Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[zahav]

Right now owners here in Van are still holding out hope their places will sell for the high prices they are asking, but they won't. And I'm glad. I bought a place at the end of 2014 so I'm speaking as a homeowner, I am content in my place and want the market to come way down. I'm sick of seeing friends leave and struggle, it will make the city so much better to have the air let out of the prices. So many owners are greedy, they would still make money if they bought more than a year ago, so they can afford to reduce prices. The ones that don't obviously don't need the money right away

[ssiguy]

Here`s a truly horrifying stat that should make all Canadians very worried: Americans currently owe US$357 billion in outstanding HELOC loans while Canada with just 1/9th the population has US$225 billion outstanding. At the height of the housing & financial crisis of 2008, Americans has US$1868 per-capita in outstanding HELOC while Canada`s rate today is US$6250...………….3.3X as much HELOC debt as the American peak which helped precipitate the financial crisis.

BC will be the worst hit as people have maintained their standard of living via HELOC and using their home equity as an ATM. What happens now when housing prices are crashing so that equity has vanished and yet at the same time interest rates on those loans are going up?...……...bankruptcy.


This will effect the whole country as people walk away from their homes and give the keys back to the bank who quickly give the keys back to Ottawa thanks to the nation`s largest welfare program, CMHC. Of course CMHC doesn`t have a fraction enough funds to carry the costs so the debts will be transferred over to Ottawa ballooning the national debt and sending interest rates soaring to maintain international confidence in the Loonie. High interest rates in already indebted federal and provincial deficits and personal debt levels now at 180% of GDP could have devastating effects on the economy.

[craneSpotter]

I'll defer to the comments by the experts in this article...but not much relief being seen in BC mid/low-range houses prices, although market has cooled. GOV is claiming the speculation and empty house tax are working as planned - others say it's still too early to tell.

High-end B.C. house prices dropping, but no relief at lower levels

The Canadian Press - NOVEMBER 18, 2018, Victoria Times-Colonist

The BC government says it's already seeing positive results from the policies it put in place to address the housing crisis, but one expert says there's still a long way to go.
Housing Minister Selina Robinson says the government is seeing some high-end house prices starting to drop...

...But Andy Yan, the director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University, says that while very expensive houses are starting to show a decline in price, the numbers haven't translated to mid- and lower-level units..."But the softening of the market and cooling of the market is something that is definitely happening."

[craneSpotter]

Canadians are starting to feel rising interest rates, and in some areas poor job markets... I wonder how these numbers will change over the next 12 months, if at all.

Here are the latest stats I could find for the number of home mortgages in arrears (June 2018):



Source

[whatnext]

A really fascinating look into one of the country's top condo projects of the last decade, and why so many buyers ended up selling at a loss. A real microcosm of how the stench of the slightly shady has permeated Canadian real estate:

Secrets of the Four Seasons
The Four Seasons Private Residences Toronto is one of the most prestigious condo developments in the country. So why have one third of unit sales been for a loss?

...In 2016, the United States Treasury Department started tracking real-estate purchases by shell companies in the hot real-estate markets of Manhattan and Miami. It found that more than a quarter of cash purchases of property by shell companies were flagged as suspicious. The monitoring program has now been expanded to six other areas including San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Antonio.

Earlier this year, British Columbia implemented reporting rules that will require anonymous companies that purchase real estate to identify their real owners to authorities.

After the U.K. House of Commons proposed a ban on real-estate ownership through shell companies in July, there will soon be few places left with as little transparency as Ontario.

“It’s still a bit of a Wild West that’s not policed,” said Realosophy’s Pasalis.
(bold mine)

http://projects.thestar.com/four-seasons-condos/

[lio45]

New project of two new towers (51 and 53 stories) in downtown Montreal. Take a look at the website

https://maestriacondos.com/zh/

[mousquet]

Originally Posted by lio45

Take a look at the website

C'est horrible !

Oh Seigneur, on va devoir apprendre ça... Tu te rends compte ?

Je connais quelqu'un qui l'a fait en faculté. Elle dit que c'est essentiellement de la phonétique.
J'en sais rien, moi ça m'intéresse pas, franchement.
Je trouve que c'est trop brutal.

Il paraît que les Japonais mettent 8 ans à apprendre l'ensemble de leurs caractères qui comprend des trucs chinois.
M'attends, ils sont fous !

Ah non, hein. Il n'y aura pas moyen. Lol.

