YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Mac Write]

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[Johnny Aussie]

November stats

Solid gains right across the board.

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/...november/traffic_updatenov2018.pdf?la=en

Overall up 5.4%
Domestic up 4.6%
International up 6.2%

Breakdown intl
Transborder up 5.3%
Asia Pacific up 7.8%
Europe up 5.2%
Misc intl up 6.6%

YTD overall up 7.7% an increase of over 1.7M
YTD international up 9.0% an increase of over 1M compared to last year.

And so nobody loses any sleep about SEA....
SEA reported its November numbers too.
Intl was up only 2.6% in November. YTD up 6.4% an increase of only 301,000 to just over 5,000,000 (YVR YTD is over 12.4 million)

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

November stats

Solid gains right across the board.

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/...november/traffic_updatenov2018.pdf?la=en

Overall up 5.4%
Domestic up 4.6%
International up 6.2%

Breakdown intl
Transborder up 5.3%
Asia Pacific up 7.8%
Europe up 5.2%
Misc intl up 6.6%

YTD overall up 7.7% an increase of over 1.7M
YTD international up 9.0% an increase of over 1M compared to last year.

If December have the same increase as seen in November, YVR will end the year with 25.98M passengers.

To reach 26M, December traffic need to go up by at least 6.0%.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by whatnext

An article with WS CEO Ed Sims in the FP today:
'We've just grown too big, too fast:' CEO Ed Sims taps the brakes at WestJet

If memory serves, didn't WS shift a lot of emphasis to YVR after oil collapsed in AB in 2014? I guess they're just shifting it back there now.

It's a bit of gamble right now in YYC... it's probably underserved, but the economy isn't doing great... but then again maybe it's a good time to take a risk as when it's booming they'll already have a foothold.

Interesting comment that transiting passengers will help hedge against Alberta's heavy oil focus... but one problem with that is the domestic to international transfer at YYC is horrendously long.

I haven't transited at YYC yet... but is it still as bad as it was when they launched? Any talk of a proper people mover instead of golf carts?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

It's a bit of gamble right now in YYC... it's probably underserved, but the economy isn't doing great... but then again maybe it's a good time to take a risk as when it's booming they'll already have a foothold.

Interesting comment that transiting passengers will help hedge against Alberta's heavy oil focus... but one problem with that is the domestic to international transfer at YYC is horrendously long.

I haven't transited at YYC yet... but is it still as bad as it was when they launched? Any talk of a proper people mover instead of golf carts?

I just went back to Westjet's August 2018 press release and looked at all the additions they were making from YYC this winter. The number of domestic increases is staggering yet YYC only showed a 4% increase in November (YVR Domestic on the other hand grew 4.6% in November). Add in all the new Westjet Link flights that were added Year-round and I'm tipping a lot of that capacity added at YYC is not being absorbed. Perhaps some of those additions didn't occur in November.

For a city its size and comparable to other cities in North America, it's probably not underserved internationally. Recent adjustments by airlines indicate it's a struggle, in some cases, to make routes work there just like YEG. And, again, as stated before, they are publicly admitting they will need connections to help make these new routes work.

Interesting too that YEG domestic YTD has grown almost exactly the same as YVR despite Flair setting up their "hub" there.

[nname]

Can say for other airlines, but for AC, even though there's no announcement of game-changing new destinations, seems like they are still adding quite a bit of capacity at YVR.

In term of frequency, my preliminary number shows this year YVR have the biggest increase from AC out of the 4 hubs with net total of about 7 daily additional flights. Can't say about the capacity though, as I'll have to enter all the flights for next summer into my spreadsheet first

Something I'd noticed earlier... the second daily for YZF will start on Aug 1 this year. In comparison, August last year had no service to YZF, and the second daily was started only in November.

Also, every time I checked AM schedule, more flights had been added. Now the third flight runs all the way to the end of April, running on most Sat and Sun for the month.

As for Flair, so far this year's operation at YVR seems to be smaller compared to last year:
- daily YEG that continues to YYZ (compared to 2-3x daily to YEG last summer)
- 5x weekly YYC (6x last summer)
- 5x weekly YWG (2x last summer)
No more direct service to YLW.

[Hourglass]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

It's a bit of gamble right now in YYC... it's probably underserved, but the economy isn't doing great... but then again maybe it's a good time to take a risk as when it's booming they'll already have a foothold.

Interesting comment that transiting passengers will help hedge against Alberta's heavy oil focus... but one problem with that is the domestic to international transfer at YYC is horrendously long.

I haven't transited at YYC yet... but is it still as bad as it was when they launched? Any talk of a proper people mover instead of golf carts?

I flew to YYZ from SFO via Calgary last October. My first time in the new international terminal.

I landed pretty late so not too many people, but I was really surprised how small the customs hall felt. Hopefully they can expand the hall somehow?

Didn't see clear signs for transiting passengers, and even the border agent seemed confused haha (you go to the left of the customs hall so actually pretty simple but don't think this would work well with large numbers of people). I was also surprised that there was no security check for transiting passengers like in HKG, SIN or LHR or basically any major transit hub -- but I've never done international to domestic transit in Vancouver or Toronto so don't know whether this is baseline or not.

The golf carts were actually pretty good since I didn't want to walk, but again, don't see this handling a lot of volume. The new terminal also seemed to have a lot of dead space, which speaks to me about a design issue.

