VIA Rail network developments

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

The gong show was on flight connections coming into Pearson. Overseas flights departed more or less on time. Based on the warning I had, a VIA train would have got me to Toronto in time for my overseas flight. I remember thinking about it that day as the flight cancellations and delays mounted.

That seems like a pretty particular set of circumstances rather than a generalized problem. 99% of the time flying would be faster, easier and cheaper if you have a connecting overseas flight.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Exactly. All these people acting like CN & CP would just sit there and automatically reject any proposal.. it doesn't work like that. They're publically traded companies, if the price is right, they have to say yes, because their shareholders will make them. If the markets are satisified with $500M for their co-operation, great! If it's $5B, then that's a problem obviously.

Even then, $5 billion might not be that outrageous if it gave them access to build their own, dedicated tracks in the CN or CP corridor, versus what it might cost to build an all new right of away.

The only option for real service and speed upgrades on the Lakeshore corridor is a dedicated set of tracks for passenger rail. There is no way around it. If you look at the investments VIA currently makes for this section, it isn't about making things better, it is about maintaining the status quo as CN freight traffic increases. And why would they do anything else. Why spend money on someone else's infrastructure? We've seen the strategy VIA and GO have taken over the last decade, or more; they are buying lines so they can have their own corridor. CN obviously isn't going to sell their rail line, so VIA will have to get creative.

Some parts of the corridor probably wouldn't too hard to build a dedicated line on. The section from Brockville to Coteau is relatively flat, with what appears to be sizable right of ways. And, just as important, it is largely straight. You could probably build a dedicated passenger rail line, at HSR standards (for future equipment), and probably have relatively easy negotiations with CN. At the end of the day what VIA would be offering is to start getting off their tracks, and that's a good bargaining chip. And at about 150km in length, and with the possibility of VIAs new fleet being able to operate at 200km/h on a grade separated, HSR line, you have just made a little over 1/3 of the non-inner city rail line faster and probably free of delays.

As long as VIAs plan didn't interrupt their operations, CN would likely be relatively easy to negotiate with. For VIA, it is just a matter of being creative and strategic.

Edit: After writing that it did make me wonder how much money will VIA save on "status quo" projects in the Lakeshore corridor as a result of HFR? Right now, all VIA is doing is spending money on CN's infrastructure, so that it make sure its service doesn't degrade anymore. It isn't actually investing anything in modernizing the Lakeshore corridor. It is just a guestimate but it might be that $500 million worth of work could be saved in that corridor (over 10 - 15 years) as a result of HFR picking up the slack. If HFR means that VIA can spend almost nothing in the Lakeshore corridor, until the time that it can start to build its own dedicated line, that actually adds a lot more value to the HFR project.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Do you think they will see it as an improvement?

It depends who you mean when you say "they." Kingston residents, probably not, but almost every other city would most likely see a significant increase in service frequency, so I would say they would.

If they stopped routing mainline trains through Ottawa and implemented a Budd car service (or whatever they’re planning) would you be in favour of it?

Given that the the recently announced Siemens order has an option to increase the order by 50% (16 extra over the 32 ordered) if HFR is approved, I suspect they plan to use modern trains, not obsolete Budd cars (VIA doesn't have enough of those anymore to use them even if they wanted to).

Edit: Rereading your question, I think I understand it better. If the result was a significantly increased frequency of service and have it tailored more towards Ottawa's needs and not get the dregs of service from other, bigger cities, then, yes I would support "a Budd car service" (as you call it, not that it is likely what is being proposed).

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton

Even then, $5 billion might not be that outrageous if it gave them access to build their own, dedicated tracks in the CN or CP corridor, versus what it might cost to build an all new right of away.

The only option for real service and speed upgrades on the Lakeshore corridor is a dedicated set of tracks for passenger rail. There is no way around it. If you look at the investments VIA currently makes for this section, it isn't about making things better, it is about maintaining the status quo as CN freight traffic increases. And why would they do anything else. Why spend money on someone else's infrastructure? We've seen the strategy VIA and GO have taken over the last decade, or more; they are buying lines so they can have their own corridor. CN obviously isn't going to sell their rail line, so VIA will have to get creative.

