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  #2141  
Old Posted Dec 29, 2018, 12:44 PM
Joseph Potvin Joseph Potvin is offline
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Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton View Post
I still have lots more questions for you but there are two in particular I would be curious to get an answer on.

1. Why does the Moose network need to be built all at once? I know economies of scale is referenced. But can you explain that in more detail. Are there cost savings for building it all at once? Are there cost savings from an operations standpoint? Maybe I am missing something, but I don't understand why it has to be an all or nothing approach, as opposed to a phased plan?

2. Is VIA working with you, or simply saying they think regional rail is a good idea and that is about it? I see that you said you are getting generally positive feedback from them. What is that feedback? What are they saying that is less than positive? Have they unequivocally said that there is no problem using their tracks? Have they inquired about using any of the other lines you want to rehabilitate/build?
Two good questions.

First, the Moose network needs to begin out of the gate with a sufficient regional catchment area if proximity to stations is going to worth paying for. It's not for economies of scale on the cost side. Our reason is on the scale-of-revenue side. Our revenue model is based on a region-wide catchment area. If we can't do that, we don't think a commercial regional passenger rail service is financially viable. The fact is, no public sector entity in Canada’s Capital holds a mandate to operate a regional transit integration service. Even the central business district and surrounding urban residential neighbourhoods are split ¾ in Ottawa Ontario and ¼ in Gatineau Québec, with a kilometer-wide ‘moat’ between them: the Ottawa River. It's perfectly obvious that if these were the same city, the O-Train would have been crossing the PoWB from the beginning. Does anyone here suggest otherwise? There is nothing inherently wrong with the City of Ottawa looking after its own, although we suggest that it hurts its own interests when it configures self-interest in ways that result in sub-optimizing the regional system as a whole. It is possible to respect the choices that the people of Ottawa made in the past two municipal elections, while at the same time appreciating the coherence of the regional rail plan developed by former Minister of Transport David Collennette while heading up the former Mayor of Ottawa's Task Force. Well, MOOSE shares their vision for a regionally-integrate system. But we observe that a mayor and a former federal Transport Minister were unable to achieve it. So we decided to design a private sector way to accomplish it. Our business model and incentive structure are designed to self-generate adequate funds, but this requires critical mass for revenue generation. Anyone can easily do the arithmetic to estimate operations costs and a reasonable contractual apportionment of income and asset value generated by train service. But not enough value increase can be generated early enough by a railway that hardly goes anywhere, and without demonstrating to the market that we can overcome what stopped the design that arose from Collennette's Task Force.

On your second question, all meetings with VIA executives from the beginning have been positive. They have indeed said unequivocally that there is no problem using their tracks and interlining with their inter-city trains (which in any case is just consistent with industry respect for railway running rights generally, acknowledging their operating priority as the incumbent -- as also applies the Trillium Line and the O-Train). VIA executives also consider that we along with municipal and regional bus services have a common interest in providing people ways to shift out of automobiles. Obviously, it wouldn't be correct for me here to quote this or that executive at VIA. What VIA says to us is similar to what VIA says to other start-ups around Canada. But I am happy to report that they have an open collaborative "in this together" demeanor.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com
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  #2142  
Old Posted Dec 29, 2018, 12:57 PM
Joseph Potvin Joseph Potvin is offline
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Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton View Post
I referred to them as fancy bus stops
Well, you give them too much credit. I refer to them as glorified ATCO trailers. You seem to have missed the point that those are just temporary start-up stations that can be plunked down on 3/4 clear gravel beds with basic utilities, so that we can rapidly deploy the critical minimum number of stations to get service going, and therefore to internally generate the property value effect require to prime the revenue pump without dependence on government funds. The permanent station in any Linked Locality we expect will take 5 years or so, taking account of all the required public consultations, environmental assessments, financial and technical planning and so on. (Some locations will have, in effect, an existing station that just needs adaptation.)

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com
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  #2143  
Old Posted Dec 29, 2018, 1:04 PM
Joseph Potvin Joseph Potvin is offline
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Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton View Post
Lots of good questions
@JohnnyRenton If you would like to organize a public event for discussing such matters I'd be happy to participate. It would take me far too long to respond to your many questions here in writing. Certainly those ARE useful factors that need to be discussed.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com
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  #2144  
Old Posted Dec 29, 2018, 1:37 PM
Joseph Potvin Joseph Potvin is offline
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Originally Posted by Charles5 View Post
Well, I'm not an economist, but here's my crack at this figure using some basic math and simple assumptions.
FWIW, I am an career economist, conceptual and applied, and have worked in over 20 countries on diverse types of projects. Your reckoning is not bad, but you're missing many aspects of our design.

