Amazon HQ2 thread

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by jd3189

LIC is still a good location though. NYC’s center of significant economic activity is starting to really expand beyond Midtown and Lower Manhattan.

More rezoning needs to occur. I agree, and its what has been occurring. Fortunately, a lot of development can be found outside of Manhattan, and as the months progress, more is added to the pipeline or even u/c.

I think the Bronx is the next hot spot. Not just for resi, but for commercial development. Queens being the current hot spot, but keep an eye out for the Bronx.

Its already seeing 1000's of units being added or planned, and will only accelerate.

I think Staten Island is really limited with its transit options. Sure there is the fairy and SI Railway, but if it were to boom, it would require greater ferry capacity and frequency (more boats). I say this because any sort of subway connection would cost billions, take ages, and probally won't happen anytime soon.

But additional ferry routes or a large fleet, possibly.

[emathias]

Originally Posted by chris08876

More rezoning needs to occur. I agree, and its what has been occurring. Fortunately, a lot of development can be found outside of Manhattan, and as the months progress, more is added to the pipeline or even u/c.

I think the Bronx is the next hot spot. Not just for resi, but for commercial development. Queens being the current hot spot, but keep an eye out for the Bronx.

Its already seeing 1000's of units being added or planned, and will only accelerate.

I think Staten Island is really limited with its transit options. Sure there is the fairy and SI Railway, but if it were to boom, it would require greater ferry capacity and frequency (more boats). I say this because any sort of subway connection would cost billions, take ages, and probally won't happen anytime soon.
...

If money were no object, a subway from Fort Lee to Cliffside Park, headed east under 125th to Laguardia and on to Flushing would enable the north end of Manhattan and the edge of Queens to attract additional commercial business.

[ocman]

Dear Amazon, New York doesn't want you. Go find another city to destroy

Arrogant asshat (former Gawker writer of course) thinks he’s the voice of NY.

[fleonzo]

Originally Posted by ocman

Dear Amazon, New York doesn't want you. Go find another city to destroy

Arrogant asshat (former Gawker writer of course) thinks he’s the voice of NY.

That author is an idiot. I almost stopped reading when it said "and we survived....Guilianni..." What a complete dope! I've been in NYC for nearly 30 years (LIC resident for the past six) and I can tell you that Guilianni was a big part in the turn around of this city (followed by Bloomberg). This writer certainly does NOT speak for all NYers!

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by fleonzo

That author is an idiot. I almost stopped reading when it said "and we survived....Guilianni..." What a complete dope! I've been in NYC for nearly 30 years (LIC resident for the past six) and I can tell you that Guilianni was a big part in the turn around of this city (followed by Bloomberg). This writer certainly does NOT speak for all NYers!

Do you estimate the author speaks for most or even a majority of New Yorkers? Guiliani is clearly a fuck face at this point. He's an incoherent pos like his boss now.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Do you estimate the author speaks for most or even a majority of New Yorkers? Guiliani is clearly a fuck face at this point. He's an incoherent pos like his boss now.

It's hard to believe given the Giuliani of 2018, but he really was a good mayor. The city turned around from really 60 years of stagnation, and later decline, under his mayoralty.

Yes, he cut crime, but there was much more.

Giuliani endorsed liberal Dems back then. He vociferously backed Mario Cuomo over George Pataki (a very liberal Rockefeller Republican). He publicly shacked up with his gay buddy after his divorce (platonic, of course). He dressed in drag, and did a gay shower scene, for a political event. He was anti-death penalty, pro-gay rights, pro-choice, pro-rent control, pro-welfare expansion, pro-sanctuary cities. He was basically the opposite of today.

I don't know what happened to him over the last 20 years. He's gone batshit insane, I guess, or made some bizarre political calculation. But NYC began its dramatic improvement under Giuliani, no question. He laid the foundation.

[fleonzo]

Originally Posted by Crawford

It's hard to believe given the Giuliani of 2018, but he really was a good mayor. The city turned around from really 60 years of stagnation, and later decline, under his mayoralty.

Yes, he cut crime, but there was much more.

Giuliani endorsed liberal Dems back then. He vociferously backed Mario Cuomo over George Pataki (a very liberal Rockefeller Republican). He publicly shacked up with his gay buddy after his divorce (platonic, of course). He dressed in drag, and did a gay shower scene, for a political event. He was anti-death penalty, pro-gay rights, pro-choice, pro-rent control, pro-welfare expansion, pro-sanctuary cities. He was basically the opposite of today.

I don't know what happened to him over the last 20 years. He's gone batshit insane, I guess, or made some bizarre political calculation. But NYC began its dramatic improvement under Giuliani, no question. He laid the foundation.