Some parts of the corridor probably wouldn't too hard to build a dedicated line on. The section from Brockville to Coteau is relatively flat, with what appears to be sizable right of ways. And, just as important, it is largely straight. You could probably build a dedicated passenger rail line, at HSR standards (for future equipment), and probably have relatively easy negotiations with CN. At the end of the day what VIA would be offering is to start getting off their tracks, and that's a good bargaining chip. And at about 150km in length, and with the possibility of VIAs new fleet being able to operate at 200km/h on a grade separated, HSR line, you have just made a little over 1/3 of the non-inner city rail line faster and probably free of delays.

As long as VIAs plan didn't interrupt their operations, CN would likely be relatively easy to negotiate with. For VIA, it is just a matter of being creative and strategic.

Edit: After writing that it did make me wonder how much money will VIA save on "status quo" projects in the Lakeshore corridor as a result of HFR? Right now, all VIA is doing is spending money on CN's infrastructure, so that it make sure its service doesn't degrade anymore. It isn't actually investing anything in modernizing the Lakeshore corridor. It is just a guestimate but it might be that $500 million worth of work could be saved in that corridor (over 10 - 15 years) as a result of HFR picking up the slack. If HFR means that VIA can spend almost nothing in the Lakeshore corridor, until the time that it can start to build its own dedicated line, that actually adds a lot more value to the HFR project.

Just remember there is a price tag to acquire the right to build on the CN corridor, but then we still have to build it. I expect it will be a lot cheaper to acquire an abandoned railway right of way.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Just remember there is a price tag to acquire the right to build on the CN corridor, but then we still have to build it. I expect it will be a lot cheaper to acquire an abandoned railway right of way.

True. But its all about trade-offs. Maybe the CN corridor is a bit more to build in. But it also goes to where the people are, which is a big advantage.

And ultimately, a dedicated passenger rail line wont just use the CN corridor, or just an abandoned right of way, or just an all new alignment, or part of the 401 right of way. It is going to use some mix of all the above. Some sections will be quite expensive, others not so much. There is also the speed at which they can be built, which in the early stages, when you want to demonstrate the value of a dedicated rail line for VIA service by building a test section, could matter a lot.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Just remember there is a price tag to acquire the right to build on the CN corridor, but then we still have to build it. I expect it will be a lot cheaper to acquire an abandoned railway right of way.

The proposed HFR route is only abandoned between Havelock and Perth. Much of the proposed line is owned by CP (including the mainline) or QGR.

[Mikeed]

CN and CP's perspectives can be largely assumed as: pay your own way to get out of our way. I'm sure they'll give access to their right of ways, but aside from that largely CN/CP don't care as long as the government bears the cost.

I don't think people understand how massively capital intensive railworks are:

CN alone is spending $3.2 billion on capital projects this year alone. The Class 1s want to see the rail infrastructure in this country upgraded, but that means the government committed to spending BILLIONS.

> For the third straight year, CN plans to invest approximately C$1.6 billion on track and railway infrastructure maintenance to support safe and efficient operations. The planned work includes the replacement of 2.1 million rail ties and more than 600 miles of rail, plus work on bridges and other general track maintenance.

The Milton intermodal terminal is a $250 million dollars.


The Feds need to come with at least a billion dollars to play with to get anything done.

Ontario has already pulled out of the freight bypass project around Brampton (extremely busy rail infrastructure as Brampton is home to the main GTA intermodal terminal.)



The cost of this 30km bypass was $2.25 billion dollars.

The missing link combined freight by-pass would be a serious improvement to the rail network of Canada- but CP walked away from this and this project would have cost at a minimum $5 billion.

http://urbantoronto.ca/sites/default/fil...s/articles/2017/02/25109/25109-87427.png

Unfortunately, the Ontario government has walked away from the CN freight bypass through the 407 corridor idea. Instead of deciding to spend a couple million to add 2 trains to the line.

