LeBreton Flats 2.0 (RendezVous LeBreton) | Cancelled

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

Fixed. Everything stricken is just apologist noise.

* https://ipolitics.ca/2018/10/15/lobb...nvestor-pilot/

I know some people believe in the Out of Town Billionaire Fairy who will waive his magic billionaire wand and fix all of Ottawa’s problems. This sort of magical thinking precludes

The economics of this project are terrible. The billionaire fairy has to drop somewhere in the neighbourhood of a billion dollars for the right to buy or lease maybe 100M of land at market rates with no other public or private tenants and a slow market. Landsdowne never would have been built iunder these conditions, nor would arenas in Quebec, Winnipeg, or Edmonton.

[YOWflier]

Apparently "some people" includes Melnyk himself, given that link I posted.

The only Ottawa problem needing fixing is Melnyk.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

What is disturbing is the relative lack of interest in office development in the downtown area. Most new development in the downtown area is residential. Has it become too expensive to open offices downtown?

Has there been a corresponding uptick in suburban office developement? Or does the market just not need the new space?

[J.OT13]

Let’s look at this one aspect at a time. The most important thing to remember here is that Melnyk is not alone in this. Yes, he can be difficult to work with, I’m sure, but his only role in the project essentially is the NHL arena and the Sensplexe. For the arena, if they go with the inverted bowl, it will be smaller and cheaper than what had been budgeted in 2015. It will also be cheaper to heat/cool and maintain. The Senspexe will be split between Melnyk and the Abilities Centre (AC). AC will require public funds; province under Ford won’t invest a thing, but the Feds might and so would the City (with the Sensplexe is built, the City can demolish Tom Brown and sell the land). Note that the abilities centre in Whitby cost $40 million, split between the Feds ($18 million), the province ($3 million), the City ($1 million) and private donations.

In terms of tenants, RVL is guaranteed a 5 star hotel from the very start. They need a place to house the players, coaches, staff of the away team, along with the staff and artist preforming at the Palladium 2.0.

Residential rentals, we are now catching up to years of little to no construction. Yes, we are seeing thousands of units u/c today, but the trend will continue for a few more years. RVL can probably build 2 or 3 towers before we hit a wall.

The condo market was oversaturated for years, but we are now seeing the start of a renaissance. We have seen lot of proposals in recent years, but they won’t be built all at once. LeBreton also has an advantage in its location, between two rapid transit stations, the arena and greenspace.

Also remember that 25% of the units will be affordable, which will be snatched up fast. Only 75% needs to be filled up at market value.

Finally, office space. Downtown Ottawa has one of the lowest vacancy rates in Canada and we are way overdue for a new tower. With the Feds sitting on millions of square feet in desperate need of renovation, they will likely need swing space in the coming years. The high-tech sector could also request a new building. As I’ve said, I could see Shopify commission a new headquarters within the next 5-10 years considering how fast they took up the space in Performance Court and 234 Laurier.

[daud]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

Apparently "some people" includes Melnyk himself, given that link I posted.

The only Ottawa problem needing fixing is Melnyk.

agreed. While the deal is complex, I personally feel the obstacles would be minimal with other ownership. market conditions are actually somewhat favourable right now. Ironically the largest competing project to RVL is being proposed by Melnyks partner, trinity. So, if he wants to pull that card, he can hand it to his partner.

We'll see what happens in the coming weeks or months.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

What is disturbing is the relative lack of interest in office development in the downtown area. Most new development in the downtown area is residential. Has it become too expensive to open offices downtown?

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Has there been a corresponding uptick in suburban office developement? Or does the market just not need the new space?

It's this one.

Because of the Workplace 2.0 directives and other such measures along with the DND relocation, the federal government doesn't need as much office space as it used to so there's a surplus of office space in the core.

There is a significant uptick in private sector activity downtown (especially tech).. Shopify and Klipfolio are adding to their footprints and Telesat is moving downtown as well. But they are not creating demand for new development because there's plenty of surplus office space for them to snatch up.

Right now, private sector downtown employment is probably growing faster than private sector suburban employment, although the ongoing relocation of public sector DND employees to Moodie may very well be cancelling this out.

