The Metro Vancouver Real Estate Thread

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by rofina

There is always a reason to not buy.

I totally agree the numbers are stacked in favour of prices to continue down.

But Its humorous what when prices are up 18% YoY pundits come out and say not to buy, its too hot. And then the following year they're up 12%. Still to hot though.

Now prices are down, maybe 5, 10, 15%, pundits come out and say don't buy, its like catching a falling knife.

I understand the desire for a getting the best possible price, but whats the answer here? Wait for the 50% collapse like some have been since 2006?

And again - not saying prices aren't trending down, they clearly are, and I think odds are in favour they will continue to do so for a couple years.

Even with that fact - you buy today, under asking, something you can afford to hold for 10 years. I cant believe that on a 10 year time frame it doesn't turn into a win.

EDIT: From personal experience, I "caught a falling knife" in 2009 with my first condo. 2 years of lower assessments left me in the red because of my tiny down payment at the time.
Now 9, almost 10 years on its doubled in price. So overall it turned out quite alright.

Crystal balls are tricky to read, but Vancouver has a pretty phenomenal decade over decade record.

Except 2009 was the beginning of exceptionally low credit and in the middle of Chinese capital outflows. Both are unlikely to be repeated in the foreseeable future. I worry we have a lot of youngsters like misher who think the state of the market 2009-2017 was "normal".


Vancouver’s condo market continued its downwards trend in the month of October. This should generally come as no surprise considering Real Estate markets are incredibly slow moving and are highly dependant on the availability of mortgage credit. In other words, this trend is likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future unless we see a shift in either domestic credit, (mortgage credit growth is currently at its weakest pace of growth in 18 years), or we see large capital outflows from China. This seems unlikely given their need to maintain capital reserves in order to fight a trade war and growing economic instability and slowing real estate market...

...As is typical in all real estate markets, sales volumes lead prices. This is generally a result of market exhaustion and an adjustment phase were both sellers and buyers hold out, with sellers trying to maintain current prices and buyers holding out anticipating future price declines. Sales volumes in Vancouver’s condo market ultimately peaked out in the spring of 2016, it is only now where are seeing some movement on prices.

The average sold price per square foot peaked in January at $1124/sq ft and has now dipped to $1016. While there is no perfect measure to gauge price movements, both the average and median sales price are also showing declines from their peaks earlier this year....

https://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-condo-sales-drop-october-2012/