I'm just adding context that I think the class 1s don't think they have a partner that will put their money on the table needed to play this game.

Hey- we want you to move your mainline for us, but we don't have the money to play this game. Do it for the country.

[Mikeed]

The solution to these problems is working with both Class 1s to facilitate co-production of existing single track right of ways.

The trans-continental lines of CN/CP from Mactier to Sudbury are aligned to facilitate the very heavy traffic in this bottleneck. CP is northbound/CN is southbound. This is done in the Fraser Valley as well.

The Feds moving to the Peterborough > Ottawa route makes co-production between Belleville and Montreal more likely, which means the GTA by-pass is more likely.

Co-Production between Sudbury - Toronto, Belleville - Montreal would go a long way to modernizing the rail transport network.

The stepping stones to get here - that cost billions - are key. Including VIA rails HFR and the Ontario Freight CN 407 By-Pass (which ideally should include CP and Federal support).

WARNING Very Very Big Map of the railway network in North America.

[Mikeed]

My man CN's got the goods. GIS map of the entire North American railroad network with Google Maps as the base layer.

Here.

Might help illustrate why the Peterborough link to Ottawa helps modernize the entire Ontario/Quebec rail network. And thus the North American network.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton

True. But its all about trade-offs. Maybe the CN corridor is a bit more to build in. But it also goes to where the people are, which is a big advantage.

It is an advantage for regional rail or stopping trains as they are sometimes called, but not for inter city trains, which are still conventional rail (not HSR) but travel at higher speeds with fewer stops. By only having one route, it becomes a jack of all trades and there is no redundancy.

And ultimately, a dedicated passenger rail line wont just use the CN corridor, or just an abandoned right of way, or just an all new alignment, or part of the 401 right of way. It is going to use some mix of all the above. Some sections will be quite expensive, others not so much. There is also the speed at which they can be built, which in the early stages, when you want to demonstrate the value of a dedicated rail line for VIA service by building a test section, could matter a lot.

Eventually I would like to see VIA own two corridors between Toronto and Montreal, but that’s a long ways off.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Oh, you think the SW high speed rail is going to happen. I guess anything is possible, but even the provincial Liberals stopped talking about that.

Whether it happens tomorrow or two decades from now is irrelevant. Roughing in the ability to accomodate is what is relevant. And what I was alluding to is the fact that the GTAA wants that line. They've said in their master plan that they they want to see HSR access to the airport, if HSR happens.

That hub is happening. It's pretty important to their growth to move passengers who arrive by transit to the hub to check-in. I really suggest your read their Master Plan:

https://www.torontopearson.com/uploadedF..._Pearson_Master_Plan_2017_to_2037_EN.pdf

Originally Posted by acottawa

Nobody in Toronto or Montreal cares about Via Rail, they would rather money be spent on commuter services. Whereas in the small cities along the lakeshore it is an important service and MPs will know it.

Several assumptions here. First, given VIA's ridership from Toronto and Montreal, it's quite relevant to those who use VIA. This is like saying the feds don't have to care about airport investment because the majority of residents in Toronto and Montreal only care about local transit. If anything, intercity rail is something that is actually in the feds bailiwick. Next, for all the talk about how important VIA is to Lakeshore towns and cities, they don't actually come close to generating the ridership for VIA that the major metros do. And your other assumption that those towns will lose service is flat out wrong. VIA was very specific about Kingston being a hub for Lakeshore services.

