O-Train Line 2/4 [Stage 2 | Greenboro to Limebank/Airport] | In Service

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

This points to the need to look at things differently. It used to be that pulp and paper workers were also heavy users of transit.

1) We aren't going to run out of public servants any time soon.

2) As long as orleans is cheaper than the rest of the city and we pay our public servants about what they make right now, Orleans will have a higher share of them.

3) The federal government is not going to start providing parking suddenly reversing decades of standing policy on this. Heck, a few years back there was talk of free parking on military bases being recognized as an unpaid benefit for us. This on rural bases where public transport is scarce. I can actually see a policy in next 3-5 years where whatever parking is provided by the feds in Ottawa is reserved exclusively for electric cars.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by roger1818

That is part of it, yes. Another part is that Orleans is closer to downtown than Kanata and Barrhaven. Also, Kanata at least, has more local employment opportunities, so fewer are commuting to downtown.

True as well. I think Barrhaven might actually even have more local employment than Orleans does. Or at least more in the immediate vicinity anyway.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

@roger1818 @lrt's friend

It's quite simple. If you guys are right, ridership should not recover to pre-construction levels in 2019. No weaseling out by citing "other factors". Have some cojones and place your bets now.

What metric and source of statistics do you propose we use? I suggest we use AM peak period ridership, but I am not sure where we can get reliable stats.

Also, the whole "people trying it out" thing is not going to get ridership above 100 million. The novelty of the ride wears out in less than a week.

Not everyone is going to rush out and ride it on day 1. It may take a month or two. As for how much effect it will have, it is hard to say, but if we use AM peak it should eliminate most of the affect (unless you believe you need all the help you can get. ).

I am quite confident that ridership will be going back up. With any luck, we might be back up over 100 million, since 2019 will be the only year with not LRT construction and bus diversions.

In time, yes, but I don't think we will see sudden changes in commuter behaviour overnight. I don't think anyone will immediately start or stop taking transit because of LRT. It will be a catalyst for change, but people are skeptical.

And I don't buy the thesis that people love single-seat rides so much that they'll resort to driving once they end. Even with the transfer, the LRT will be both faster and cheaper than their car during rush.

I never said that. I said it was a factor in us getting the modal share we have today. We don't have the roads or parking for those people to change behaviour even if they wanted to. Similarly, those who have a car and a parking spot won't suddenly abandon them because of LRT.

As to this argument about why reward ridership? Because any planner will tell you, the first goal is always to keep what you have. And having a system verging on utter failure thanks to bus congestion was not going to keep the ridership we had. Next, a higher modal share often means that your investments in that area will actually be rewarded with increased ridership. It's very rare to see modal share fall after investing in an area with high mode share to begin with. On the other hand, it's actually a risk that places not used to taking transit could avoid taking up transit after investment, because existing patterns are hard to break.

I don't see it as rewarding ridership. I see it as keeping your existing customer base happy. It is cheaper and easier to keep an existing customer than it is to find a new one.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Acajack

True as well. I think Barrhaven might actually even have more local employment than Orleans does. Or at least more in the immediate vicinity anyway.

And many who live in Barrhaven work in Kanata as it is an easy commute (by car at least).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by roger1818

And many who live in Barrhaven work in Kanata as it is an easy commute (by car at least).

Yeah, and the advantage of that over Orleans is that if you're going to an non-downtown employment centre in east end Ottawa (St Laurent or Blair, for example), you're still fighting the same traffic war as everyone trying to get downtown and points west.

Whereas Barrhaven to Kanata, though it can be busy at times, is nowhere near as nightmarish.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

@roger1818 @lrt's friend

It's quite simple. If you guys are right, ridership should not recover to pre-construction levels in 2019. No weaseling out by citing "other factors". Have some cojones and place your bets now. Also, the whole "people trying it out" thing is not going to get ridership above 100 million. The novelty of the ride wears out in less than a week.

