YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

I guess YVR is not going to pass 26M this year?
My prediction: 7.5% increase by year end, with a total of 25.98M passengers

It's going to be sooooo close.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by Henbo

On its own, I don't think so, just because I believe much of the flight demand between here and China is family and tourism related, not necessarily business (but no idea the proportion of those visitors who are Chinese executives, but I expect this would be relatively low)

Overall, I think it depends if you consider this as part of the rising tensions / trade war between US/China or not. Because that is a factor which analysts say is starting to effect the Chinese economy (possibly evident by the cut back in Chinese flights that was just discussed)

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econo...nomic-growth-slowing-impact-trade-war-us

Just stick a few Americans in jail and do a prisoner trade.

Unless China decides on a macro level to ban travel, it won't mean anything.

[SpongeG]

Relay is replacing what I want to say was a Golf Store and an iStore.

pic by me saturday dec 08

2018-12-08_10-36-09 by snub_you, on Flickr

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by stiffdeadman

surprised volaris hasn't jumped on guadalajara yet.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

That is one route I would agree is in the "highly likely" category.

Based on what?

[zahav]

For those who want to check out Seatac, this is the link. It downloads as an excel file (weird!) rather than a PDF or viewed on the page.

Ya Seatac's stats are not great at all when you hear about their massive domestic and international expansions (+3.6% growth vs. YVR +7.9%).

For YTD with Canadian airports to October (of course without YYZ because it takes them 10 years to post):

Highest domestic growth: YYC +7.3%
Highest Transborder: YUL +8.1%
Highest International (non-transborder): YVR +12.3%
Highest International (total): YVR +9.3%
Highest Overall: YVR 7.9%

But in all categories, each of these 3 had fairly decent growth (all well above 5%-6%). The only exception is +3.6% domestic growth at YUL, which was the smallest of all airports all components. International is definitely king there, moreso now than before

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by zahav

For those who want to check out Seatac, this is the link. It downloads as an excel file (weird!) rather than a PDF or viewed on the page.

Ya Seatac's stats are not great at all when you hear about their massive domestic and international expansions (+3.6% growth vs. YVR +7.9%).

For YTD with Canadian airports to October (of course without YYZ because it takes them 10 years to post):

Highest domestic growth: YYC +7.3%
Highest Transborder: YUL +8.1%
Highest International (non-transborder): YVR +12.3%
Highest International (total): YVR +9.3%
Highest Overall: YVR 7.9%

But in all categories, each of these 3 had fairly decent growth (all well above 5%-6%). The only exception is +3.6% domestic growth at YUL, which was the smallest of all airports all components. International is definitely king there, moreso now than before

You didn’t post the link for SEA.

Yeah I was looking at their intl stats YTD as well.

YTD SEA up 6.7% but only up 292K for a YTD total of 4.6 million
YVR YTD up 9.3% and up 976K for a total of 11.5 million

SEA’s YTD Asia is actually down 3.2%

Obviously next year SEA will have a better year but YVR has widened the intl gap with SEA by almost 700,000 this year.... certainly not catching up like some posters think. Just go look at the facts before posting rubbish.

By year end the international gap between SEA and YVR will be over 7 million. Taking out transborder from both, the variance will still be well over 3 million. Think about how many additional flights they would have to add to even come close to YVR’s international numbers. Not happening anytime soon despite the addition of maybe 3-4 daily international flights next year.

[thenoflyzone]

You know what I meant. Stop acting dumb. The catch-up will happen in the next few years, once SQ, JL, CX start service, and DL expands intl as well.

Speaking of rubbish, you still haven't answered my question? GDL highly likely based on what? hopes and dreams ?

[casper]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

You know what I meant. Stop acting dumb. The catch-up will happen in the next few years, once SQ, JL, CX start service, and DL expands intl as well.

Speaking of rubbish, you still haven't answered my question? GDL highly likely based on what? hopes and dreams ?

Well Seattle airport is a disaster from a security perspective. During the summer very long lines for security. Much of it driven by the cruise ship trade. International arrivals is also an even bigger pain. During peek periods it operating at far above capacity.

They have some work to do and they are working on it.

[thenoflyzone]

I guess we should be thanking YVR for sending us those Rouge frames...

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air...nada-rouge-boosts-athens-service-in-s19/

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by nname

I guess YVR is not going to pass 26M this year?
My prediction: 7.5% increase by year end, with a total of 25.98M passengers

Oh wow. YVR numbers truly put YUL to shame.

[osirisboy]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I guess we should be thanking YVR for sending us those Rouge frames...

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air...nada-rouge-boosts-athens-service-in-s19/

is that link really yvr related?