As part of this plan, VIA Rail made a presentation to the Greater Kingston Chamber of Commerce on the dedicated track and future improvements to Kingston’s VIA service and station, also announcing that Kingston will see increased VIA service now and into the future. As one of the top five busiest stations in Canada, Kingston will become a ‘hub’ in Eastern Ontario for new VIA service and frequency into and out of Kingston. For residents this means early and more frequent departures for all destinations and late and more frequent returns from all departure points.

https://www.cityofkingston.ca/apps/councilpriorities/rail.html

Originally Posted by acottawa

So your theory is the Liberals really want to build the Peterborough line but they have been holding back because they want really complicated financing? Again, anything is possible.

That's one among many complications. Yes.

Frankly, I think this is something they want to do. But hardly a priority for them. That's obvious. But I do see them launching it before the election.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Exactly. All these people acting like CN & CP would just sit there and automatically reject any proposal.. it doesn't work like that. They're publically traded companies, if the price is right, they have to say yes, because their shareholders will make them. If the markets are satisified with $500M for their co-operation, great! If it's $5B, then that's a problem obviously.

I agree. But I think people are really underestimating the price. The price is not just access to the corridor but probably a whole lot more that would have to happen to facilitate VIA on that corridor, from expropriation for corridor expansion to traffic levels driving up the need for more grade separation. And all that might just be more expensive than the Shining Waters proposal.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by roger1818

It is an advantage for regional rail or stopping trains as they are sometimes called, but not for inter city trains, which are still conventional rail (not HSR) but travel at higher speeds with fewer stops. By only having one route, it becomes a jack of all trades and there is no redundancy.

I am not saying that existing rail corridors are the end all, be all, for a dedicated line. Geometry of an HSL alone is going to guarantee a new line cannot just parallel their existing one.

But, as others have mentioned before, VIA is just as important to the smaller towns, like Cobourg, Belleville, or Brockville, as it is to Toronto or Montreal. Whatever future, dedicated line, plan VIA puts forward for the Lakeshore corridor, those towns need to keep their service. And the existing CN corridor will be invaluable in helping achieve that. There are hundreds of ways you could design a rail line in the corridor. Its just a matter of being creative and starting to think outside the box. At the end of the day the CN corridor is still the route that provides service to a central part of many of these towns and smaller cities. So when factored into VIAs overall mandate, and the political realities of investing in VIA, those corridors will be a key component (not the only one, but probably more so than the other corridor options that will also be used).

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I agree. But I think people are really underestimating the price. The price is not just access to the corridor but probably a whole lot more that would have to happen to facilitate VIA on that corridor, from expropriation for corridor expansion to traffic levels driving up the need for more grade separation. And all that might just be more expensive than the Shining Waters proposal.

Expropriation and grade separation are going to be needed on any route that VIA ultimately picks. Even if they are a bit more expensive on the CN corridor, that might be worth it, if it ultimately allows the line to conveniently serve a maximum number of people.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton

I am not saying that existing rail corridors are the end all, be all, for a dedicated line. Geometry of an HSL alone is going to guarantee a new line cannot just parallel their existing one.

But, as others have mentioned before, VIA is just as important to the smaller towns, like Cobourg, Belleville, or Brockville, as it is to Toronto or Montreal. Whatever future, dedicated line, plan VIA puts forward for the Lakeshore corridor, those towns need to keep their service. And the existing CN corridor will be invaluable in helping achieve that. There are hundreds of ways you could design a rail line in the corridor. Its just a matter of being creative and starting to think outside the box. At the end of the day the CN corridor is still the route that provides service to a central part of many of these towns and smaller cities. So when factored into VIAs overall mandate, and the political realities of investing in VIA, those corridors will be a key component (not the only one, but probably more so than the other corridor options that will also be used).



Expropriation and grade separation are going to be needed on any route that VIA ultimately picks. Even if they are a bit more expensive on the CN corridor, that might be worth it, if it ultimately allows the line to conveniently serve a maximum number of people.

Those who live in the smaller cities are not as time sensitive as those in the major cities. The smaller cities mostly already have shorter distances to travel. We need to reduce the time for big city customers so it becomes competitive with short haul flights. This is why there has been talk of HSR to London with less concern about Kitchener and Guelph. Shorter distances for the latter and less competition from short haul flights.