I am quite confident that ridership will be going back up. With any luck, we might be back up over 100 million, since 2019 will be the only year with not LRT construction and bus diversions. And I don't buy the thesis that people love single-seat rides so much that they'll resort to driving once they end. Even with the transfer, the LRT will be both faster and cheaper than their car during rush.

As to this argument about why reward ridership? Because any planner will tell you, the first goal is always to keep what you have. And having a system verging on utter failure thanks to bus congestion was not going to keep the ridership we had. Next, a higher modal share often means that your investments in that area will actually be rewarded with increased ridership. It's very rare to see modal share fall after investing in an area with high mode share to begin with. On the other hand, it's actually a risk that places not used to taking transit could avoid taking up transit after investment, because existing patterns are hard to break.

We cannot just 'reward' existing riders. If that were the case, we would just keep upgrading what we have and never build to anybody else. Doesn't this limit ridership growth potential? I would say so. Orleans is not the only growth point in our city. And it is funny how we neglect riders in the city centre.

I would like to know what city is just building to existing high modal share areas.
Most cities are building to new areas not previously served by rapid transit.
Look at Montreal, Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver. They are all doing it. Everybody knows that to grow ridership and improve your transit system, you need to expand service broadly. There needs to be more spokes and new cross connections. Our cities are growing and there is a need for better transit connections throughout, not to one or two chosen neighbourhoods. Otherwise, Toronto would build a second Yonge subway, one block away.

Sure, we need to protect the existing market and if it makes sense, we should upgrade service. But there needs to be real goals. Service needs to be improved. We don't build multi-billion dollar LRT lines to deliver the same or worse service. Furthermore, there is a saturation point. If we have already got most of those federal public servants on board. What are we going to gain? Not much.

Lower modal share is an indication that there may be pent up demand especially if existing service is slow. Of course, there are other factors such as a local job base. But is that stopping us from building out to Kanata as soon as possible?

At some point, we need to look at the gaps in service and fill those in. We shouldn't expect people to take long bus rides to LRT. That is exactly why the Green Line is being built in Calgary. Meanwhile Calgary is also building a BRT network that will create those cross connections that every bigger city transit system needs. What is Ottawa doing? Implementing a frequent service network that is no better than what existed before.

We will see if we are back to 100 million riders anytime soon. I figure that with our student pass program, we have lost far more adult riders than the figures suggest on first glance and that spells trouble in the long run. And no sooner do we have Phase 1 open, that construction begins that will continue to delay transit, east, west and south on almost every rapid transit route. How does that grow ridership?

[lrt's friend]

3) The federal government is not going to start providing parking suddenly reversing decades of standing policy on this. Heck, a few years back there was talk of free parking on military bases being recognized as an unpaid benefit for us. This on rural bases where public transport is scarce. I can actually see a policy in next 3-5 years where whatever parking is provided by the feds in Ottawa is reserved exclusively for electric cars.

Heaven help us. The federal parking policy is bizarre in a way. It is just a financial penalty in suburban locations. People are not going to take transit 90 minutes in order to avoid parking fees, at least not many. And on electric cars, this penalizes people who travel the longest distances, when parking is needed the most. I really think an electric car based policy is using a sledge hammer to impose green energy policies. There are far more effective and fair ways to encourage people to generate less greenhouse gases.

[orleans_man]

I don't think the justification for going "East" ahead of Kanata/Barrhaven" has anything to do with attracting new ridership.

The city's approach is driven by two key things in my opinion:

1) Alleviating the coming failure in transitway capacity in the downtown core
2) Operational Savings

To continue with a “Business as Usual” approach to transit will result in unsustainable
cost escalations. By converting to LRT, our redesigned transit system will save the City
up to $100 million in annual operating costs as of its first year of service. These
savings will continue to grow over time, ensuring public transit remains affordable.

By extending to Orleans first, you reduce a larger number of existing buses/costs than you would to any other suburb. Also, as mentioned it is the closest geographically, therefore theoretically the cheapest to reach. Resulting in more savings sooner for the overall system... again in theory.