[Denscity]

Ya less Rouge more mainline for YVR!

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I guess we should be thanking YVR for sending us those Rouge frames...

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air...nada-rouge-boosts-athens-service-in-s19/

And I thought I already posted in the Canadian thread... these increase comes from the cut to LIS.... YYZ-LIS down to 4x weekly and YUL-LIS down to 1x weekly - both a 2x weekly cut.

The 3 frame from YVR goes to:
7x weekly increase in YYZ Rouge route
7x weekly conversion of WAW to Rouge
1 frame to increase Rouge reliability

[Johnny Aussie]

That's the beauty of these forums though. You can choose to ignore certain posters if you want. I wouldn't be surprised if some have chosen to ignore me and that's their prerogative.

Luckily there are plenty of posters who add great value to this thread though. Luckily there are very few who don't.

[Alexcaban]

Originally Posted by nname

And I thought I already posted in the Canadian thread... these increase comes from the cut to LIS.... YYZ-LIS down to 4x weekly and YUL-LIS down to 1x weekly - both a 2x weekly cut.

The 3 frame from YVR goes to:
7x weekly increase in YYZ Rouge route
7x weekly conversion of WAW to Rouge
1 frame to increase Rouge reliability

I'm not sure where you are seeing these LIS cuts?

YUL-LIS still loads at 3 weekly (357), the only thing that seemed to change is the times.

YYZ-LIS is where it seems to be cut from daily to 5 weekly

[nname]

Originally Posted by Alexcaban

I'm not sure where you are seeing these LIS cuts?

YUL-LIS still loads at 3 weekly (357), the only thing that seemed to change is the times.

YYZ-LIS is where it seems to be cut from daily to 5 weekly

Timetable. I only trust AC timetable as it's pretty much always the first to update.

AC 1916 YYZ-LIS 1236
AC 1960 YUL-LIS 3

And I cross-checked this result with June and August, and it gives the same result.

[casper]

Originally Posted by nname

Timetable. I only trust AC timetable as it's pretty much always the first to update.

AC 1916 YYZ-LIS 1236
AC 1960 YUL-LIS 3

And I cross-checked this result with June and August, and it gives the same result.

Given it is YVR thread, any word on a YVR-LIS flight? My preference would be if it were announced to be on TP instead of AC. We don't want thouse Rouge aircraft making their way to YVR.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by casper

Given it is YVR thread, any word on a YVR-LIS flight? My preference would be if it were announced to be on TP instead of AC. We don't want thouse Rouge aircraft making their way to YVR.

I’d say very unlikely TBH. Don’t think the YVR-LIS market is that large at all. And neither end would have many beneficial connections that aren’t already established through other gateways.
Probably not much else on the Europe front that would be viable from YVR.

But yes.... YVR is almost a rouge free zone now.

I just did a quick calc for those still thinking SEA is gonna catch up to YVR’s international numbers anytime soon.....

SEA would need to add 35 daily flights on 280 seat aircraft (the largest of any announced new route - CX on A350s... the other 3 announced routes - not all daily either.. on much smaller capacity aircraft) to even match YVR’s international numbers (YES that includes transborder for both cities but that’s the definition of international folks).

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by nname

COPA cannot add more frequency to Canada. The bilateral with Panama is maxed out.

Well that seems outrageously low.
Copa:
4xYYZ
4xYUL

AC
3xYYZ

8 flights per week by copa maxes out the bulateral? 11 in total between all of Panama and Canada. That's ridiculous.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Airlineroute from Twitter:

“WOW air extended schedule listing into winter 2019/20 season, on/after 27OCT19. Vancouver service will continue in winter season, 5 weekly A321”

That's a great sign. Still concerned for Wow's future, private equity backing or not, but at least if they do survive it looks like YVR is a market they want to really fight for

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I just did a quick calc for those still thinking SEA is gonna catch up to YVR’s international numbers anytime soon.....

SEA would need to add 35 daily flights on 280 seat aircraft (the largest of any announced new route - CX on A350s... the other 3 announced routes - not all daily either.. on much smaller capacity aircraft) to even match YVR’s international numbers (YES that includes transborder for both cities but that’s the definition of international folks).

Ya and that all assumes that YVR doesn't grow at all, which despite the low capacity increase on the books for next summer, winter still has a decent boost, as does transborder.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well that seems outrageously low.
Copa:
4xYYZ
4xYUL

AC
3xYYZ

8 flights per week by copa maxes out the bulateral? 11 in total between all of Panama and Canada. That's ridiculous.

5x YYZ-PTY
4x YUL-PTY

9x weekly for each side.

AC still have 6x weekly unused.