Let's be clear though. The OTHER way of doing this is to get government to fund it. Well, actually, aside from my mostly private sector career, I did work for a decade as an economist in the federal government, six of those years in expenditure analysis and reporting at TBS. So the way I look at the matter of getting government to fund something is pretty much the same as I look at the challenges of the private sector financing something. I look at the functional 'mechanics' of assembling the money and ensuring the appropriate ROI. Figuring out the internal mechanics of the cash flow for a $2B project is equally challenging in the public and private sectors.

Business model innovation in passenger rail seems to face attitudinal hurdles that do not impede projects in other industries.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com
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  #2145  
Old Posted Dec 29, 2018, 2:08 PM
Charles5 Charles5 is offline
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Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin View Post
Figuring out the internal mechanics of the cash flow for a $2B project is equally challenging in the public and private sectors.
Interesting that this is now a $2B project. Until recently I had only seen a $1B cost associated with the stand up of this proposed rail network. (EG: the MOOSE brochure of 2018 which identifies $500M for railway infrastructure upgrades, $400M for core equipment and facilities, $50M for the POW Bridge and some minor costs for studies, etc)

An additional $1B in initial capital costs would add an annual $70M in debt servicing costs in the model I had proposed earlier, and would increase the requirement for initial property values by another 20% approximately.
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  #2146  
Old Posted Dec 29, 2018, 5:32 PM
JohnnyRenton JohnnyRenton is offline
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Originally Posted by roger1818 View Post
The problem with surveys is they are only as good as the questions they ask. For example, if you asked Kanata residents if they would like rail service into central Ottawa, you would likely get a favourable response. OTOH, if you asked if they would they regularly use a train from March Rd at Carling Ave to Bayview (or Tremblay) station that only runs once an hour and takes 30 minutes to get there, the response would be less favourable, especially if it was made clear that a Confederation Line extension to Kanata would take only a few minutes longer to get all the way downtown, and would run every 9-15 minutes.
I totally agree. Thats why (if I was conducting the survey) wouldn't leave the questions open ended and vague. And what I would be most interested in are what kind of tradeoffs will people make. Would they rather a 40 minute minute ride sitting, or a 30 minute ride standing? Would a commuter coming from Smiths Falls, or someplace of equal distance, use commuter rail if it took longer to do than via their car, and also meant taking one or two trains/buses when they got into Ottawa, but was half the price? What if it only saved them 25% of the cost? And so on. Once you know peoples decision making processes, you can start to understand which changes will, and will not, be received well.
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  #2147  
Old Posted Dec 29, 2018, 5:51 PM
JohnnyRenton JohnnyRenton is offline
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Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin View Post
@JohnnyRenton If you would like to organize a public event for discussing such matters I'd be happy to participate. It would take me far too long to respond to your many questions here in writing. Certainly those ARE useful factors that need to be discussed.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com
What kind of public event are you thinking? Something along the lines of a panel discussion? A tour of some of the potential Moose communities to engage with the public? I am definitely not opposed to organizing something, but I am also not picking up the tab for the costs for something that is primarily going to be a Moose promotional event. If you want to look at doing something late spring/early summer, when the weather is nice and people are more likely to come out, then we can brainstorm and see what is worth pursuing.

And if anyone else has thoughts about what the public event could entail, where to find a good/cheap venue, etc, then don't be shy. I would be curious to see what kind of interest there might be.
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  #2148  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2018, 12:25 AM
Joseph Potvin Joseph Potvin is offline
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Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton View Post
What kind of public event are you thinking? Something along the lines of a panel discussion? ... If you want to look at doing something late spring/early summer, when the weather is nice and people are more likely to come out, then we can brainstorm and see what is worth pursuing. And if anyone else has thoughts about what the public event could entail, where to find a good/cheap venue, etc, then don't be shy. I would be curious to see what kind of interest there might be.
Carleton U hosted the first "Connect the Dots" panel discussion on MOOSE when we first thought up the approach in 2011. UQO hosted the second one in 2014. We're also on public panels and in front of municipal councils now and then. It's UOttawa's turn. You could contact the prof who's supervising the 4th yr student work there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton View Post
A tour of some of the potential Moose communities to engage with the public
That would be a lot of work.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com
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  #2149  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2018, 12:38 AM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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Originally Posted by roger1818 View Post
The problem with surveys is they are only as good as the questions they ask. For example, if you asked Kanata residents if they would like rail service into central Ottawa, you would likely get a favourable response. OTOH, if you asked if they would they regularly use a train from March Rd at Carling Ave to Bayview (or Tremblay) station that only runs once an hour and takes 30 minutes to get there, the response would be less favourable, especially if it was made clear that a Confederation Line extension to Kanata would take only a few minutes longer to get all the way downtown, and would run every 9-15 minutes.
The real question is whether they want to sell their house in Kanata and and pay a huge premium to live in a high density subdivision in a rural area, for the privilege of spending close to 3 hours a day a train of unknown frequency where the business supporting the train is dependent on voluntary contributions and could collapse at any time.
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  #2150  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2018, 1:16 AM
Allandale25 Allandale25 is offline
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Originally Posted by OCCheetos View Post
It would indeed be nice if MOOSE put some more detailed maps out themselves, but I did put together this google map of their system a while back. I guess I could update it with Gatineau's LRT plan at some point..
Thanks. That's helpful. I'll comment on it later. Joseph, I assume it's correct?
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  #2151  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2018, 4:45 PM
OCCheetos OCCheetos is offline
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I forked the map I made for O Train fans and made a version with the MOOSE lines and stations added to it. It's a bit more visually appealing I guess?
It also meant that I could add actual circles to represent the 800m radius areas around stations instead of my crude and inaccurate hand-drawn circles from before... (Version with circles)