Most people in Orleans are well served by the current model and will not see improved service in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 (at least in terms of time given the new transfer) - although system reliability should be improved. Also, there is the opportunity for service improvements throughout the system should the city decide that that is a financial priority. We will see...

I will personally miss my single bus downtown in less than 35 minutes, but recognize the system has to evolve.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by orleans_man

I don't think the justification for going "East" ahead of Kanata/Barrhaven" has anything to do with attracting new ridership.

The city's approach is driven by two key things in my opinion:

1) Alleviating the coming failure in transitway capacity in the downtown core
2) Operational Savings

To continue with a “Business as Usual” approach to transit will result in unsustainable
cost escalations. By converting to LRT, our redesigned transit system will save the City
up to $100 million in annual operating costs as of its first year of service. These
savings will continue to grow over time, ensuring public transit remains affordable.

By extending to Orleans first, you reduce a larger number of existing buses/costs than you would to any other suburb. Also, as mentioned it is the closest geographically, therefore theoretically the cheapest to reach. Resulting in more savings sooner for the overall system... again in theory.

Most people in Orleans are well served by the current model and will not see improved service in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 (at least in terms of time given the new transfer) - although system reliability should be improved. Also, there is the opportunity for service improvements throughout the system should the city decide that that is a financial priority. We will see...

I will personally miss my single bus downtown in less than 35 minutes, but recognize the system has to evolve.

This goes back to my point. You invest in places with high ridership first. They would not have had the same operational savings had they chosen to go West. The system's financial stability and sustainability improves by building higher order transit where there is high ridership. Especially high ridership that is largely being moved on buses 50 pax at a time.

Orleans had high ridership and was close to downtown. That makes for any amazing combination where switching to LRT is concerned.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

We cannot just 'reward' existing riders. If that were the case, we would just keep upgrading what we have and never build to anybody else. Doesn't this limit ridership growth potential? I would say so. Orleans is not the only growth point in our city. And it is funny how we neglect riders in the city centre.

I would like to know what city is just building to existing high modal share areas.

Places without real political interference. If Toronto had the choice, they'd be building the DRL over the Scarborough subway as an example. The LRT corridors picked for Transit City were all based on very high ridership bus/streetcar routes.

Most cities are building to new areas not previously served by rapid transit.
Look at Montreal, Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver. They are all doing it. Everybody knows that to grow ridership and improve your transit system, you need to expand service broadly. There needs to be more spokes and new cross connections. Our cities are growing and there is a need for better transit connections throughout, not to one or two chosen neighbourhoods. Otherwise, Toronto would build a second Yonge subway, one block away.

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Sure, we need to protect the existing market and if it makes sense, we should upgrade service. But there needs to be real goals. Service needs to be improved. We don't build multi-billion dollar LRT lines to deliver the same or worse service. Furthermore, there is a saturation point. If we have already got most of those federal public servants on board. What are we going to gain? Not much.

How are people not getting this? We didn't build a multi-billion dollar LRT for "the same service". We built it to have > 20 000 pphpd. That is a massive increase in throughput. The city was effectively capped out on the BRT.

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Lower modal share is an indication that there may be pent up demand especially if existing service is slow. Of course, there are other factors such as a local job base. But is that stopping us from building out to Kanata as soon as possible?

The plan is a pretty straightforward conversion of the Transitway to LRT. And the corridor already has thousands of pphpd. It's perfectly sensible to convert it. What's debatable are some of the Stage 3 plans.

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

At some point, we need to look at the gaps in service and fill those in. We shouldn't expect people to take long bus rides to LRT.

The majority of residents will be within 5 km of the LRT. That's about a 20 min bus ride. This is pretty much the same for most of Toronto. If you're expecting to get metro service to within a km of your house, I don't know what to tell you....

