Amazon HQ2 thread

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by PremierAtlanta

So you think the jobs split will be 40k for LIC (NYC) and 10k for National Landing (Arlington/Alexandria). Those weren't the numbers released by Gov. Northam at today's 1:30 Amazon announcement.

Could be a switcheroo. They made mention of contractual minimums, but time will tell.

My inclination is that a larger % of the jobs out of the total quantity projected, will long-term be in LIC/nearby proxy neighborhoods to LIC. Might not be 40-10 precisely, but possibly on a ratio basis.

But I don't think economically, 50k jobs are set in stone. For all we know, the economy could collapse in 2 years, and things would look different. But on a ratio basis, I think LIC will get more jobs.

A lot can happen in a year! Sometimes good, sometimes a travesty.

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Good for NYC and DC. Just don't see the need for overly boasting here. That's just me .

Northern Virginia is not Washington, DC. Washington, DC did not get HQ2. Virginia did. Washington, DC's bid was rejected. Crystal City now dubbed by Amazon "National Landing" is in Virginia. These two areas should not be confused. Anyone living in Washington, DC should not be boasting. I do not see anyone from Northern Virginia, Arlington, County, Crystal City bragging.

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Im sorry but not getting HQ2 for a city like LA, which is already expensive and desirable, imo, amounts to dodging a bullet.

I dont see how poor Arlington can avoid becoming the next SF with $5000 1bd rentals.

Crystal City in Arlington VA has 2 things going for it. Massive open available office space. Room to build thousands of units of apartments 3 blocks across the boarder of Alexandria, Potomac Yards. This was the site offered in a joint bid between Alexandria and Arlington due to there being so much undeveloped land which won't last long now that HQ2 is opening just down the road.

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by toddguy

He should be legally REQUIRED to change it! Amazon should demand it!

Otherwise he has to admit that NYC will not really be a headquarters and that DC/Crystal City will be the dominant one! lol

Northern Virginia was going to be the sole site of HQ2 initially, and for many reasons. AWS was already expanding by 1,500 jobs in Northern Virginia before HQ2 was announced. NYC was thrown in as protests in Washington, DC primarily made Amazon get cold feet. Northern VA offered much fewer incentives than NYC because it really did not need to offer Amazon anything at all. It was an open secret in the region that NVA was the preferred location for Amazon. I believe most of the jobs will be created in NVA as opposed to NYC, but since NYC will give Amazon 3 times more money for each job, that could change.

[mrnyc]

the post got it right for lic — 5k of’em are going in 1M sq ft of the citicorp tower:

https://nypost.com/2018/11/13/amazon-set-to-take-over-queens-tallest-building/

[JMKeynes]

Originally Posted by toddguy

He should be legally REQUIRED to change it! Amazon should demand it!

Otherwise he has to admit that NYC will not really be a headquarters and that DC/Crystal City will be the dominant one! lol

I guarantee that the bulk of the jobs will go to NYC. NYC is the capital of the world. No one will want to go to CC, which sucks, instead of NY.

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Could be a switcheroo. They made mention of contractual minimums, but time will tell.

My inclination is that a larger % of the jobs out of the total quantity projected, will long-term be in LIC/nearby proxy neighborhoods to LIC. Might not be 40-10 precisely, but possibly on a ratio basis.

But I don't think economically, 50k jobs are set in stone. For all we know, the economy could collapse in 2 years, and things would look different. But on a ratio basis, I think LIC will get more jobs.

A lot can happen in a year! Sometimes good, sometimes a travesty.

Northern Virginia will get at least 50% of the jobs if not more. Your talk seems like more NYC hubris. Amazon's primary choice was in NVA, not NYC. NYC was an afterthought only. NVA is more educated per capita, younger per capita, and has a higher % of STEM workers per capita. NYC was also losing thousands of residents per year, but NVA was gaining thousands per year. The economy could collapse, but the capital region is more resistant to its affects. The other side, home prices are slightly lower in NVA by median.

[toddguy]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

the post got it right for lic — 5k of’em are going in 1M sq ft of the citicorp tower:

https://nypost.com/2018/11/13/amazon-set-to-take-over-queens-tallest-building/

Well I wondered upthread if it would be 5,000 or if they would manage to cram 7,000 into it. Got my answer.

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

I guarantee that the bulk of the jobs will go to NYC. NYC is the capital of the world. No one will want to go to CC, which sucks, instead of NY.

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Northern Virginia will get at least 50% of the jobs if not more. Your talk seems like more NYC hubris. Amazon's primary choice was in NVA, not NYC. NYC was an afterthought only. NVA is more educated per capita, younger per capita, and has a higher % of STEM workers per capita. NYC was also losing thousands of residents per year, but NVA was gaining thousands per year. The economy could collapse, but the capital region is more resistant to its affects. The other side, home prices are slightly lower in NVA by median.

OK ...so who is right here?

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Northern Virginia is not Washington, DC. Washington, DC did not get HQ2. Virginia did. Washington, DC's bid was rejected. Crystal City now dubbed by Amazon "National Landing" is in Virginia. These two areas should not be confused. Anyone living in Washington, DC should not be boasting. I do not see anyone from Northern Virginia, Arlington, County, Crystal City bragging.

I'm from Reston. Been to Crystal City dozens of times.

[PremierAtlanta]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

I guarantee that the bulk of the jobs will go to NYC. NYC is the capital of the world. No one will want to go to CC, which sucks, instead of NY.

I'm curious. When was the last time you were in Crystal City?