@Joseph Potvin feel free to use it and embed it on your website or something.. (it's MIT licensed).
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  #2152  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2018, 6:53 PM
Charles5 Charles5 is offline
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Since we are talking about maps, I don't see MOOSE going with anything more than their conceptual sketch of a map at this time. The more vague it is kept the easier it is for them to explain away any specific issues or discrepancies.

I just want to comment on how I feel about the MOOSE use of a City of Ottawa map in their Section 40 Petition. Unfortunately I don't know how to link directly to the image, but it's on page 7 at the following link.

In the Petition to Transport Canada, MOOSE (Joseph Potvin) uses what is obviously a conceptual drawing by the City to demonstrate how the City would likely reconnect the rail line between the Bayview Station and the POW Bridge. Zooming in it can be seen that the proposed line does not exactly meet the old line when it goes under the Parkway. The petition goes on to say " It does show that the bridge at Sir John A. Macdonald Parkway, owned by the NCC, would need to be modified or replaced. It also shows a relatively tight curve in the track right by the riverbank, just before the Prince of Wales Bridge. Railway infrastructure safety professionals generally avoid placing curves in railways immediately ahead of bridges. This image also shows that the original approach track of the Ellwood Sub, which the City has dismantled and obstructed, did approach the Prince of Wales Bridge at a safer angle."

I find this to be rather disingenuous and somewhat petty attempt by Joseph Potvin to try and confuse the issues and discredit the City. The drawing is obviously conceptual and is clearly labelled as "Preliminary: Not for Construction". I don't think anyone actually believes that the fact that the yellow line doesn't quite line up with the underpass suggests that the City intends to specifically follow that path and need to rebuild the bridge on the Parkway. The comment about 'safety professionals' in my opinion is intended to imply that the City is unprofessional and unsafe.

There is plenty of space between the Bayview Station and the Parkway Bridge for the new alignment to reconnect with the old line. In fact, MOOSE in a previous submission to the CTA proposed several bypass routes (page 2 of link). One of those proposed bypasses is in fact the same alignment as the current Bayview Station, and another one is even another 100m to the east, and both are able to make the turn to properly align with the bridge.

It's little issues like this that I find unsettling about MOOSE. Whatever valid arguments they may have had are diminished with these petty issues. I get the sense that MOOSE's case is based on slinging enough mud and hoping that something might stick.
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  #2153  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2018, 8:06 PM
JohnnyRenton JohnnyRenton is offline
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Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin View Post
Carleton U hosted the first "Connect the Dots" panel discussion on MOOSE when we first thought up the approach in 2011. UQO hosted the second one in 2014. We're also on public panels and in front of municipal councils now and then. It's UOttawa's turn. You could contact the prof who's supervising the 4th yr student work there.

That would be a lot of work.
It would be a lot of work. But that's what is required if you want to get out and interact with the public.

I have more to say about your comments above. But it is a holiday weekend so I will come back to it another time.
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  #2154  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2018, 8:28 PM
Charles5 Charles5 is offline
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Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin View Post
Our revenue model is based on a region-wide catchment area. If we can't do that, we don't think a commercial regional passenger rail service is financially viable.
@Joseph Potvin

On that note, perhaps we can focus on one specific component of the line. Can you please explain how you see the line to Wakefield/Chelsea being brought into service, considering the CTA has already ruled against you, validating that the corridor has been discontinued and is not under Federal jurisdiction. You've lost in Provincial Court when you tried to block the removal of the rails, the rails have subsequently been removed (second link here) and the Municipality (which owns the corridor) has no interest in trains.

From what you've said above, without any one of the six legs of the network, the whole concept falls apart.