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

That is exactly why the Green Line is being built in Calgary. Meanwhile Calgary is also building a BRT network that will create those cross connections that every bigger city transit system needs. What is Ottawa doing? Implementing a frequent service network that is no better than what existed before.

And yet Calgary has lower modal share than Ottawa. If their system is so great, why is nobody riding it? Their mode share would have to grow by over 27% to match Ottawa:

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/as-sa/98-200-x/2016029/98-200-x2016029-eng.cfm

Even on total annual ridership. They are only 5.6% ahead. During a time when our system faces massive disruption.

So please stop with the nonsense about us being so terrible at transit. I'd say they have a few lessons they could learn from us.

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

We will see if we are back to 100 million riders anytime soon. I figure that with our student pass program, we have lost far more adult riders than the figures suggest on first glance and that spells trouble in the long run. And no sooner do we have Phase 1 open, that construction begins that will continue to delay transit, east, west and south on almost every rapid transit route. How does that grow ridership?

Construction doesn't start still Spring 2020. And if we launch in early 2019, that's just under a full year without construction. We'll get to see how people adjust to the LRT. I doubt we'll get over 100 million. But I think we'll see a strong uptrend. And the good part about Stage 2, is that, with the exception of the full Trillium Line closure, other riders aren't as impacted as they were in Stage 1.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

What metric and source of statistics do you propose we use? I suggest we use AM peak period ridership, but I am not sure where we can get reliable stats.

It's why I like to use total annual ridership and average weekday ridership that OC Transpo puts out. It gives you a decent gauge of trends.

Originally Posted by roger1818

Not everyone is going to rush out and ride it on day 1. It may take a month or two. As for how much effect it will have, it is hard to say, but if we use AM peak it should eliminate most of the affect (unless you believe you need all the help you can get. )

You can see the effect of construction by comparing OC Transpo 2015 and 2016. 10 000 less average weekday riders. Even if they maintained the same annual ridership. I want to see how much of that is ameliorated by the launch of the LRT.

Originally Posted by roger1818

In time, yes, but I don't think we will see sudden changes in commuter behaviour overnight. I don't think anyone will immediately start or stop taking transit because of LRT. It will be a catalyst for change, but people are skeptical.

The bulk of riders are taking buses today. They just get switched over to trams. The ones you will see returning are the ones who were severely impacted the construction and simply found it easier to drive. Hopefully, they'll be coming back.

Originally Posted by roger1818

I never said that. I said it was a factor in us getting the modal share we have today. We don't have the roads or parking for those people to change behaviour even if they wanted to. Similarly, those who have a car and a parking spot won't suddenly abandon them because of LRT.

I think there's a decent chunk of lost ridership that put up with driving because of construction. Once the LRT launches and they have a decent transit ride again, they'll be passing on driving.

Originally Posted by roger1818

I don't see it as rewarding ridership. I see it as keeping your existing customer base happy. It is cheaper and easier to keep an existing customer than it is to find a new one.

All depends on how you look at it. I see investing tens or hundreds of millions in a community for higher order transit as a reward.

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Places without real political interference. If Toronto had the choice, they'd be building the DRL over the Scarborough subway as an example. The LRT corridors picked for Transit City were all based on very high ridership bus/streetcar routes.

Most cities are building to new areas not previously served by rapid transit.
Look at Montreal, Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver. They are all doing it. Everybody knows that to grow ridership and improve your transit system, you need to expand service broadly. There needs to be more spokes and new cross connections. Our cities are growing and there is a need for better transit connections throughout, not to one or two chosen neighbourhoods. Otherwise, Toronto would build a second Yonge subway, one block away.




How are people not getting this? We didn't build a multi-billion dollar LRT for "the same service". We built it to have > 20 000 pphpd. That is a massive increase in throughput. The city was effectively capped out on the BRT.



The plan is a pretty straightforward conversion of the Transitway to LRT. And the corridor already has thousands of pphpd. It's perfectly sensible to convert it. What's debatable are some of the Stage 3 plans.