If Klipfolio keeps up its growth, the timing might be right for them to become an anchor tenant in one of the new towers at Lebreton; at their current trajectory, they will outgrow their new digs in the WEP in about 4-5 years.

[J.OT13]

And now the Feds have launched office 3.0, where employees don't have their own desk. They come in every morning and pick where they want to sit. Desks are about the same size as college classrooms. Employees won't have their own space, own cubby for personal belongings, won't have their privacy. I predict a massive uptick in stress leave and the Feds will have to go back to 2.0 at some point.

[p_xavier]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

And now the Feds have launched office 3.0, where employees don't have their own desk. They come in every morning and pick where they want to sit. Desks are about the same size as college classrooms. Employees won't have their own space, own cubby for personal belongings, won't have their privacy. I predict a massive uptick in stress leave and the Feds will have to go back to 2.0 at some point.

Feds are always 20 years late to things. Newer offices are modern cubicles as open spaces were the worse for employee morale. My current employer went back to cubicles in 6 months after 10% of the workforce left for this particular reason in that period, usual turnover rate was less than 1% per year. People were actually yelling at the management.

[lrt's friend]

I remember looking into a call centre office and seeing the lack of privacy. It looked like office hell. Our office went from an open concept (adjoining desks) to separate offices and cubicles. I think people are much happier especially in a situation when people need to concentrate and they are on the phone a lot.

[Radster]

Originally Posted by d_jeffrey

Feds are always 20 years late to things. Newer offices are modern cubicles as open spaces were the worse for employee morale. My current employer went back to cubicles in 6 months after 10% of the workforce left for this particular reason in that period, usual turnover rate was less than 1% per year. People were actually yelling at the management.

Exactly, my partner has been working in office 3.0 for the past few months, and morale is worse than before, people are not happy, and productivity aint any better than in traditional cubicles. Employees are realizing this was a cost cutting measure disguised as something that will boost morale and productivity.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Let’s look at this one aspect at a time. The most important thing to remember here is that Melnyk is not alone in this. Yes, he can be difficult to work with, I’m sure, but his only role in the project essentially is the NHL arena and the Sensplexe. For the arena, if they go with the inverted bowl, it will be smaller and cheaper than what had been budgeted in 2015. It will also be cheaper to heat/cool and maintain. The Senspexe will be split between Melnyk and the Abilities Centre (AC). AC will require public funds; province under Ford won’t invest a thing, but the Feds might and so would the City (with the Sensplexe is built, the City can demolish Tom Brown and sell the land). Note that the abilities centre in Whitby cost $40 million, split between the Feds ($18 million), the province ($3 million), the City ($1 million) and private donations.

In terms of tenants, RVL is guaranteed a 5 star hotel from the very start. They need a place to house the players, coaches, staff of the away team, along with the staff and artist preforming at the Palladium 2.0.

Residential rentals, we are now catching up to years of little to no construction. Yes, we are seeing thousands of units u/c today, but the trend will continue for a few more years. RVL can probably build 2 or 3 towers before we hit a wall.

The condo market was oversaturated for years, but we are now seeing the start of a renaissance. We have seen lot of proposals in recent years, but they won’t be built all at once. LeBreton also has an advantage in its location, between two rapid transit stations, the arena and greenspace.

Also remember that 25% of the units will be affordable, which will be snatched up fast. Only 75% needs to be filled up at market value.

Finally, office space. Downtown Ottawa has one of the lowest vacancy rates in Canada and we are way overdue for a new tower. With the Feds sitting on millions of square feet in desperate need of renovation, they will likely need swing space in the coming years. The high-tech sector could also request a new building. As I’ve said, I could see Shopify commission a new headquarters within the next 5-10 years considering how fast they took up the space in Performance Court and 234 Laurier.

Not sure an arena-adjacent hotel is a requirement for visiting teams. Visiting baseball teams don’t stay at the skydome hotel, for example. If the development eventually got off the ground there would probably be a hotel eventually, but this city doesn’t attract a lot of five star hotels.

Other than that there isn’t much revenue on your list in the shorter to medium terms, particularly if many of the units have to be sold or rented below market value.