Last edited by Charles5; Dec 31, 2018 at 12:08 AM.
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  #2155  
Old Posted Dec 31, 2018, 1:59 AM
Allandale25 Allandale25 is offline
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^ Excellent points Charles
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  #2156  
Old Posted Dec 31, 2018, 3:15 PM
OtrainUser OtrainUser is offline
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And here is the reason Chelsea ripped out the tracks

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-new...he-last-spike-from-wakefield-steam-train

You have to figure you can't have reliable train service if the tracks are prone to washouts so even if Chelsea didn't rip them out, it wouldn't be wise to use them in the first place. The better idea would be to build a whole new set of elevated tracks and that would be much more expensive. I'm glad Chelsea went with the most realistic option.

So I have a question for Potvin. Is this one of the reasons you have doubled your estimate from 1 billion to 2 billion for commuter Rail?
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  #2157  
Old Posted Dec 31, 2018, 4:32 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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He lives in Chelsea. So of course, he's going to build a train to his backyard! It's not like he cares about the business case. A billion here. A billion there. Pretty soon we're talking real money!
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  #2158  
Old Posted Dec 31, 2018, 4:56 PM
Allandale25 Allandale25 is offline
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Originally Posted by OCCheetos View Post
I forked the map I made for O Train fans and made a version with the MOOSE lines and stations added to it. It's a bit more visually appealing I guess?
It also meant that I could add actual circles to represent the 800m radius areas around stations instead of my crude and inaccurate hand-drawn circles from before... (Version with circles)

@Joseph Potvin feel free to use it and embed it on your website or something.. (it's MIT licensed).
Thanks for posting this.
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  #2159  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2019, 10:47 AM
Joseph Potvin Joseph Potvin is offline
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
He lives in Chelsea. So of course, he's going to build a train to his backyard! It's not like he cares about the business case. A billion here. A billion there. Pretty soon we're talking real money!
@Truenorth00,

Please explain how you reckon that the removal of the railway though Chelsea is related to preventing or reducing urban sprawl...
CBC: Chelsea, Que., plans to add 1,000 new homes

Do you believe it would be even worse if passenger rail were running?

Would the addition of passenger rail on that re-developed line be a worse scenario for the future of Ottawa's King Edward Avenue and its curious intersection with Rideau? Do you think it's wiser to ensure that those 1000 new homes for commuters in Chelsea (plus the current La Pêche home-building spree) should only serviced by roads?

If I understand your idea correctly, the public policy should be to make travelling 25 km between home and work as inconvenient as possible, as a sort of incentive-booster for the Compact City model.

Should that be a declared public policy? If so, I wonder if you might offer an example of any jurisdiction anywhere on the planet you've ever seen such a policy. If not, please suggest some wording for such a policy that you think might work in a system of governance based upon voting.

What proportion of the population of these areas do you think will feel inclined to use the curiously inconvenient TransCollines service to STO service to OC-Transpo service? I expect well less than 1 per cent. Would you go as high as, say, 2%?

Based on prior experience in this forum, I do not anticipate that @Truenorth00 will attempt to answer any of this. Criticism seems his only mode of discourse. So I invite any of the other anti-sprawl motivated critics of regional rail to comment on that CBC story and the questions I've posed.

Happy New Year all.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com

Last edited by Joseph Potvin; Jan 2, 2019 at 11:59 AM.
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  #2160  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2019, 1:41 PM
OtrainUser OtrainUser is offline
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Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin View Post
@Truenorth00,

Please explain how you reckon that the removal of the railway though Chelsea is related to preventing or reducing urban sprawl...
CBC: Chelsea, Que., plans to add 1,000 new homes

Do you believe it would be even worse if passenger rail were running?

Would the addition of passenger rail on that re-developed line be a worse scenario for the future of Ottawa's King Edward Avenue and its curious intersection with Rideau? Do you think it's wiser to ensure that those 1000 new homes for commuters in Chelsea (plus the current La Pêche home-building spree) should only serviced by roads?

If I understand your idea correctly, the public policy should be to make travelling 25 km between home and work as inconvenient as possible, as a sort of incentive-booster for the Compact City model.

Should that be a declared public policy? If so, I wonder if you might offer an example of any jurisdiction anywhere on the planet you've ever seen such a policy. If not, please suggest some wording for such a policy that you think might work in a system of governance based upon voting.

What proportion of the population of these areas do you think will feel inclined to use the curiously inconvenient TransCollines service to STO service to OC-Transpo service? I expect well less than 1 per cent. Would you go as high as, say, 2%?

Based on prior experience in this forum, I do not anticipate that @Truenorth00 will attempt to answer any of this. Criticism seems his only mode of discourse. So I invite any of the other anti-sprawl motivated critics of regional rail to comment on that CBC story and the questions I've posed.

Happy New Year all.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com
How about answering the question I asked just above the one you replied to.
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