YYC would definitely not be my first choice as a transit airport. They have work to do, and some fundamental design limitations to overcome.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Can say for other airlines, but for AC, even though there's no announcement of game-changing new destinations, seems like they are still adding quite a bit of capacity at YVR.

In term of frequency, my preliminary number shows this year YVR have the biggest increase from AC out of the 4 hubs with net total of about 7 daily additional flights. Can't say about the capacity though, as I'll have to enter all the flights for next summer into my spreadsheet first

Something I'd noticed earlier... the second daily for YZF will start on Aug 1 this year. In comparison, August last year had no service to YZF, and the second daily was started only in November.

Also, every time I checked AM schedule, more flights had been added. Now the third flight runs all the way to the end of April, running on most Sat and Sun for the month.

As for Flair, so far this year's operation at YVR seems to be smaller compared to last year:
- daily YEG that continues to YYZ (compared to 2-3x daily to YEG last summer)
- 5x weekly YYC (6x last summer)
- 5x weekly YWG (2x last summer)
No more direct service to YLW.

Yup AC continues to do well at YVR.

As for Flair, right now summer 2019 showing 17 flights per week at YVR compared to 24 last summer so down 7 flights per week. YVR-YEG was only two daily last summer. Already cut to just one flight per day to their "hub." YEG will have 38 flights per week and YYC 16 flights per week as it stands today. Both about the same as last summer but I'm sure more changes to come.

[Gordon]

How does the domestic International transit work at YVR?

[casper]

Originally Posted by Gordon

How does the domestic International transit work at YVR?

For signs for international transfer. There is a guard at the transition from the domestic to international terminal. He/she will ask to see a boarding pass, tickets, reservation etc. Basically any piece or paper etc. that shows you have an international connection. They then let you pass. No security screen.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

In term of frequency, my preliminary number shows this year YVR have the biggest increase from AC out of the 4 hubs with net total of about 7 daily additional flights.

Care to elaborate. Does this include Rouge and Express?

Also, what numbers do you get for YYZ, YUL and YYC?

[zahav]

I am still curious how Flair is keeping it together. Their frequencies and fares are both really low, I wonder how they are staying afloat!

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by zahav

I am still curious how Flair is keeping it together. Their frequencies and fares are both really low, I wonder how they are staying afloat!

Well, you know what they say. If you want to make $1 million in the airline industry, start with $1 billion.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Yup AC continues to do well at YVR.

Still a clear slowdown.

Passenger increases at YVR over the last 3 years.

2016 9.7%
2017 8.4%
2018 7.7% til Nov
.....
2019 around 5-6 %
2020 around 3-4%

Same thing is happening at YUL and YYZ. They are no different.

Richmond's projections for 2020 (29 million) and 2022 (32 million), although achievable, will be tight. A 5.5% increase in 2019 and 4.5% increase in 2020 wont be enough for 29 million in 2020.

[Gordon]

for some reason the morning American airlines flight to to Phoenix is using remote stand E85. generally there is no need for remote stand use in the winter.

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Care to elaborate. Does this include Rouge and Express?

Also, what numbers do you get for YYZ, YUL and YYC?

Mainline 1-1299, 1400-1599
Rouge 1600-1989
Express 7200-8999

I was typing all the numbers... but then figured it's much easier just to post an image of the spreadsheet:



Looking at these number, may be there will be a lot more changes to be made. More Rouge A320s are coming... and both Rouge and non-Rouge A319 need to go somewhere too?

Originally Posted by Gordon

for some reason the morning American airlines flight to to Phoenix is using remote stand E85. generally there is no need for remote stand use in the winter.

Maybe it's due to how the aircraft was parked overnight. Both E93 and E94 were open at that time, but the AC CR9 used E84 instead.

[thenoflyzone]

^

Thanks for that. Interesting stuff.

YYZ sees a decrease of 139 weekly frequencies between summer 2018 and summer 2019.

YVR sees an increase of 50 weekly frequencies (split evenly between mainline and express), and YUL an increase of 35 (pretty much all on mainline. Ironically Express and Rouge frequencies drop in Summer 2019 compared to summer 2018). YYC sees a drop of 51 frequencies.

[Johnny Aussie]

Nice work nname. You’re hired!

Like I said YVR continues to do well for AC. And a very solid second largest base for mainline. And look at all those mainline widebodies!

[CareerShow]

Originally Posted by nname

Mainline 1-1299, 1400-1599
Rouge 1600-1989
Express 7200-8999

I was typing all the numbers... but then figured it's much easier just to post an image of the spreadsheet:



Looking at these number, may be there will be a lot more changes to be made. More Rouge A320s are coming... and both Rouge and non-Rouge A319 need to go somewhere too?

Also, how did you calculate frequency per route and flight?


Maybe it's due to how the aircraft was parked overnight. Both E93 and E94 were open at that time, but the AC CR9 used E84 instead.

Great chart, just wondering what the "Flight Number" statistic tells us vs the "unique route" statistic?

[VancouverOfTheFuture]

i noticed the YVR outlet mall expansion is coming along quite fast. i am surprised they'll be fitting 35 stores in it though.

[Johnny Aussie]

I hate to nit pic but pretty sure YYC will still have 14 weekly 763s next summer (AC9/10 daily both ways).
His list does indicate further that AC is slowly winding back at YYC.