in a worse boat then us, 70% of the traffic comes from a single direction, and the Canada line is too far to the West to make any difference if the expo line shuts down

Thank you for sharing information on Montreal. Montreal's metro has one advantage, being 100% underground and not exposed to weather issues.

We know that trains are more weather resistant than buses but they are not immune.

One of the reasons why Ottawa switched from streetcars to buses was the inability of streetcars to bypass problems.

For the reason presented, the Confederation Line should be more reliable than the Trillium Line.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Gat-Train

It's quite simple, actually. Simply mandate that all non-essential employees get a day off when that happens. There's no reason all the government workers have to get to their desks when there's a blizzard or other disruption to the transportation network.

It is hard to justify this when severe weather is not the reason for a rail shutdown. Hopefully, most shutdowns will be of short duration, but I imagine the public will be pissed about delays until they are used to the new reality.

[Truenorth00]

Two lines downtown. Not happening for at least a decade. And probably not for another two or even three. Regardless of what people think, Ottawa does not have the population to sustain that kind of investment. And won't for the time period of all the forecasts that are out there.

We live in a time period where transit funding comes from three levels of government. And given that another line through the core will be a multi-billion dollar proposition, those other governments will be indeed be asking why it's warranted over so many other priorities throughout the province and country.

It's going to take a solid 20 years to finish those suburban extensions of the Confederation Line and then to rebuild the Trillium Line to the same standard as the Confederation Line. Along with a possible Carling LRT and Baseline-Heron-Walkley BRT.

Besides, there's a second LRT line being planned through the downtown core. It's on the other side of the river.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Two lines downtown. Not happening for at least a decade. And probably not for another two or even three. Regardless of what people think, Ottawa does not have the population to sustain that kind of investment. And won't for the time period of all the forecasts that are out there.

We live in a time period where transit funding comes from three levels of government. And given that another line through the core will be a multi-billion dollar proposition, those other governments will be indeed be asking why it's warranted over so many other priorities throughout the province and country.

It's going to take a solid 20 years to finish those suburban extensions of the Confederation Line and then to rebuild the Trillium Line to the same standard as the Confederation Line. Along with a possible Carling LRT and Baseline-Heron-Walkley BRT.

Besides, there's a second LRT line being planned through the downtown core. It's on the other side of the river.

Within the next 15 years, we could see all the transitways converted to LRT. It makes sense that as new lines are added, the Central LRT will reach crush load quickly and at that point, regardless of the status of the extensions, a second line downtown would be put in.

[J.OT13]

Thanks kmcamp for the Montreal article.

8 to 12 20-minute interruptions per month seems like a lot.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Within the next 15 years, we could see all the transitways converted to LRT. It makes sense that as new lines are added, the Central LRT will reach crush load quickly and at that point, regardless of the status of the extensions, a second line downtown would be put in.

I can’t see any scenario where the LRT reaches crush load in the next 15 years. The new LRT lines are just replacing existing services and the initial capacity is less than half the maximum capacity on the line.

Plus the city’s largest employer is doing its best to push workers out of offices and into telework.

[J.OT13]

With the City trying to force as many people on to Line 1, often unnecessarily, and the development planned and u/c along the line, I do think capacity will be reached within the next 2 or 3 decades. At the very least, the max 18,000 phpd of the 98 meter trains will be reached quickly.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

With the City trying to force as many people on to Line 1, often unnecessarily, and the development planned and u/c along the line, I do think capacity will be reached within the next 2 or 3 decades. At the very least, the max 18,000 phpd of the 98 meter trains will be reached quickly.

Maybe, but the upgrade to 24k is relatively straightforward.

[J.OT13]

Implementation should be simple, but the City has never divulged the cost of the platform expansions and train extensions.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Within the next 15 years, we could see all the transitways converted to LRT. It makes sense that as new lines are added, the Central LRT will reach crush load quickly and at that point, regardless of the status of the extensions, a second line downtown would be put in.

Originally Posted by J.OT13

With the City trying to force as many people on to Line 1, often unnecessarily, and the development planned and u/c along the line, I do think capacity will be reached within the next 2 or 3 decades. At the very least, the max 18,000 phpd of the 98 meter trains will be reached quickly.

Originally Posted by acottawa

I can’t see any scenario where the LRT reaches crush load in the next 15 years. The new LRT lines are just replacing existing services and the initial capacity is less than half the maximum capacity on the line.

Plus the city’s largest employer is doing its best to push workers out of offices and into telework.

In the year 2041, Ottawa will have 34% more people as per provincial projections:

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/table12.html

Table 12.2

I'm with acottawa on this. 18 000 pphpd in 2-3 decades is possible. But probably not in 15 years, unless somehow there's also an increase in transit modal share and more downtown focused commuting.

Dunno about you guys. But if, in 15 years, with 5G and fibre prevalent throughout the city, more of us can't telecommute, I'll think we have failed.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Maybe, but the upgrade to 24k is relatively straightforward.

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Implementation should be simple, but the City has never divulged the cost of the platform expansions and train extensions.

Didn't they rough in larger platforms?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Didn't they rough in larger platforms?

I think just the underground stations. The rest need some sort of expansion.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

In the year 2041, Ottawa will have 34% more people as per provincial projections:

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/table12.html

Table 12.2

Plus a lot of that growth is people over 80 who will probably not be filling trains at crush load time.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think just the underground stations. The rest need some sort of expansion.

Are the above ground stations really that expensive to expand? Just concrete pads? No?

And didn't they already build some larger platforms? I am thinking of Cyrville as an example.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Are the above ground stations really that expensive to expand? Just concrete pads? No?

And didn't they already build some larger platforms? I am thinking of Cyrville as an example.

I would assume it I said pretty straightforward. Is Cyrville already 120m?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I would assume it I said pretty straightforward. Is Cyrville already 120m?

I believe it might be already. Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong.

[J.OT13]

Concrete pads with integrated heating and extend the covered structure. They would also need to order and install additional modules on the train sets.

Cyrville has a longer platform because the western part is used for faregates. They will need to expand eastward to accommodate the 120 meter trains.

http://www.octranspo.com/ready4rail/cyrville
http://maps.ottawa.ca/geoottawa/

Based on a 2014 Calgary Herald article, the estimated cost of expanding platforms to accommodate an extra car was $300 million. The article doesn't specify the length of the expansion (ours would be 10 meters for a total of 100 meter platforms, not the 120 originally planned). Theirs are high floor platforms, which are likely more expensive, but I assume the cost to extend our trains and re-program the automated system might be more than their new cars and electrical components.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/calgary/Four+project+price+hits+300M/10089255/story.html