[lio45]

Heureusement, ce n'est pas encore totalement requis... le site de base est encore intelligible:

https://maestriacondos.com/

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by lio45

New project of two new towers (51 and 53 stories) in downtown Montreal. Take a look at the website

https://maestriacondos.com/zh/

I'm surprised Quebecois, who have usually taken a strong dislike to "not being masters in their own house" don't make a bigger fuss over this. Maybe it's too new and Montrealers are tickled by being in the "big leagues". Trust me, it gets old fast.

[esquire]

Why is it such a big deal if you can view the project sales website in Chinese? It's not like they omitted a French version.

If Quebecers aren't getting up in arms up about this, it's probably because they don't give a —.

Besides, Quebec is all about pointedly including other unofficial languages besides just English:

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by esquire

Why is it such a big deal if you can view the project sales website in Chinese? It's not like they omitted a French version.

If Quebecers aren't getting up in arms up about this, it's probably because they don't give a —.

Its cute that you think that way. Naïve, but cute.

Just don't be shocked when you invite to locusts to the dinner table, and find there is nothing left for you.

[someone123]

Here in Vancouver a couple years ago I could drive to work past 30 Chinese-only for sale signs, go stop to pick up some stuff at the grocery store and see a Chinese condo ad on my grocery cart, and then tune in to the radio and hear the mayor talk about how "foreign buyers" were essentially not a thing here.

We had no meaningful tracking or money laundering controls because they weren't needed because everyone is honest here in BC.

Also nobody can afford a house here because we are hemmed in by mountains or something, so stop asking.

There's nothing wrong with Chinese ads per se as long as people can get by in the country's official languages (or just one of them I guess). But they revealed the corruption of government officials here in BC.

Hopefully Montreal will get a more reasonable flow of investment or manage it in a more productive way. There isn't even necessarily anything wrong with building condos for foreigners. But it's important to make sure people pay taxes and the residents can afford places to live. BC failed in both of those areas.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Its cute that you think that way. Naïve, but cute.

Just don't be shocked when you invite to locusts to the dinner table, and find there is nothing left for you.

Well, what are you proposing? The Chinese are already here. Are developers not supposed to market to them on principle? (By the way, which principle are we talking about?)

[lio45]

Originally Posted by esquire

Keep in mind that the core of Quebec City is an UNESCO World Heritage Site; signs in Quebec aren't anywhere near this multilingual. This area is the exception, not the rule.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I'm surprised Quebecois, who have usually taken a strong dislike to "not being masters in their own house" don't make a bigger fuss over this. Maybe it's too new and Montrealers are tickled by being in the "big leagues". Trust me, it gets old fast.

Exactly, it's new enough that it's not threatening.

A strong dislike to not being masters in our own house means we'll fight back against anyone or any group who seems to be in a position to replace us as masters in our own house. Historically, those were Brits, Americans, and Anglo-Canadians. The Chinese right now aren't even close to being on the radar.

Similarly, I'm sure that for example, in Brussels' Flemish-speaking exurbs, an unilingual Mandarin newcomer would be greeted very differently from an unilingual French-speaking newcomer. The latter is an invader, the former is just cute.

(In Vancouver, of course the situation is the complete opposite, and I've usually been in agreement with you about it; just look at our past exchanges in this very thread.)

[someone123]

The arrested Huawei CFO it turns out owns about $22M worth of Vancouver real estate.

More background:

The documents reveal two of her children attended school in the city between 2009 and 2012 while her husband completed a master’s degree there.

“Even after the children stopped attending school in Vancouver, my husband and younger children spent many weeks, sometimes months, here during the summer,” states Meng’s affidavit.

“Since approximately 2010, my in-laws typically stay at our home in Vancouver for multiple months in the summer … I always try to spend at least 2-3 weeks in Vancouver every summer.”

I don't have an opinion on her arrest or if she likely committed any real crime (or the US just doesn't like Huawei). But it's an interesting example of a wealthy foreign buyer in Vancouver. It exactly what I have posted about in the past, with people owning a lot of real estate here but having only tenuous local connections (permanent residency lapsed, kids went to school here then left, the homes are used 2-3 weeks a year). One of the houses has doubled in value since it was purchased, and both houses are in "NIMBY preserves" that are limited to large, extremely expensive, low density housing.

[ssiguy]

She is wealthy and Chinese...……….having a house or 5 in Vancouver is a given.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by someone123

The arrested Huawei CFO it turns out owns about $22M worth of Vancouver real estate.

More background:

The documents reveal two of her children attended school in the city between 2009 and 2012 while her husband completed a master’s degree there.

“Even after the children stopped attending school in Vancouver, my husband and younger children spent many weeks, sometimes months, here during the summer,” states Meng’s affidavit.