The majority of residents will be within 5 km of the LRT. That's about a 20 min bus ride. This is pretty much the same for most of Toronto. If you're expecting to get metro service to within a km of your house, I don't know what to tell you....



And yet Calgary has lower modal share than Ottawa. If their system is so great, why is nobody riding it? Their mode share would have to grow by over 27% to match Ottawa:

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/as-sa/98-200-x/2016029/98-200-x2016029-eng.cfm

Even on total annual ridership. They are only 5.6% ahead. During a time when our system faces massive disruption.

So please stop with the nonsense about us being so terrible at transit. I'd say they have a few lessons they could learn from us.



Construction doesn't start still Spring 2020. And if we launch in early 2019, that's just under a full year without construction. We'll get to see how people adjust to the LRT. I doubt we'll get over 100 million. But I think we'll see a strong uptrend. And the good part about Stage 2, is that, with the exception of the full Trillium Line closure, other riders aren't as impacted as they were in Stage 1.

Whoa where did you get the idea construction would start in 2020. Baseline BRT will start in 2020 but stage 2 construction will start in 2019 so there wont be much time to adjust to LRT before the next phase of construction begins.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

Whoa where did you get the idea construction would start in 2020. Baseline BRT will start in 2020 but stage 2 construction will start in 2019 so there wont be much time to adjust to LRT before the next phase of construction begins.

First, with the tender being delayed, we should expect delays in the start of construction. Regardless of what they say.

Second, construction starting in 2019 doesn't mean any real impactful closures on transit. A lot of that will be prep work or the beginnings of long lead projects like the tunnel to Richmond.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

Whoa where did you get the idea construction would start in 2020. Baseline BRT will start in 2020 but stage 2 construction will start in 2019 so there wont be much time to adjust to LRT before the next phase of construction begins.

Preliminary construction begins in 2019, but the Trillium line won't be shut down until April 2020 (after exams are finished).

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Preliminary construction begins in 2019, but the Trillium line won't be shut down until April 2020 (after exams are finished).

Construction on Trillium Line Phase 2 will have to start in 2019 if there is any hope of it opening by September 2021. This has nothing to do with the existing section to close in April 2020. But the more I think about it, the more you have to wonder about this schedule. There is a lot of work to be done in just 2 years.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's why I like to use total annual ridership and average weekday ridership that OC Transpo puts out. It gives you a decent gauge of trends.

But AM peak ridership gives you the best measure of commuter usage, which are the bread and butter. Capacity issues aren't a problem evenings and weekends, so if they go up, that is most likely just people just trying out the train and the gains won't be sustainable.

You can see the effect of construction by comparing OC Transpo 2015 and 2016. 10 000 less average weekday riders. Even if they maintained the same annual ridership. I want to see how much of that is ameliorated by the launch of the LRT.

Do you have links for those stats? Not that I don't beleive you, just I haven't seen them.

Weekday ridership would be better than annual ridership, but not as good as AM peak.

The bulk of riders are taking buses today. They just get switched over to trams. The ones you will see returning are the ones who were severely impacted the construction and simply found it easier to drive. Hopefully, they'll be coming back.

I think there's a decent chunk of lost ridership that put up with driving because of construction. Once the LRT launches and they have a decent transit ride again, they'll be passing on driving.

I agree that most likely most that are currently taking the bus will start taking the train. I don't share you optimism about those who started driving because of the construction. That switch usually involves buying a car (or a second one), and it is unlikely they will all decide to sell it overnight. It will probably take time to win them back.

All depends on how you look at it. I see investing tens or hundreds of millions in a community for higher order transit as a reward.

You are entitled to your opinion.

[lrt's friend]

The majority of residents will be within 5 km of the LRT. That's about a 20 min bus ride. This is pretty much the same for most of Toronto. If you're expecting to get metro service to within a km of your house, I don't know what to tell you....