Crawford basically nailed it...pretty much summed up what I was going to post. Keep in mind that men tend to get grumpier as they get past 65 years of age. I see it in my father and father in law. They have less and less tolerance for anything or anyone.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by Crawford

It's hard to believe given the Giuliani of 2018, but he really was a good mayor. The city turned around from really 60 years of stagnation, and later decline, under his mayoralty.

Yes, he cut crime, but there was much more.

Giuliani endorsed liberal Dems back then. He vociferously backed Mario Cuomo over George Pataki (a very liberal Rockefeller Republican). He publicly shacked up with his gay buddy after his divorce (platonic, of course). He dressed in drag, and did a gay shower scene, for a political event. He was anti-death penalty, pro-gay rights, pro-choice, pro-rent control, pro-welfare expansion, pro-sanctuary cities. He was basically the opposite of today.

I don't know what happened to him over the last 20 years. He's gone batshit insane, I guess, or made some bizarre political calculation. But NYC began its dramatic improvement under Giuliani, no question. He laid the foundation.

I understand. I was referring to the current Guiliani, the raving lunatic.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

Can you please provide a link to these projects you speak of?

Sure:
https://siteselection.com/issues/2017/mar/southwest-louisiana-the-117-billion-dollar-region.cfm

Originally Posted by Crawford

Petrochemical plants are poison-spewing blights with minimal jobs and no spinoff effects. Louisiana has a horrible, no growth economy.

You're seriously comparing Amazon with Cancer Alley?

Oil, gas and chemical plants might not be as glitzy as a new office tower, but they sure as hell do create a lot of jobs and have spinoff effects. Also there's the fact that they're the backbone of the entire economy. Where do you think all the plastics come from that Amazon sells, where do you think all the energy comes from to deliver that stuff to your from door?

I doubt these new plants create as high of paying jobs as "HQ2", but they probably create higher paying jobs than your median Amazon jobs since most Amazon workers are low paid warehouse workers, not tech people. Also they're good blue collar jobs which are especially needed these days.

Originally Posted by chris08876

Newark NJ is a gold mine just waiting to be tapped. Ras Baraka has been good for business and is advocating for development; finally, somebody that gets it.

Newark has long had corrupt, poor leadership. I'm not saying Baraka will be the savior but the city needs a pro-development advocate. Somebody who at least is pragmatic with development.

Yeah, I just don't see it. Newark is like a tiny island of decent city surrounded by an ocean of ghettos. Every time I go there I feel like I'm driving through a war zone and all the violent crime alerts I get on my phone tell me I'm probably not far off in that assessment. I just can't see any reason that skilled workers would want to relocate to such a place when they have have the ability to locate anywhere they want and can easily find a better city. And I certainly don't find it likely that the local population is going to be filling many good jobs and they clearly don't have the skills needed to work such jobs and quite frankly a lot of them are the sort that have no intention of ever working a job at all.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Sure:
https://siteselection.com/issues/2017/mar/southwest-louisiana-the-117-billion-dollar-region.cfm
.

Thank you.

So a few things, as you already admitted:

1. The work isn't all that sexy. It's a lot of manual labor, and I'm willing to bet in the elements or not in facilities that are ideal in terms of working conditions.

2. It doesn't look like that investment will create nearly as many permanent jobs as Amazon HQ2, let alone the jobs Amazon will create indirectly from spinoff investment.

3. The average salary is lower than what Amazon will be paying its employees.

That's not to say it's not positive economic development, but it's simply not as transformative as what Amazon HQ2 is projected to be.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

2. It doesn't look it that investment will create nearly as many permanent jobs as Amazon HQ2, let alone the jobs Amazon will create indirectly from spinofd investment.

If you believe the 50,000 number then probably not. I personally find that number pretty unlikely though (especially in the near term).

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

3. The average salary is lower than what Amazon will be paying its employees.

Sure, but you don't have to live in an incredibly expensive city either. Anyways, my point isn't to say Amazon isn't a big deal, it's just to say the hype is vastly outsized. Also i'd push back a little on idea that Amazon jobs are so sexy. I certainly wouldn't want to be a lawyer, lobbyist, accountant or whatever else these jobs would be. Just because it's Amazon doesn't make the job an sexier than any other monotonous office job.

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

That's not to say it's not positive economic development, but it's simply not as transformative as what Amazon HQ2 is projected to be.

HQ2 is going to be a few new office buildings in a sea of office buildings. The average person won't know the difference.

[mrnyc]

more backlash:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/09/tech/amazon-hq2-progressive-backlash/index.html

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by jd3189

I know it’s been discussed already, but it’s ultimately dumb to consolidate all these companies into a few metro areas. I don’t believe for a fact that every tech person wants to live in just New York, Los Angeles, or San Francisco, especially when those are becoming more expensive.

I just think it's very economically inefficient to have this level of inequality. The top few cities get all the good jobs and everywhere else gets the scraps. The country would be far better served if everywhere could benefit from economic growth instead of just a handful of cities.