[YSL]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Northern Virginia will get at least 50% of the jobs if not more. Your talk seems like more NYC hubris. Amazon's primary choice was in NVA, not NYC. NYC was an afterthought only. NVA is more educated per capita, younger per capita, and has a higher % of STEM workers per capita. NYC was also losing thousands of residents per year, but NVA was gaining thousands per year. The economy could collapse, but the capital region is more resistant to its affects. The other side, home prices are slightly lower in NVA by median.

And you know this..how? Are you an Amazon executive?

You don't know any of this. None of us know which city was #1 or which was #2. NYC could have been #1 all along. The only reason DMV was always talked about is was on the east coast, wapo and because 'Jeff Bezos has a house there!". Yea, 'celebrities' owning homes in DC is not usual so it's the talk of the town, but Bezos has had a penthouse in NYC since 1999 and has been buying out his neighboring apartments decades later to create what must be a sprawling mansion sized apartment. From what I'm reading read, NYC home was one of his first splurges after he got rich. He clearly loves the place. Not many people know that because people there don't really care and it is to be expected that someone like him has a residence in NYC. NYC could have been #1 all along with Nova as #2. Or Nova could have been #1 and NYC was last minute. Or they were both planned from the beginning.

WE. DON'T. KNOW.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Northern Virginia will get at least 50% of the jobs if not more. Your talk seems like more NYC hubris. Amazon's primary choice was in NVA, not NYC. NYC was an afterthought only. NVA is more educated per capita, younger per capita, and has a higher % of STEM workers per capita. NYC was also losing thousands of residents per year, but NVA was gaining thousands per year. The economy could collapse, but the capital region is more resistant to its affects. The other side, home prices are slightly lower in NVA by median.

I'm basing it on the projections. 25-40k jobs. Just speculation on my part, not hubris. IDK either, again, just speculation.

Also, the development of 4-8 mil-sq ft as a projected range which may fluctuate. When you look at the parcels assembled along the waterfront, the idea that they brought Sunnyside up in the press conference, sure is a lot of prospective talk going on.

In the press conference, Amazon's VP even said that the locations were a factor of the employees preferences to live.

With the potential sites in LIC and the surroundings available or slated to be developed, the towers currently rising to meet any sort of future demand for living, I think the conditions favor LIC for it to be larger VERSUS CC which would be very high in leasing. Unless they buy out certain buildings.

I doubt Amazon would want to long term lease space, but own their own property. Become a large landlord per say. Similar to their Seattle HQ. The lease at 1 Court Square would be temporary as they would want to own, to add to their fixed assets. From a net worth perspective, your losing money if you lease. Long term, property ownership is paramount.

[whatnext]

What a disappointing decision. Two areas that really don't need it, and corporate welfare on a massive scale.

[JMKeynes]

Originally Posted by PremierAtlanta

I'm curious. When was the last time you were in Crystal City?

June.

[JMKeynes]

I can sum up this thread with two succinct points:

1. NYC is the capital of the world; and

2. As usual, everyone from insignificant cities (which excludes LA, SF, DC, Boston, Philly, etc.) is suffering from an acute case of sour grapes.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

I can sum up this thread with two succinct points:

1. NYC is the capital of the world; and

2. As usual, everyone from insignificant cities (which excludes LA, SF, DC, Boston, Philly, etc.) is suffering from sour grapes.

Are you trolling or what?

Plus NYC doesn't even have the highest GDP of any city in the world. You just sound like you're trying to compensate for something..

[skyscraper]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

NYC: Capital of the world!!

STFU up with this. New York is not the capital of the world. You repeated it like 3 times in other posts, troll, what is your obsession with this?

[The North One]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

I can sum up this thread with two succinct points:

1. NYC is the capital of the world; and

2. As usual, everyone from insignificant cities (which excludes LA, SF, DC, Boston, Philly, etc.) is suffering from an acute case of sour grapes.

Wait a second... You're that JR Ewing user, aren't you? lol

[skyscraper]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

3. Amazon wants his mini-HQs near where he already own homes.

right, because he couldn't buy a home absolutely anywhere on earth, given his limited means.

[afiggatt]

Originally Posted by PremierAtlanta

So you think the jobs split will be 40k for LIC (NYC) and 10k for National Landing (Arlington/Alexandria). Those weren't the numbers released by Gov. Northam at today's 1:30 Amazon announcement.

Yea, the potential job numbers for Crystal City and Northern Virginia & LIC show that Amazon appears to project more than 50K total between the 2 locations in 15-20 years. But any job # forecast that far out is based on Amazon continuing on its current growth path and who the heck knows how successful Amazon will be in 15 years?

Excerpt from one of the Washington Post articles on the CC agreement: "According to a 25-page agreement between the company and the state, Amazon expects to hire 400 people in 2019 and 1,180 the following year. It expects to create a minimum of 25,000 jobs by 2030 and potentially a total of 37,850 by 2034."

The part of the agreement that are good news for VA, Arlington, Alexandria improvements to the Metro and walkability in CC is this in another Post article:

Virginia, Arlington and Alexandria announced more than half a billion dollars’ worth of transportation investments to support Amazon’s plans — such as an additional entrance to the Crystal City Metro station and a second entrance for the planned Potomac Yard station.

The plans also include a pedestrian bridge from Reagan National Airport to Crystal City and a transit-way expansion in a corridor with the region’s only bus rapid transit system, along with improvements to Route 1.
Arlington and Alexandria pledged $570 million in investments, while Virginia said it would invest $195 million in improvements; the funding would go to new projects and the expansion of existing ones. The plan would tie new transportation funding levels from the state to the number of jobs Amazon creates.

Details are light at this point, but at least the state and local governments are on board with actual transit improvements. Although they have an out if Amazon doesn't add jobs as quickly as expected.

Post Article: Amazon could be boon or bust for Metro and the region’s transportation infrastructure