“Since approximately 2010, my in-laws typically stay at our home in Vancouver for multiple months in the summer … I always try to spend at least 2-3 weeks in Vancouver every summer.”

I don't have an opinion on her arrest or if she likely committed any real crime (or the US just doesn't like Huawei). But it's an interesting example of a wealthy foreign buyer in Vancouver. It exactly what I have posted about in the past, with people owning a lot of real estate here but having only tenuous local connections (permanent residency lapsed, kids went to school here then left, the homes are used 2-3 weeks a year). One of the houses has doubled in value since it was purchased, and both houses are in "NIMBY preserves" that are limited to large, extremely expensive, low density housing.

So true.

Immigration status of Meng’s husband Liu flummoxes court

It was a moment in the high-profile bail hearing for the jailed chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies Co. that flummoxed the Canadian court. Is her husband a resident here or not?

Meng Wanzhou is seeking bail as she confronts a U.S. extradition proceeding that could potentially last years. Her success may hinge on whether her defense can convince a judge that her husband Liu Xiaozong -- who flew into Vancouver last week on a multiple-entry visitor visa that expires in two months -- is a resident...

..It’s an odd twist to the saga of Meng, the daughter of Huawei’s billionaire founder Ren Zhengfei, and a peculiarly Vancouver one. In a city that’s a magnet for millionaire migration, wealthy Asians have long wandered between residency and tourism -- buying houses used for only a few weeks of the year, obtaining permanent residency then leaving the country, leaving a child here for schooling.

After lunch Monday, Martin offered ways in which Liu could effectively turn his tourist status into residency. He could stay six months on his current entry stamp, then fly to Hong Kong and come right back: "He gets another six months," Martin said. "This is done by many people."

Liu, a former regional manager for Huawei in Mexico, could perhaps come via a "so-called lateral transfer" used by companies to relocate employees, Martin said. The couple’s 10-year-old daughter could also pave the way if she were accepted into a private school -- "if she comes and goes to school here, he then is entitled to apply for a guardian visa for the period of her education."

The judge appeared skeptical. “Someone here on a visitor’s visa is not a resident of B.C. It’s as simple as that, isn’t it?” Ehrcke asked Martin..
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...res-residency-twists?srnd=premium-canada

What a joke this country's immigration system has become.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by whatnext

So true.

Immigration status of Meng’s husband Liu flummoxes court

It was a moment in the high-profile bail hearing for the jailed chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies Co. that flummoxed the Canadian court. Is her husband a resident here or not?

Meng Wanzhou is seeking bail as she confronts a U.S. extradition proceeding that could potentially last years. Her success may hinge on whether her defense can convince a judge that her husband Liu Xiaozong -- who flew into Vancouver last week on a multiple-entry visitor visa that expires in two months -- is a resident...

..It’s an odd twist to the saga of Meng, the daughter of Huawei’s billionaire founder Ren Zhengfei, and a peculiarly Vancouver one. In a city that’s a magnet for millionaire migration, wealthy Asians have long wandered between residency and tourism -- buying houses used for only a few weeks of the year, obtaining permanent residency then leaving the country, leaving a child here for schooling.

After lunch Monday, Martin offered ways in which Liu could effectively turn his tourist status into residency. He could stay six months on his current entry stamp, then fly to Hong Kong and come right back: "He gets another six months," Martin said. "This is done by many people."

Liu, a former regional manager for Huawei in Mexico, could perhaps come via a "so-called lateral transfer" used by companies to relocate employees, Martin said. The couple’s 10-year-old daughter could also pave the way if she were accepted into a private school -- "if she comes and goes to school here, he then is entitled to apply for a guardian visa for the period of her education."

The judge appeared skeptical. “Someone here on a visitor’s visa is not a resident of B.C. It’s as simple as that, isn’t it?” Ehrcke asked Martin..
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...res-residency-twists?srnd=premium-canada

What a joke this country's immigration system has become.

Not sure why a multiple entry visitor visa would make our (completely unrelated) immigration system a "joke", but, in any event, the judge gets it.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Not sure why a multiple entry visitor visa would make our (completely unrelated) immigration system a "joke", but, in any event, the judge gets it.

Because it's being misused. It is hardly demonstrative that he has "deep ties to the community" to ensure she isn't a flight risk. The whole panoply of immigration fails brought on largely by the Liberals is on display in this case. A woman claiming a meaningful connection to Canada,yet who gave up her permanent residency (no doubt to avoid taxation) but still owns multiple homes (bought not to actually house anyone).

Trudeau and the Liberals are going down the electoral path faced by politicians recently in BC at provincial and municipal levels, they're going to get shellacked for doing nothing on this front.