The challenge and the potential market is in the big cities where there are millions of potential clients rather than 20,000 or 50,000 in say Cobourg or Belleville. We need to find the maximum time saving with the least cost. Anything involving the Lakeshore route is going to be enormously expensive and complicated because of CN's involvement. I also expect the corridor is confined in many places because of urban and industrial development.

The Peterborough route is as close to a clean slate as we can get without building an entirely new rail line which poses many other problems.

Regarding grade separations, initially this is not an absolute necessity especially in areas in Central Ontario where population is sparse and traffic low. So that provides an advantage for the Peterborough route over the Lakeshore route. To put in an exclusive VIA rail line on the Lakeshore route will require most of the grade separations to be extended or replaced.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton

I am not saying that existing rail corridors are the end all, be all, for a dedicated line. Geometry of an HSL alone is going to guarantee a new line cannot just parallel their existing one.

But, as others have mentioned before, VIA is just as important to the smaller towns, like Cobourg, Belleville, or Brockville, as it is to Toronto or Montreal. Whatever future, dedicated line, plan VIA puts forward for the Lakeshore corridor, those towns need to keep their service. And the existing CN corridor will be invaluable in helping achieve that. There are hundreds of ways you could design a rail line in the corridor. Its just a matter of being creative and starting to think outside the box. At the end of the day the CN corridor is still the route that provides service to a central part of many of these towns and smaller cities. So when factored into VIAs overall mandate, and the political realities of investing in VIA, those corridors will be a key component (not the only one, but probably more so than the other corridor options that will also be used).

No one is suggesting that we should abandon the Lakeshore routes. I would argue that having the trains between Toronto and Ottawa/Montreal run along it does them a dis-service though as the pressure is on to make as few stops as possible in an attampt to balance speed with local service. By having trains dedicated to the lakeshore, they can have more trains stop at the smaller cities that currently frequently get bypassed.

Expropriation and grade separation are going to be needed on any route that VIA ultimately picks. Even if they are a bit more expensive on the CN corridor, that might be worth it, if it ultimately allows the line to conveniently serve a maximum number of people.

Land in cities costs a lot more to expropriate than farm (or in many cases crown) land, not a "bit more" like you are saying.

Also, the CN route likely has an order of magnitude more crossings than the Havelock subidvision. Those that are grade separated will need to be widened if you want to add a third or fourth track. Those that aren't grade separated, may need to be grade separated as crossing 3 or 4 tracks on heavily used corridors would not only be more difficult but more dangerous.

[Truenorth00]

Ugh. People keep acting as though it's one or the other. VIA is not abandoning Lakeshore. They've suggested service expansion and the transformation of Kingston into a hub. Where are the rest of you getting the idea that Lakeshore service would be abandoned for HFR? You know something that VIA doesn't?

https://mayorpaterson.com/2017/07/27/proposed-via-rail-expansion-in-eastern-ontario/

https://globalnews.ca/video/3645692/mayo...ia-rail-and-how-they-may-impact-kingston

Can we stop with the "alternative facts"?

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Ugh. People keep acting as though it's one or the other. VIA is not abandoning Lakeshore. They've suggested service expansion and the transformation of Kingston into a hub. Where are the rest of you getting the idea that Lakeshore service would be abandoned for HFR? You know something that VIA doesn't?

https://mayorpaterson.com/2017/07/27/proposed-via-rail-expansion-in-eastern-ontario/

Here is an interesting map from the above link of how Lakeshore service would work with Kingston as a hub. This is the first time I have seen actual numbers of train frequencies along the lakeshore.