[k1052]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

more backlash:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/09/tech/amazon-hq2-progressive-backlash/index.html

Amazon could have very quietly negotiated sizable economic packages basically anywhere and not have this happen. The circus atmosphere they created around the selection is going to cause them problems. If the plan was to re-create most of the issues they have in Seattle then bravo I guess.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

It's hard to believe given the Giuliani of 2018, but he really was a good mayor. The city turned around from really 60 years of stagnation, and later decline, under his mayoralty.

Yes, he cut crime, but there was much more.

Giuliani endorsed liberal Dems back then. He vociferously backed Mario Cuomo over George Pataki (a very liberal Rockefeller Republican). He publicly shacked up with his gay buddy after his divorce (platonic, of course). He dressed in drag, and did a gay shower scene, for a political event. He was anti-death penalty, pro-gay rights, pro-choice, pro-rent control, pro-welfare expansion, pro-sanctuary cities. He was basically the opposite of today.

I don't know what happened to him over the last 20 years. He's gone batshit insane, I guess, or made some bizarre political calculation. But NYC began its dramatic improvement under Giuliani, no question. He laid the foundation.

giuliani did not cut crime. that is a common ny centric based fallacy. people in ny tend to live in a bubble, but crime dropped equally in all other major cities at that time as well. for a few example reasons the crack era was ending, the clinton era economy picked up and locally the silicon alley go go 90s were bustling.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

If you believe the 50,000 number then probably not. I personally find that number pretty unlikely though (especially in the near term).

Fair enough.

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Sure, but you don't have to live in an incredibly expensive city either. Anyways, my point isn't to say Amazon isn't a big deal, it's just to say the hype is vastly outsized. Also i'd push back a little on idea that Amazon jobs are so sexy. I certainly wouldn't want to be a lawyer, lobbyist, accountant or whatever else these jobs would be. Just because it's Amazon doesn't make the job an sexier than any other monotonous office job.

For the record, I DON'T think most people expected Amazon to go to 2 of the already most expensive cities in the country when their HQ2 search started, given the problems that are occurring in Seattle due to affordability. But most people obviously gave the once seemingly disruptive company way too much credit.

That being said, when I say "sexy," the context is referring to the overall desirability of the job. I get that the corporate office jobs aren't perfect and some people dislike them, but if you were to ask the average person, I'd venture to say they're strongly preferred over low skill/manual labor jobs. For starters, they offer a lot more potential for upward mobility in terms of income as well as connections. Also, office jobs are far less physically taxing on the body. I was raised in a blue collar (granted, union) household and it's depressing to see so many of my friends/family either disabled or constantly in a ton of pain after turning the age of 40 because they had no other option to earn a living besides going out everyday and working with heavy equipment or standing on their feet in extremely hot/cold warehouses for 12+ hours.

Originally Posted by BrownTown

HQ2 is going to be a few new office buildings in a sea of office buildings. The average person won't know the difference.

I think you're significantly downplaying the potential impact HQ2 could have on a community.

Having the 2nd largest and fastest growing tech company established in your city will lead to a ton of venture capital funds being injected into said community, which will pave the way for additional home grown startups to become successful. Other large tech companies will also want to be a part of that ecosystem Amazon would establish in order to poach talent (see Google's announcement to hire thoudands of tech employees in NYC following the HQ2 leak, for example). And that's not to mention the huge number of higher-end commercial establishments (hotels, restaurants, department stores, etc.) that cater to these high income individuals who will want to open in these communities, creating even more jobs and also boosting the quality of life of existing residents who will have a much better variety of establishments to spend money at.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by k1052

Amazon could have very quietly negotiated sizable economic packages basically anywhere and not have this happen. The circus atmosphere they created around the selection is going to cause them problems. If the plan was to re-create most of the issues they have in Seattle then bravo I guess.

totally agree its a media circus. from both amazon’s end and the hq2 cities end. not unexpected in ny the media capital where they are always desperate for content.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by k1052

If the plan was to re-create most of the issues they have in Seattle then bravo I guess.

I'd venture to say most cities would rather have Seattle's problems (growing pains) than the problem Rust Belt cities have (shrinking pains).

The fact that even a Rust Belt transplant in Seattle admitted as much in an article I posted earlier backs up my assumption.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

I'd venture to say most cities would rather have Seattle's problems (growing pains) than the problem Rust Belt cities have (shrinking pains).

The fact that even a Rust Belt transplant in Seattle admitted as much in an article I posted earlier backs up my assumption.

Of course in theory they could hit two birds with one stone by relocating to the rust belt and then neither city would have pains since they'd both be the right size.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Of course in theory they could hit two birds with one stone by relocating to the rust belt and then neither city would have pains since they'd both be the right size.

I think that's what a lot of people were pulling for Amazon to do.

Oh well.