I have told you this before. I live within 5 km of the Trillium Line but realistically, it is a 40 minute bus ride to usable LRT. This will not change whether Phase 1, 2 or 3 and there is good modal share in this part of the city so stop with that reward nonsense.

And yet Calgary has lower modal share than Ottawa. If their system is so great, why is nobody riding it? Their mode share would have to grow by over 27% to match Ottawa:

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...016029-eng.cfm

Even on total annual ridership. They are only 5.6% ahead. During a time when our system faces massive disruption.

So please stop with the nonsense about us being so terrible at transit. I'd say they have a few lessons they could learn from us.

Could it be that Calgary Transit bus network is not that great? Could it be about the last mile problem that is a problem with rail transit everywhere?

However, it is also true that Calgary's modal share has been increasing, Vancouver's modal share has passed Ottawa while Ottawa has been falling.

Ottawa's problems are more than the current disruption. We also had a pointless strike that drove away riders, a service optimization that drove more away and the silent service reductions, round after round of them. Why run two buses, when we could substitute one artic or double-decker. Oh by the way, that means frequency will be cut.

We need to stop resting on laurels when clearly our transit system is deteriorating. I have studied and used Ottawa transit for over 40 years. I have seen the deterioration. We should never be satisfied with the status quo. We deserve more when we are spending billions.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by orleans_man

I don't think the justification for going "East" ahead of Kanata/Barrhaven" has anything to do with attracting new ridership.

I whole heatedly agree. There might be some room for growth, but there isn't much low hanging fruit.

The city's approach is driven by two key things in my opinion:

1) Alleviating the coming failure in transitway capacity in the downtown core
2) Operational Savings

I agree, but there are two more:

1. Orleans is closer to downtown, and thus cheaper to build.
2. Issues negotiating with the NCC on land use prevented extending much beyond Tunnies Pasture for stage 1, so building much beyond Baseline and Moodie would be biting off a bit too much, especially with extensions in 2 other directions.

To continue with a “Business as Usual” approach to transit will result in unsustainable
cost escalations. By converting to LRT, our redesigned transit system will save the City
up to $100 million in annual operating costs as of its first year of service. These
savings will continue to grow over time, ensuring public transit remains affordable.

By extending to Orleans first, you reduce a larger number of existing buses/costs than you would to any other suburb. Also, as mentioned it is the closest geographically, therefore theoretically the cheapest to reach. Resulting in more savings sooner for the overall system... again in theory.

For the extension to Place d'Orleans, I agree. For the further extension to Trim, there won't be any money saved for a long time. Depending on the service level, the operational costs might even cost more than having bus service because of the low demand between the last two stations will result in train frequencies being the same or higher than bus frequencies.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Construction on Trillium Line Phase 2 will have to start in 2019 if there is any hope of it opening by September 2021. This has nothing to do with the existing section to close in April 2020. But the more I think about it, the more you have to wonder about this schedule. There is a lot of work to be done in just 2 years.

Not necessarily. The last parts of the transitway (Tunney's) closed a year and a half ago and there was much more work to be done in that case.

The extension (South Keys and southwards) can begin construction immediately.

For the rest: the biggest parts of the Trillium Line upgrade are the grade separation at Ellwood, Gladstone station (and Walkley I suppose?) and the modifications to Bayview for the second platform. Those should definitely be doable in 16 months. Everything else is trivial, relatively speaking.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

Not necessarily. The last parts of the transitway (Tunney's) closed a year and a half ago and there was much more work to be done in that case.

The extension (South Keys and southwards) can begin construction immediately.

For the rest: the biggest parts of the Trillium Line upgrade are the grade separation at Ellwood, Gladstone station (and Walkley I suppose?) and the modifications to Bayview for the second platform. Those should definitely be doable in 16 months. Everything else is trivial, relatively speaking.

Just remember we will need new grade separations at Lester, Leitrim, Earl Armstrong, Bowesville, and Limebank Roads and Uplands Drive and a new bridge at Hunt Club Road. That is a lot of work.