If this is true, the number of trains along the lakeshore would drop from 17 westbound or 15 eastbount to 12 each way. As I have said before, many of the existing trains are less than 30 minutes apart (some less than 15 minutes apart), which add little value. With Kingston as a hub, trains can be better spread out and timed for the lakeshore, not for Ottawa and Montreal. But don't take our word for it, here is what Mayor Paterson (Kingston) has to say about VIA's HFR plan in the above link:

I’m fully supportive of VIA Rail’s proposed expansion of rail service in Eastern Ontario. The core of this plan is a new passenger dedicated rail line, and although this new rail line won’t run through Kingston, the overall effect on our city’s rail service will be significant. With this new rail line Kingston will be transformed into a regional hub for rail service in Eastern Ontario. Kingston is currently a midway stop between Toronto and Montreal, Toronto and Ottawa, and that means limited train schedules. Right now you can’t catch an early morning train from Kingston to Ottawa or a late evening train from Toronto to Kingston.

However, with Kingston as a regional rail hub, trains would start and end here, meaning far more convenient train schedules. For example, if you are in Kingston, you could catch an early morning train to Toronto, Ottawa or Montreal and then catch an evening train back. If you are in Toronto, Ottawa or Montreal, the same options of early morning and late evening trains would be available. Whether coming into Kingston or leaving, travel options by train would be significantly better.

[JohnnyRenton]

@roger1818 and @lrt's friend

I should clarify that I am by no means against HFR. In fact, I think it's a brilliant plan.

I don't see the plan as a Lakeshore replacement. I think about HFR as a collection of projects that turned out be a great opportunity. There are basically three parts to it. The first is service to Peterborough, something that has been talked about for some time. The second is upgrading the existing line from Smiths Falls to Coteau. This may not have been on the public radar, but, given that they own the corridor, and know that double tracking it will allow for big improvements in speed, and reduced delays, this is one section of the network that is an easy win for them. Its hard to imagine VIA didn't have plans in mind to upgrade that stretch.

The third part, the section from Smiths Falls to Peterborough, is what makes the plan great. Without knowing all the details of the plan, and a cost breakdown, it is a bit of a guess as to how much that section will cost. But at 200km, that section will likely cost less than whatever they would need to put into the Lakeshore corridor over the next 10 years to simply maintain current service levels.

Aside from the Peterborough service (which is a bit of a special project), and full electrification (which doesn't need to happen right away, as long as the line is built to easily accommodate it), HFR is basically VIA shifting Lakeshore spending onto a different line, and perhaps bumping up when they would have upgraded the Smiths Falls to Coteau section. Its incredibly clever.

Now, as far as the Lakeshore corridor goes, yes, it is going to be expensive to build a dedicated line on it. And sinking money into CN's infrastructure is a waste. But, with HFR, now VIA can relieve some of the pressure on the line, and make sure that when it does start to modernize that corridor, it is doing it properly from the start. To me, that ability to set up VIA to properly modernize the Lakeshore corridor with what is actually a very minimal investment versus what they would already be spending, is the most brilliant part of the HFR plan.

I am sure we could debate for many dozens of pages about the value of serving smaller towns in addition to providing high speed service on the Lakeshore corridor. Personally, I think both those needs should be, and could be, served simultaneously. And if there is someone, or some group of people, who were clever enough to put together HFR, then surely people can figure out a comprehensive, and inclusive, HSR plan for the Lakeshore corridor.
​

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Here is an interesting map from the above link of how Lakeshore service would work with Kingston as a hub. This is the first time I have seen actual numbers of train frequencies along the lakeshore.



If this is true, the number of trains along the lakeshore would drop from 17 westbound or 15 eastbount to 12 each way. As I have said before, many of the existing trains are less than 30 minutes apart (some less than 15 minutes apart), which add little value. With Kingston as a hub, trains can be better spread out and timed for the lakeshore, not for Ottawa and Montreal.

Yep. This actually adds a ton of value to Kingston. Breaking service at Kingston also reduces the cascading delays you see across the corridor. So delays from Kingston to Toronto, Ottawa or Montreal will actually be more reasonable. And the timings will be appropriate for some exurban commuting.

[Truenorth00]

PS. VIA is going to eat Mr. Potvin's lunch from Smiths Falls with this.