[J.OT13]

There are plenty of hotel options around the Skydome. At the moment, we have nothing around LeBreton Flats. A five star hotel might be stretching it, but a 4 star such as the J.W. Marriott built as part of Edmonton's Ice District could be realistic. Easier to have the team, or artists, walk through a tunnel to their hotel next door after a show than bus them across downtown to the Westin.

With the entire RVL project, we have to remember that the NHL itself also has skin in the game. They know Ottawa has potential to be a power franchise. They've seen a solid decade of high attendance, despite a terrible location. They know a downtown arena would raise the franchise to the next level. They want this project to succeed as much as anyone else. They might not invest any money into the project, but they could use their influence to help it along with possible sponsorships or by finding a new owner willing to make it work. If the NHL works so hard to maintain franchises in Raleigh, Miami and Phoenix, they will do the same for a City that has had much greater success in the past.

Oh and, FYI everyone, NCC Board Meeting is Thursday, November 22. They sent a correction earlier today.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Not sure an arena-adjacent hotel is a requirement for visiting teams. Visiting baseball teams don’t stay at the skydome hotel, for example. If the development eventually got off the ground there would probably be a hotel eventually, but this city doesn’t attract a lot of five star hotels.

An even better example is until the Brookstreet Hotel was built in 2003, visiting teams had to stay at either the Chateau or the Westin. The new arena will be much closer to those hotels than the Palladium is. Heck, they are about a third the distance from the new arena than the Brookstreet is from the Palladium.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by roger1818

An even better example is until the Brookstreet Hotel was built in 2003, visiting teams had to stay at either the Chateau or the Westin. The new arena will be much closer to those hotels than the Palladium is. Heck, they are about a third the distance from the new arena than the Brookstreet is from the Palladium.

Teams occasionally still stay at the Westin or other hotels in the Downtown area.

AFAIK it's not an NHL requirement to have a hotel directly adjacent to the arena. It would be nice but by no means required.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by d_jeffrey

Feds are always 20 years late to things. Newer offices are modern cubicles as open spaces were the worse for employee morale. My current employer went back to cubicles in 6 months after 10% of the workforce left for this particular reason in that period, usual turnover rate was less than 1% per year. People were actually yelling at the management.

My office does this sort of hybrid setup, where each work unit (about 5-10 people) share a "pod" that is basically a half-walled large cubicle. Each pod is arranged as a rectangle with the desks around the edge and in the middle is a circular table with a writeable surface (like a horizontal whiteboard) for impromptu team meetings. The pod walls go about halfway to the ceilings and are noise-attenuated; this actually works quite well, surprisingly.

[J.OT13]

I'm sure the NHL has no such rule, but I'm positive RVL is out there searching for a tenant for the "Signature Hotel" next to the arena. It will be much easier to convince a hotel chain to establish themselves next to a downtown arena between two rapid transit systems than a massive parking lot in the suburbs. What I'm saying is, the hotel portion will probably be the easiest to secure.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I'm sure the NHL has no such rule, but I'm positive RVL is out there searching for a tenant for the "Signature Hotel" next to the arena. It will be much easier to convince a hotel chain to establish themselves next to a downtown arena between two rapid transit systems than a massive parking lot in the suburbs. What I'm saying is, the hotel portion will probably be the easiest to secure.

I am sure it would be. Visiting teams (or players being brought up from the minors) may not necessarily use it, but it would be popular with those attending an event or even with tourists in general. I was just saying that it isn't a mandatory component.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

There are plenty of hotel options around the Skydome. At the moment, we have nothing around LeBreton Flats. A five star hotel might be stretching it, but a 4 star such as the J.W. Marriott built as part of Edmonton's Ice District could be realistic. Easier to have the team, or artists, walk through a tunnel to their hotel next door after a show than bus them across downtown to the Westin.

.

But Ice District has everything Lebreton doesn’t: public funding, a large private sector company that was willing to move its HQ to the district, a municipal government that was willing to move offices to the district and a large casino project. These are the reasons they were able to attract a hotel.

[J.OT13]

The NCC was considering moving to a new headquarters a few years back. Who knows, maybe they will be moving to LeBreton Flats.

Not quite the same impact as Stantec or the municipal offices in the Ice District, but it would be a start.

[Kitchissippi]

The CBC should move to LeBreton and free up that Sparks Street location for something more exciting that takes advantage of the LRT station.